Constituency Betting

jimi_t2 · 04-02-2011 1:27pm #1

Although the odds are an absolute shambles across the board (1/40 in a few places) there's some moderate value to be had.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-government?ev_oc_grp_ids=398451

Eoghan Murphy in particular has shortened considerably but is pretty much a cert in, it'll be first four past the post in Dublin South East. Thats about as good as the value will get, I certainly wouldn't put Creighton at more than 1/5. Andrews hasn't a hope and will keep drifiting (something like 12% of the vote in polls) - I've heard anecdotal evidence of his canvassers being chased down the street around Rathmines. I'd love if there was some way of doing a ''predict the four seats'' betting to try and get better odds - obviously you can't do accumulators.

Dublin South-East

Ruairi Quinn (Lab)
1/33
Lucinda Creighton (FG)
1/20
Kevin Humphreys (Lab)
3/10
Eoghan Murphy (FG)
8/13
Chris Andrews (FF)
evens

Eoghan Murphy @ 8/13 is the only bet here worth bothering with

ScareGilly · 04-02-2011 6:41pm

I'm going to bet my house on Michael Ring and Enda Kenny to get in in Mayo, great odds! :rolleyes:

teekayd25 · 05-02-2011 12:55pm

Best value I'm seeing at the moment is Dan Boyle at 12/1 in Cork SC. It's gonna be a very open 5-seater and I can actually see him sneaking in.

DJKendo · 06-02-2011 12:04am

Phil Prendergast at 7/4 in South Tipp is great value.

Mansergh won't get his seat back. Hayes will definitely get his. and then it's a toss up between Healy, McGrath and Prendergast, but I think Prendergast and Healy will nick the other 2.

ninebeanrows · 08-02-2011 1:03am

Just ran through,

the 3 seater books are running around 370-400% :eek:

jimi_t2 · 08-02-2011 4:45am

I know, its a joke but they're the only show in town.

Luke Flanigan in Roscommon, South Leitrim is 10/11 and would be a very strong option for a seat. He's got every student vote in the constituency on a pro-cannabis ballot, strong ties with the community, has been councillor twice and has strong grassroots support amongst traditional farmers, especially over the turf-cutting yoke. He's also the current mayor of Roscommon.

Problem is, as someone else pointed out

The main problem in R-SL is that the non FG-FF vote is being split three ways between John Kelly (Lab), Ming (Ind), and the Roscommon Hospital Action Committee candidate. The status of the hospital is a big issue, they already had a TD (Tom Foxe) elected on this issue in 1989 and 1992 and they will do well. It is the political hot potato in Roscommon county at least and all parties are making various promises on it. Parish pump politics at its best.

Also, the more conservative voters negate him because of cannabis activism in the past. Pity as he's actually one of the most honest and progressive politicans in the country.

At 3/1 I'd lump on him, but at 11/10 he's only worth an interest bet.

Weathercheck wrote: »

Just ran through,

the 3 seater books are running around 370-400% :eek:

Exactly why this is more a bit of fun than anything else. Should really be in the ''novelty bet'' section of the site tbh :rolleyes:

finbarrk · 09-02-2011 8:17am

I have this bet done. To get elected, O'Cuiv in W.Galway, Healy Rea in S. Kerry and P. Breen and Carey in Clare. About 4/5.

DJKendo · 09-02-2011 12:56pm

finbarrk wrote: »

I have this bet done. To get elected, O'Cuiv in W.Galway, Healy Rea in S. Kerry and P. Breen and Carey in Clare. About 4/5.

where did you do a treble?
paddy power only offer singles

finbarrk · 09-02-2011 12:58pm

DJKendo wrote: »

where did you do a treble?
paddy power only offer singles

My local bookmaker. It's an accumulator because there are 4.

minty16 · 09-02-2011 1:15pm

Where/Who is your local bookmaker?

finbarrk · 09-02-2011 3:42pm

In Clare. He doesn't have an office. I have €1k on it.

liogairmhordain · 09-02-2011 4:11pm

are any bookies taking bets on who wll top the poll in certain constituencies?
anyone have odds for highest number of first preferences in the country as a whole?

jimi_t2 · 09-02-2011 5:10pm

Any bookies in Dublin take prop bets like that? Have some 10/20 constituency accumulators that I'd love to get odds for

wicklowdub · 10-02-2011 5:46pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Just ran through,

the 3 seater books are running around 370-400% :eek:

Thats an over-round of about 125%, bearing in mind the nature of the market thats about as good as it gets.

Gavin "shels" · 10-02-2011 9:36pm

Does anyone know if a William Gorman is running for the election in Dublin? Not sure what constitency but he'll be an independent.

wicklowdub · 11-02-2011 12:41pm

Gavin shels wrote: »

Does anyone know if a William Gorman is running for the election in Dublin? Not sure what constitency but he'll be an independent.

Here

Wexford1798 · 11-02-2011 3:17pm

jimi_t2 wrote: »

I know, its a joke but they're the only show in town.
:rolleyes:

Not true. Try betfair. Percentage book is rarely over 10%. Lots of money traded on FF seat total (over €12,000)

http://sports.betfair.com/

Also try Sports spread. Top site and spread betting is by far the best way to to take a position in politcal markets. Easy site to join.
http://www.sportsspread.com/Betting/Markets_List.aspx?event=133

Gavin "shels" · 14-02-2011 12:19pm

Any sites offering multiples on the constituency betting, PP only have singles only.

modmuffin · 15-02-2011 9:38pm

Dublin South

Peter Matthews is 9/4 looks decent value.
(he's 2nd ater Shane Ross in the boards.ie/vote poll)

ghosttown · 16-02-2011 5:24pm

Since I'll be probably be sitting in looking at the results coming in, I want to put 5 x €20 singles, for interest.
Currently thinking Ming Flanagan in Roscommon at 10/11, and Sommerville in Dublin at 5/2.

Any others around the evens mark looking good value ?

Want to break even at least

, any extra will add to the Cheltenham coffers !

ghosttown · 18-02-2011 11:34am

Have picked 2 more €20 bets....
FF to get 25 or more seats - 5/4 (don't want this to happen, but think it will)
Greens to get a seat - 6/4 - think one of them will scrape in towards the end, Ryan or Gormley perhaps....

That's 4, still looking for one more.

DJKendo · 18-02-2011 12:28pm

ghosttown wrote: »

Have picked 2 more €20 bets....
FF to get 25 or more seats - 5/4 (don't want this to happen, but think it will)
Greens to get a seat - 6/4 - think one of them will scrape in towards the end, Ryan or Gormley perhaps....

That's 4, still looking for one more.

The Greens should be safe to get a seat. Trevor Sargeant should get 1.

Phil Prendergast who I tipped at the start of this thread to get elected in South Tipp is now 8/11 ...she was 7/4 when I tipped her. Still think 8/11 is good value cause she is a near certainty.

dotsflan · 18-02-2011 9:24pm

DJKendo wrote: »

The Greens should be safe to get a seat. Trevor Sargeant should get 1.

Phil Prendergast who I tipped at the start of this thread to get elected in South Tipp is now 8/11 ...she was 7/4 when I tipped her. Still think 8/11 is good value cause she is a near certainty.

phil prendergast is still 2/1 with boyles

UrbanSea · 19-02-2011 2:55am

Michael Colreavy in Sligo could be worth a few quid at 9/4.

Gavin "shels" · 19-02-2011 3:34am

Mannix Flynn in Dublin South East @ 6/1 is my outside bet.

8-10 · 20-02-2011 4:28pm

Richard Boyd-Barrett (PBP) is 2/1 with powers. I don't support his politics at all but he's gained quite a bit of popularity with strong local initiatives over the past few years.

In 2007 he narrowly lost out on a seat to Green's Ciaran Cuffe, whom he actually got more 1st preference votes than at that time. Cuffe is certain to lose his seat this time around along with at least 1 of the 2 FF seats - Mary Hannafin or Barry Andrews IMO.

If I was calling Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown today I would guess at:

1. Eamonn Gilmore (LAB)
2. Sean Barrett (FG)
3. Mary Hannafin (FF)
4. Richard Boyd-Barrett (PBP)

...with Ivana Bacik (LAB), Mary Mitchell O'Connor (FG), Barry Andrews (FF), and Ciaran Cuffe (GREEN) being the next 4.

If this was still a 5-seater constituency I'd say Boyd Barrett for sure, but now that it's only 4 and with a lot of big hitters around I think that after shoe-ins Gilmore and Sean Barrett (both 1/100 with PP!) it's going to be interesting to see how the other 2 seats break down. I think Hannafin might keep her seat as FF always were stong here, but Andrews and Cuffe will be out and it's whether the remaining LAB and FG candidates get enough 1st prefs (they will get more later prefs) to challenge Boyd Barrett who should get a couple of thousand 1st prefs in places like Ballybrack where he is generally camped out and popular with the locals.

His Save the Shoreline (or whatever he calls it) initiative with the DL shorefront was also quite popular and an endorsement from singer Christy Moore who played a sold out concert last week in Dun Laoghaire in support of Boyd Barrett, means I definitely see value in the 2/1 offered considering the tough odds elsewhere.

shaggykev · 21-02-2011 11:09am

He was odds on(i think 1-3) a week ago

I thought it was a terrible price. They were 6/1 for People for Profit to get no seats. Was thinking of backing it as I think Barrett is a moron with moronic policies(Don't cut anything, Tax Wealth nonsense)

Not from Dublin but spoke to a lad from Dun Laoighaire who is wel connected and he said he would def get in as he was doing really well on the ground so i stupidly listened and gave it a miss

Powers are now 5-4 from 6-1 they win no seats

Guttted. Moral of the story, listen to your own instincts

ninebeanrows · 21-02-2011 12:58pm

I like Hanafin not to get a seat at 6/4

Splitting 15% of the vote between 2 candidates will be tough!

dabestman1 · 22-02-2011 12:49pm

Anyone think the socialist party just to get 1 Seat is good value @ 11/2, not too sure clare daly will get in but joe higgins will. Any thoughts?

Wexford1798 · 22-02-2011 3:58pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

Michael Colreavy in Sligo could be worth a few quid at 9/4.

+1. Look out for John Brady in Wicklow at 5/2 also. I don't want to see him elected but the cold hard facts are: Brady is going to be a TD.

onekeano · 22-02-2011 6:55pm

Gavin shels wrote: »

Mannix Flynn in Dublin South East @ 6/1 is my outside bet.

As Bertie would say Mannix is getting outsideier all the time - now 10/1

Roy

Constituency Betting

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