Property Prices. Just say when...

gurramok

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

Now is the time to buy.

We have hit the bottom in all areas: property prices, job losses, emigration, tax increases and wage cuts.

The news this week about our exports being the best ever show we have finally turned the corner. Some people here are saying this news means nothing, but I don't accept that.

Are you taking the p1ss? Unemployment has still climbed from this time last year despite these booming exports(all MNC lead)

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

You can now buy decent family homes for what we would all agree is good value:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=569798 (very close to the Magna business park)

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=562760 (one of the most sought after addresses in Finglas)

I can challenge you on this, you have to be taking the proverbial. Killinarden is not an area to command 280k for a 3bed.

And neither is Glenhilll, Finglas. I grew up near there and know well it ain't value for money at 265k for a 3bed. Actually another 3bed is asking around 235k there now.

The bottom has not hit yet Sir. (somehow I think you missed a rake of smileys in your post)

Edit: its Late Friday night and did not see the reply from Dory!

brian__foley

who_ru wrote: »

the market is not being allowed to reach it's natural level for many reasons. neither banks nor vendors are anxious to crystallize their loses. NAMA has mothballed many properties around the major urban areas as well as rural areas and does not want to release them to the market for fear of driving down prices further.

Many Vendors are not under pressure to sell because:

1 - I/O Mortgages
2 - Little or no repossessions despite perhaps 100,000+ mortgages in arrears.


Potential buyers are not buying because:

1 - Lack of Credit
2 - Personal indebtedness at very high levels
3 - All but one irish bank not fully or substantially nationalised
4 - Fear of higher interest rates/ poor job security
5 - Likehood of rents continuing to fall

Great points.

It will be interesting to see how actual re-possessions affect things in a knock on sense in relation to un-incumbered properties. I suppose on basic economics if an additional and large scale supply enters the market, one expects a knock on effect on prices generally. On the other hand (and I don't know this) it would be arguable that the market is already saturated by apartments and new-builds at really low prices.

If one assumes (which may be a rubbish assumption) that the bulk of arrears and re-possessions will relate to "tiger" purchases - i.e. apartments and new-builds in new estates, it could follow that when the moratorium passes, one will only see a further drop in that particular aspect of the market.

I'd also add to the buyer side the vendor's "passing on" of the stamp duty cut as well as the lack of future mortgage interest tax relief at source.

Maybe we have a bit more to go before we see bottom.

delllat

brian__foley wrote: »

Great points.

It will be interesting to see how actual re-possessions affect things in a knock on sense in relation to un-incumbered properties. I suppose on basic economics if an additional and large scale supply enters the market, one expects a knock on effect on prices generally. On the other hand (and I don't know this) it would be arguable that the market is already saturated by apartments and new-builds at really low prices.

If one assumes (which may be a rubbish assumption) that the bulk of arrears and re-possessions will relate to "tiger" purchases - i.e. apartments and new-builds in new estates, it could follow that when the moratorium passes, one will only see a further drop in that particular aspect of the market.

I'd also add to the buyer side the vendor's "passing on" of the stamp duty cut as well as the lack of future mortgage interest tax relief at source.

Maybe we have a bit more to go before we see bottom.

i think the prices have a decent bit to fall yet ,theres no way these houses with their chalkboard walls and shoebox apartments are worth their respective asking prices

nobody is willing to cut their losses and admit they bought a vastly overpriced house ...........yet

brian__foley

delllat wrote: »

i think the prices have a decent bit to fall yet ,theres no way these houses with their chalkboard walls and shoebox apartments are worth their respective asking prices

nobody is willing to cut their losses and admit they bought a vastly overpriced house ...........yet

True, but are those the houses we really want to purchase for future families etc? I'm hedging bets on a slower, but still obvious decline in prices on "good" houses in Dublin city.

delllat

brian__foley wrote: »

True, but are those the houses we really want to purchase for future families etc? I'm hedging bets on a slower, but still obvious decline in prices on "good" houses in Dublin city.

i remember working on various sites including the prized "spencer dock" development ,adamstown and various others in swords and all around co dublin

at the height of the madness there was studios going to be "worth 400K - 500K " according to our boss

i have no idea if they sold them all but i wouldnt be surprised if they got that price for the city centre dublin 1 / dublin 2 areas and a bit less for the ones a few miles outside the centre

dory

What do you mean by studio? Like a bedsit in which the bed and kitchen are in the same room?

liger

I agreed a price on a property mid/late Nov and am waiting on contracts to finalise the purchase. Since that house went sale agreed there has been approx 450 properties in dublin go sale agreed listed on Myhome, so the market is not dead.

Mr. Loverman

liger wrote: »

I agreed a price on a property mid/late Nov and am waiting on contracts to finalise the purchase. Since that house went sale agreed there has been approx 450 properties in dublin go sale agreed listed on Myhome, so the market is not dead.

Yeah, lots of thick people in Dublin!

liger

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

Yeah, lots of thick people in Dublin!

Maybe a lot of good bargains to be had. if your not up to the neck in loans and cc debts and neg equity,

dory

liger wrote: »

Maybe a lot of good bargains to be had. if your not up to the neck in loans and cc debts and neg equity,

........yet

(sorry couldn't resist - good luck with your new pad)

Mr. Loverman

liger wrote: »

Maybe a lot of good bargains to be had. if your not up to the neck in loans and cc debts and neg equity,

Good bargains?!

Show me one good bargain on daft.

D1stant

delllat wrote: »

i remember working on various sites including the prized "spencer dock" development ,adamstown and various others in swords and all around co dublin QUOTE]

And what was the quality like? I've heard of so many shortcuts and sloppy builds.

Mcinerney are finally going bust- such a shame. I'm currently renting a Mcinerney Semi. Plasterboard between the houses and the roof looks like it was constructed by a (untrained) 4 year old. The houses in this estate are on daft between 265k and 170k - all practically identical. No play areas, no shops, just a load of **** houses that continue to fall in value.

If we learn anything from this - its to enforce proper urban planning with proper building codes. If this was Scandinavia, these houses would have been torn down after the first inspection, and the builder brought to court

yosemite_sam

D1stant wrote: »

I know this is a recurring theme, but I have been staring at the property situation for 18 months now and am stumped

Myhome issued their Q4 report today

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/advice/whats-new/myhome-ie-property-barometer-q4-2010-2665

Prices are still falling at a pretty good clip, on average 13% last year, but the rate varies a lot by county

I am looking to buy something like a 50-100 year old 4 bed detatched in Limerick city/suburbs. I see various economists saying things will drop a little more but its probably a good time to buy now. Others are far more pessimistic, saying there will be another 50% reduction to come at least. Both sides are backed up with academic looking data, graphs etc

So its kind of like watching Primetime. Two opposing views, both sounding reasonable, and me none the wiser

What do people think is going to happen in property against the backdrop of our busted little island?

I would not buy anything until the stuff in NAMA starts getting sold, the true price of any property is impossible to gauge with market interference on this scale

ricman

HOW does an estate with no greens, playing space get planning permission,
is that corruption or just incompetence by the council?.thats the type of estate that will fall in value faster than average.

fat__tony

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

Now is the time to buy.

We have hit the bottom in all areas: property prices, job losses, emigration, tax increases and wage cuts.

The news this week about our exports being the best ever show we have finally turned the corner. Some people here are saying this news means nothing, but I don't accept that.

You can now buy decent family homes for what we would all agree is good value:

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=569798 (very close to the Magna business park)

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=562760 (one of the most sought after addresses in Finglas)

I know plenty of people who bought recently and are delighted with their purchases. A few are on rent-2-buy schemes which obviously are great value. For example a friend of mine who was relaxing and who lived with his mother was recently in a fight, which frightened his mother, so she told him to move out of his neighbourhood or go live with his auntie and uncle. He didn't want to do the latter (who would) so he got a cab to a house for sale in a "ghost estate". He pulled up to the house about 7 or 8 and yelled to the cabbie yo homie smell you later. He looked at his kingdom he was finally there to sit on his throne as the prince of bel air.

You're about as funny as cancer.

delllat

dory wrote: »

What do you mean by studio? Like a bedsit in which the bed and kitchen are in the same room?

thats exactly what it was, a glorified bedroom with a kitchen sink and a couple of cupboards

brian__foley

liger wrote: »

I agreed a price on a property mid/late Nov and am waiting on contracts to finalise the purchase. Since that house went sale agreed there has been approx 450 properties in dublin go sale agreed listed on Myhome, so the market is not dead.

I think the real point is what "the" means in "the market". One one view, there are any many markets - i.e. ranges of property which are not necessarily in competition with each other. The group of people who want, say, a high ceilinged two storey Ranelagh property aren't looking for Spencer Dock apartments. The group of people who want a starter cottage in Stoneybatter aren't looking at over-basements on the North Circular Road etc.

My earlier point was just that certain aspects of the market are not yet necessarily infected by a fire-sale mentality (more the pity) and that its somewhat frustrating (but, hey...that's life) to see an asking price set 6-7 months ago stubbornly refuse to move, even though its not moving when others (as is probably inherent to your post) are.

From just a very quick look at the "sale agreed" section on myhome, the first few pages seemed to show up a look of reasonably "new" builds and apartments - have not looked through all 81 pages (yet).

Mr. Loverman

fat__tony wrote: »

You're about as funny as cancer.

And you must be a pretty unhappy guy to feel the need to say something like that...

liger

brian__foley wrote: »

From just a very quick look at the "sale agreed" section on myhome, the first few pages seemed to show up a look of reasonably "new" builds and apartments - have not looked through all 81 pages (yet).

Well flicking past the pages to see where my one is a can tell you there is a wide vareity of properties in many areas.


And Mr.Loverman, your idea of a bargin might be different to others when you take into consideration of family needs, location, budget and the cost of renting in that area etc....

JoeyJJ

I have a search in daft which is monitored by my propertybee firefox extension, the search is mostly 3+ beds in areas of SCD withinn a reasonable price bracket. I thought checking after xmas there would have been a few decreases however not one lowered since 22 Dec or so. In fairness there are a few in the search that reduced pre xmas and are a few properties with 2-4 drops.

I did think there would be some drops, also only 1 properties entered my search criteria and that was not a new one it used to be priced about my asking criteria and never should have been

robd

JoeyJJ wrote: »

I have a search in daft which is monitored by my propertybee firefox extension, the search is mostly 3+ beds in areas of SCD withinn a reasonable price bracket. I thought checking after xmas there would have been a few decreases however not one lowered since 22 Dec or so. In fairness there are a few in the search that reduced pre xmas and are a few properties with 2-4 drops.

I did think there would be some drops, also only 1 properties entered my search criteria and that was not a new one it used to be priced about my asking criteria and never should have been

No big surprise there. The optomistics (i.e. every seller) see the stamp duty changes as a big price reduction that will give them the pick up they need. Will probably be June before market works itself out of this stall.

D1stant

Post today from another site
______________________________________________

I was talking to an auctioneer in Co Limerick yesterday and was saying about sale prices versus advertised prices and how difficult it was for purchasers to get a clear picture of what was going on. He said to me that of the last 15 or so properties he had agreed sales on, 13 had been agreed at approx than half the advertised price! He also said that he had another 20 or more other properties on his books that he knew the sellers would take half the advertised price.

I asked him why the prices advertised were so high then, as it put people off looking. He said that some sellers didn't want to put a lower price because of whet the neighbours would think, but mostly because if the asking price was lower, people would put in even lower offers. He said that he was selling properties at mid 1990's levels!

I have just offered on a property that was advertised in 2007 at €175,000 and is currently advertised at €90,000. It's empty and so will only get damp and look worse over time. We haven't agreed the price just yet, but it's looking like we might agree at about €35,000 - €40,000. The lower price would be an 80% drop in prices. I think that is the true decrease in property prices, not the 38% based on asking prices.

dory

D1stant wrote: »

Post today from another site
______________________________________________

I was talking to an auctioneer in Co Limerick yesterday and was saying about sale prices versus advertised prices and how difficult it was for purchasers to get a clear picture of what was going on. He said to me that of the last 15 or so properties he had agreed sales on, 13 had been agreed at approx than half the advertised price! He also said that he had another 20 or more other properties on his books that he knew the sellers would take half the advertised price.

I asked him why the prices advertised were so high then, as it put people off looking. He said that some sellers didn't want to put a lower price because of whet the neighbours would think, but mostly because if the asking price was lower, people would put in even lower offers. He said that he was selling properties at mid 1990's levels!

I have just offered on a property that was advertised in 2007 at €175,000 and is currently advertised at €90,000. It's empty and so will only get damp and look worse over time. We haven't agreed the price just yet, but it's looking like we might agree at about €35,000 - €40,000. The lower price would be an 80% drop in prices. I think that is the true decrease in property prices, not the 38% based on asking prices.

Whoa mama! :eek: I might just be able to own my own plot of land some day.

Firetrap

We really do need information about how much houses are actually selling for rather than anecdotes. Of course Ireland is different...

royaler83

Firetrap wrote: »

We really do need information about how much houses are actually selling for rather than anecdotes. Of course Ireland is different...

I thought there was suppsoed to be a list of selling prices out at start of the year?!


Or is it still being held up by the government?

D1stant

royaler83 wrote: »

I thought there was suppsoed to be a list of selling prices out at start of the year?!


Or is it still being held up by the government?

The permanent tsb/ESRI house price index is based on the agreed sale price and is calculated using data from mortgage drawdowns.

This is the 38% drop reffered to since peak

brian__foley

D1stant wrote: »

Post today from another site
______________________________________________

I was talking to an auctioneer in Co Limerick yesterday and was saying about sale prices versus advertised prices and how difficult it was for purchasers to get a clear picture of what was going on. He said to me that of the last 15 or so properties he had agreed sales on, 13 had been agreed at approx than half the advertised price! He also said that he had another 20 or more other properties on his books that he knew the sellers would take half the advertised price.

I asked him why the prices advertised were so high then, as it put people off looking. He said that some sellers didn't want to put a lower price because of whet the neighbours would think, but mostly because if the asking price was lower, people would put in even lower offers. He said that he was selling properties at mid 1990's levels!

I have just offered on a property that was advertised in 2007 at €175,000 and is currently advertised at €90,000. It's empty and so will only get damp and look worse over time. We haven't agreed the price just yet, but it's looking like we might agree at about €35,000 - €40,000. The lower price would be an 80% drop in prices. I think that is the true decrease in property prices, not the 38% based on asking prices.

Less than half the current asking would be nice, but (unless people with more experience can contradict me) this isn't really the obvious norm in Dublin. There aren't (as I can see it) lots of properties out there asking €300,000 going for €120,000-€140,000. From what I see the profile tends to be that person puts house on market at €395,000, person gets a few low-ball offers related to €395,000 but accepts none, and then six months later, person reduces asking to €340,000 and the process starts again with low-ball offers but now related to €340,00 are made and so on. This is only what I've seen on about maybe a half dozen properties of a similar type in Dublin in the last few months.

Any general stat that current values (being the average of that which people are paying) are 80% of market peak is, I think, quite a far way off.

I'm sure there are people out there desperate for money and with mortgage free inherited houses to get rid of...I just need to find one (with the right house!). No joy as of yet.

brian__foley

JoeyJJ wrote: »

I have a search in daft which is monitored by my propertybee firefox extension, the search is mostly 3+ beds in areas of SCD withinn a reasonable price bracket. I thought checking after xmas there would have been a few decreases however not one lowered since 22 Dec or so. In fairness there are a few in the search that reduced pre xmas and are a few properties with 2-4 drops.

I did think there would be some drops, also only 1 properties entered my search criteria and that was not a new one it used to be priced about my asking criteria and never should have been

Snap. Nearly.

jimmmy

D1stant wrote: »

Post today from another site
______________________________________________

I have just offered on a property that was advertised in 2007 at €175,000 and is currently advertised at €90,000. It's empty and so will only get damp and look worse over time. We haven't agreed the price just yet, but it's looking like we might agree at about €35,000 - €40,000. The lower price would be an 80% drop in prices.

I do not want to be nosey - but is the property an apartment or house , is it city or rural location, is it new-ish or very old ? An 80% drop in price is something else.

Firetrap

royaler83 wrote: »

I thought there was suppsoed to be a list of selling prices out at start of the year?!


Or is it still being held up by the government?

Last I'd heard of it, it had been pushed onto the back burner. I'd be happy to be corrected on this if I'm wrong - I certainly believe we do need concrete information.