Property Prices. Just say when...

D1stant

I know this is a recurring theme, but I have been staring at the property situation for 18 months now and am stumped

Myhome issued their Q4 report today

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/advice/whats-new/myhome-ie-property-barometer-q4-2010-2665

Prices are still falling at a pretty good clip, on average 13% last year, but the rate varies a lot by county

I am looking to buy something like a 50-100 year old 4 bed detatched in Limerick city/suburbs. I see various economists saying things will drop a little more but its probably a good time to buy now. Others are far more pessimistic, saying there will be another 50% reduction to come at least. Both sides are backed up with academic looking data, graphs etc

So its kind of like watching Primetime. Two opposing views, both sounding reasonable, and me none the wiser

What do people think is going to happen in property against the backdrop of our busted little island?

Supercell

D1stant wrote: »

I know this is a recurring theme, but I have been staring at the property situation for 18 months now and am stumped

Myhome issued their Q4 report today

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/advice/whats-new/myhome-ie-property-barometer-q4-2010-2665

Prices are still falling at a pretty good clip, on average 13% last year, but the rate varies a lot by county

I am looking to buy something like a 50-100 year old 4 bed detatched in Limerick city/suburbs. I see various economists saying things will drop a little more but its probably a good time to buy now. Others are far more pessimistic, saying there will be another 50% reduction to come at least. Both sides are backed up with academic looking data, graphs etc

So its kind of like watching Primetime. Two opposing views, both sounding reasonable, and me none the wiser

What do people think is going to happen in property against the backdrop of our busted little island?

I'm not going to speculate on prices but the following seem to be certain so .....

Next 4 years under the IMF :-

1) +++ Taxes
2) ++ Interest rates (in the EU and added huge premium for our zombie banks)
3) + Emigration

=....

mikemac

Castletroy is a nice area though I can't say if they have homes to meet your criteria.

At best, you can rent rooms to students, will help with the mortgage

Trhiggy83

I have a strong view on this and i reckon prices are going to keep falling.
They have to keep falling as people cannot afford to buy. If you listen to auctioneers they will tell you it has reached rock bottom but i wudnt listen to them. Also other sources will say it has reached rock bottom becuse they want people to start buying again. The only way im gonna buy is if there is a house for sale that i would be mad to turn down.

The irish have a fascination with putting themselves into debt for 40 years to own their home. My advice is keep your money in your pocket and dont be in any hurry to buy. Market conditions work on supply and demand as you know. Now as far as im aware supply is so plentiful we wont need to build houses for the next 5- 10 years as no one is buying the ones that have been just built.

D1stant

I tend to agree that things are far from the bottom, and that when coming budgets kick in and interest rates rise the market will start to reflect a new reality. Im just puzzled as to why prices are still so high.... is it just mass-deluded-hope? This dawn is taking a long time to rise....

BTW I wont be renting rooms to students or anyone else, but my persoanl situation is not that important - I just added it for context. I'm more interested in the general trend and the conflicting realities being presented by "experts"

fliball123

I would be wary of buying having said that it will depend on the individual

There are + and - to each property

on the - side

More taxes
More Emigration = less demand = more supply

already over supply

More job losses

on the + side
Interest rates will increase big style in the next 2 years so a mortgage for say 100 k now at say 4% will be cheaper than a 75 k morgage at 6/7%

Some areas accross the country have stopped going down from what I can see and then again some areas are dropping like bombs.



I would say if you are buying a HOME and not an investment and have a fair lump sum > 50% of the total price and you have a place your happy to stay in for the next 20+ years go for it...


Good luck

gurramok

D1stant wrote: »

Im just puzzled as to why prices are still so high.... is it just mass-deluded-hope? This dawn is taking a long time to rise....

I'm more interested in the general trend and the conflicting realities being presented by "experts"

There is a huge moratorium on mass possessions via the mortgage default issue(70,000 to 100,000 figures been presented on who you believe) and this is holding prices back a bit.

Also, never trust an expert from the govt or those paid by a bank/auctioneers.

fliball123 wrote: »

I would be wary of buying having said that it will depend on the individual

I would say if you are buying a HOME and not an investment and have a fair lump sum > 50% of the total price and you have a place your happy to stay in for the next 20+ years go for it...

I might be in that category. As an uber-bear(:D), I probably will buy this year if the conditions are right personally as well as pricewise.

seamus

Daft issued their Q4 2010 report today:
http://www.daft.ie/report/Daft-House-Price-Report-Q4-2010.pdf

EricPraline

D1stant wrote: »

I see various economists saying things will drop a little more but its probably a good time to buy now. Others are far more pessimistic, saying there will be another 50% reduction to come at least. Both sides are backed up with academic looking data, graphs etc

So its kind of like watching Primetime. Two opposing views, both sounding reasonable, and me none the wiser

I'd very wary whenever you see the terms 'economist', 'expert' and 'research' being used in the media. It's worth looking at where these views are coming from.

For example, today in the Irish Examiner there's an article where "experts said changes to stamp duty announced in the budget will boost the market this year with three and four-bedroom homes". And who are these "experts"? A director and a mouthpiece respectively from two of the largest estate agencies in the country. Their business depends entirely on convincing you that's it's a good time to a buy a house.

who_ru

we all know the media is full of spin and 'experts' that wouldn't know their arse from their elbow.

Higher Taxes = Less disposable income
Reduced Tax credits/welfare benefits = less disposable income
Increases in Public Sector Services Charges (health, ESB/Gas, Education, waste collection, rates, water charges) = less disposable income.
Higher Interest Rates = less disposable income
Job Losses = less disposable income

all this in a context of all but one irish bank(TSB) - either partially or fully nationalised, by a broke and in the medium term defaulting Irish State.

we know exactly where house prices are headed this year and next year. "Experts" & Govt spokespersons who tell you otherwise are the same ones who said we are in for a soft landing on property prices and the IMF are not coming.

Zamboni

fliball123 wrote: »

I would be wary of buying having said that it will depend on the individual

There are + and - to each property

Interest rates will increase big style in the next 2 years so a mortgage for say 100 k now at say 4% will be cheaper than a 75 k morgage at 6/7%

Bear in mind future interest hikes can be offset by a combo of saving now and further price drops.
So in your example, 2 years savings + interest earned + assumed continued price drop could wipe out the negative effects of mortgage interest rise.
If done intelligently of course!

Bill2673

I don't know whats going to happen, but I do know that if you transport yourself to boards in two years time there will people coming out of the woodwork to say it was obvious what would happen....that any fool could have seen that it was too dear/ too cheap back in Janaury 2011.

waffleman

All this average asking price boolocks gets me annoyed.

When are they gona start publishing selling prices?

Bill2673

They do already, Irish Permanent TSB Index (which says avg house price was €191k in Q4, versus €220k on Daft Index, versus €270k on Myhome index......don't ask me why...).

D1stant

Bill2673 wrote: »

They do already, Irish Permanent TSB Index (which says avg house price was €191k in Q4, versus €220k on Daft Index, versus €270k on Myhome index......don't ask me why...).

Well exactly. Morgan Kelly reckons that foreclosures are a pending tidal wave costing more than the bank bailouts. Ronan Lyons (of Daft) reckons its a mere 1Bn problem. Im more inclined to go with Kelly for several reasons. TSB as a defunct mortrage broker has to be a more accurate picture than the vested interests of Myhome and Daft

And if you want someone who out-Morgans Morgan - see here :-(

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5917

EricPraline

Bill2673 wrote: »

They do already, Irish Permanent TSB Index (which says avg house price was €191k in Q4, versus €220k on Daft Index, versus €270k on Myhome index......don't ask me why...).

The numbers disagree because none of them are property price registers.

The PTSB index covers 5% of the Irish mortgage market and obviously excludes cash sales. They used to publish it monthly, but they didn't have enough data to do that and now publish quarterly. Given how few mortgages are now being taken out in the Irish market, the numbers on which their index is based must be very small indeed.

The Daft and Myhome indexes are based on asking prices only, not sale prices.

So we don't have anything close to a proper price register. The government promised one in March 2010, but there seems to have been little movement on it.

D1stant wrote: »

TSB as a defunct mortrage broker has to be a more accurate picture than the vested interests of Myhome and Daft

Actually the Daft index seems to be calculated in a pretty transparent way. But it is only asking prices and they don't have as good coverage in parts of Dublin compared to Myhome. But it's the best we have.

antiskeptic

D1stant wrote: »

I know this is a recurring theme, but I have been staring at the property situation for 18 months now and am stumped

Myhome issued their Q4 report today

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/advice/whats-new/myhome-ie-property-barometer-q4-2010-2665

Prices are still falling at a pretty good clip, on average 13% last year, but the rate varies a lot by county

I am looking to buy something like a 50-100 year old 4 bed detatched in Limerick city/suburbs. I see various economists saying things will drop a little more but its probably a good time to buy now. Others are far more pessimistic, saying there will be another 50% reduction to come at least. Both sides are backed up with academic looking data, graphs etc

So its kind of like watching Primetime. Two opposing views, both sounding reasonable, and me none the wiser

What do people think is going to happen in property against the backdrop of our busted little island?

Prices are said to be at 2002 levels now. I bought in 1999 for £115k. Two years before that, a neighbour bought an identical house for £58k. Two years before that, the woman across the road bought an identical house for £28k. The price she paid reflected normal, pre-boom house pricing.

We might not end back there (1995 + 15 years normal houseprice inflation) but I'd say we've quite a ways to go yet.

brian__foley

EricPraline wrote: »

I'd very wary whenever you see the terms 'economist', 'expert' and 'research' being used in the media. It's worth looking at where these views are coming from.

For example, today in the Irish Examiner there's an article where "experts said changes to stamp duty announced in the budget will boost the market this year with three and four-bedroom homes". And who are these "experts"? A director and a mouthpiece respectively from two of the largest estate agencies in the country. Their business depends entirely on convincing you that's it's a good time to a buy a house.

From recent personal experience I've not found a wealth of vendors willing to take "anything".

I've made several offers on not-hugely-expensive properties (in or about 400k asking), some of which were very low and some of which were not.

In nearly all cases the response has been "the vendors want to hang on for something close to the asking", which is fine, but lots of these prices are 6-7 months old and people still think things have a value of X, even though no-one is meeting it.

Most of these have not been new-builds, and primarily executor sales. I suppose in such cases, the beneficiaries may well think "well, I don't need the money, so lets see what happens". In particular, I've received the view back that "well, we know you're saving on stamp duty, so you can pay more".

As far as I can see, the "half price" deals tend to be in new builds and apartments and especially estates outside the Pale, but to get a pretty good family-home-for-life house in the City (Dublin 6, 7 is all I know) isn't exactly a buyers paradise (yet), in my experience over the last 4-5 months.

Bill2673

brian__foley wrote: »

From recent personal experience I've not found a wealth of buyers willing to take "anything".

I presume you mean sellers there, not buyers.......Thats interesting. what sort of discount to asking price were you bidding.

brian__foley

Bill2673 wrote: »

I presume you mean sellers there, not buyers.......Thats interesting. what sort of discount to asking price were you bidding.

Whoops...edited.

It would have been a range, but the profile of house I've been looking it would be reasonably covered by the following: In or about €400,000, always in need of substantial works, ranging from purely internal to internal and roof replacements etc - i.e. classic executor "old Dublin" houses in the Dublin 7 area mainly. The costs of renovation for most of them range between €50,000 to €110,000.

I've worked on the assumption that I don't think that it should cost (taking into account renovation) €450-470k) to live in even a very nice large house in what are (and I have to accept by wife's recurrent point here) not "great" areas.

Generally (and this is quite general) I've taken the view of looking at the asking, looking at cost of renovation, and making an offer reduced from the asking on a percentage of the renovation costs - i.e. on a €395,000 needing €70K, I would have been up to €360,000. On another property which was in or about €400,000 on the asking, I think I was up to €355,000 on the basis of a €110,000 renovation cost (i.e. was in tenements) etc.

Maybe I'm way off in what I expect, but it appears that one can purchase in Dublin 6 etc for in or about €430,000 for a reasonably turn-key and nice property, but the Dublin 7 values on this market range (i.e. in or about €400k) don't seem to be too flexible.

On the other hand, I've watched my own little cottage plummet and seeing asking prices slashed again and again on comparators.

And again, these are by and large all executor sales (which is pretty much the profile as I understand it in Dublin 7). They, in my experience, will only be either extreme - either "we want money, we want anything...just sell it" or "well, we don't need money, so unless we get a lot, leave it alone".

hmmm

Are we back at long run averages of perhaps 15-18 times rent? I think we're getting closer but are still some way off. Banks are also issuing very few mortgages, so I'm not optimistic about short term house prices.

EricPraline

brian__foley wrote: »

From recent personal experience I've not found a wealth of vendors willing to take "anything".

I've made several offers on not-hugely-expensive properties (in or about 400k asking), some of which were very low and some of which were not.

In nearly all cases the response has been "the vendors want to hang on for something close to the asking", which is fine, but lots of these prices are 6-7 months old and people still think things have a value of X, even though no-one is meeting it.

Unfortunately the market seems have largely reached a stalemate between vendors unwilling/unable to budge and buyers who are being increasingly limited by lending restrictions and tax hikes. In some cases vendors will get close to their asking price if they can find a suitable buyer, while in the rest of cases vendors will continue to slowly follow the market down as they have done since 2007.

who_ru

the market is not being allowed to reach it's natural level for many reasons. neither banks nor vendors are anxious to crystallize their loses. NAMA has mothballed many properties around the major urban areas as well as rural areas and does not want to release them to the market for fear of driving down prices further.

Many Vendors are not under pressure to sell because:

1 - I/O Mortgages
2 - Little or no repossessions despite perhaps 100,000+ mortgages in arrears.


Potential buyers are not buying because:

1 - Lack of Credit
2 - Personal indebtedness at very high levels
3 - All but one irish bank not fully or substantially nationalised
4 - Fear of higher interest rates/ poor job security
5 - Likehood of rents continuing to fall

Mr. Loverman

Now is the time to buy.

We have hit the bottom in all areas: property prices, job losses, emigration, tax increases and wage cuts.

The news this week about our exports being the best ever show we have finally turned the corner. Some people here are saying this news means nothing, but I don't accept that.

You can now buy decent family homes for what we would all agree is good value:

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=569798 (very close to the Magna business park)

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=562760 (one of the most sought after addresses in Finglas)

I know plenty of people who bought recently and are delighted with their purchases. A few are on rent-2-buy schemes which obviously are great value. For example a friend of mine who was relaxing and who lived with his mother was recently in a fight, which frightened his mother, so she told him to move out of his neighbourhood or go live with his auntie and uncle. He didn't want to do the latter (who would) so he got a cab to a house for sale in a "ghost estate". He pulled up to the house about 7 or 8 and yelled to the cabbie yo homie smell you later. He looked at his kingdom he was finally there to sit on his throne as the prince of bel air.

ardmacha

Prices are said to be at 2002 levels now. I bought in 1999 for £115k. Two years before that, a neighbour bought an identical house for £58k. Two years before that, the woman across the road bought an identical house for £28k. The price she paid reflected normal, pre-boom house pricing.

We might not end back there (1995 + 15 years normal houseprice inflation) but I'd say we've quite a ways to go yet.

I am not sure that 1995 is relevant to the discussion. There was a high level of real growth in the Irish economy in the 1995-2000 period which increased house prices for good reason. 2002 prices seem reasonable, but things always overshoot, but if prices in decent locations were moving into pre 2000 territory than I'd say they would not decline further.

EricPraline

ardmacha wrote: »

I am not sure that 1995 is relevant to the discussion. There was a high level of real growth in the Irish economy in the 1995-2000 period which increased house prices for good reason. 2002 prices seem reasonable, but things always overshoot, but if prices in decent locations were moving into pre 2000 territory than I'd say they would not decline further.

If real growth ended in 2000 and as you say property bubbles overshoot on the way down, then surely pre-2000 is not at all unreasonable, and 2002 levels still represent poor value?

After all we're not talking about the Ireland of the 1990s that had positive future prospects. Instead we're discussing a heavily-indebted country that has required IMF intervention and whose banking sector will face a complete overhaul in the near future.

The reality is that if lending contracts significantly due to ECB pressure on Irish banks to stabilise their loan-to-deposit ratios, and foreign lenders continue to leave/avoid the Irish market, then residential property prices can only go in one direction.

amacachi

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

We have hit the bottom in all areas: property prices,

What about when repossessions really start for all those way behind on their payments? Or when the Germans get their interest rate increase?

job losses,

Latest figures don't say so.

emigration,

LOL.

tax increases

Seriously? You haven't noticed the gap that still exists between state spending and income and the fact that the NTMA is talking about borrowing on the bond markets again at the end of the year?

and wage cuts.

I strongly doubt that but it could go either way.

The news this week about our exports being the best ever show we have finally turned the corner. Some people here are saying this news means nothing, but I don't accept that.

"Our" exports have always been strong, they'll have to increase some amount to emply the few hundred thousand unemployed and low-skilled people on the dole at the moment. With the decline in population on the way the only thing that could "save" the housing market is steam-rolling through complete and almost-complete developments.

dory

Amachaci I think your sarcasm detector is on the blink....

amacachi

dory wrote: »

Amachaci I think your sarcasm detector is on the blink....

Goddamnit.

dory

amacachi wrote: »

Goddamnit.

I think the hint was in the Fresh Prince of Bel-Air quote.

johndaman66

dory wrote: »

I think the hint was in the Fresh Prince of Bel-Air quote.

Them two properties with just silly asking prices that Mr. Loverman provides links to are dead giveaways too:)