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March 2011 Boards forecast contest

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24

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    #32
    jd
    Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭jd


    6.9 ..... 18.1 ..... -3.5 ..... 109% ..... 110% ..... 15.9


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    #33
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    7.0 ..... 17.8 ..... -4.5 ..... 050 ..... 140 ..... 16.0


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    #34
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,705 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    5.9 .....18.2 .....-4.8 .....95% .....108% .....14.7


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    #35
    gothwalk
    Registered Users Posts: 195 ✭✭gothwalk


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    For March, please give the usual five answers plus one for the bonus question: [/I]

    4.2 ..... 17 ..... -7 ..... 80 ..... 120 ..... 11


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    #36
    waterways
    Registered Users Posts: 372 ✭✭waterways


    5.4 ..... 17.9 ..... -3.9 ..... 59 ..... 159 ..... 12.8


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    #37
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    6.0...16.8...-5.3...70...125...11.6


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    #38
    hellboy99
    Registered Users Posts: 6,219 ✭✭✭hellboy99


    6.6 ..... 17 ..... -5 ..... 68 ..... 127 ..... 15.3


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    #39
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    March forecasts
    ________________

    FORECASTER .... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Max 17th
    ____________________________________________________________

    H2UMrsRobinson 12.3 .... 18.2 ..... -1.5 ..... 115 ..... 097 ..... 17.7
    John mac* ....... 8.4 ..... 17.1 ..... -4.1 ..... 110 ..... 093 ..... 12.0
    homolumo ........ 7.4 ..... 18.7 ..... -3.1 ..... 090 ..... 140 ..... 17.1
    Sponge Bob ..... 7.3 ..... 19.2 ..... -3.1 ..... 080 ..... 126 ..... 16.6
    thetonynator ... 7.2 ..... 18.5 ..... -2.5 ..... 120 ..... 110 ..... 17.5
    MiNdGaM3 ....... 7.1 ..... 17.6 ..... -4.0 ..... 067 ..... 133 ..... 13.9
    Rebelbrowser ... 7.1 ..... 19.3 ..... -3.6 ..... 075 ..... 139 ..... 15.2
    pauldry ........... 7.1 ..... 16.9 ..... -3.4 ..... 063 ..... 142 ..... 13.1
    fizzycyst ........ 7.0 ..... 17.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 080 ..... 110 ..... 14.5
    M.T. Cranium ... 7.0 ..... 17.8 ..... -4.5 ..... 050 ..... 140 ..... 16.0
    jd .................. 6.9 ..... 18.1 ..... -3.5 ..... 109 ..... 110 ..... 15.9
    200motels ....... 6.9 ..... 18.5 ..... -2.7 ..... 071 ..... 157 ..... 16.4
    dacogawa ....... 6.8 ..... 16.5 ..... -4.0 ..... 060 ..... 140 ..... 11.2
    Fionagus ......... 6.8 ..... 17.7 ..... -4.0 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 14.9
    rameire ........... 6.7 ..... 16.8 ..... -4.1 ..... 089 ..... 115 ..... 15.4
    Harps ............. 6.7 ..... 16.9 ..... -3.7 ..... 085 ..... 130 ..... 14.7
    hellboy99 ........ 6.6 ..... 17.0 ..... -5.0 ..... 068 ..... 127 ..... 15.3
    talkabout ........ 6.6 ..... 17.5 ..... -4.6 ..... 105 ..... 110 ..... 13.4
    Kindred Spirit ... 6.5 ..... 17.5 ..... -4.0 ..... 085 ..... 125 ..... 13.5
    mickger844ps ... 6.5 ..... 16.8 ..... -3.6 ..... 062 ..... 129 ..... 13.7
    nilhg .............. 6.3 ..... 16.8 ..... -5.2 ..... 089 ..... 120 ..... 12.8
    nacho libre ...... 6.3 ..... 16.7 ..... -2.2 .... 120 ..... 095 ..... 13.4
    4Sheets ......... 6.2 ..... 15.5 ..... -5.0 ..... 096 ..... 103 ..... 13.0
    Tae laidir ........ 6.2 ..... 17.3 ..... -2.2 ..... 122 ..... 109 ..... 14.7
    dasa29 ........... 6.1 ..... 17.5 ..... -4.5 ..... 125 ..... 125 ..... 13.5
    Strasser ......... 6.1 ..... 15.8 ..... -3.5 ..... 090 ..... 115 ....... 9.4
    Su Campu ....... 6.0 ..... 16.8 ..... -5.3 ..... 070 ..... 125 ..... 11.6
    Deep Easterly .. 6.0 ..... 17.2 ..... -3.3 ..... 093 ..... 097 ..... 12.3
    DOCARCH ........ 5.9 ..... 18.2 ..... -4.8 ..... 095 ..... 108 ..... 14.7
    Jerry Seinfeld ... 5.9 ..... 16.5 ..... -5.0 ..... 070 ..... 130 ..... 11.0
    NIALL D .......... 5.9 ..... 16.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 080 ..... 130 ..... 12.0
    SeaFields ........ 5.8 ..... 17.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 160 ..... 080 ..... 14.5
    Joe Public ....... 5.5 ..... 15.9 ..... -5.9 ..... 079 ..... 129 ....... 9.9
    waterways ...... 5.4 ..... 17.9 ..... -3.9 ..... 059 ..... 159 ..... 12.8
    danno* ........... 4.9 ..... 14.6 ..... -7.7 ..... 063 ..... 122 ...... 7.7
    gothwalk ......... 4.2 ..... 17.0 ..... -7.0 ..... 080 ..... 120 ..... 11.0
    TheInquisitor ... 3.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -9.0 ..... 075 ..... 109 ....... 8.0

    * late entries before end of 2nd

    As entries can still be added, to end of today, I will wait to add the Con Sensus values.

    To answer an earlier question that I missed seeing, the IMT values are the averages of five inland stations, namely, Shannon, Oak Park, Casement, Mullingar, and Claremorris. The index is the idea of Deep Easterly.


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    #40
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    To answer an earlier question that I missed seeing, the IMT values are the averages of five inland stations, namely, Shannon, Oak Park, Casement, Mullingar, and Claremorris. The index is the idea of Deep Easterly.

    Cheers MTC. Seems I've already lost on the minimum temperature figure, or am I still allowed to update my guess during the today?


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    #41
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,108 ✭✭✭John mac


    8.4.....17.1 .....-4.1.....110.....93 ..... 12


    hope its not too late ..


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    #42
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    John mac wrote: »
    8.4.....17.1 .....-4.1.....110.....93 ..... 12


    hope its not too late ..

    The temp got down to -4.9C in Casement this morning, so ya might want to edit that!


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    #43
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,507 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    Cheers MTC. Seems I've already lost on the minimum temperature figure, or am I still allowed to update my guess during the today?
    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    The temp got down to -4.9C in Casement this morning, so ya might want to edit that!

    Late entires are allowed with a penalty but editing a GUESS to match an ACTUAL :rolleyes:


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    #44
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    We've had this situation once or twice before, seems there is an unwritten sort of "honour system" where people stick with their posted forecasts.

    There is a rather lenient penalty system for entries on the 2nd day of each month, which is explained elsewhere but for anyone new, this involves a 10% reduction of scores that are higher than 60. The reason this is lenient is that only a few scores exceed 60.

    I can't recall a situation where anyone changed a forecast on the 2nd despite the penalty, so let's introduce this as a rule, I will routinely list the forecasts made by the deadline and those are "in the book" and then any posted on the 2nd are "in the book" from first appearance.

    We can avoid this situation by moving the deadline but I inherited this later deadline and have the impression a lot of long-time weather forum guys are so used to it, they will forget to post, so I didn't want to create that problem either. Factor in this change of the roster of stations in use (meaning new stations that seem to have different rules in different months), and this isn't running quite as smoothly as I would like.


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    #45
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,879 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I dont really understandwhat you say above MT so im leaving my min prediction as it is even though my min is already miles out. It always is. :rolleyes: I dont believe in entering twice.

    Strange that March has already seen a colder night than February


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    #46
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »
    Late entires are allowed with a penalty but editing a GUESS to match an ACTUAL :rolleyes:

    Fair enough, I just thought it was unlucky that John mac guessed his minimum too high even when the info was there to see, had he known/checked.

    I see you guessed -5C, that should be quite close...


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    #47
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    IMT 4.9..... MAX 14.6..... MIN -7.7..... RAIN 63%..... SUN 122% ...... MAX17 7.7


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    #48
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    My Very Late Prediction
    IMT IMF??...Max FG...Min SF...PRC FF...Sun Lab...Max 17 Enda in White House :eek:


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    #49
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    I don't get what you mean either MT, but if i'm allowed can i change my min to -5.5 and take the penalty? if not doesn't matter, i've had 2 bad months already, 1 more won't make a difference . . .:(


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    #50
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,108 ✭✭✭John mac


    I entered the values , without looking at the overnight temps. Dont like cheating.

    I agree the entries should not be edited, (dont think any have been in the last year anyway)

    just wouldn't be cricket .. :D:D


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    #51
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I agree, hopefully it will drop to -12 some night and everyone will feel better about it.


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    #52
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    4.8 14 -7 90 110 12


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    #53
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,507 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    I can't recall a situation where anyone changed a forecast on the 2nd despite the penalty, so let's introduce this as a rule, I will routinely list the forecasts made by the deadline and those are "in the book" and then any posted on the 2nd are "in the book" from first appearance.
    thetonynator wrote: »
    I don't get what you mean either MT, but if i'm allowed can i change my min to -5.5 and take the penalty? if not doesn't matter, i've had 2 bad months already, 1 more won't make a difference . . .:(

    I think M.T has made it fairly clear Tony.


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    #54
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »
    I think M.T has made it fairly clear Tony.

    Obviously not that clear if he's the second person to say he doesn't understand:rolleyes:


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    #55
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,507 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    Obviously not that clear if he's the second person to say he doesn't understand:rolleyes:

    :rolleyes: yourself :p


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    #56
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,879 ✭✭✭pauldry


    What MT means is by adding the goals difference to the away goals rules and taking penalities and extra time out of the equation on a pro rata system basis you have a clear idea. :D

    Seriously good job MT continue as always :)


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    #57
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,507 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    pauldry wrote: »
    What MT means is by adding the goals difference to the away goals rules and taking penalities and extra time out of the equation on a pro rata system basis you have a clear idea. :D

    Seriously good job MT continue as always :)

    :D Or we could apply the duckworth lewis method ;)


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    #58
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,108 ✭✭✭John mac


    Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »
    :D Or we could apply the duckworth lewis method ;)

    Oh Yea.. thats the way to go.. ties in nicely with rain .. :D


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    #59
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,507 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Dublin airport -5.4 for the 3rd


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    #60
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,879 ✭✭✭pauldry


    avg temperatures have varied widely so far for March 2011

    DUBLIN 2.2C

    CLAREMORRIS 6.2C

    BELMULLET 9.2C :eek:


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    #61
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,328 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    As I can no longer edit the table, here it is again ... with Con Sensus and Redsunset added. I see that Redsunset was a few hours later than late, but he's been a very regular "player" and I will give him the "talkabout" one-time exemption if that's okay with the rest, with an added penalty (instead of 10% off above 60 we'll go with 20% off above 50 which could be more of a bite). We are definitely closed now, though.

    FORECASTER .... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Max 17th
    ____________________________________________________________

    H2UMrsRobinson 12.3 .... 18.2 ..... -1.5 ..... 115 ..... 097 ..... 17.7
    John mac* ....... 8.4 ..... 17.1 ..... -4.1 ..... 110 ..... 093 ..... 12.0
    homolumo ........ 7.4 ..... 18.7 ..... -3.1 ..... 090 ..... 140 ..... 17.1
    Sponge Bob ..... 7.3 ..... 19.2 ..... -3.1 ..... 080 ..... 126 ..... 16.6
    thetonynator ... 7.2 ..... 18.5 ..... -2.5 ..... 120 ..... 110 ..... 17.5
    MiNdGaM3 ....... 7.1 ..... 17.6 ..... -4.0 ..... 067 ..... 133 ..... 13.9
    Rebelbrowser ... 7.1 ..... 19.3 ..... -3.6 ..... 075 ..... 139 ..... 15.2
    pauldry ........... 7.1 ..... 16.9 ..... -3.4 ..... 063 ..... 142 ..... 13.1
    fizzycyst ........ 7.0 ..... 17.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 080 ..... 110 ..... 14.5
    M.T. Cranium ... 7.0 ..... 17.8 ..... -4.5 ..... 050 ..... 140 ..... 16.0
    jd .................. 6.9 ..... 18.1 ..... -3.5 ..... 109 ..... 110 ..... 15.9
    200motels ....... 6.9 ..... 18.5 ..... -2.7 ..... 071 ..... 157 ..... 16.4
    dacogawa ....... 6.8 ..... 16.5 ..... -4.0 ..... 060 ..... 140 ..... 11.2
    Fionagus ......... 6.8 ..... 17.7 ..... -4.0 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 14.9
    rameire ........... 6.7 ..... 16.8 ..... -4.1 ..... 089 ..... 115 ..... 15.4
    Harps ............. 6.7 ..... 16.9 ..... -3.7 ..... 085 ..... 130 ..... 14.7
    hellboy99 ........ 6.6 ..... 17.0 ..... -5.0 ..... 068 ..... 127 ..... 15.3
    talkabout ........ 6.6 ..... 17.5 ..... -4.6 ..... 105 ..... 110 ..... 13.4
    Kindred Spirit ... 6.5 ..... 17.5 ..... -4.0 ..... 085 ..... 125 ..... 13.5

    Con Sensus ..... 6.5 ..... 17.0 ..... -4.0 ..... 085 ..... 115 ..... 13.5

    mickger844ps ... 6.5 ..... 16.8 ..... -3.6 ..... 062 ..... 129 ..... 13.7
    nilhg .............. 6.3 ..... 16.8 ..... -5.2 ..... 089 ..... 120 ..... 12.8
    nacho libre ...... 6.3 ..... 16.7 ..... -2.2 .... 120 ..... 095 ..... 13.4
    4Sheets ......... 6.2 ..... 15.5 ..... -5.0 ..... 096 ..... 103 ..... 13.0
    Tae laidir ........ 6.2 ..... 17.3 ..... -2.2 ..... 122 ..... 109 ..... 14.7
    dasa29 ........... 6.1 ..... 17.5 ..... -4.5 ..... 125 ..... 125 ..... 13.5
    Strasser ......... 6.1 ..... 15.8 ..... -3.5 ..... 090 ..... 115 ....... 9.4
    Su Campu ....... 6.0 ..... 16.8 ..... -5.3 ..... 070 ..... 125 ..... 11.6
    Deep Easterly .. 6.0 ..... 17.2 ..... -3.3 ..... 093 ..... 097 ..... 12.3
    DOCARCH ........ 5.9 ..... 18.2 ..... -4.8 ..... 095 ..... 108 ..... 14.7
    Jerry Seinfeld ... 5.9 ..... 16.5 ..... -5.0 ..... 070 ..... 130 ..... 11.0
    NIALL D .......... 5.9 ..... 16.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 080 ..... 130 ..... 12.0
    SeaFields ........ 5.8 ..... 17.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 160 ..... 080 ..... 14.5
    Joe Public ....... 5.5 ..... 15.9 ..... -5.9 ..... 079 ..... 129 ....... 9.9
    waterways ...... 5.4 ..... 17.9 ..... -3.9 ..... 059 ..... 159 ..... 12.8
    danno* ........... 4.9 ..... 14.6 ..... -7.7 ..... 063 ..... 122 ...... 7.7
    redsunset** .... 4.8 ..... 14.0 ..... -7.0 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... 12.0
    gothwalk ......... 4.2 ..... 17.0 ..... -7.0 ..... 080 ..... 120 ..... 11.0
    TheInquisitor ... 3.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -9.0 ..... 075 ..... 109 ....... 8.0

    * late penalty
    ** double late penalty (see above)

    News on the Feb contest ... I have decided to go with 15.0 as the monthly max, the met.ie summary has not changed and the higher 15.7 figure is still there also in the daily data, but there is a note with the daily data saying "not quality controlled" so I have to assume after this many days, the reason for the summary saying 15.0 is that quality control on the 15.7 has been a "fail" and in any case I would like to keep my life simple and go with the monthly summary values.

    Will be scoring that February contest today. Look for the results in that thread (it is no longer stickied).


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