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Constituency Betting
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Judging by the amount of independents who aren't going to get in, I'd postulate that a tonne of transfer votes will end up with Fine Gael and would strongly feel they'd be somewhere between 75 and 80 seats. They certainly will get no less than 72.
Batchik/Hanafin are basically duking it out at this stage in DL/Rathdown over the Pro-Life/Pro-Choice debate - Batchik being held up as the biggest abortionist in the Dail and the Hanafin losing credibility over her Vincent Browne performance last night.
Lenihan in Dublin West isn't bad price wise, but I'd be wary of Patrick Nutly sneaking in (hope he does tbh). Also, backing the only TD actually working for the IMF this election... you've got brass ones mate!
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Overall, I expect bith FF & Lab to do well from transfers, but FG to get a very good 1st pref.
As a general trend for strategic voting, I'd expect Labour to be getting quite a few first preferences in their traditional bastions and FG to be getting more 2nd and 3rd due to the ''Ah but they're in anyway'' attitude.
A lot of ex-FFs, blueshirt nonsense aside, are actually going to end up voting FG as well. You'd be suprised what people are boiling it down to, even today, based on anecdotal evidence (about as viable as Red C tbh).
The big danger here is someone like Chris Andrews getting in on transfers in Dublin South East and ousting Humphreys, leaving it to Quinn to maintain some element of representation in one of the biggest constituencies.
Overs/Unders on Independents anyone? Might as well hear the reasoning, looks like throwing darts blindfolded to me.
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Also, just to retract my previous statement, Mannix Flynn is sadly definitively out of the race. Sommerville is the bookies stab at an independent seat but I can't see it happening0 -
A lot of ex-FFs, blueshirt nonsense aside, are actually going to end up voting FG as well. You'd be suprised what people are boiling it down to, even today, based on anecdotal evidence (about as viable as Red C tbh).
Overs/Unders on Independents anyone? Might as well hear the reasoning, looks like throwing darts blindfolded to me.
Its certainly going to be the most salivating elections for many years if not ever.
The potential spreads on seats when you go though it with a tooth comb by constitutency is amazing. FG are anything from 65 - 78, FF are 24 - 36, Lab are 27 to 39, SF are 9 - 15, green 0 - 2 and inds are 3 - 12.
For fun, I'm voting Clifford Reid (kildare south) #1 (I know friends of his and he's a decent skin) and then using my numer 2 as my real vote. (Clifford will be knocked out in round 2, so my number 2 will count)
But an enthralling weekend and possibly week ahead.
I wonder if PP are betting on the day the final candidate will be elected?0 -
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The big danger here is someone like Chris Andrews getting in on transfers in Dublin South East and ousting Humphreys, leaving it to Quinn to maintain some element of representation in one of the biggest constituencies.
Also, just to retract my previous statement, Mannix Flynn is sadly definitively out of the race. Sommerville is the bookies stab at an independent seat but I can't see it happening
Sommerville now into 5/4 from 3/1 at the weekend with Andrews going the other way
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Eoghan Murphy in particular has shortened considerably but is pretty much a cert in, it'll be first four past the post in Dublin South East.Also, just to retract my previous statement, Mannix Flynn is sadly definitively out of the race. Sommerville is the bookies stab at an independent seat but I can't see it happening
- Murphy as first in was a surprise, but I'd say a lot of the more conscientious FG voters gave him first choice over Creighton thanks to her same-sex marriage gaff during the week... Great to have two Labour TD's in the area.Judging by the amount of independents who aren't going to get in, I'd postulate that a tonne of transfer votes will end up with Fine Gael and would strongly feel they'd be somewhere between 75 and 80 seats. They certainly will get no less than 72.
68 seats at the moment. Another 3 seats to come from Wicklow, and I'd guess another 2 or 3 overall to bring up to around 75.Batchik/Hanafin are basically duking it out at this stage in DL/Rathdown over the Pro-Life/Pro-Choice debate - Batchik being held up as the biggest abortionist in the Dail and the Hanafin losing credibility over her Vincent Browne performance last night.
Batchik/Hanafin put themselves completely out of contention through in-fighting etc... Pity about Batchik, but glad to see that self-serving bitch Hanafin ousted. Did NOT expect to see Mary M-O'Connor get 16% in a four seater to be honest!Luke Flanigan in Roscommon, South Leitrim is 10/11 and would be a very strong option for a seat. He's got every student vote in the constituency on a pro-cannabis ballot, strong ties with the community, has been councillor twice and has strong grassroots support amongst traditional farmers, especially over the turf-cutting yoke. He's also the current mayor of Roscommon. Delighted he got in regardless. Price wasn't good enough, but it'll be brilliant seeing him in the Dail.
Hope everyone had fun and VOTED.
Wonder will PP give me odds on Kenny to be ousted as Taoiseach before July...0 -
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