Galway West General Election

lezza

i will vote sinn fein because they are the only party who are trying to get our natural resources back, UP TO 10 BILLION 'BARRELS OF OIL EQUILEVENT' OF OIL AND GAS LIES IN IRELANDS ATLANTIC MARGIN (SEE WWW.DCENR.GOV.IE)

THATS WORTH 540 BILLION AT TODAYS PRICES,, GOOD NEWS FOR IRELAND????

NO IN 1987 CORRUPT POLITICIAN RAY BURKE CHANGED THE LAW SO SHELL AND STATOIL OWN THE CORRIB GAS AND WILL SELL IT TO BORD GAIS,

MEDIA BARON TONY O REILLY WHO OWNS PROVIDENCE RESOURCES OWNS HALF OF THE OIL PROSPECTS VALUED AT 50 BILLION OFF DALKEY WHICH IRELAND NEITHER GETS A SHARE OR ROYALTY,
NORWAY WILL BENIFIT MORE FROM IRISH GAS THAN IRELAND WILL, DUE TO SEMI-STATE STATOIL'S 37% STAKE IN CORRIB AND NORWAYS HEALTHIER ATTITUDE TO BIG CORPORATIONS, UNLIKE IRELANDS PLIANT POLITICIANS, WHO HAVE FOUND IT EASIER TO FACE DOWN THE IRISH PUBLIC THAN BIG BUSINESS

THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS CAN BE RENEGOTIIATED LIKE OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE WHY DONT WE, 540 FECKIN BILLION

Sponge Bob

Paddypower Odds Synthetic Series

Seán Kyne the one with the momentum!

Dates 25/1 29/1 01/02 03/02 05/02 20/02

Eamonn O'Cuiv 1/10 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/16 1/14
Frank Fahey 8/13 4/5 6/4 7/4 9/4 4/1
Niall O'Brolcháin 8/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 10/1 16/1
Derek Nolan 1/4 4/9 4/9 4/9 4/9 4/7
Brian Walsh 8/13 2/5 4/11 1/3 1/3 2/7
Trevor O'Clochartaigh 10/1 12/1 12/1 10/1 10/1 14/1
Fidelma Healy-Eames 2/7 2/5 4/9 1/2 1/2 8/15
Hildegarde Naughton 2/1 13/8 7/4 7/4 9/4 3/1
Noel Grealish 1/2 8/15 8/15 4/9 4/9 8/15
Michael Crowe 7/2 7/2 9/2 9/2 10/3 7/2
Mike Cubbard (Ind) 33/1 33/1 33/1 40/1 40/1 40/1
Catherine Connolly 1/2 4/11 4/11 2/5 2/5 2/5
Sean Kyne 5/1 5/1 6/1 6/1 6/1 9/4
Eamon Walsh . 20/1 7/1 5/1 4/1 5/1
Tommy Welby . . . 10/1 10/1 5/1

shaggykev

Think Powers have bought into that highly questionable Sindo Poll

In all honesty it looks liek FG have to take two seats and I'd say Brian Walsh in still in poll position. Fidelma is useless in my opinion but she seems to be the other one by default.

The advertiser poll had Kyne nowhere while Sindo had him topping the poll. While neither might be wrong I see him going out 7th or 8th

He's still 4/1 in a few other bookies

Bobeagleburger

A FF canditate to top the poll.

Wtf

ConnemaraGirl

As predicted yes O'cuiv will take a seat - I used to vote for him. A good man but people need to vote for party rather than person.

Fahey - nope its curtains for him
Welby - nope..
Definetly not voting FF or Sinn Fein

Dan_Solo

ConnemaraGirl wrote: »

As predicted yes O'cuiv will take a seat - I used to vote for him. A good man but people need to vote for party rather than person.

A good man wouldn't be in Fianna Fail.

ConnemaraGirl

Dan_Solo wrote: »

A good man wouldn't be in Fianna Fail.

Anyhow I will not get into a debate on who is good... but no FF will get my vote forever.. along with other families my family has been affected in a big way - and for the first time in all our families memory - my dad will be voting FG - He reckons Kyne and Healy Eames - he reckons the other canditates would not find their way out to Connemara not amind back to Galway.

Roll on polling day! looking forward to new beginnings...

Benbecul97

With FG in the high 30s in the opinion polls, what are the prospects of 3 FG seats here? With Walsh and Healy-Eames looking like they will be elected, could they also carry one of Kyne or Naughton over the line?

There has always been a PD seat here but with PD voters more likely to vote FG, and Grealish linked with returning to FF and the fact that he supported the last few governments, could he lose out to FG?

Anyone have any odds on 3 FG seats?

Time will tell.

Lockstep

I really doubt FG will get 3 seats; their decision to run 4 candidates splits the votes too much.

Ó Cuív is more or less a guaranteed seat.
There are 2 FG seats for sure.


Labour are still doing well in the polls, even without the Michael D factor, Nolan will still be doing well, especially with transfers from Greens and has a party machine behind him.
Connolly has enough of the hard left vote, some from Conamara plus transfers from SF.
Grealish is also likely to do fairly well.

It'll be between those 3 for the last 2 seats. FG's vote will be split too much (FHE and Grealish will get the Eastern vote, Walsh the city FG vote and Naughton being unlikely to tap these votes enough to get her over the line)
and FG's Irish policy is unpopular in the Gaeltacht with English Conamara lacking the votes to carry him)
With Grealish getting the ex-PD vote and Connolly and Nolan each having their own guaranteed pool of voters, it's extremely unlikely that FG will have the votes to get them a 3rd seat.

bluetree

Lockstep wrote: »

I really doubt FG will get 3 seats; their decision to run 4 candidates splits the votes too much.

Ó Cuív is more or less a guaranteed seat.
There are 2 FG seats for sure.


Labour are still doing well in the polls, even without the Michael D factor, Nolan will still be doing well, especially with transfers from Greens and has a party machine behind him.
Connolly has enough of the hard left vote, some from Conamara plus transfers from SF.
Grealish is also likely to do fairly well.

It'll be between those 3 for the last 2 seats. FG's vote will be split too much (FHE and Grealish will get the Eastern vote, Walsh the city FG vote and Naughton being unlikely to tap these votes enough to get her over the line)
and FG's Irish policy is unpopular in the Gaeltacht with English Conamara lacking the votes to carry him)
With Grealish getting the ex-PD vote and Connolly and Nolan each having their own guaranteed pool of voters, it's extremely unlikely that FG will have the votes to get them a 3rd seat.

Hi Folks

I decided to take a skim through boards and other forums to see what people are saying about the election. One thing is for sure we all have our opinions. some comments are balanced and some are very aggressive towards politics in general. I think we need to take a step back from this and consider things a bit more objectively. We give out about TD's and there wages. but when you consider the hours they work, (roughly 80hours + per week) so after the 100k gross wage they get roughly 65k net. dividing this up by an 80 hr week , it works out @ €16 an hour. roughly average industrial wage. thats the objective part. Personnaly my thoughts are this country has been destroyed by our lack of willingness to take on the vested interests in our public sector. mainly unions & the IMO. We were going ok untill Bertie sold his soul to the unions. Don't get me wrong I'm not anti Union. but what has happened over the last 10/15 years in ireland is a disgrace. For the record i think the result will be:

Walsh A decent guy from what i hear
OCuiv has built enough piers out west
Nolan or Connolly this could be closer than people think
Grealish despite lack of party machine. he has a very strong base and works hard on local issues
5th seat between the loser of the 3rd seat and FHE & HN
Personnaly i won't give FHE anything because she is a nasty piece of work, her own party can't stand her. she's telling lies all over the place. trys to take the credit for things she did nothing for. sorry i was slipping into a rant. i need to breath...

kraggy

How is the quota of 16.67% calculated?

Dan_Solo

bluetree wrote: »

but when you consider the hours they work, (roughly 80hours + per week) so after the 100k gross wage they get roughly 65k net. dividing this up by an 80 hr week , it works out @ €16 an hour. roughly average industrial wage. thats the objective part.

:eek:

Benbecul97

kraggy wrote: »

How is the quota of 16.67% calculated?

The quota is calculated by dividing the valid poll (100%) by one more than the number of seats to be filled.
So in a :
5-seater its 100/6 = 16.67%
4-seater its 100/5 = 20%
3-seater its 100/4 = 25%

R28

I know this list is your prediction but I just had to comment on your assessment of the candidates. Being a 'decent guy' or having built a few piers is not the criteria we should be assessing our potential national representatives.

As for Grealish working hard on local issues...Firstly politicans focusing on local parish pump politics is one of the reasons this country is ****ed, and Grealish as an 'independent' (independent me hole-who was propping up FF for the past few years?) was one of those responsible for focusing on the local at the expense of the national. Secondly I would love to see the evidence of where he was working hard, as quite frankly I haven't heard any thing he has actually done. Was he not one of the TD's who spoke the least in the Dáil?

bluetree wrote: »

Walsh A decent guy from what i hear
OCuiv has built enough piers out west
Nolan or Connolly this could be closer than people think
Grealish despite lack of party machine. he has a very strong base and works hard on local issues
5th seat between the loser of the 3rd seat and FHE & HN
Personnaly i won't give FHE anything because she is a nasty piece of work, her own party can't stand her. she's telling lies all over the place. trys to take the credit for things she did nothing for. sorry i was slipping into a rant. i need to breath...

Zubeneschamali

brendankelly wrote: »

She is going to Repudiate the forign debt.

Newsflash: No, she isn't.

Robbo

brendankelly wrote: »

She is committed to protecting our Natural resources Oil, Gas and forestry. She is going to Repudiate the forign debt.

Why do I get the image of her charging at the Reichstag on her bike, like the Polish cavalry of legend squaring up to a Panzer Division?

ConnemaraGirl

Hi Bluetree
Skimming through boards.ie its obvious you are not a fan of FHE and a hugh fan of walsh. So what I think is the race is closer than you think and Healy-Eames is a threat. I've heard what you have to say about the candidate its your personal opinion which I think is incorrect.

My dad has met healy-eames in connemara in the past at her clinics and he said that she is a very trust worthy character - and gets the work done. We used to vote o cuiv and this time voting FG instead of FF - We will be voting Healy-EAmes and Kyne for sure. We have not met Walsh or Naughton... By all accounts I hear these are also good people - but kyne and healy- eames have been in FG alot longer and looks like they deserve to be there.

According to thread on Grealish he is very much associated to FF - and what weight can an independent carry - I dunno.. he would certainly win the poster campaign he has so many about.

Nolan will probably do it.. but it will be close.

It will be an interesting Election - I look forward to the results.

bluetree wrote: »

Hi Folks

I think ocuiv is for sure. Its tipped that walsh and healy-eames to take 2 seats and after that its anyones game.. It will be an exc
How about Walsh A decent guy from what i hear
OCuiv has built enough piers out west
Nolan or Connolly this could be closer than people think
Grealish despite lack of party machine. he has a very strong base and works hard on local issues
5th seat between the loser of the 3rd seat and FHE & HN
Personnaly i won't give FHE anything because she is a nasty piece of work, her own party can't stand her. she's telling lies all over the place. trys to take the credit for things she did nothing for. sorry i was slipping into a rant. i need to breath...

Dan_Solo

Could anything be sillier than voting for O'Cuiv because "he's great for the Gaeltacht" when there isn't a snowball in hell that he'll be a minister in any way shape or form nevermind of the Gaeltacht after the next election?

Lockstep

I've met FHE 3 times and always came away with a poor impression of her. Very condescending and seems like your typical parish pump politician. Seems more concerned with who I'm related to and my personal life than what her policies are.

1sttruth

question is.... do you vote for the candidate who best serves your interest,regional or national?
this,to my mind,is a fundamental problem with our electoral system.

c_man

1sttruth wrote: »

question is.... do you vote for the candidate who best serves your interest,regional or national?
this,to my mind,is a fundamental problem with our electoral system.

Well there are those who says that sorting out the country has to start at the grassroots (think Michael Healy Rae was on about this ), in essence the regional interest will serve the national.

Then you have those who argue that you take care of the nation and your region will prosper.

Whilst it's easy to dismiss the first (and I'd be totally guilty of that), I think back to what Ming said about hospital services in his area. Something along the lines of fighting to keep their regional because of not wanting "our kids to die on the road to Galway."

Imo a clearer divide is needed between local and national government,

bluetree

ConnemaraGirl wrote: »

Hi Bluetree
Skimming through boards.ie its obvious you are not a fan of FHE and a hugh fan of walsh. So what I think is the race is closer than you think and Healy-Eames is a threat. I've heard what you have to say about the candidate its your personal opinion which I think is incorrect.

My dad has met healy-eames in connemara in the past at her clinics and he said that she is a very trust worthy character - and gets the work done. We used to vote o cuiv and this time voting FG instead of FF - We will be voting Healy-EAmes and Kyne for sure. We have not met Walsh or Naughton... By all accounts I hear these are also good people - but kyne and healy- eames have been in FG alot longer and looks like they deserve to be there.

According to thread on Grealish he is very much associated to FF - and what weight can an independent carry - I dunno.. he would certainly win the poster campaign he has so many about.

Nolan will probably do it.. but it will be close.

It will be an interesting Election - I look forward to the results.

Hi Connemara girl

i take your point about FHE been around awhile. . but BW shouldn't be anywhere near her. we should be talking about who is getting the 2nd FG seat. the fact that the 1st FG seat is in play says alot about FHE.about your dad having a good experience, from what i've heard he must have caught her on a good day. i can only speak from my own perspective of course.but i've just heard too many negative things about her. oranmore people and FG people. But hey are we lucky to be able to have this discussion. look at the poor sods in north africa. We'll know most of the answers on Sat evening

bluetree

When you compare Ireland with most western countrys we have very easy access to our politicians.

This is the problem. I looked at some of the comments about local vs national interests.I don't think our politicians have any choice but to work on local issues. if they don't they will be voted out at the next election when they re-apply for their jobs. The system has to change.

What i would propose have the 9 TD's in Galway stay on local issues and get rid of the County & City Councillors. The people we need for the National parliament to be elected in a completely seperate election. they would need to be qualified in the area's that they administer. What do you all think?

ConnemaraGirl

To be quite honest the only negativity around for FHE is on boards.ie - not from anywhere else. MY dad along with alot of others I know have looked up candidates work to-date and what they have done - so he didn't just meet her on a good day. Its based on what she has done and achieved. Along with Kyne. There is also alot of hatred for Catherine Connolly on boards.ie. Surprising...

Look proof of the pudding will be when the people vote on Friday - And I wish them all luck.

bluetree wrote: »

Hi Connemara girl

i take your point about FHE been around awhile. . but BW shouldn't be anywhere near her. we should be talking about who is getting the 2nd FG seat. the fact that the 1st FG seat is in play says alot about FHE.about your dad having a good experience, from what i've heard he must have caught her on a good day. i can only speak from my own perspective of course.but i've just heard too many negative things about her. oranmore people and FG people. But hey are we lucky to be able to have this discussion. look at the poor sods in north africa. We'll know most of the answers on Sat evening

Birroc

I have just read this thread and I am surprised how many people think Grealish is a certainty. Despite his number of posters, I wouldn't be too sure.

Connolly has just lost my preference vote on the bypass issue - it's a no-brainer that Galway needs an outer bypass. Did I read Nolan also does not want a bypass?

I will be giving Eamon Walsh my #1 and maybe some other IND candidates and a few FG after that.

Fahey will not get elected. Zero chance.

bluetree

ConnemaraGirl wrote: »

To be quite honest the only negativity around for FHE is on boards.ie - not from anywhere else. MY dad along with alot of others I know have looked up candidates work to-date and what they have done - so he didn't just meet her on a good day. Its based on what she has done and achieved. Along with Kyne. There is also alot of hatred for Catherine Connolly on boards.ie. Surprising...

Look proof of the pudding will be when the people vote on Friday - And I wish them all luck.

Exactly I think we will agree to differ on this. roll on saturday!:)

Robbo

Birroc wrote: »

Connolly has just lost my preference vote on the bypass issue - it's a no-brainer that Galway needs an outer bypass. Did I read Nolan also does not want a bypass?

Nolan's come out very much in favour of the bypass. He wrote a letter to the Advertiser a few weeks ago to that effect and stating that if we're to properly implement buslanes (and the Monorail/GLUAS) the bypass needs to free up the space on the roads.

Lockstep

ConnemaraGirl wrote: »

To be quite honest the only negativity around for FHE is on boards.ie - not from anywhere else. MY dad along with alot of others I know have looked up candidates work to-date and what they have done - so he didn't just meet her on a good day. Its based on what she has done and achieved. Along with Kyne. There is also alot of hatred for Catherine Connolly on boards.ie. Surprising...

Look proof of the pudding will be when the people vote on Friday - And I wish them all luck.

FHE was getting the same response in NUIG. She spoke terribly at the candidates debate and was lambasted by the student press. I've met her a few times and always came away with a poor impression of her.


Gotta say, I'm hearing a lot of bad things about her on the ground but your anecdotal experiences are completely at odds with my own, and it seems, the rest of the boards.ie posters. By contrast, Naughton is coming across very well.

As for Kyne, feel sorry for the guy. He seems grand and all but the FG Irish policy seems to be going down like a lead balloon in the Gaeltacht.

Adrian009

1sttruth wrote: »

question is.... do you vote for the candidate who best serves your interest,regional or national?
this,to my mind,is a fundamental problem with our electoral system.

Good point.

All politics start locally. Is'nt it a good idea to take care of local issues as well as possible so that they'll be that much less a part of the overall national problems?

Honestly though it does give me pause, especially in days like these.

Keylem

We need to get out there and vote tomorrow, no good complaining about the Government if we didn't vote - we need to get our Country off it's a$$ and back on it's knees again!:D