March 2011 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

For March, please give the usual five answers plus one for the bonus question:

1. The mean temperature (IMT) for the five selected stations (1961-90 avg was 6.1 C).

2. The highest temperature anywhere in Ireland on the met.ie network.

3. The lowest temperature anywhere in Ireland on the met.ie network.

4. The rainfall (precip) as a percentage of normal for all reporting stations.

5. The sunshine as a percentage of normal for all reporting stations.

6. The maximum temperature in Ireland on the 17th.

Use this template if you wish ...

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... MAX17

Entries due by end of the day, Tuesday 1 March ... penalties apply to entries received on 2 March.

200motels

IMT .6.9.... MAX .18.5.... MIN .-2.7.... RAIN .71%.... SUN 157% ..... MAX17 16.4

MiNdGaM3

Sorry, kinda new to this, but which 5 stations are used for the IMT?

BEASTERLY

It would be interesting have a long the predictions of a long range weather model on the 28th entered into the competition a see how it fares up againt us boardies.

TheInquisitor

IMT 3 MAX 15 MIN -9 RAIN 75% SUN 109% MAX 8

4Sheets

IMT .6.2.... MAX .15.5.... MIN .-5.0.... RAIN 96%.... SUN 103% ..... MAX17 13.0

NIALL D

IMT .5.9.... MAX .16.... MIN .-3.0.... RAIN .80%.... SUN 130% ..... MAX17. 12

dacogawa

IMT 6.8 MAX 16.5 MIN -4 RAIN 60% SUN 140% MAX17. 11.2

MiNdGaM3

Suppose I'll just take a stab at it!

IMT 7.1 MAX 17.6 MIN -4.0C Rain 67% SUN 133% MAX17 13.9

H2UMrsRobinson

IMT 12.3 MAX ..18.2... MIN ...-1.5.. RAIN ..115%... SUN ..97%... MAX17 17.7

talkabout

IMT 6.6 MAX 17.5 MIN -4.6 RAIN 105% SUN 110% MAX17. 13.4

Strasser

IMT .....6.1 MAX .....15.8 MIN .....-3.5 RAIN .....90% SUN .....115% MAX17... 9.4

thetonynator

7.2 ..... 18.5 ..... -2.5 ..... 120% ..... 110% ..... 17.5


February only seemed to last about 2 weeks!!!

Lumi

6.8 ..... 17.7 ..... -4 ..... 95 ..... 105 ..... 14.9

homolumo

7.4 ..... 18.7 ..... -3.1 ..... 90% ..... 140% ..... 17.1

pauldry

7.1 ..... 16.9 ..... -3.4 ..... 63% ..... 142% ..... 13.1

nacho libre

IMT 6.3 MAX ..16.7... MIN ...-2.2.. RAIN ..120%... SUN ..95%... MAX 13.4

Harps

6.7 ..... 16.9 ..... -3.7 ..... 85 ..... 130 ..... 14.7

Deep Easterly

6.0 ..... 17.2 ..... -3.3c ..... 93 ..... 97 ..... 12.3

fizzycyst

7.0 ..... 17.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 80 ..... 110 ..... 14.5

SeaFields

5.8 ..... 17.0 ..... -1.5..... 160..... 80 ..... 14.5

Tae laidir

6.2 ..... 17.3 ..... -2.2 ..... 122..... 109 ..... 14.7

Sponge Bob

7.3 ..... 19.2 ..... -3.1 ..... 80% ..... 126% ..... 16.6

Joe Public

5.5C ..... 15.9C ..... -5.9C ..... 79% ..... 129% ..... 9.9C

Rebelbrowser

IMT 7.1.... MAX 19.3.... MIN -3.6.... RAIN 75%.... SUN 139% ..... MAX17 15.2

dasa29

6.1 ..... 17.5 ..... -4.5 ..... 125..... 125 ..... 13.5

rameire

6.7 ..... 16.8 ..... -4.1 ..... 89 ..... 115 ..... 15.4

nilhg

6.25 ..... 16.8 ..... -5.2 ..... 89 ..... 120 ..... 12.8

mickger844posts

IMT 6.5 MAX 16.8 MIN -3.6 RAIN 62 SUN 129 MAX17 13.7

Speak Now

5.9 ..... 16.5 ..... -5 ..... 70 ..... 130 ..... 11

kindredspirit

6.5 ..... 17.5 ..... -4 ..... 85 ..... 125 ..... 13.5

jd

6.9 ..... 18.1 ..... -3.5 ..... 109% ..... 110% ..... 15.9

M.T. Cranium

7.0 ..... 17.8 ..... -4.5 ..... 050 ..... 140 ..... 16.0

DOCARCH

5.9 .....18.2 .....-4.8 .....95% .....108% .....14.7

gothwalk

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

For March, please give the usual five answers plus one for the bonus question: [/I]

4.2 ..... 17 ..... -7 ..... 80 ..... 120 ..... 11

waterways

5.4 ..... 17.9 ..... -3.9 ..... 59 ..... 159 ..... 12.8

Su Campu

6.0...16.8...-5.3...70...125...11.6

6.6 ..... 17 ..... -5 ..... 68 ..... 127 ..... 15.3

M.T. Cranium

March forecasts
________________

FORECASTER .... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Max 17th
____________________________________________________________

H2UMrsRobinson 12.3 .... 18.2 ..... -1.5 ..... 115 ..... 097 ..... 17.7
John mac* ....... 8.4 ..... 17.1 ..... -4.1 ..... 110 ..... 093 ..... 12.0
homolumo ........ 7.4 ..... 18.7 ..... -3.1 ..... 090 ..... 140 ..... 17.1
Sponge Bob ..... 7.3 ..... 19.2 ..... -3.1 ..... 080 ..... 126 ..... 16.6
thetonynator ... 7.2 ..... 18.5 ..... -2.5 ..... 120 ..... 110 ..... 17.5
MiNdGaM3 ....... 7.1 ..... 17.6 ..... -4.0 ..... 067 ..... 133 ..... 13.9
Rebelbrowser ... 7.1 ..... 19.3 ..... -3.6 ..... 075 ..... 139 ..... 15.2
pauldry ........... 7.1 ..... 16.9 ..... -3.4 ..... 063 ..... 142 ..... 13.1
fizzycyst ........ 7.0 ..... 17.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 080 ..... 110 ..... 14.5
M.T. Cranium ... 7.0 ..... 17.8 ..... -4.5 ..... 050 ..... 140 ..... 16.0
jd .................. 6.9 ..... 18.1 ..... -3.5 ..... 109 ..... 110 ..... 15.9
200motels ....... 6.9 ..... 18.5 ..... -2.7 ..... 071 ..... 157 ..... 16.4
dacogawa ....... 6.8 ..... 16.5 ..... -4.0 ..... 060 ..... 140 ..... 11.2
Fionagus ......... 6.8 ..... 17.7 ..... -4.0 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 14.9
rameire ........... 6.7 ..... 16.8 ..... -4.1 ..... 089 ..... 115 ..... 15.4
Harps ............. 6.7 ..... 16.9 ..... -3.7 ..... 085 ..... 130 ..... 14.7
hellboy99 ........ 6.6 ..... 17.0 ..... -5.0 ..... 068 ..... 127 ..... 15.3
talkabout ........ 6.6 ..... 17.5 ..... -4.6 ..... 105 ..... 110 ..... 13.4
Kindred Spirit ... 6.5 ..... 17.5 ..... -4.0 ..... 085 ..... 125 ..... 13.5
mickger844ps ... 6.5 ..... 16.8 ..... -3.6 ..... 062 ..... 129 ..... 13.7
nilhg .............. 6.3 ..... 16.8 ..... -5.2 ..... 089 ..... 120 ..... 12.8
nacho libre ...... 6.3 ..... 16.7 ..... -2.2 .... 120 ..... 095 ..... 13.4
4Sheets ......... 6.2 ..... 15.5 ..... -5.0 ..... 096 ..... 103 ..... 13.0
Tae laidir ........ 6.2 ..... 17.3 ..... -2.2 ..... 122 ..... 109 ..... 14.7
dasa29 ........... 6.1 ..... 17.5 ..... -4.5 ..... 125 ..... 125 ..... 13.5
Strasser ......... 6.1 ..... 15.8 ..... -3.5 ..... 090 ..... 115 ....... 9.4
Su Campu ....... 6.0 ..... 16.8 ..... -5.3 ..... 070 ..... 125 ..... 11.6
Deep Easterly .. 6.0 ..... 17.2 ..... -3.3 ..... 093 ..... 097 ..... 12.3
DOCARCH ........ 5.9 ..... 18.2 ..... -4.8 ..... 095 ..... 108 ..... 14.7
Jerry Seinfeld ... 5.9 ..... 16.5 ..... -5.0 ..... 070 ..... 130 ..... 11.0
NIALL D .......... 5.9 ..... 16.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 080 ..... 130 ..... 12.0
SeaFields ........ 5.8 ..... 17.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 160 ..... 080 ..... 14.5
Joe Public ....... 5.5 ..... 15.9 ..... -5.9 ..... 079 ..... 129 ....... 9.9
waterways ...... 5.4 ..... 17.9 ..... -3.9 ..... 059 ..... 159 ..... 12.8
danno* ........... 4.9 ..... 14.6 ..... -7.7 ..... 063 ..... 122 ...... 7.7
gothwalk ......... 4.2 ..... 17.0 ..... -7.0 ..... 080 ..... 120 ..... 11.0
TheInquisitor ... 3.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -9.0 ..... 075 ..... 109 ....... 8.0

* late entries before end of 2nd

As entries can still be added, to end of today, I will wait to add the Con Sensus values.

To answer an earlier question that I missed seeing, the IMT values are the averages of five inland stations, namely, Shannon, Oak Park, Casement, Mullingar, and Claremorris. The index is the idea of Deep Easterly.

MiNdGaM3

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

To answer an earlier question that I missed seeing, the IMT values are the averages of five inland stations, namely, Shannon, Oak Park, Casement, Mullingar, and Claremorris. The index is the idea of Deep Easterly.

Cheers MTC. Seems I've already lost on the minimum temperature figure, or am I still allowed to update my guess during the today?

John mac

8.4.....17.1 .....-4.1.....110.....93 ..... 12


hope its not too late ..

MiNdGaM3

John mac wrote: »

8.4.....17.1 .....-4.1.....110.....93 ..... 12


hope its not too late ..

The temp got down to -4.9C in Casement this morning, so ya might want to edit that!

Speak Now

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Cheers MTC. Seems I've already lost on the minimum temperature figure, or am I still allowed to update my guess during the today?

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

The temp got down to -4.9C in Casement this morning, so ya might want to edit that!

Late entires are allowed with a penalty but editing a GUESS to match an ACTUAL :rolleyes:

M.T. Cranium

We've had this situation once or twice before, seems there is an unwritten sort of "honour system" where people stick with their posted forecasts.

There is a rather lenient penalty system for entries on the 2nd day of each month, which is explained elsewhere but for anyone new, this involves a 10% reduction of scores that are higher than 60. The reason this is lenient is that only a few scores exceed 60.

I can't recall a situation where anyone changed a forecast on the 2nd despite the penalty, so let's introduce this as a rule, I will routinely list the forecasts made by the deadline and those are "in the book" and then any posted on the 2nd are "in the book" from first appearance.

We can avoid this situation by moving the deadline but I inherited this later deadline and have the impression a lot of long-time weather forum guys are so used to it, they will forget to post, so I didn't want to create that problem either. Factor in this change of the roster of stations in use (meaning new stations that seem to have different rules in different months), and this isn't running quite as smoothly as I would like.

pauldry

I dont really understandwhat you say above MT so im leaving my min prediction as it is even though my min is already miles out. It always is. :rolleyes: I dont believe in entering twice.

Strange that March has already seen a colder night than February

MiNdGaM3

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Late entires are allowed with a penalty but editing a GUESS to match an ACTUAL :rolleyes:

Fair enough, I just thought it was unlucky that John mac guessed his minimum too high even when the info was there to see, had he known/checked.

I see you guessed -5C, that should be quite close...

Danno

IMT 4.9..... MAX 14.6..... MIN -7.7..... RAIN 63%..... SUN 122% ...... MAX17 7.7

Tae laidir

My Very Late Prediction
IMT IMF??...Max FG...Min SF...PRC FF...Sun Lab...Max 17 Enda in White House :eek:

thetonynator

I don't get what you mean either MT, but if i'm allowed can i change my min to -5.5 and take the penalty? if not doesn't matter, i've had 2 bad months already, 1 more won't make a difference . . .:(

John mac

I entered the values , without looking at the overnight temps. Dont like cheating.

I agree the entries should not be edited, (dont think any have been in the last year anyway)

just wouldn't be cricket .. :D

M.T. Cranium

I agree, hopefully it will drop to -12 some night and everyone will feel better about it.