Very cold, Snow

patneve2

maquiladora wrote: »

Look at the AO forecast for after mid-month. Could be very interesting later in Jan / early Feb?

I like. I like very much:) Even though the Arctic Oscillation doesn't have a total say in our cold spells, it is interesting to see that the previous 'bigger dips' in the index have coincided with our two big cold spells. The polar vortex is still highly unstable, it just remains to be seen where its load will fall.

JJJJNR

Just started snowing in Rathdrum, very light but still its snowing.

Kippure

JJJJNR wrote: »

Just started snowing in Rathdrum, very light but still its snowing.

Its been snowing lightly all day around wicklow.The average tempeture has been between 0c and minus 1. Theres a dusty accross the tops of some of the hills. Especailly towards killbride.

MUSEIST

mike65 wrote: »

:mad: NOT HAPPENING :mad:

:DOh, its happening, oh yes:D:D

jprboy

Deleted User wrote: »

Dan Corbett did that bbc weather for the week ahead and he doesn't agree and certainly wouldn't be using the word severe to describe whats coming this week.
The artic door he said was only being slightly opened.

But it will open just enough for some parts of the country.

Corkonians: Where did ye get that snow, boiy?

Others: Not sure, think it fell off the back of a lorry :pac:

darkman2

The 12pm GFS run is a good upgrade if you want snow with the cold weather lasting for the forseeable future. Icy and very cold at night. The UKMO also is very cold aswell with increasingly showers of snow or longer periods of sleet and snow. The outlook is turning colder the closer to midweek we get.

BEASTERLY

Just to cheer us all up here is some quotes from Mid November 2010 in the thread dealing with the imminent cold:

Late November is a bit too early for temperatures to be close to freezing by day. it'll be more like 3 - 8 degrees.

will propably be a non event for most/all of us, nothing more than a few frosts and the odd rain/sleet shower. Still too early in the season for something decent i think.

They are interesting but...a word of caution for anyone heading out to build sleighs this morning. There is a strong possibility that the cold spell may be broken by the Friday of next week as the atlantic reestablishes more average temps and brings rain over the country from the SW

Very little snowy potential for us until about 180 hours but then the breakdown comes a couple of days later.

most people will not see the white stuff, except those living a few hundred metres asl.

This whole hysteria building up about snow next week (last week of November!) is bound to lead to disappointment.

We all know how that one turned out, looking back at the charts forecasted upper air temps this time are actually colder than they were in late november, worth bearing in mind. Although with the long sea track DPs will be alot higher but i cant see why area more than 10k inland would see mostly rain or sleet.

Ah the upper airs aren't colder than late november are they? Not colder than the uppers we got at the start of the nov/early dec spell ?
Remember once you have near zero cold surface air in place and near zero surface air advecting in from your wind direction source,thats when you can allow the uppers to be warmer.
I'm pretty sure it was snowing all day here with uppers warmer than -5c towards the latter end of the early december spell.
Thats because you had those two factors happening.The latter being freezing surface air advection seeping in from Britain.

Usually you do not have the freezing surface air in a northwesterly or a westerly[of northerly origin] as it's a marine layer exclusively at the surface level as opposed to having had land modification in the case of an easterly or north easterly and in late november/early december,it was an icy modification!
Hence thats why you need a minimum -8 850 air and preferably -10 air from the west or north west to diminish the affect of the sst's and that marine layer advection.

Meh! I'm taking a simple view of the next week.Everything is flowing from the north.
The only problem is it's a very gradual and slow process meaning it's getting hellish modification on that sea track.
But step by step,this could get there properly eventually.

The models can't handle it thats for sure.
New and different solutions from all of them this evening again.
Lots of forecast intuition needed rather than heres the latest chart lads for 4 days time and it says snow...

bullylover

Talking about signs from the animals,
Alot of our horses have being an edge since yesterday, samething happened jst before the first snow (november).
Something must be coming, its not normal for them to act like they are...

Musicman2000

Looking at the countryfile forecast on BBC 1, he had a high over the UK and Ireland next weekend, not a mention of snow apart from the north of Scotland

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Although with the long sea track DPs will be alot higher but i cant see why area more than 10k inland would see mostly rain or sleet.

Well couple of charts from the 12Z GFS....

111 hours



159 hours...




Nothing high about those. Of course could/will change a lot either way by then.

bullylover

bullylover wrote: »

Talking about signs from the animals,
Alot of our horses have being an edge since yesterday, samething happened jst before the first snow (november).
Something must be coming, its not normal for them to act like they are...

did you hear about all the Birds falling from sky in arkansas? also hundreds of thousands of dead fish washing up. Same In South AMerica apparently. All over the past few days. Looks like scenes from the Birds, the Hitchcock classic.
Saying maybe lighning or hail ..

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/01/02/dead-birds-fall-ark-sky/

If I see birds dropping from sky, I'l pass out.

bullylover

We also have 2 buzzards and they have come in close to the yard and their staying around the yard, never seen them do this before... very strange indeed.
I wud defo pass out if they fall from the sky:S

ltdslipdiff

Jake1 wrote: »

did you hear about all the Birds falling from sky in arkansas? also hundreds of thousands of dead fish washing up. Same In South AMerica apparently. All over the past few days. Looks like scenes from the Birds, the Hitchcock classic.
Saying maybe lighning or hail ..

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/01/02/dead-birds-fall-ark-sky/

If I see birds dropping from sky, I'l pass out.

Looks like classic UFO activity to me !!!:)

fr wishy washy

Maybe tomorrow will be more telling. Be interesting to see if Blessington gets a dusting tonight

rc28

bullylover wrote: »

We also have 2 buzzards and they have come in close to the yard and their staying around the yard, never seen them do this before... very strange indeed.
I wud defo pass out if they fall from the sky:S

I was just remarking today how many birds were in our garden and coming so close to the house to get food! We have a few bird feeders in back yard and they were swarming around them too.

Weird all the animals are acting odd - in the wood near us there were so many squirrels scurrying around the place which I never see.

fr wishy washy

It was exactly the same in our garden today it was like they were queing up to get to the food so much so that I refilled the tray and left the security light on to encourage them to feed for as long as they could. Strange

Pangea

rc28 wrote: »

there were so many squirrels scurrying around the place which I never see.

I never knew there was squirrels in Ireland till a few years ago, still never seen one in Ireland though ,Im guessing they are plentiful down south?

darkman2

Plenty of (grey) squirrels in my location. All cute and fuzzy from a distance. Get up close and it's more like a rat with fir.;)

fizzycyst

the american grey squirrels are also responsible for the fact that our own native red squirrel numbers are in serious decline, I've seen plenty of grey squirrels but never a red

Redsunset

God it must be looking bad for any serious cold coming,when we start talking bout squirrels.:D

rc28

rc28 wrote: »

I was just remarking today how many birds were in our garden and coming so close to the house to get food! We have a few bird feeders in back yard and they were swarming around them too.

Weird all the animals are acting odd - in the wood near us there were so many squirrels scurrying around the place which I never see.

they certainly called the earthquake in Chile.

maquiladora

18Z GFS not as cold out to 102 hours....the low to the southwest is a bit more beefy, rain pushing in from the south.



By 120 hours....

ninebeanrows

Close but no cigar.

A situation developing which could prove very interesting, it will go down to a coin flip.

If we won the coin flip and you push this synoptic 100 miles further east, we'd be talking snowpocalypse.

At the moment, we are talking rain.

Lovely synoptic, would be terrible to see it wasted into the Atlantic..

BEASTERLY

Deleted User wrote: »

Ah the upper airs aren't colder than late november are they? Not colder than the uppers we got at the start of the nov/early dec spell ?
Remember once you have near zero cold surface air in place and near zero surface air advecting in from your wind direction source,thats when you can allow the uppers to be warmer.
I'm pretty sure it was snowing all day here with uppers warmer than -5c towards the latter end of the early december spell.
Thats because you had those two factors happening.The latter being freezing surface air advection seeping in from Britain.

Usually you do not have the freezing surface air in a northwesterly or a westerly[of northerly origin] as it's a marine layer exclusively at the surface level as opposed to having had land modification in the case of an easterly or north easterly and in late november/early december,it was an icy modification!
Hence thats why you need a minimum -8 850 air and preferably -10 air from the west or north west to diminish the affect of the sst's and that marine layer advection.

Meh! I'm taking a simple view of the next week.Everything is flowing from the north.
The only problem is it's a very gradual and slow process meaning it's getting hellish modification on that sea track.
But step by step,this could get there properly eventually.

The models can't handle it thats for sure.
New and different solutions from all of them this evening again.
Lots of forecast intuition needed rather than heres the latest chart lads for 4 days time and it says snow...

Looked like it was going to be pretty mediocere going by that chart. But as you say this is a flow that had been over the land along time and we are dealing with a different beast all together.

Why oh why cant we have a Siberian flow, i remember a few of those even in the mildest of winters.

ninebeanrows

And this chart shall be known as 'Potential'

I love how the Atlantic blow in programmed in by all the models is getting pushed back, the Atlantic just doesn't want to kick into what we expect from it in the usual places. I am not saying it won't but it is resisting.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Close but no cigar.

A situation developing which could prove very interesting, it will go down to a coin flip.

If we won the coin flip and you push this synoptic 100 miles further east, we'd be talking snowpocalypse.

At the moment, we are talking rain.

Rain, but then turning to sleet and snow as the colder air follows down?




Situation will change anyway....

lionela

Surely ..
."The Weather will be widespread."..
would be suffice for the forseeable future.

BEASTERLY

Weathercheck wrote: »

And this chart shall be known as 'Potential'

I love how the Atlantic blow in programmed in by all the models is getting pushed back, the Atlantic just doesn't want to kick into what we expect from it in the usual places. I am not saying it won't but it is resisting.

Unfortunately the cold is getting push back quicker than the mild is, but then again the GFS was never optimistic about this spell, but the ECM shows the atlantic kicking in the door much quicker.

goat2

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

At the moment, I am more convinced of the cold than the snow potential for eastern and southern counties, but the models are not really giving us very reliable projections of the details once the cold air gets established mid-week, so I think it's prudent to at least warn people of the potential for a return to snow -- which seems quite likely in Connacht and parts of Ulster by Tuesday night or Wednesday.
So far this outbreak looks just a little less severe than the first two were, but it's severe enough to be concerned about wintry weather returning after what has turned out to be a week-long break from the severe conditions.

it is really cold here right now