UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

AlmightyCushion

SlowBlowin wrote: »

Having a 6:00 am Jamesons....

What were the odds on that? I had the same picks but only won 6 pints off a friend. Wondering what I would have gotten with an accumulator.

callaway92

SlowBlowin wrote: »

I feel for Romero in that decision, I thought he won..

Romero is my favourite fighter, but Costa won 1 comfortably and won 2 by a small margin imo.

3 obviously Yoel’s then

dulux99

What am I missing here with 8/15 on Andrade this morning? Thought she'd be a 1/3 shot atleast

dulux99

Also, finding it hard to consolidate the fact that Khabib is the same price to beat Poirier that Dublin are to be Kerry.

dulux99

dulux99 wrote: »

What am I missing here with 8/15 on Andrade this morning? Thought she'd be a 1/3 shot atleast

Yep was definitely missing something.

Subcomandante Marcos

I can't believe the UFC have doubled back on their "we won't do fost fight in cage interviews with knocked out fighters" rule so fast.

The organisation is absolute scum run by absolute scumbags.

mailburner

dulux99 wrote: »

What am I missing here with 8/15 on Andrade this morning? Thought she'd be a 1/3 shot atleast

I was thinking same but the confidence here put me off a bet but a double with zaleski would have been my bet anyway
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSpD2c4vAXI

dulux99 wrote: »

Also, finding it hard to consolidate the fact that Khabib is the same price to beat Poirier that Dublin are to be Kerry.

The 3/1 on dustin seems an insane price but what do I know
seems to be drifting all the time and sure he'll probably be 7/2 or bigger
come saturday

Whelo79

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

I can't believe the UFC have doubled back on their "we won't do fost fight in cage interviews with knocked out fighters" rule so fast.

The organisation is absolute scum run by absolute scumbags.

Did the UFC make that rule? I thought it was Rogan who made that decision?

Who got interviewed anyway that's got your knickers in a twist?

Mellor

It was Rogan’s request after a bizarre Overeem interview. Ultimately the UFC have the say.

He “broke” his rule when Jones KO’d DC. He later admitted that was a fk up.
He interviewed DC after the Stipe loss. I think he said that was because it was main due to body shots not a KO. But he checked with DC beforehand.

The impression I got was that it was still the status quo going forward. But who knows.

Mr. Manager

The DC one was because he thought he was going to retire too and wanted to give him a chance to have his last say

Mellor

Mr. Manager wrote: »

The DC one was because he thought he was going to retire too and wanted to give him a chance to have his last say

That too. But also because he wasn't actually KTFO, imo.

mailburner

dustin out half a point to 7/2 already

we could be looking at 4/1+ come fight day at this rate
there's no way he should be that big

I think he'll do better than conor did

SlowBlowin

The odds on Dustin are mad, I am defo going to be backing him at this rate, I think the bookies are making a Conner/Nate mistake here. Dont get me wrong I think Khabib is a great fighter, and that overhand right he throws while going in low is a weapon, but Porier is very strong and can keep a pace. If I was taking bets it would be at evens.

d00mk1n

I wouldn’t bet against Khabib, but if you’re willing to take The Diamond at 7/2 or 4/1 may as well be by KO for extra value

He’s not getting a decision in Abu Dhabi

mailburner

d00mk1n wrote: »

I wouldn’t bet against Khabib, but if you’re willing to take The Diamond at 7/2 or 4/1 may as well be by KO for extra value

He’s not getting a decision in Abu Dhabi

3.8/1 to win 5/1 to win by ko, very little in terms of value there for only a little more than a point more

dp on pts at 11/1 is one I like for value but it'll need to be
pretty clearcut you'd imagine

shrapnel222

mailburner wrote: »

3.8/1 to win 5/1 to win by ko, very little in terms of value there for only a little more than a point more

dp on pts at 11/1 is one I like for value but it'll need to be
pretty clearcut you'd imagine

if it gets to points, it's because khabib has been dry humping poirier against the cage for at least 15 minutes. poirier getting a clear cut points victory means khabib decides to stand and bang, and i just can't imagine that happening

mailburner

shrapnel222 wrote: »

if it gets to points, it's because khabib has been dry humping poirier against the cage for at least 10 minutes. poirier getting a clear cut points victory means khabib decides to stand and bang, and i just can't imagine that happening

Agreed

SlowBlowin

I am just thinking of the value here.

MMA skill levels are going up all the time. Most dominant champions with incomplete skill sets get beaten eventually. The persona of a fighter is important, McGregor was a master of demoralising you, opponents feared the loss and their style would change, they would rush in, or retreat against their normal style, and then McGregor would capitalise.

Khabib is the same, a massively talented fighter, with a fearsome reputation. Most recent opponents are so totally focused to avoiding the take down, that their own skills don't show. Khabib has improved his skills taking advantage of this, I think one of his best weapons (apart from his ground game) is faking the take down and throwing the overhand right. The exception to this was Al Iqunita, who seemed to fight his normal and fight, and although well beaten went the distance.

DP is strong, he has knockout power (takes something to KO Justin Gaethje), has pace, and appears focused and not scared. I think its a 50/50 case, I can't call it, hence I see the DP bet as value.

Subcomandante Marcos

SlowBlowin wrote: »

I am just thinking of the value here.

MMA skill levels are going up all the time. Most dominant champions with incomplete skill sets get beaten eventually. The persona of a fighter is important, McGregor was a master of demoralising you, opponents feared the loss and their style would change, they would rush in, or retreat against their normal style, and then McGregor would capitalise.

Khabib is the same, a massively talented fighter, with a fearsome reputation. Most recent opponents are so totally focused to avoiding the take down, that their own skills don't show. Khabib has improved his skills taking advantage of this, I think one of his best weapons (apart from his ground game) is faking the take down and throwing the overhand right. The exception to this was Al Iqunita, who seemed to fight his normal and fight, and although well beaten went the distance.

DP is strong, he has knockout power (takes something to KO Justin Gaethje), has pace, and appears focused and not scared. I think its a 50/50 case, I can't call it, hence I see the DP bet as value.

Look. I see what you're saying and it kind of makes sense. But after while it stops making sense to say Khabib is a one demential fighter and you just have to focus on the takedown defence. Everyone have used that approach and everyone have failed.
His striking is less than his grappling, yes, but nobody will disrespect his striking like they used to after he dropped Conor.

I'm putting €20 on Porier, because I think the odds are ridiculous,. It I still expect Khabib to win.

SlowBlowin

d00mk1n wrote: »

I wouldn’t bet against Khabib, but if you’re willing to take The Diamond at 7/2 or 4/1 may as well be by KO for extra value

He’s not getting a decision in Abu Dhabi

Advice taken, smart arse post written, bet placed.

No doubt when Khabib does - what Khabib does I will regret it but tonight it makes sense so I placed it.

SlowBlowin

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

Look. I see what you're saying and it kind of makes sense. But after while it stops making sense to say Khabib is a one demential fighter and you just have to focus on the takedown defence. Everyone have used that approach and everyone have failed.
His striking is less than his grappling, yes, but nobody will disrespect his striking like they used to after he dropped Conor.

I'm putting €20 on Porier, because I think the odds are ridiculous,. It I still expect Khabib to win.

I am not saying Khabib is one dimensional hence my comment on his overhand right while faking the take down (thats how he dropped Connor), and I think his striking is underrated but its not as slick as DPs.

Champions have weaknesses, look at DC/Stipe, I bet evey fight from now on (if there are any) DC gets hit with repeated liver shots.

I agree with every aspect of your post and you summed it up perfectly, I believe Khabib might well win, but 115 return for 20 bet is worth it.

eagle eye

Gotta agree with the main sentiment in this thread. Dustin is just too well priced. He has the power to end this with one punch, he has a good ground game as well.
Like most I predict a Khabib win but his price should be no lower than 2/5 imo. There is just too much value in DP's price.
The more I think about this fight the closer it gets imo. Poirier is a very dangerous man.

Homelander

Had to put €50 on Diamond with those ko/tko odds. Seems the less likely outcome, but certainly more likely than him winning on points.

eagle eye

I backed Poitier straight ftw at 7/2. My other bets tonight are Taisumov to win in round 1 at 7/2 and Lerone Murphy, who I've seen live twice, to pull the upset and beat Tukhogov, he is 13/5.

Murphy is very smart, very active with his hands and feet. He likes to go to the ground as well. He leaves himself open at times but to this point in his career he has been able to take every shot landed on him. He is unbeaten in his career to date both at amateur and professional level. This is a tough opening UFC fight for him but he just seems to be able to move up levels when it's required.

Mellor

d00mk1n wrote: »

He’s not getting a decision in Abu Dhabi

I don't think the judges will be "local"

shrapnel222 wrote: »

if it gets to points, it's because khabib has been dry humping poirier against the cage for at least 15 minutes. poirier getting a clear cut points victory means khabib decides to stand and bang, and i just can't imagine that happening

There's also an option in the middle.
Khabib humps him for two rounds, gasses in the heat, and can't complete a TD in the 3-5th. Dusty wins

eagle eye wrote: »

Murphy is very smart, very active with his hands and feet. He likes to go to the ground as well. He leaves himself open at times but to this point in his career he has been able to take every shot landed on him. He is unbeaten in his career to date both at amateur and professional level. This is a tough opening UFC fight for him but he just seems to be able to move up levels when it's required.

English guy, making a UFC debut, zero sub wins.

I don't know him at all, but that's the template for me to back a submission loss.

eagle eye

Mellor wrote:

English guy, making a UFC debut, zero sub wins.
I don't know him at all, but that's the template for me to back a submission loss.

His opponent has one submission win in his career, way back in 2010 in a lower level Moscow fight.

weemcd

Threw a fiver on Poirier to win for the craic, hope he does it. He's facing possibly the best fighter in the deepest weight class in the UFC tho, good luck to him.

mailburner

Mellor wrote: »

There's also an option in the middle.
Khabib humps him for two rounds, gasses in the heat, and can't complete a TD in the 3-5th. Dusty wins


.

This is a possibility imo which is why I have had a small bet on dp on pts at 14/1 as it's value for me and dp won't tire and if the above scenario happens khabib will have no answer
straight win also at 7/2

straight win on felder 6/5
smaller on felder pts 3/1

SlowBlowin

This is funny we have all backed a fighter we expect to lose......

That should be not surprised if he loses.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

This is a possibility imo which is why I have had a small bet on dp on pts at 14/1 as it's value for me and dp won't tire and if the above scenario happens khabib will have no answer
straight win also at 7/2

straight win on felder 6/5
smaller on felder pts 3/1

have a double on the two also which I'm gonna let run and a full euro
on the method double at 59/1 :pac: