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January 2011 forecast contest

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13

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    #62
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    For anyone reading Deep Easterlys post.

    The IMT ( Mean) is calculated from 5 Synoptic Stations for the purposes of the Boards competitions...Synoptic meaning a full service met eireann station for the uninitiated.

    Min and Max are calculated from ANY synoptic station, there are 18 of them and they are listed here and with the current and historical Synoptic stations shown here in case anyone is wondering why Clones is not as cold as it was. :)

    The Minimum Temperature Records in December were actually set on Climatological stations not Synoptic stations. Mount Juliet and Foxford were nationally notorious for a day or two.

    The Climatological stations do not count in the Boards competitions...unless M.T sets a special question.

    The Climatological stations are shown ALONG with the Synoptic stations here . Mount Juliet and Foxford are confusingly shown as Thomastown and Straide ...respectively on that map of all the different stations.


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    #63
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    11.2 at Valentia on Monday, but this likely to be nudged aside this week, I think.


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    #64
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    It's 11.3C in Sandyford (light westerly, cloudy, dry) at the moment - I assume it is about a degree warmer on the coast.

    Feels like another country!:)


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    #65
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,508 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    It's 11.3C in Sandyford (light westerly, cloudy, dry) at the moment - I assume it is about a degree warmer on the coast.

    Feels like another country!:)

    Feels like Ireland again :P


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    #66
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    12.3c in Valentia yesterday with lots of 11c temps in the latest report @9am today.


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    #67
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,710 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    12.3c in Valentia yesterday with lots of 11c temps in the latest report @9am today.

    Max of 12.4c at Valentia yesterday according to ME.


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    #68
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Well, we made 13.3C here in dull cloudy dry conditions with only a light southerly/westerly/SW (it wandered around).

    This is 1.5C higher than at the two Dublin Met stations which are lower down. Not sure why that sometimes happens.


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    #69
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    You are a one man UHI Bill....warming whatever globe you walk on. :)


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    #70
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updates through 14 days ...

    IMT has risen to 3.8 C (est 4.0 with today)

    Precip now at 77% of normal (est 85% with today)

    Sunshine now at 105% of normal (est 100% with today)

    Highest temp confirmed 12.4 C but one day missing from Valentia and today's readings to be checked. Lowest -7.0 C ... 0.1 cm snow reported by Danno.


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    #71
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,710 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    12.7c max at Finner Camp yesterday.


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    #72
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    That missing day at Valentia is now posted and only reached 12.2, so no changes to the above.

    IMT has reached 4.4 C now, but may slump back down a bit this week.


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    #73
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Some Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) titbits.

    To date, Valentia Observatory holds the record for the highest MSLP value recorded in Ireland which was read at 0000hrs 29th January 1905 when a value of 1951.9 hPa was observed.

    Highest recorded MSLP values at some other met eireann stations:

    Belmullet: 1050.9 hPa (16th Jan 1957)
    Claremorris: 1050.8 hPa (16th Jan 1957)
    Malin Head: 1050.6 hPa (16th Jan 1957)
    Kilkenny: 1049.1 hPa (7th Feb 1964)
    Birr: 1049.4 hPa (16th Jan 1957)
    Shannon Airport: 1049.4 (16th Jan 1957)
    Dublin Apt: 1048.8 hPa (16th Jan 1957)
    Casement: 1048.5 hPa (7th Feb 1964)
    Rosslare: 1048.4 hPa (7th Feb 1964)
    Cork Airport: 1048.4 hPa (7th Feb 1964)


    Synoptic charts for both 16th Jan 1957 & 7th Feb 1964, when some of the highest MSLP values were recorded over the country:

    144409.jpg144410.jpg



    It is interesting to note that the highest MSLP values over the country in any one given year will more often than not be recorded in either January or February despite these months having the lowest average MSLP values of of any month during the year.


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    #74
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Some Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) titbits.

    To date, Valentia Observatory holds the record for the highest MSLP value recorded in Ireland which was read at 0000hrs 29th January 1905 when a value of 1951.9 hPa was observed.

    Wow, people must have got the bends when that high eventually moved away!! :D


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    #75
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    World record (equivalent sea level pressure) was 1085.6 in Mongolia on Dec 19th 2001.

    Edit: might be incorrect, theres a lot of dodgy records on that wikipedia page . .:P


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    #76
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update after 21 days (3 weeks) ...

    IMT stands at 3.6 C

    Precip has fallen back to 73% of normal after a week near 64%.

    Sunshine has surged ahead to 147% after a week that registered 230%.

    Predictions now -- 2.8, 55%, 150% if this spell continues to end of month.


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    #77
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT was 3.5 C after 25 days.

    Just wondering, is there a set date for the election yet? I am thinking about the bonus question for February's contest which should be posted later today. Thanks.


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    #78
    rameire
    Registered Users Posts: 4,117 ✭✭✭rameire


    so far the Election is set for the 25th of Feb.

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



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    #79
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    rameire wrote: »
    so far the Election is set for the 25th of Feb.

    edit: didn't see the above posts, sorry for being so retarded! :rolleyes:


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    #80
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,108 ✭✭✭John mac


    rameire wrote: »
    so far the Election is set for the 25th of Feb.

    not set in stone though..


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    #81
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I decided to go with the Valentines' Day question instead, since this election thing seems to be a work in progress and the 25th is very late in the month to be guessing. Anyway, I have opened the February contest thread.

    Meanwhile, the IMT after the 26th stands at 3.66 C and looks like it might drift down very slightly now, so landing zone probably 3.5-3.6. Still a rather cold month considering there were about seven very mild days.

    I will update precip and sunshine on Saturday but looks like about 60% and 140% at this point.

    I think the bonus question stands at 0.1 cm. :o


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    #82
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    And we're sure about that .1cm. I mean it seems more likely to be a heavy frost than snow. (Come on i want full points , i predicted 0 cm lol)


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    #83
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    And we're sure about that .1cm. I mean it seems more likely to be a heavy frost than snow. (Come on i want full points , i predicted 0 cm lol)

    i think that 0.1 fell at the start of the month when areas further west were getting plastered with snow, not during the frost. Not that it'll make a difference to my prediction!


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    #84
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    thetonynator wrote: »
    i think that 0.1 fell at the start of the month when areas further west were getting plastered with snow, not during the frost. Not that it'll make a difference to my prediction!
    Danno wrote: »
    tr (23.5cm) January 7th 2010
    0.1cm (23.6cm) January 8th 2010

    I dunno, i didn't think anything fell around the 7th??


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    #85
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    I dunno, i didn't think anything fell around the 7th??

    that was the day when that front came from the south and gave a lot of snow to kerry, limerick and tipp, and a dusting to a few other areas. Mostly rain in the eastern half of the country.


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    #86
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    http://www.laoisweather.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=58&Itemid=66&637785ce63d5d53727ddaf08c2f3f540=5c7c142b87cb79d26ded1817688bd3c1

    He has nothing on his page regarding precipition on the 7th. It all fell on the 8th in the form of rain.


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    #87
    fizzycyst
    Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    I dunno, i didn't think anything fell around the 7th??
    January 2010 was 12 months ago guys, we're in 2011!! :p


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    #88
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    It was posted on the 10/01/11 and is for the period 07/01/11. He made a minor mistake in the post


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    #89
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Danno's reports on snow cover a 24h period ending at 0900 each day. In any case, unless it snows before the end of the month, the zero forecasts are going to get the maximum points in that section as they are all closest to the actual reported. So zero, trace or 0.1 cm, won't make any difference to the scores.


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    #90
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    Excellent! It's too bad i got everything else wrong!


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    #91
    fizzycyst
    Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    Excellent! It's too bad i got everything else wrong!
    well done Inquisitor!


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