Constituency Betting

jimi_t2

Although the odds are an absolute shambles across the board (1/40 in a few places) there's some moderate value to be had.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-government?ev_oc_grp_ids=398451

Eoghan Murphy in particular has shortened considerably but is pretty much a cert in, it'll be first four past the post in Dublin South East. Thats about as good as the value will get, I certainly wouldn't put Creighton at more than 1/5. Andrews hasn't a hope and will keep drifiting (something like 12% of the vote in polls) - I've heard anecdotal evidence of his canvassers being chased down the street around Rathmines. I'd love if there was some way of doing a ''predict the four seats'' betting to try and get better odds - obviously you can't do accumulators.

Dublin South-East

---

Ruairi Quinn (Lab)
1/33
Lucinda Creighton (FG)
1/20
Kevin Humphreys (Lab)
3/10
Eoghan Murphy (FG)
8/13
Chris Andrews (FF)
evens

Eoghan Murphy @ 8/13 is the only bet here worth bothering with

ScareGilly

I'm going to bet my house on Michael Ring and Enda Kenny to get in in Mayo, great odds! :rolleyes:

teekayd25

Best value I'm seeing at the moment is Dan Boyle at 12/1 in Cork SC. It's gonna be a very open 5-seater and I can actually see him sneaking in.

DJKendo

Phil Prendergast at 7/4 in South Tipp is great value.

Mansergh won't get his seat back. Hayes will definitely get his. and then it's a toss up between Healy, McGrath and Prendergast, but I think Prendergast and Healy will nick the other 2.

ninebeanrows

Just ran through,

the 3 seater books are running around 370-400% :eek:

jimi_t2

I know, its a joke but they're the only show in town.

Luke Flanigan in Roscommon, South Leitrim is 10/11 and would be a very strong option for a seat. He's got every student vote in the constituency on a pro-cannabis ballot, strong ties with the community, has been councillor twice and has strong grassroots support amongst traditional farmers, especially over the turf-cutting yoke. He's also the current mayor of Roscommon.

Problem is, as someone else pointed out

The main problem in R-SL is that the non FG-FF vote is being split three ways between John Kelly (Lab), Ming (Ind), and the Roscommon Hospital Action Committee candidate. The status of the hospital is a big issue, they already had a TD (Tom Foxe) elected on this issue in 1989 and 1992 and they will do well. It is the political hot potato in Roscommon county at least and all parties are making various promises on it. Parish pump politics at its best.

Also, the more conservative voters negate him because of cannabis activism in the past. Pity as he's actually one of the most honest and progressive politicans in the country.

At 3/1 I'd lump on him, but at 11/10 he's only worth an interest bet.

Weathercheck wrote: »

Just ran through,

the 3 seater books are running around 370-400% :eek:

Exactly why this is more a bit of fun than anything else. Should really be in the ''novelty bet'' section of the site tbh :rolleyes:

finbarrk

I have this bet done. To get elected, O'Cuiv in W.Galway, Healy Rea in S. Kerry and P. Breen and Carey in Clare. About 4/5.

DJKendo

finbarrk wrote: »

I have this bet done. To get elected, O'Cuiv in W.Galway, Healy Rea in S. Kerry and P. Breen and Carey in Clare. About 4/5.

where did you do a treble?
paddy power only offer singles

finbarrk

DJKendo wrote: »

where did you do a treble?
paddy power only offer singles

My local bookmaker. It's an accumulator because there are 4.

minty16

Where/Who is your local bookmaker?

finbarrk

In Clare. He doesn't have an office. I have €1k on it.

liogairmhordain

are any bookies taking bets on who wll top the poll in certain constituencies?
anyone have odds for highest number of first preferences in the country as a whole?

jimi_t2

Any bookies in Dublin take prop bets like that? Have some 10/20 constituency accumulators that I'd love to get odds for

wicklowdub

Weathercheck wrote: »

Just ran through,

the 3 seater books are running around 370-400% :eek:

Thats an over-round of about 125%, bearing in mind the nature of the market thats about as good as it gets.

Gavin "shels"

Does anyone know if a William Gorman is running for the election in Dublin? Not sure what constitency but he'll be an independent.

wicklowdub

Gavin shels wrote: »

Does anyone know if a William Gorman is running for the election in Dublin? Not sure what constitency but he'll be an independent.

Here

Wexford1798

jimi_t2 wrote: »

I know, its a joke but they're the only show in town.
:rolleyes:

Not true. Try betfair. Percentage book is rarely over 10%. Lots of money traded on FF seat total (over €12,000)

http://sports.betfair.com/

Also try Sports spread. Top site and spread betting is by far the best way to to take a position in politcal markets. Easy site to join.
http://www.sportsspread.com/Betting/Markets_List.aspx?event=133

Gavin "shels"

Any sites offering multiples on the constituency betting, PP only have singles only.

modmuffin

Dublin South

Peter Matthews is 9/4 looks decent value.
(he's 2nd ater Shane Ross in the boards.ie/vote poll)

ghosttown

Since I'll be probably be sitting in looking at the results coming in, I want to put 5 x €20 singles, for interest.
Currently thinking Ming Flanagan in Roscommon at 10/11, and Sommerville in Dublin at 5/2.

Any others around the evens mark looking good value ?

Want to break even at least , any extra will add to the Cheltenham coffers !

ghosttown

Have picked 2 more €20 bets....
FF to get 25 or more seats - 5/4 (don't want this to happen, but think it will)
Greens to get a seat - 6/4 - think one of them will scrape in towards the end, Ryan or Gormley perhaps....

That's 4, still looking for one more.

DJKendo

ghosttown wrote: »

Have picked 2 more €20 bets....
FF to get 25 or more seats - 5/4 (don't want this to happen, but think it will)
Greens to get a seat - 6/4 - think one of them will scrape in towards the end, Ryan or Gormley perhaps....

That's 4, still looking for one more.

The Greens should be safe to get a seat. Trevor Sargeant should get 1.

Phil Prendergast who I tipped at the start of this thread to get elected in South Tipp is now 8/11 ...she was 7/4 when I tipped her. Still think 8/11 is good value cause she is a near certainty.

dotsflan

DJKendo wrote: »

The Greens should be safe to get a seat. Trevor Sargeant should get 1.

Phil Prendergast who I tipped at the start of this thread to get elected in South Tipp is now 8/11 ...she was 7/4 when I tipped her. Still think 8/11 is good value cause she is a near certainty.

phil prendergast is still 2/1 with boyles

UrbanSea

Michael Colreavy in Sligo could be worth a few quid at 9/4.

Gavin "shels"

Mannix Flynn in Dublin South East @ 6/1 is my outside bet.

8-10

Richard Boyd-Barrett (PBP) is 2/1 with powers. I don't support his politics at all but he's gained quite a bit of popularity with strong local initiatives over the past few years.

In 2007 he narrowly lost out on a seat to Green's Ciaran Cuffe, whom he actually got more 1st preference votes than at that time. Cuffe is certain to lose his seat this time around along with at least 1 of the 2 FF seats - Mary Hannafin or Barry Andrews IMO.

If I was calling Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown today I would guess at:

1. Eamonn Gilmore (LAB)
2. Sean Barrett (FG)
3. Mary Hannafin (FF)
4. Richard Boyd-Barrett (PBP)

...with Ivana Bacik (LAB), Mary Mitchell O'Connor (FG), Barry Andrews (FF), and Ciaran Cuffe (GREEN) being the next 4.

If this was still a 5-seater constituency I'd say Boyd Barrett for sure, but now that it's only 4 and with a lot of big hitters around I think that after shoe-ins Gilmore and Sean Barrett (both 1/100 with PP!) it's going to be interesting to see how the other 2 seats break down. I think Hannafin might keep her seat as FF always were stong here, but Andrews and Cuffe will be out and it's whether the remaining LAB and FG candidates get enough 1st prefs (they will get more later prefs) to challenge Boyd Barrett who should get a couple of thousand 1st prefs in places like Ballybrack where he is generally camped out and popular with the locals.

His Save the Shoreline (or whatever he calls it) initiative with the DL shorefront was also quite popular and an endorsement from singer Christy Moore who played a sold out concert last week in Dun Laoghaire in support of Boyd Barrett, means I definitely see value in the 2/1 offered considering the tough odds elsewhere.

shaggykev

He was odds on(i think 1-3) a week ago

I thought it was a terrible price. They were 6/1 for People for Profit to get no seats. Was thinking of backing it as I think Barrett is a moron with moronic policies(Don't cut anything, Tax Wealth nonsense)

Not from Dublin but spoke to a lad from Dun Laoighaire who is wel connected and he said he would def get in as he was doing really well on the ground so i stupidly listened and gave it a miss


Powers are now 5-4 from 6-1 they win no seats

Guttted. Moral of the story, listen to your own instincts

ninebeanrows

I like Hanafin not to get a seat at 6/4

Splitting 15% of the vote between 2 candidates will be tough!

dabestman1

Anyone think the socialist party just to get 1 Seat is good value @ 11/2, not too sure clare daly will get in but joe higgins will. Any thoughts?

Wexford1798

UrbanSea wrote: »

Michael Colreavy in Sligo could be worth a few quid at 9/4.

+1. Look out for John Brady in Wicklow at 5/2 also. I don't want to see him elected but the cold hard facts are: Brady is going to be a TD.

onekeano

Gavin shels wrote: »

Mannix Flynn in Dublin South East @ 6/1 is my outside bet.

As Bertie would say Mannix is getting outsideier all the time - now 10/1

Roy

8-10

dabestman1 wrote: »

Anyone think the socialist party just to get 1 Seat is good value @ 11/2, not too sure clare daly will get in but joe higgins will. Any thoughts?

good spot, i see value at that price alright, 2 still the most likely but I don't see them getting many transfers so could be hard to call.

dabestman1

really thinkiing about lumping a few bob on the 1 seat, make it interesting on sat, cant see any other value in the market, any other tips?

UrbanSea

dabestman1 wrote: »

really thinkiing about lumping a few bob on the 1 seat, make it interesting on sat, cant see any other value in the market, any other tips?

I lumped on Michael Colreavy in Sligo. 11/10 with Boyles,took the 9/4 with PP.Article in the Sligo Weekender has him number 2,number 1 on the boards poll.

UrbanSea

Wexford1798 wrote: »

+1. Look out for John Brady in Wicklow at 5/2 also. I don't want to see him elected but the cold hard facts are: Brady is going to be a TD.

Did you back it yourself?

UrbanSea

Declan Bree at 10/1 with PP in Sligo is worth a few quid. Gonna be close for the third seat. Not a gaurantee but odds are too big for that.

Wexford1798

UrbanSea wrote: »

Did you back it yourself?

yes. €40 at 4.5
http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=102275137&selectionId=2347719&timeZone=Europe/London&locale=en&region=IRL&brand=betfair&currency=EUR

here's the link to the main market
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=102275137&ex=1&origin=MRL

BQQ

declan breathnach could be worth a bet @11/4 in Louth.

traditionally 2 FF seats in Louth - not this time obviously, but I think there's still a FF seat here.

With Kirk as ceann comhairle and D Ahern retired, where is the core FF vote going?
With the first 3 in the betting based in south louth, the other FF candidate has a fight on his hands not to be eliminated early.
Dundalk will want someone local to get in and i think he'll pick up Ahern's core vote.
I fancy him to scrape through at the expense of the labour party.

UrbanSea

Wexford1798 wrote: »

yes. €40 at 4.5
http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=102275137&selectionId=2347719&timeZone=Europe/London&locale=en&region=IRL&brand=betfair&currency=EUR

here's the link to the main market
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=102275137&ex=1&origin=MRL

I've an uncle down in Wexford,must see what he says.
Will throw a few bean on if I win a few quid today.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Richard Boyd-Barrett (PBP) is 2/1 with powers. I don't support his politics at all but he's gained quite a bit of popularity with strong local initiatives over the past few years.

In 2007 he narrowly lost out on a seat to Green's Ciaran Cuffe, whom he actually got more 1st preference votes than at that time. Cuffe is certain to lose his seat this time around along with at least 1 of the 2 FF seats - Mary Hannafin or Barry Andrews IMO.

If I was calling Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown today I would guess at:

1. Eamonn Gilmore (LAB)
2. Sean Barrett (FG)
3. Mary Hannafin (FF)
4. Richard Boyd-Barrett (PBP)

Ivan Yates on Newstalk called it similar to me this morning - http://media.newstalk.ie/extra/2094/popup

He's gone:

1. Eamonn Gilmore (LAB)
2. Sean Barrett (FG)
3. Richard Boyd-Barrett (PBP)
4. Mary Hannafin (FF)

...so obviously thinking RBB has a better chance than I'm claiming. He agrees that Gilmore's transfers will struggle to get Bacik elected (4/5 with PP) and thinks that without her Hannafin will just get in (evens) with support from the women's vote.

Boyd Barrett slightly shorter than when I posted before, now 7/4, and Hannafin lengthened from 8/13 to 1/1 which makes her attractive now too.

Definitely think one of the 2 will get in, Hannafin is a big name in what has been a strong FF constituency since I started voting, Boyd-Barrett should lead the protest vote with a strong first pref.

91011

PP have FG to win 68-71 seats at 6/1 - was at 10/1 but I put a fairly decent wad on it.

Still 6/1 is good value.

I've gone through every constitutency and can't see more than 73 seats on a good day for FG, I'm guessing at 69/70. It would take a bad day to be 67 or under.

UrbanSea

How much is a decent wad if you don't mind me asking?

91011

300 online and the same again in their newbridge branch - branch had to make 3 calls before accepting - seems politics comes under "sports" in pp:D

supremenovice

Brian Lenihan is 10/11 to get a seat in Dublin West.
Its full of political stars like Varadker and Joan Burton but surely hes too big a casualty in a 4 seater.
Im gettin a bit of that 10/11.

Also fancy Mary Hanafin and Eamon Ryan in their respective constituancies.

ninebeanrows

I have come up with my conclusions.

FF will do awful, pathetic.

Fiann Fail i anticipate meltdown with them getting: 25 seats

Labour to do much better than anticipated at the moment: 40

Fine Gael not to do as good as some expect: 70

Sinn Fein: 12

Greens: 2

Others: 17

91011

Weathercheck wrote: »

Fine Gael not to do as good as some expect: 70

:D:D Here's hoping.

jimi_t2

Judging by the amount of independents who aren't going to get in, I'd postulate that a tonne of transfer votes will end up with Fine Gael and would strongly feel they'd be somewhere between 75 and 80 seats. They certainly will get no less than 72.

Batchik/Hanafin are basically duking it out at this stage in DL/Rathdown over the Pro-Life/Pro-Choice debate - Batchik being held up as the biggest abortionist in the Dail and the Hanafin losing credibility over her Vincent Browne performance last night.

Lenihan in Dublin West isn't bad price wise, but I'd be wary of Patrick Nutly sneaking in (hope he does tbh). Also, backing the only TD actually working for the IMF this election... you've got brass ones mate!

Raskolnikov

I think Lenihan at 10/11 is a decent price, I would have thought it would have been more like 1/2.

91011

jimi_t2 wrote: »

Judging by the amount of independents who aren't going to get in, I'd postulate that a tonne of transfer votes will end up with Fine Gael and would strongly feel they'd be somewhere between 75 and 80 seats. They certainly will get no less than 72.

I'm not so sure about that. The FG voter will vote immediately for FG with 1 2 3, same goes for SF & PBP & socialists. Supporters of left parties generally tend to vote #1 for that party and then 2 for similar.

So if a SF gets knocked out, second prefs will go to similar parties.


In the case of pure independents such as Clifford Reid in Kildare south, they may get the core FF protest vote and then when eliminated a lot more of their transfers will go to FF & Lab.

Overall, I expect bith FF & Lab to do well from transfers, but FG to get a very good 1st pref.

jimi_t2

91011 wrote: »

Overall, I expect bith FF & Lab to do well from transfers, but FG to get a very good 1st pref.

As a general trend for strategic voting, I'd expect Labour to be getting quite a few first preferences in their traditional bastions and FG to be getting more 2nd and 3rd due to the ''Ah but they're in anyway'' attitude.

A lot of ex-FFs, blueshirt nonsense aside, are actually going to end up voting FG as well. You'd be suprised what people are boiling it down to, even today, based on anecdotal evidence (about as viable as Red C tbh ).

The big danger here is someone like Chris Andrews getting in on transfers in Dublin South East and ousting Humphreys, leaving it to Quinn to maintain some element of representation in one of the biggest constituencies.

Overs/Unders on Independents anyone? Might as well hear the reasoning, looks like throwing darts blindfolded to me.

EDIT:

Also, just to retract my previous statement, Mannix Flynn is sadly definitively out of the race. Sommerville is the bookies stab at an independent seat but I can't see it happening

91011

jimi_t2 wrote: »

A lot of ex-FFs, blueshirt nonsense aside, are actually going to end up voting FG as well. You'd be suprised what people are boiling it down to, even today, based on anecdotal evidence (about as viable as Red C tbh ).


Overs/Unders on Independents anyone? Might as well hear the reasoning, looks like throwing darts blindfolded to me.

Its certainly going to be the most salivating elections for many years if not ever.

The potential spreads on seats when you go though it with a tooth comb by constitutency is amazing. FG are anything from 65 - 78, FF are 24 - 36, Lab are 27 to 39, SF are 9 - 15, green 0 - 2 and inds are 3 - 12.

For fun, I'm voting Clifford Reid (kildare south) #1 (I know friends of his and he's a decent skin) and then using my numer 2 as my real vote. (Clifford will be knocked out in round 2, so my number 2 will count)

But an enthralling weekend and possibly week ahead.

I wonder if PP are betting on the day the final candidate will be elected?