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Very cold, Snow
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Im pinning my hopes to mid-month and after, the 18z operational shows this with a building scandi high, with Easterlies forming, but there are a few runs which have easterlies (not all Scandi highs) on the ensembles.
http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-312.png?12
And have ya seen the latest AO and NAO forecasts? Building Blocks of a real stunner cold spell are being made, now to get them in the right place!:D
:cool: It is nice to see the models hinting real Easterly, Obviously this is as FI as FI gets. But the last third of the month does have pontentiol. Watch this space.0 -
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And have ya seen the latest AO and NAO forecasts? Building Blocks of a real stunner cold spell are being made, now to get them in the right place!:D
:cool: It is nice to see the models hinting real Easterly, Obviously this is as FI as FI gets. But the last third of the month does have pontentiol. Watch this space.
Indeed, very nice, though there are a few that warm up, but its in the majority to drop, and if it does, were in business, but we cannot get two far ahead of ourselves, it could all be a damp squid in the end.
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Okay after a short break, hope everyone had a good New years I've looked at the models closely for the last few days and come to a conclusion (sort of) -
Short term -
Cold weather this week/weekend with some chance of snow, I don't think met eireann's 10cm of snow possible in many areas will come off, at least not on lower ground. I am happy to be proven wrong though.
Medium term -
Next week is looking milder than of late, probably zonal but not like pre 2008/09 winters, more of a temporary thing I would think, at the moment the signs are that we will have low pressure moving west to east over the Atlantic, BUT these look like stopping somewhere over Ireland/The UK and will not steam roll all the way up to norway as is normal in mild zonality.
The GFS pressure ensembles for Oslo show this with pressure forecast to rise considerably, opposite of zonality!
Here's the link = http://www.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20110104/18/prmslOslo.png
The mean is up to 1020MB at the end of the run indicating a scandi high-
Operational and control runs trending much higher again, with pressure up to 1045MB!! This is a good sign and really I don't think the mild pattern will last too long, and have a feeling that it will be replaced by a bitter easterly straight from Siberia for much of the second half of january-
Now here is the ensembles for reyjavic -
http://www.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20110104/18/prmslReyjavic.png
This is not showing significant support for either low or high pressure, indicating that the polar vortex will not setup nearby (as would happen in a zonal pattern).
Another major factor is the AO/NAO and so the AO is forecast to go into deep negative territory, very good for keeping northern blocking -
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
NAO is meant to go into a neutral phase or maybe just positive before dropping negative again -
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html
Another positive, anti zonality, is the N. Hemisphere 500hpa ECM +240 charts are showing a split p.vortex with the main chunk over Canada, importantly not over Greenland -
And look at the size of that OMEGA block!! Unfortunately its on the wrong side of the pole.
Long Term -
After next week is very uncertain at present and could end up being pivotal in terms of what weather we have for the rest of the winter, IF a zonal pattern is in full flow, (unlikely) it could be curtains for cold until mid feb or til the end of winter, based on the last 2 or 3 years and low solar activity, dead gulf stream, northern blocking and a southerly tracking jet I find this very unlikely to happen. Now on the other hand if we end up starring down the barrel of another severe cold spell, I would expect it to be locked in until mid feb, with reloads very possible. Now I think this more likely to happen than the zonal option but that is just my opinion. Of coarse there are many other potential scenarios that could happen and the most likely is probably that we end up with a cold pattern, not extreme cold but cold enough for snow at times too.
Tonights 18z GFS run shows a big scandi high and easterly developing in very late FI -
http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110104/18/360/h850t850eu.png
I think this will become a feature on future runs and so is one to watch...
What I can also see as a possibility is if the stratospheric warming gets it's act together and propagates downwards, and blocking sets up in a favourable position we could see more amazing Synoptics with high pressure extending from Siberia to Canada , the holy Grail of cold patterns, yet to be seen this winter but would probably need to happen if we want to equal/surpass 1963 in terms of length and severity of cold.
Okay ramp over -
Dan 0 -
Okay after a short break, hope everyone had a good New years I've looked at the models closely for the last few days and come to a conclusion (sort of) -
Short term -
Cold weather this week/weekend with some chance of snow, I don't think met eireann's 10cm of snow possible in many areas will come off, at least not on lower ground. I am happy to be proven wrong though.
Medium term -
Next week is looking milder than of late, probably zonal but not like pre 2008/09 winters, more of a temporary thing I would think, at the moment the signs are that we will have low pressure moving west to east over the Atlantic, BUT these look like stopping somewhere over Ireland/The UK and will not steam roll all the way up to norway as is normal in mild zonality.
The GFS pressure ensembles for Oslo show this with pressure forecast to rise considerably, opposite of zonality!
Here's the link = http://www.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20110104/18/prmslOslo.png
The mean is up to 1020MB at the end of the run indicating a scandi high-
Operational and control runs trending much higher again, with pressure up to 1045MB!! This is a good sign and really I don't think the mild pattern will last too long, and have a feeling that it will be replaced by a bitter easterly straight from Siberia for much of the second half of january-
Now here is the ensembles for reyjavic -
http://www.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20110104/18/prmslReyjavic.png
This is not showing significant support for either low or high pressure, indicating that the polar vortex will not setup nearby (as would happen in a zonal pattern).
Another major factor is the AO/NAO and so the AO is forecast to go into deep negative territory, very good for keeping northern blocking -
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
NAO is meant to go into a neutral phase or maybe just positive before dropping negative again -
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html
Another positive, anti zonality, is the N. Hemisphere 500hpa ECM +240 charts are showing a split p.vortex with the main chunk over Canada, importantly not over Greenland -
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html
And look at the size of that OMEGA block!! Unfortunately its on the wrong side of the pole.
Long Term -
After next week is very uncertain at present and could end up being pivotal in terms of what weather we have for the rest of the winter, IF a zonal pattern is in full flow, (unlikely) it could be curtains for cold until mid feb or til the end of winter, based on the last 2 or 3 years and low solar activity, dead gulf stream, northern blocking and a southerly tracking jet I find this very unlikely to happen. Now on the other hand if we end up starring down the barrel of another severe cold spell, I would expect it to be locked in until mid feb, with reloads very possible. Now I think this more likely to happen than the zonal option but that is just my opinion. Of coarse there are many other potential scenarios that could happen and the most likely is probably that we end up with a cold pattern, not extreme cold but cold enough for snow at times too.
Tonights 18z GFS run shows a big scandi high and easterly developing in very late FI -
http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110104/18/360/h850t850eu.png
I think this will become a feature on future runs and so is one to watch...
What I can also see as a possibility is if the stratospheric warming gets it's act together and propagates downwards, and blocking sets up in a favourable position we could see more amazing Synoptics with high pressure extending from Siberia to Canada , the holy Grail of cold patterns, yet to be seen this winter but would probably need to happen if we want to equal/surpass 1963 in terms of length and severity of cold.
Okay ramp over -
Dan
Fantastic post! 0 -
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More snow predicted for the North West
Forecasters says there's more snow coming for the North West - with as much as ten centimetres expected to fall on higher ground.
Met Éireann says temperatures will drop to below zero tomorrow night - however the cold snap is not expected to be as severe as what we've experienced in recent weeks.
Peter O'Donnell of Irish Weather Online says there are two weather systems we need to be aware of: - One of which is in the North West
http://oceanfm.ie/article/More-snow-predicted-for-the-North-West/
Amazing how Met eireann are not the only source, good to see competition out there in the form of IWO. 0 -
The presenter said the Uk weather office said in november that it would be mild winter.
They didnt though did they?
See here
"Since late November we've seen a prolonged spell of severe wintry weather"
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/how/case-studies/big-freeze
MET uks outlook for novmeber and decemeber was pretty spot on I thought.0 -
More snow predicted for the North West
Forecasters says there's more snow coming for the North West - with as much as ten centimetres expected to fall on higher ground.
Met Éireann says temperatures will drop to below zero tomorrow night - however the cold snap is not expected to be as severe as what we've experienced in recent weeks.
Peter O'Donnell of Irish Weather Online says there are two weather systems we need to be aware of: - One of which is in the North West
http://oceanfm.ie/article/More-snow-predicted-for-the-North-West/
Amazing how Met eireann are not the only source, good to see competition out there in the form of IWO.
M.T. even?0 -
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thetonynator wrote: »I've given up hope of anything from this cold spell, so the question is, when will the next one be? And blizzard post above is music to my ears . . .:D
Ok but as I said it's a potential trend to watch at the moment and dosent have much support at present, neither does raging zonality, Most likely something in-between with high pressure nearby (probably mid-atlantic) hopefully positioned favourably though.
I know that's a bit vague but we are talking 14 days away, the models are not consistent and so trends is all you can go on at that range.
Dan
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