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January 2011 forecast contest

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    #92
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,880 ✭✭✭pauldry


    What a boring month January turned out to be weatherwise when we are talking about 0.1cm of snow being the main event! :D


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    #93
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After 28 days (almost the final figures now) ...

    IMT was 3.5 (could finish around 3.3 now)

    precip for the past week only 15% so that has fallen to 64% of normal, however, the ag report has more stations than the monthly summary so this is only an approximation. A heavy rain late Monday might help some of us. It would need to be 50-70 mms to bring the month up to normal though (and looks more like 10-20, so finishing near 70 per cent possibly).

    Sunshine data were incomplete, I am estimating 125% for the week (it varies considerably) which will reduce the ongoing average to about 135 to 140. The final three days will probably see that figure somewhat lower but with the missing data, not too certain on that either.


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    #94
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »

    IMT was 3.5 (could finish around 3.3 now)

    Spot on M.T. Final January IMT is 3.3c, which is 1.3c below the 61-90 average. Have no idea who guessed the closest but I am pretty sure it wasn't me!

    Some tables:

    IMT for January 2009/2010/2011.
    145990.jpg

    This January is the 3rd consecutive January to finish below normal temperature wise.


    'IMR' Irish Mean Rainfall (not used in competition) for the month:
    145989.jpg

    January was another very dry month and it was the 2nd consecutive January to have less than 70% of normal rainfall.

    In summary, January 2011 was cooler and much drier than normal over the IMT zone.



    Satelite animation of the entire month:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91Pgno33WgM


    from Sat.24.



    Images and data courtesy of

    Met Eireann
    Sat 24


  • Options
    #95
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The final numbers for January 2011 are in ... and they are ...

    IMT 3.3 C

    max 12.8 C (Dublin 15th)

    min -7.0 C (Ballyhaise 7th)

    precip 63% of normal

    sunshine 154% of normal

    Danno's snow total -- 0.1 cm

    Look for the scores in a while, this thread (won't start an annual scoring thread until March and the winter contest are over).


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    #96
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    January scores ...
    __________________

    FORECASTER ....... IMT .. MAX .. MIN .. PRC .. SUN .. SNOW .. TOTAL
    __________________________________________________________

    Actual values ....... 3.3 ... 12.8 .. -7.0 .. 063 .. 154 .. 0.1 ... (total)

    kindredspirit ......... 23 .... 17 .... 10 .... 12 .... 02 ..... 1 .... 65
    Caesar Augustus ... 24 .... 20 .... 02 .... 09 .... 09 ..... 0 .... 64
    Jerry Seinfeld ....... 22 .... 19 .... 03* ... 13 .... 00 ..... 2 .... 59
    200motels ............ 13 .... 04 .... 15 .... 14 .... 07 ..... 5 .... 58
    Beasterly ............. 24 .... 19 ..... 05 ... 01 .... 07 ..... 0 ..... 56
    Tae laidir ............. 21 .... 03 .... 20 .... 00 .... 00 ...... 8 .... 52
    SeaFields.............. 19 .... 17 .... 00 .... 09 .... 00 ...... 6 .... 51
    mickger844posts .... 23 .... 11 .... 02* .. 10 .... 00 ..... 5 .... 51
    kuro_man ............. 19 .... 04 .... 03* ... 08 .... 05 ... 10 .... 49
    Brenireland ........... 23 .... 13 .... 00 .... 01 .... 06 ...... 5 .... 48
    Strasser .............. 11 .... 13 ..... 15 .... 01 .... 00 ..... 7 .... 47
    H2UMrsRobinson .... 24 .... 17 .... 00 .... 04 .... 01 ..... 0 .... 46
    Harps .................. 23 .... 10 .... 00 .... 08 .... 05 ..... 0 .... 46
    John mac ............. 20 .... 14 .... 02* .. 00 .... 00 ..... 8 .... 44
    nacho libre ........... 23 .... 13 .... 00 .... 01 .... 06 ..... 0 .... 43
    DeepEasterly ........ 05 .... 20 .... 07 .... 00 .... 00 .... 10 .... 42
    jambofc ............... 06 .... 09 .... 18 .... 00 .... 01 ..... 8 .... 42
    Ahorseofaman ....... 17 .... 13 .... 00 .... 08 .... 04 ..... 0 .... 42

    Con Sensus .......... 23 .... 11 .... 00 .... 06 .... 02 ..... 0 .... 42

    nilhg .................... 20 .... 03 .... 01* .. 10 .... 03 ..... 4 .... 41
    Aquals ................. 17 .... 12 .... 00 .... 08 .... 04 ..... 0 .... 41
    thetonynator ........ 12 .... 09 .... 00 .... 13 .... 07 ..... 0 .... 41
    steveLFC24 .......... 20 .... 14 .... 00 .... 05 .... 01 ..... 0 .... 40
    talkabout ............. 19 .... 20 .... 00 .... 01 .... 00 ..... 0 .... 40
    fionagus .............. 19 .... 01 .... 01* .. 13 .... 00 ...... 6 .... 40
    Su Campu ............ 20 .... 00 .... 00 .... 10 .... 01 ...... 8 .... 39
    Wild Bill ................ 19 .... 10 .... 00 .... 08 .... 02 ..... 0 .... 39
    dacogawa ............ 24 .... 14 .... 00 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 0 .... 38
    roryc1 ................. 22 .... 07 .... 00 .... 06 .... 03 ..... 0 .... 38
    Pauldry ................ 21 .... 12 .... 03* .. 00 .... 01 ..... 0 .... 37
    M.T. Cranium ........ 07 .... 15 .... 00 .... 06 .... 09 ..... 0 .... 37
    waterways ........... 09 .... 05 .... 08 .... 08 .... 04 ..... 3 .... 37
    cherryghost .......... 23 .... 03 .... 00 .... 00 .... 04 ..... 5 .... 35
    Joe Public ............ 19 .... 11 .... 00 .... 03 .... 00 ..... 0 .... 33
    TheInquisitor ........ 15 .... 08 .... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 10 .... 33
    Danno ................. 15 .... 09 .... 00 .... 03 .... 05 ..... 0 .... 32
    homolumo ............ 13 .... 00 .... 00 .... 14 .... 04 ..... 0 .... 31
    DOCARCH ............. 13 .... 10 .... 00 .... 05 .... 03 .... 0 .... 31
    rameire*............... 16 .... 09 .... 00 .... 00 .... 01 ..... 4 .... 30
    hellboy99 ............. 18 .... 07 .... 00 .... 00 .... 02 ..... 2 .... 29
    fizzycyst ............. 07 .... 13 .... 00 .... 06 .... 01 ..... 0 .... 27
    WolfeIRE .............. 13 .... 02 .... 00 .... 08 .... 01 ..... 1 .... 25
    4sheets ............... 04 .... 09 .... 01* .. 05 .... 00 ..... 5 .... 24
    redsunset ............ 09 .... 08 .... 00 .... 00 .... 07 ..... 0 .... 24
    Sponge Bob .......... 10 .... 00 .... 00 .... 07 .... 03 ..... 3 .... 23
    jd ....................... 19 .... 00 .... 00 .... 02 .... 02 ..... 0 .... 23
    Rebelbrowser ........ 13 .... 00 .... 00 .... 07 .... 01 ..... 0 .... 21
    dasa29 ................ 10 .... 00 .... 00 .... 08 .... 02 ..... 0 .... 20
    baraca ................ 12 .... 00 .... 00 .... 04 .... 03 ..... 0 .... 19

    Congrats to Kindredspirit and Caesar Augustus (ave) for leading the way in this first contest of the year. Scores were generated the usual way in all cases except that the minimum for the month gave a few less near the bottom of the ranks so the minimum progression was brought in and gave a few points to those between -9 and -10 who were otherwise out of the scoring range. The higher part of that category filled out okay. This is a fairly normal month overall for scoring with Con Sensus hitting 42, about average.

    I scored the snowfall by taking your prediction and then the difference from zero, up to 10 cms above which no points. So, 2 cms was worth 8 points, etc.

    Check my addition although I have twice ... and don't forget to play in February (see that thread for details).


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