The Rise and Rise of Sinn Fein

th3 s1aught3r

Do ye think that Sinn Fein could become a major force in Irish politics in the future. Unbelievably they are close to the seats of FF
Or is this election about as good as it gets for them ?

johngalway

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Do ye think that Sinn Fein could become a major force in Irish politics in the future. Unbelievably they are close to the seats of FF
Or is this election about as good as it gets for them ?

They rise in bad times, fall in good times. That's my prediction.

Ruire

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Do ye think that Sinn Fein could become a major force in Irish politics in the future. Unbelievably they are close to the seats of FF
Or is this election about as good as it gets for them ?

Even the PDs had 14 seats once.

Sundy

I think to get more of the moderate vote they would have to drop alot of the republican element of the party.

People dont like voting for a party that supports terrorists and garda murderers.

I think that SF will be there or abouts as the main opposition party this time but after a while their policies will be become evident as what they are - empty, hollow unrealistic promises.

SF to have a good 3 year period then fall into the back benches and eventually lose their seats next time around.

johngalway

Deleted User wrote: »

I think that SF will be there or abouts as the main opposition party this time

If we say FG/Lab form the Govt, then FF are expected to get 19/20 seats and SF 15. Also, there are Independents out there who will, eventually, join/rejoin FF. My thoughts are FF will be the main opposition party, not by much, but true going on those numbers.

th3 s1aught3r

Sundy wrote: »

I think to get more of the moderate vote they would have to drop alot of the republican element of the party.

People dont like voting for a party that supports terrorists and garda murderers.

They need to drop Gerry Adams if they want to make in roads

Lawrence1895

Sundy wrote: »

I think to get more of the moderate vote they would have to drop alot of the republican element of the party.

People dont like voting for a party that supports terrorists and garda murderers.

Sinn Fein would even get more votes, if there were less people with an attitude like that. In my opinion, Sinn Fein are more and more on the way to distance themselves from the dark past, so why is it so hard to give them a fair chance to prove themselves?

mohawk

I hope this is just a once off. Their flag waving kinda annoys me. I can understand why they wave the tricolor in NI but why are they doing it here? When you take out their recent history I still wouldn't vote for then because their economic policies are ridiculous.

Fr Tod Umptious

Their economic policies are not realistic, therefore they will never be a force

mike65

It depends if their current success attracts more "up the 'ra" barstool merchants, I think they will have the FF working class vote for quite some time, esp in Dublin. Gerry Adams is an issue for the party (someone will be on here soon to tell me to fck off back home and that Adams is here for life).

GSF

better hope SF dont propose a tax on internet connections (since their still relatively small voter base seem to spend most of their time online)

Pal

Can't trust them.

Why don't they disband the IRA ?

Why can't they come up with some economic policy that makes sense ?

Raiding the pension fund is just daft.

Biggins

I entered this thread thinking it was a discussion about their rise - its not - its just another thread about bashing them.
Thread title then misleading (through no fault of the OP).

nacho libre

Left-wing parties tend do well at times like these, but once things improve again you will see left-wing independents and SF start to lose support again. The only way Sinn Fein's supports will rise further if they move towards the centre- who knows they might meet fianna fail moving slightly to the left along the way.

Sundy

Its actually people saying why they wont vote for them.

applejam

Deleted User wrote: »

I think that SF will be there or abouts as the main opposition party this time but after a while their policies will be become evident as what they are - empty, hollow unrealistic promises.

SF to have a good 3 year period then fall into the back benches and eventually lose their seats next time around.

Agree

Wolfe Tone

Pal wrote: »

Can't trust them.

Why don't they disband the IRA ?

Why can't they come up with some economic policy that makes sense ?

Raiding the pension fund is just daft.

Ehhhhh they did disband the IRA.....

Pal

Correct me if i'm wrong.

Didn't they decommission the weapons but the organisation remains ?

Wolfe Tone

Pal wrote: »

Correct me if i'm wrong.

Didn't they decommission the weapons but the organisation remains ?

Weapons are all gone, Army Council doesnt meet at all, IRA is gone.

Pal

OK. thanks

paul71

Hi Wolfe Tone, keeping an eye out for you here today, looks like you may push out to 16 seats, pretty much what was targetted. I have seen a few posts here about future of FF, I personally beleive the wipeout will psuh the stump left and that over next 10 years SF will slightly soften their harder left leanings. Do you think a merger or more likely and absorbtion of FF into SF will happen? Not now maybe 10 years?

wolfpawnat

Pal wrote: »

Can't trust them.

Why don't they disband the IRA ?

Why can't they come up with some economic policy that makes sense ?

Raiding the pension fund is just daft.

The IRA that was associated with SF (the Provos) is long long disbanded, the Continuity IRA and the Real IRA are nothing to do with SF, they are associated with other groups.

And as for raiding the pension fund, all the parties informed the electorate that they would be "raiding" it.

And some of their policies make great sense. A 1% tax on the super rich is a great idea. 1% means toss all to them lads yet bringing in revenue!

Wolfe Tone

paul71 wrote: »

Hi Wolfe Tone, keeping an eye out for you here today, looks like you may push out to 16 seats, pretty much what was targetted. I have seen a few posts here about future of FF, I personally beleive the wipeout will psuh the stump left and that over next 10 years SF will slightly soften their harder left leanings. Do you think a merger or more likely and absorbtion of FF into SF will happen? Not now maybe 10 years?

I expect people who used to vote FF will vote SF, but I dont expect the parties to amalgamate. I expect long term SF will stop being hard left, but I dont know for sure.

Chucky the tree

wolfpawnat wrote: »

The IRA that was associated with SF (the Provos) is long long disbanded, the Continuity IRA and the Real IRA are nothing to do with SF, they are associated with other groups.

And as for raiding the pension fund, all the parties informed the electorate that they would be "raiding" it.

And some of their policies make great sense. A 1% tax on the super rich is a great idea. 1% means toss all to them lads yet bringing in revenue!

Have you asked all the super rich then?

Eric Pinchet, author of a French tax guide, estimates the wealth tax earns the government about $2.6 billion a year but has cost the country more than $125 billion in capital flight since 1998.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/15/AR2006071501010.html

dlofnep

This is a good base for Sinn Féin to build upon. We've seen in the north where Sinn Féin went from relative obscurity to the largest party in the space of a generation. People are starting to listen to Sinn Féin, and are sick of the other parties that want us to bail out private debt. 15 potential seats is an amazing feat, and despite what the detractors say - this is a great moment for Sinn Féin.

Chucky the tree

It is a great moment for Sinn Fein but for them to push on into the mid 20's or have a chance as a junior party they will need to move more centre. The problem then becomes losing out on transfers from far left voters. Fianna Fails rebound will also be a problem for them.

johngalway

mike65 wrote: »

It depends if their current success attracts more "up the 'ra" barstool merchants, I think they will have the FF working class vote for quite some time, esp in Dublin. Gerry Adams is an issue for the party (someone will be on here soon to tell me to fck off back home and that Adams is here for life).

Fuc.....

Oh, wait, no, I agree

KIERAN1

Sinn Féin voters are well informed, and are realistic about the current economic situation in this country. Were the doubters of Sinn Féin, just my opinion, are are easily swayed by the mass opinion, even though, Sinn Féin were being intellectually honest to the Irish electorate from the very beginning of this election!

The Irish state will likely default in a year or two on all "Debts" owned by us both private and public, that will be catastrophic for everyone in this economy, so continuing along the same road of paying back this loan from the ECB and THE IMF, that we'll simply can not afford, it so ignorant it giving me a severe headache at the moment.

The IRA also ended their war in 1994 and it now 2011 let us move on?

The FF party only cares about its own wellbeing, that is why the leader of the FF party keeps binging up what happened in the North in the past,some people obviously fell for it. It was done so to confuse distort a manipulate the honest message Sinn Féin were putting out there to the Irish people.

Chucky the tree

KIERAN1 wrote: »

Sinn Féin voters are well informed, and are realistic about the current economic situation in this country. Were the doubters of Sinn Féin, just my opinion, are are easily swayed by the mass opinion, even though, Sinn Féin were being intellectually honest to the Irish electorate from the very beginning of this election!

The Irish state will likely default in a year or two on all "Debts" owned by us both private and public, that will be catastrophic for everyone in this economy, so continuing along the same road of paying back this loan from the ECB and THE IMF, that we'll simply can not afford, it so ignorant it giving me a severe headache at the moment.

:pac: Yet none of these "well informed voters" were ever able to tell people how SF where going to run the country after we burnt the bondholders and told IMF/EU to get bent.

wolfpawnat

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Have you asked all the super rich then?

1% of their incomes, though massive to us is menial money to the likes of large business men, If those on minimum wage were expected to give up 11% of their income in the last budget, those who have more than a million to spend on anything can well afford 1%! It is not about asking them it is fact!

No one asked me when the government made my degree to costly to do with a child and forced me onto the dole queue.

Did anyone ask the blind and those looking after their dependant family members did they mind another 8% off their incomes? Doubt it.

We are in a recession and we all need to feel the pinch, not just the working and lower middle class!

th3 s1aught3r

Biggins wrote: »

I entered this thread thinking it was a discussion about their rise - its not - its just another thread about bashing them.
Thread title then misleading (through no fault of the OP).

I know. You start a thread on SF and it ends up a bashing

I really thought the media were bashing Sinn Fein too much as were politicians during the campaign, just becasue its populist
I know they have a shady past, but what party doenst ?

Adrian009

wolfpawnat wrote: »

The IRA that was associated with SF (the Provos) is long long disbanded, the Continuity IRA and the Real IRA are nothing to do with SF, they are associated with other groups.

And as for raiding the pension fund, all the parties informed the electorate that they would be "raiding" it.

And some of their policies make great sense. A 1% tax on the super rich is a great idea. 1% means toss all to them lads yet bringing in revenue!

Just for the record its worth pointing out that, up to the split of 1996/97, the people who went on to form the likes of CIRA and RIRA were the same republicans who's actions Sinn Fein under Adams had excused. While I'm delighted Adams has got the IRA to decommission, his track record is still there for all to see. Hopefully someday that kind of mindset will also be decommissioned.

Adrian009

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

I know. You start a thread on SF and it ends up a bashing

I really thought the media were bashing Sinn Fein too much as were politicians during the campaign, just becasue its populist
I know they have a shady past, but what party doenst ?

Actually, there is every reason to believe that Sinn Fein will be in government in about ten years time.

Adrian009

wolfpawnat wrote: »

1% of their incomes, though massive to us is menial money to the likes of large business men, If those on minimum wage were expected to give up 11% of their income in the last budget, those who have more than a million to spend on anything can well afford 1%! It is not about asking them it is fact!

No one asked me when the government made my degree to costly to do with a child and forced me onto the dole queue.

Did anyone ask the blind and those looking after their dependant family members did they mind another 8% off their incomes? Doubt it.

We are in a recession and we all need to feel the pinch, not just the working and lower middle class!

Its not the super rich who aggrivate me. There is actually few of them left because of the recession.

I would instead like to see all citizens who avoid paying tax brought to heel. If that includes the super-rich, so be it. You should not enjoy Irish citzenship if you can afford to pay tax yet avoid doing so.

Chucky the tree

wolfpawnat wrote: »

1% of their incomes, though massive to us is menial money to the likes of large business men, If those on minimum wage were expected to give up 11% of their income in the last budget, those who have more than a million to spend on anything can well afford 1%! It is not about asking them it is fact!

No one asked me when the government made my degree to costly to do with a child and forced me onto the dole queue.

Did anyone ask the blind and those looking after their dependant family members did they mind another 8% off their incomes? Doubt it.

We are in a recession and we all need to feel the pinch, not just the working and lower middle class!

It's 1% of their assets. So you've no idea if they can afford it then so it certainly isn't fact. We've seen from the France model it will cost us a lot more money then it will bring so in.

Mucco

Adrian009 wrote: »

Actually, there is every reason to believe that Sinn Fein will be in government in about ten years time.

Martin Ferris as minister for justice?

dlofnep

RE: Taxing the rich.

2 things. Firstly, there will be always those that state if you tax the rich - then they will leave the state, and in turn take their disposable income, and any jobs that they have created with them. This has been argued, regardless of what the tax rate has been. If they had their way - they wouldn't pay any tax whatsoever. So I think what most left-leaning parties are arguing for is that if the working class and unemployed are to take a hit, then those that can afford to take a hit should take a reflective hit also.

Secondly - It is certainly arguable that you can over-tax the wealthy. This is very true, and there certainly needs to be a point that those who have worked hard to earn their wealth should be at least allowed to preserve their fair share of it, while paying a sufficient and reflective amount of tax in comparison to everyone else.

It's find the balance between those that I think most people find issue at come election time. Regardless of what the tax rate is, right-leaning people will advocate lower taxes or a halt on tax-increases for the wealthy, while left-leaning people will advocate for a progressive tax system that ensures the wealthy pay a bit more because they may be financially secure to do so.

This isn't the first time this issue has been debated, and it won't be the last.

jank

Well congrats to SF, they did very well.

I would give them a vote any day before FF but totally reject their hard left economic leanings so they don't get a vote from me. BUT I know lots of people who have voted for them. The big stigma of voting SF is gone and the only way is up for them I think. Lots of young people are attracted to them as well so they will grow but will need to put forward more concrete proposals rather than populist stuff!

Adrian009

Mucco wrote: »

Martin Ferris as minister for justice?

THAT would certainly cause furore among the Defense Forces. However, I think SF would be smart enough to leave out people such as him from any future government. Most people may not be comformtable with SF in government till the old guard associated with the IRA have retired.

Adrian009

jank wrote: »

Well congrats to SF, they did very well.

I would give them a vote any day before FF but totally reject their hard left economic leanings so they don't get a vote from me. BUT I know lots of people who have voted for them. The big stigma of voting SF is gone and the only way is up for them I think. Lots of young people are attracted to them as well so they will grow but will need to put forward more concrete proposals rather than populist stuff!

Leaving aside his connections to the IRA, many feel that the party can only progress either if Adams takes up more cogent econmoic policies, or retires. Much of the old guard will have retired in ten years time, which would make the prospect of SF in Irish government a lot more palatable. Also, they Troubles would be an even more distant memory and not one which would bother younger voters.

wolfpawnat

Adrian009 wrote: »

Just for the record its worth pointing out that, up to the split of 1996/97, the people who went on to form the likes of CIRA and RIRA were the same republicans who's actions Sinn Fein under Adams had excused. While I'm delighted Adams has got the IRA to decommission, his track record is still there for all to see. Hopefully someday that kind of mindset will also be decommissioned.

Recent attempts by the CIRA to detonate bombs in the North have shown that indeed they have an experienced bomb maker, and it is more than likely a old member of PIRA. This is the generally accepted view, and I myself think it highly plausible!

But we cannot criticise those who have come into diplomacy for their past behaviours as to do so would make them think why bother and leave us with the same violence as was witnessed before.

After the Civil War no one threw those sort of comments at DeV or Markievicz. We should grow up and accept that people will come from different areas to the table to talk!

Adrian009 wrote: »

Its not the super rich who aggrivate me. There is actually few of them left because of the recession.

I would instead like to see all citizens who avoid paying tax brought to heel. If that includes the super-rich, so be it. You should not enjoy Irish citzenship if you can afford to pay tax yet avoid doing so.

Bono sickens me, he pays the tax for U2 to the Netherlands, but gets the artists exemption here in Ireland for said works. It should be mandatory for these people to have their work based in Ireland to get this exemption!

Chucky the tree wrote: »

It's 1% of their assets. So you've no idea if they can afford it then so it certainly isn't fact. We've seen from the France model it will cost us a lot more money then it will bring so in.

If you can afford to get boats, cars, houses, etc worth over a million euro you can well afford it. And I would base this on the cost of houses now, not during the boom btw!

Chucky the tree

wolfpawnat wrote: »

If you can afford to get boats, cars, houses, etc worth over a million euro you can well afford it. And I would base this on the cost of houses now, not during the boom btw!

So if you bought a house 30 years ago and it's now worth a €1m you should pay €10k a year even if your years income is €40k?

Bruthal

mohawk wrote: »

When you take out their recent history I still wouldn't vote for then because their economic policies are ridiculous.

Luckily for the country, we had FF economic policies so.

Adrian009

wolfpawnat wrote: »

Recent attempts by the CIRA to detonate bombs in the North have shown that indeed they have an experienced bomb maker, and it is more than likely a old member of PIRA. This is the generally accepted view, and I myself think it highly plausible!

But we cannot criticise those who have come into diplomacy for their past behaviours as to do so would make them think why bother and leave us with the same violence as was witnessed before.

After the Civil War no one threw those sort of comments at DeV or Markievicz. We should grow up and accept that people will come from different areas to the table to talk!

Bono sickens me, he pays the tax for U2 to the Netherlands, but gets the artists exemption here in Ireland for said works. It should be mandatory for these people to have their work based in Ireland to get this exemption!

If you can afford to get boats, cars, houses, etc worth over a million euro you can well afford it. And I would base this on the cost of houses now, not during the boom btw!

I agree. People should be held responsible for their own actions.

Bono? Ditto.

Problem is, not many boats, cars and houses, even valued together, would come to a million euros these days. Let each be taxed accordingly but fairly. We don't want to begger the poor or further impoverish the middle class.

KIERAN1

Chucky the tree wrote: »

KIERAN1 wrote: »

Sinn Féin voters are well informed, and are realistic about the current economic situation in this country. Were the doubters of Sinn Féin, just my opinion, are are easily swayed by the mass opinion, even though, Sinn Féin were being intellectually honest to the Irish electorate from the very beginning of this election!

The Irish state will likely default in a year or two on all "Debts" owned by us both private and public, that will be catastrophic for everyone in this economy, so continuing along the same road of paying back this loan from the ECB and THE IMF, that we'll simply can not afford, it so ignorant it giving me a severe headache at the moment./QUOTE]


:pac: Yet none of these "well informed voters" were ever able to tell people how SF where going to run the country after we burnt the bondholders and told IMF/EU to get bent.

Actually Sinn Féin said a wealth tax should happen/ a new third tax band for people on higher wages/ people earning over and between 50,000 a year from their job ... Taking funds from pension fund, that has many billions in it to fix the economy, for a number of years... plus the state believe it also had enough in the reserve fund, to fund itself for another six to nine months before the ECB and IMF came in to protect the EURO, not us, and some other things were also presented by SF to reduce the deficit in the Irish Yearly budget, can't think of them off the top of my head.

The only plan or policy that Sinn Fein were slightly unrealistic about was there will be no cuts to the social welfare budget, or no increases in tax for the public, could modify it a bit, but still tax increases can't be stopped or ever, but in their favor, the cost of living in this state was, and still is the main and real reason for "Why" there is should such a large hole between what we spent, and what we take in from Tax streams.The high wages some people were getting was the direct result of cost of living in this country. Owning your own a house was something the banks wished us all to do, the net result was profiteering happened, banks increasing the price of homes with the help of Irish developers, this therefore took lot wealth from this society/ from peoples wages/ and this just lined the pockets of the banking elite in this country.

Back to basics for this economy.

Reduce prices for goods and services, then you don't need to be so reliant on allocating large funding to social welfare programs, to the most vulnerable people in our society. Well it not the fault of ordinary working people, as the costs in this economy are so very high, it the fault is with the Irish price market system, and People taking advantage of it in good times with the selling of their product to another person wishing to buy that product.

The reason why people are feeling the hardship more then they'd should is. The Irish Taxpayer is being asked here to pay back a "Double Debit" to Foreign banks that caused the mess in the first place.

As a nation we should accept responsibility for debts borrowed by "Us" over the years to run our economy thus (Sovereign debt) But private bank debt, should never be paid back by right. It has nothing to do with the Irish Taxpayer, every taxpayer is paying a percentage of their income, to somebody they've never met in person seen or ever will, it crazy stuff to me!

The discussion in this country among the main political parties was, we do have to work with our European Friends to fix this situation, and we should pay our way, so pay back all debts public and private. Though sanity such prevail in the long run, as private banking debt is not owed by us, clever heads in Europe will figure that out soon or eventually, and come to some arrangement hopefully with our New Government for the sake of this country. Look charging us an interest rate of 5.8% on debts belonging to their banks (oxymoron) don't you think? The interest rate, we simply can not afford, never mind the fact we will not able to finance the loan itself from within the state.

People who trade and purchase Bonds (debt in simple terms) were laughing at us when this country guaranteed all banking debt back in 2010.. It was the sole reason Ireland bond interest yield was going up.We had so much debt on the books, which was made even worse when we guaranteed it all back, that was a signal to the markets the former government (FF)are just bunch of wild men who don't understand basic economics, as to how the markets should even work too!

Sinn Féin said this country will borrow in 2012 from the Markets..In my opinion it risky now in this current climate, not back in 2010 when the mess took place, but again that is how the markets work, buying up countries debt. Our debt was so high because of our willingness to pay all banking debt, the markets so very little return for them in profit, with this country owning so much back. Basic principle of the bond market people!!!

What is amazing though is the politicians, who were in the former Government, and the politicians that are going to create a new Government, next week or later, do not have a grasp of how things work Financially, so do people who voted for them expect them honestly expect the FG party to get us out of the mess we all face going into the future? Their clueless about what do in my opinion cutting a interest point or two of the loan will not sort out the economy.

paul71

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

I expect people who used to vote FF will vote SF, but I dont expect the parties to amalgamate. I expect long term SF will stop being hard left, but I dont know for sure.

Ok could except that assesment, I think today could be the start of normalisation of Irish politics in line with other European countries. The very exsistance of FF was an anomoly in a political system, a centre left party who pandered to some right wing idealogies.

If in event of a united Ireland in 30 years how do you see working class unionists alining themselves? I think centre right unionists would probably retain a separate party but ally themselves to FG quite easily, but on the other side the left has a 3 way split as opposed to 2 way. Or you think Sinn Fein and Loyalist working class can work together. (not trolling honest question)

Bruthal

johngalway wrote: »

They rise in bad times, fall in good times. That's my prediction.

You predict they could be around for a fair while so.

LordSutch

Hopefully not.

annoyingbeast

Too much SF bashing going on in here...

anyway, i personally think sinn fein will become more and more popular, i know this much, that in the opposition they will be along side 4 ULA TD's and loads of left leaning Independents. Gerry will be a huge force in the opposition and will keep FG/Lab on their toes, along with Joe Higgins and even Michael Martin, Enda will have a hard time on his hands keeping those men at bay.

After this Election, the Dail will be alot more exciting place with the new personality's and the strong leadership from Sinn Fein and the ULA.

dubhthach

I think Sinn Féin can be very happy with this election. Not only did they do better then they expected -- Adams said they were expecting 9-10 seats -- but their candidates around the country got alot better vote then what they would normally get in the past. The next election is in 2016 given that they are gonna be second biggest party in opposition you will see one of them invited on every political show along with FF spokesman to discuss gov decisions etc.

eg. Expect to see Pearse Doherty on Prime Time/Frontline/Vincent Browne every other week.

Given that FG/Labour will have to make some unpleasent decisions in goverenment it's only fair to reckon that SF will pick up extra seats in 2016 (ignoring the year that's in it and all)