How bad can things possibly get here?

paulieeye · 21-04-2011 01:56PM #1

Hi folks,

Was talking about the economy the other day and the topic came up of how bad things could realistically and also potentially get.

What are your views on this? How bad could this country get..what is the very very worst case? All banks go bust..etc What would the effects be for the normal guy on the street, complete lack of social welfare..etc?

greendom · 21-04-2011 07:13PM

paulieeye wrote: »

Hi folks,

Was talking about the economy the other day and the topic came up of how bad things could realistically and also potentially get.

What are your views on this? How bad could this country get..what is the very very worst case? All banks go bust..etc What would the effects be for the normal guy on the street, complete lack of social welfare..etc?

That sounds pretty bad alright

jakdelad · 21-04-2011 09:15PM

paulieeye wrote: »

Hi folks,

Was talking about the economy the other day and the topic came up of how bad things could realistically and also potentially get.

What are your views on this? How bad could this country get..what is the very very worst case? All banks go bust..etc What would the effects be for the normal guy on the street, complete lack of social welfare..etc?

start digging the pit fill it with water n beans
start watching bear grylls
lock n load buy a good skinning knife
get some flares a radio lots of coffe [not the aldi sh1te]
loo rolls condoms[well you never know]
a buy n sell
sit tight suck a sweet and watch for movement
this is gonna get ugly ......

loldog · 21-04-2011 09:15PM

One of the roles of a Central Bank, as I understand it, is to regulate the Money Supply. So, it's in the hands of the ECB to ensure that this kind of crisis doesn't happen. Such a scenario would be a death-blow to the euro, they're not going to let that happen.

If Ireland is struggling to pay the debt FF assumed on our behalf, then we're going to have some kind of rescheduling/restructuring like the Young Plan.

In other words, don't worry about it. It's their problem as much as ours.

.

Delancey · 21-04-2011 09:30PM

Everyone has a different opinion on how things will develop , my own guess is that while our export based companies will perform very well I think the domestic or ' real ' economy will stagnate and the strong export performance will not be able to make up for this - unemployment and emigration will rise , confidence will remain low and will not be helped by increases in overt as well as ' stealth ' taxes.

The banks will remain solvent thanks to the taxpayer bailout , whether businesses and consumers will continue to have problems accessing credit may prove to be a moot point - I'm not convinced that the demand for credit will be strong given the very low level of confidence.

Mass disorder ? Despite all the stories on boards of the government and security forces preparing for a doomsday scenario I reckon that though a few protests will get out of hand we will not see tanks / armoured cars on the streets ( something which will surely disappoint the doommongers out there ) .

Solnskaya · 21-04-2011 10:51PM

My predictions:
1. average house price- 90k.
2. Interest rates, 12%
3.Social welfare, avg €100 / wk
4.Unemployment, 18%
4.Emmigration, rampant.
4.Lots of older cars, lots of house repossessions, lots of low level crime.
5.Lots of formerly public assets in foreign, private ownership
6.Loopy levels of taxation
7.Large black economy
Don't see a rosy future for the auld sod. And no, I'm not unemployed, no I don't have a mortgage, and no im not a left winger. Scoffy will be along shortly to tell you just how wrong I am and how good things will turn out.

hinault · 21-04-2011 11:13PM

I think things will get worse generally.

I think property prices have some way to fall yet.
I think unemployment will remain static or increase slightly. I cannot see unemployment falling because there is no growth in the industry's which can generate short/medium term employment.
I think emigration will be a fact of life for the best part of the next decade.

The debt burden - banking debt, fiscal debt, personal debt - is huge and it is the over riding factor that will prevent things getting better here.

ilovesleep · 22-04-2011 08:08AM

Solnskaya wrote: »

4.Lots of older cars,

Wrong about that one! The NCT won't allow it.

robtri · 22-04-2011 08:11AM

ilovesleep wrote: »

Wrong about that one! The NCT won't allow it.

why the NCT doesnt Ban older cars.....

GSF · 22-04-2011 08:18AM

if things get REALLY bad, people might even take the bus. Or walk, or cycle! :eek:

Mr Benevolent · 22-04-2011 08:33AM

Put it like this... three months ago 100 of us were hired and now we're told our jobs can easily be transferred to Manila.

super_furry · 22-04-2011 08:34AM

As long as there's King Crisps, Brennans bread and Dutch Gold, we'll be grand.

Relax the cacks.

stovelid · 22-04-2011 09:50AM

Solnskaya wrote: »

Lots of older cars,.

GOOD LORD NO!!!!!

whiteonion · 22-04-2011 10:06AM

paulieeye wrote: »

Hi folks,

Was talking about the economy the other day and the topic came up of how bad things could realistically and also potentially get.

What are your views on this? How bad could this country get..what is the very very worst case? All banks go bust..etc What would the effects be for the normal guy on the street, complete lack of social welfare..etc?

Well in Latvia just a couple of years ago the austerity measures were so severe that you had old people going out on the streets begging. I will expect IMF to slash all sorts of heating allowance for old people. I expect to hear plenty of reports of old people freezing to death in their houses in the years to come.

bonerm · 22-04-2011 10:09AM

paulieeye wrote: »

Hi folks,

Was talking about the economy the other day and the topic came up of how bad things could realistically and also potentially get.

We're just at the tip of the icepop. The worst is yet to come.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3ZOKDmorj0

holystungun9 · 22-04-2011 10:13AM

GSF wrote: »

if things get REALLY bad, people might even take the bus. Or walk, or cycle! :eek:

Oh dear lord, it's worse than I thought!!

Solnskaya · 22-04-2011 10:32AM

whiteonion wrote: »

Well in Latvia just a couple of years ago the austerity measures were so severe that you had old people going out on the streets begging. I will expect IMF to slash all sorts of heating allowance for old people. I expect to hear plenty of reports of old people freezing to death in their houses in the years to come.

we can just do what the govt has done for the last ten years, and burn money to keep them warm(at least I think they were burning it, sure how else could you get rid of so much in so short a time?)-

CrazyRabbit · 22-04-2011 10:59AM

There is no recession. It's just that the economy has returned to the way it was before the boom of the 90's.

Tigger · 22-04-2011 11:07AM

Is tat firekitten's avatar?

Shulgin · 22-04-2011 11:08AM

There will be a major uprising when enough people feel the squeeze. Hopefully this will happen before the vultures take all of our state assets to pay for rich gambler's debts.

Chuck Stone · 22-04-2011 11:09AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOuQPZqcEbk

Mr Benevolent · 22-04-2011 11:17AM

Shulgin wrote: »

There will be a major uprising when enough people feel the squeeze. Hopefully this will happen before the vultures take all of our state assets to pay for rich gambler's debts.

People have said this a million times before, and it never happens. We're apathetic as a country.

Messi2 · 22-04-2011 11:23AM

The sun will still rise in the east and set in the west, and life will go on.

Orando Broom · 22-04-2011 11:25AM

I can see a lot of Restaurants losing a michelin star. A lot of golf clubs will have to dramatically lower their prices thus losing their all important exclusivity. Rabble will roam the courses unfettered. I would imagine people will have to cut back on weekend breaks and the ski holiday will be a thing of the past. Not as many people will have shares in racehorses.

Shulgin · 22-04-2011 11:25AM

Confab wrote: »

People have said this a million times before, and it never happens. We're apathetic as a country.

Most people are still living pretty comfortably, Still living on the last remaining illusions of the 'celtic tiger', when that illusion fades away enough then so will the apathy. It is a ticking timebomb.

gbee · 22-04-2011 11:49AM

With a few exceptions, one would see no difference in the average long term SW recipient or indeed the spending power of the average CS as all have black economy activities on the side.

As you know, the Gardai want in on this action as they are the only CS that cannot take part time jobs.

In an ironic way, the BEST thing for this county is to default. We are only supporting a monopolistic regime in paying in paying our way and we are paying to be suppressed ~ madness.

TheZohanS · 22-04-2011 11:54AM

CrazyRabbit wrote: »

There is no recession. It's just that the economy has returned to the way it was before the boom if the 90's.

There are a couple of things wrong with that statement.

iamstop · 22-04-2011 12:10PM

Bread rations,
Telescreens,
Big Brother,
Gin rations
Ministry for Education
Ministry for Sex
Double Speak
The bells of St. Clement's

super_furry · 22-04-2011 12:20PM

Minsitry for Sex you say?

Pauleta · 22-04-2011 12:26PM

Worst case scenario is the garda, army, social welfare and all civil servants will go unpaid. The people will get out onto the streets and riot and with no garda or army around, carnage will ensue, feeding into the hands of loons like Joe Higgin and Sinn Fein to start an unelected socialist country.

Duckworth_Luas · 22-04-2011 12:33PM

super_furry wrote: »

Minsitry for Sex you say?

But with Mary Harney as Minster for Sex.

How bad can things possibly get here?

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