March 2011 Boards forecast contest

thetonynator

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

I think M.T has made it fairly clear Tony.

He didnt make it clear whether he was introducing this rule now, or in the future. personally i don't think the rules should be changed in the middle of the competition, but thats not my call to make.

M.T. Cranium

I see your point, it's more of an unwritten rule that has come up once or twice before when the first day of the month sets up a possible extreme, but if you wish, you can take -5.5 and the penalty, I didn't rule against it earlier, I just forgot about it due to some even bigger issues in my life. :eek:

pauldry

Feckin comp is hard enough to organise MT without all these issues:rolleyes: cropping up eh?

Anyways the West is still milder than normal this month with the East colder.

thetonynator

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I see your point, it's more of an unwritten rule that has come up once or twice before when the first day of the month sets up a possible extreme, but if you wish, you can take -5.5 and the penalty, I didn't rule against it earlier, I just forgot about it due to some even bigger issues in my life. :eek:

Don't worry about it, i'm fecked anyway for this year i think!!!

pauldry

IMT 5.2c - after 6 days

M.T. Cranium

For the first seven days of March:

IMT 5.3 C

rainfall a mere 2% of normal

sunshine 135% of normal despite only 64% at Belmullet.

Deep Easterly

on 5.4c up to the 12th, around 0.7c below average for this point in the month. March IMR % of normal for the first 12 days at 61%.


How is the year doing so far?

Chart showing IMT from the 1st Jan up to the present:


IMT for the period 1st Jan - 12th March on 5.1c which is 0.2c above the 61-90 norm and 0.1c above IMT for the same period in 2009.


IMT Station Max/Min breakdown so far this year:


Mullingar coolest/Shannon Apt warmest.



Graph charting IMR (Irish Mean Rainfall) % of normal rainfall so far this year with the trend for the same period in both 2010 & 2009 included for comparison:


Up to the 12th March, 2011's IMR % of normal rainfall value on 109%, much higher than that for the same period last year but close to the 103% value for the same time period in 2009. This value is likely to fall this coming week.




A quick peek at the weather on this day in 1968:

Surface pressure chart for Noon 13th March 1968:


a weak front pushed down over Ireland bringing a little light rain to places before clearer weather spread from the NW with a few light showers in the west. Tempeatures ranged from 7c in the far northwest to 11c in the south and south east.


Forecast issued on this day:



Typical Irish weather really...



Data & Image sources:
Met Eireann
Irish Times Archive

M.T. Cranium

My two-week report has turned into a mid-month estimate but looks like precip has been boosted by more of a wettish sort of week to nearly 65% of normal, however with rather dry weather ahead, that seems likely to fall back again.

Sunshine continues on a similar pace to the first week and I estimate it now sits at 125 to 130 per cent.

The IMT will probably inch up slowly now into the range of 6 to 6.5 at some point next week. Guesses between 6 and 7 look fairly sound at this point.

Joe Public

Max for 17th = 10.0C

M.T. Cranium

Max points to you (Joe Public) at 9.9, Strasser (9.4), Gothwalk and Jerry Seinfeld (tied 11.0).

Next two get nine, then groups of three from there on down to the people who went too warm (very few went too cold).

Joe Public

Oh thanks, I never noticed;)

Deep Easterly

Have been monitoring the daily mean sea level pressure at Claremorris station this year (will try to involve more statoins later) just to compare with the previous few years. Just going by personal observation alone it seems that sea level pressure values this year have been running almost continuously above average. It just seems that my weather station at least has become a stranger to values below 1000 hPa this year so far!

I have compiled this chart just to show the MSLP (based on mean values at 0000hrs) at met eireann station Claremorris since the the start of this year up to March 18th and which also includes the trend for the same period in 2010, 2009 & 2008:



I found it no surprise that the MSLP value this year so far (1014.6mb) is running higher than that for the same period in the previous years included in the chart for Claremorris and with little sign of any relent in higher than average readings over the next week at least, it is likely that the trend this year will start to seperate itself further from the values in recorded in the previous 3 years.

Will update this watch ever so often just so as to keep y'all informed as to what the hell is going on with the weather lately (not that we get weather anymore or anything )


Data source:
Met Eireann
Ogimet

pauldry

IMT for March looks like Consensus

Su Campu

Max temperature today 15.1C at Oak Park

M.T. Cranium

I think I saw 15.4 on Sunday there. Expect something a bit higher tomorrow perhaps.

Su Campu

Yep, max 15.8C at Oak Park today....

M.T. Cranium

Some updates after third week of March (21 days) ...

IMT stands at 5.6 C (should jump up to near 6.0 this week)

rainfall for the week only 35% and for month about 45%.

sunshine continued at similar pace (145%) and sits around 140% for the month.

(by the way, here's my continued approach to the new stations that you don't see on the daily summary page ... I won't keep track of them, if they show up in the monthly summary, then I will use them, if they don't, I assume any readings like the 24 February reading for Phoenix Park have been rejected by quality control. So whatever is printed in the monthly summary is what I will use regardless of what may be listed for daily values elsewhere.

also while on the subject of rules clarifications, I will make it official, that everyone who has entered by end of first without penalty then has their entry "locked in" and cannot edit it on the 2nd even if it produces a higher score, and late-late entries will be allowed one per contestant, not for any new contestant, after which you can't claim one at all ... and on the basis of stronger penalty as explained this month with the late late entry on the 3rd. Even this late late entry option will close at end of 3rd and is meant as a courtesy to regular players, not an option people should choose. Just thought I would put these clarifications in writing for future reference in case.)

Note -- Easter falls very late this year (24 April) and I'm wondering if there are any big events the two weekends before Easter in Ireland, that I can use for the bonus question? Any suggestions gratefully accepted. Would prefer the 9th-10th to add a bit of reality to the bonus question.

fizzycyst

not really much of an event but the Irish census takes place on the 10th April MT, other than that I can't think of anything.

M.T. Cranium

Count me in.

Speak Now

I think the Great Ireland run is on April 10th so whatever station is closest to Phoenix park for max on the day. Casement or Airport?

pauldry

16.2c in Claremorris ...........go the Wesht

MiNdGaM3

17.2C in Valentia today.

thetonynator

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

I think the Great Ireland run is on April 10th so whatever station is closest to Phoenix park for max on the day. Casement or Airport?

Would it be bad to point out the pheonix park station?!

Deep Easterly

Already 17c at Valentia on 1pm reports, and 16c at some inland stations:



18c max certainly a possibilty over the next few hours. On another note, Rh value on just 49% at Ballyhaise.

Speak Now

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Already 17c at Valentia on 1pm reports, and 16c at some inland stations:

18c max certainly a possibilty over the next few hours. On another note, Rh value on just 49% at Ballyhaise.

18c @ 2P.M

Su Campu

Max today 18.6C at Valentia. Compare that to a max of only 6.8C at Malin Head due to sea fog!

Gerry howley

After another fine clear sunny dry day in Castlebar it is now 8c atm in a Light N/E

M.T. Cranium

Well, this is "a day late and a buck short" as we say around here, but after the fourth week (28 days) the stats looked like this heading for home:

IMT 6.1 C (probably 6.2 now and est 6.5 by end of month due to very mild nights ahead)

Precip in the fourth week was zilch, nada, awol ... setting up a meagre 30% running total but with some wet weather ahead, that could swell to maybe 50 or even 60 which basically means I may not need the mercy rule (the scores will probably be the same whatever this late rain produces unless there's a deluge of it).

Sunshine in the fourth week was 190% bringing that running total up further to about 155% of normal. Not expecting much more sunshine, but hard to move that stat much below 150% now.

Deep Easterly

In complete contrast to today, this day last year (30th March 2010) was a very cold and windy day with heavy rain, sleet and even snow which gave significant accumulations on highground in some northern and midland areas. Northeasterly winds became strong as a deep depression moved close to the SE coast before backing more northwesterly later in the day:

Synoptic analysis chart for 1800hrs 30th March 2010:


Max temperature only reached 2.6c at Mullingar during the day with 26.1mm of rain recorded at the station.



Euro satellite animation for the afternoon of the 30th March 2010:


a classic 'wrap-a-round' occlusion lying over the east of the country as a cold northerly airstream developed on its western flank.



Data & Image sources:
Met Eireann
Sat.24.com

M.T. Cranium

Actual values for March:

IMT 6.6 C

max 18.6 (Val 18th)

min -5.4 (Dub 3rd)

precip 47%

sunshine 150%

bonus (max 17th) 10.0

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Scoring will proceed as soon as my coffee takes hold. (0800 here) :eek: