January 2011 forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

OMG, it's that time again ... enter the January 2011 Boards forecast contest by the end of Sat 1 Jan (penalties apply to entries received Sun 2 Jan). I have received one already by PM which I will post later.

Most of you will know the drill by now, but with this being the first month of the new year, I give somewhat more detailed rules than usual.

Here's what you need to predict:

(1) The monthly mean temperature in degrees C. We use a five-station index developed by Deep Easterly, it includes Shannon, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Casement, and it's called the IMT (Irish mean temperature). The average value back in 1961-90 for this would be 4.6 C. Last year was only 1.8 degrees. This is worth 25% of the points.

(2) The highest temperature for the month at any of the 18 regularly reporting stations on the met.ie website, in deg C (use one decimal place). This is worth 20% of the points.

(3) The lowest temperature etc (same as above)

(4) The percentage of normal rainfall (which is defined to include melted equivalent of snow), at reporting stations of met.ie on the agricultural page, about fourteen stations in all ... and remember, normal means 100%, if you're new to this, most months end up somewhere between 50 and 150 per cent, don't predict something like 120% above normal meaning 120% of normal because it confuses the Cranium (and most things do). This is worth 15% of the points.

(5) The percentage of sunshine, same deal as above, only six stations report it and they are scattered around the country fairly evenly except that both Casement and Dublin are among the six, so if you want to estimate that figure with such details in mind, you'll be far out in front of the pack here. This is worth 10% of the points.

(6) We always have a bonus question for 10%. This month, predict how much snow will be reported (by adding daily measurements taken at 0900h) by Danno at his Durrow observation site; he reports these when they happen on the winter forecast contest thread. To give you some idea, he has reported 18 cms so far this winter, so he's not in the snowiest of locations but he gets his fair share. In case this comes up, amounts reported 1 Jan and 1 Feb will be counted only if I feel that the snow fell in January.

Now, regulars already know this, but newcomers and first-timers please note, we generally use a template to save on the work (and bandwidth) so rather than block-copying the above, just replace the letters below with your numbers ...

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PREC ..... SUN ..... SNOW

and enter whenever you like, and a table of all entries will be available about the 2nd or 3rd (whenever I stagger in from New Years).

A reminder, entries due by end of Sat 1st Jan, penalty applies 2nd, no entries after that.

200motels

MEAN 2.1..... MAX 11.2 ..... MIN -6.5..... PREC .60%.... SUN 168%..... SNOW 5cm

thetonynator

Not ready to enter yet, but in case anyone was looking for it i said i'd bump it up a little . .:cool:

H2UMrsRobinson

MEAN 3.2 MAX 13.1 MIN -14.5 PREC 95% SUN 110% SNOW 12cm

M.T. Cranium

This is from Pauldry by PM ...

(1) mean temperature (IMT) for Jan 3.7c

(2) highest temperature on met.ie stations for Jan 12.0c

(3) lowest temperature on met.ie stations for Jan -9c

(4) rainfall (melted precip) as percentage of normal for Jan 109%

(5) sunshine as percentage of normal for Jan 110%

(6)Snow Depth 10cm

Aquals

MEAN 2.5 MAX 12 MIN -16 PREC 85% SUN 124% SNOW 16cm

4 ..... 11.5 ..... -11 ..... 109 ..... 115 ..... 8

nacho libre

3.1 ..... 13..5 ..... -10.3 ..... 105 ..... 135 ..... 10

BEASTERLY

MEAN.4 MAX:12.9 MIN:-8.5 PREC:105% SUN:140% SNOW:10cm

cherryghost

Gonna be a bit bold

MEAN: 3.5
MAX:14.5
MIN:-11.3
PREC:115%
SUN:125%
SNOW:5cm

Harps

3.1 ..... 11.8 ..... -11.5 ..... 85 ..... 130 ..... 12cm

jd

2.7,10.8,-11.1,101%,112%,11cm

fizzycyst

1.5 12.1 -14.3 90% 110% 10cm

Strasser

4.7,13.5,-7.5,105%,95%,3 cm

kuro_man

MEAN.9 MAX:11.2 MIN:-9 PREC:85% SUN:130% SNOW:0cm

talkabout

3.9 ..... 12.8 ..... -13.5 ..... 105 ..... 95 ..... 19cm

TheMilkyPirate

MEAN 2.0 MAX 10.5 MIN -14 PREC 95% SUN 120% SNOW 11cm

homolumo

2.1 ..... 10.1 ..... -12.3 ..... 65 ..... 125 ..... 14

roryc1

MEAN 3.0c, MAX 11.5c, MIN -10, PREC 90% SUN 120% SNOW 15cm

Deep Easterly

5.3c ..... 12.8 .....-8.3 ..... 108 ..... 90 ..... 0cm

Ahorseofaman

4.1...12.1..-14...85%...125%...30cm

dacogawa

MEAN 3.2, MAX 12.2, MIN -13.0, PREC 119%, SUN 93%, SNOW 14cm

Lumi

3.9 ..... 10.9 ..... -9.7 ..... 68 ..... 95 ..... 4

thetonynator

2.0 ..... 11.7 ..... -11.5 ..... 70% ..... 140% ..... 13cm

Happy new year!

mickger844posts

MEAN 3.1c MAX 11.9c MIN -9.2c PREC 77% SUN 89% SNOW 5cm

WolfeIRE

MEAN 4.5c MAX 11c MIN -12 PREC 85% SUN 110% SNOW 9cm

Brenireland

mean 3.1 max 13.5 Min-10.3 precip 105% sun 135% snow 5cm

Joe Public

MEAN 3.9..... MAX 11.9 ..... MIN -11.9..... PREC 99%.... SUN 99%..... SNOW 12.9cm

dasa29

MEAN 1.8c, MAX 10.5c, MIN -10, PREC 85% SUN 115% SNOW 30cm:D

SeaFields

3.9..... 12.5 ..... -12.8 ..... 80 ..... 100..... 4

Marcus.Aurelius

MEAN 3.4
MAX 12.8
MIN -8.8
PREC 80%
SUN 150%
SNOW 11cm

waterways

1.7 ..... 11.3 ..... -8.2 ..... 83 ..... 123 ..... 7

Who is the one with 0 at the end? Of course I'm talking about the snow.

M.T. Cranium

I can't edit the first post, but have mentioned in the Dec 2010 thread that a slight change to the "mercy rule" or minimum scoring progression will be needed because of our larger field of entrants. The old rule was giving about one-third of contestants a score in unusual situations. Now we will have more like half getting a score ...

These will be the minimum progressions (you can score more in some situations but nobody would score less than their rank order suggests here):

"the minimum scoring rule is also supposed to even out the months so that it doesn't matter as much which two you miss or score low. For that reason, I am going to add two scores to the progressions, so that they will go like this (as a minimum) ..."

out of 25 .... 23, 20, 16, 14, 12, 10, 9, 8 etc
out of 20 .... 18, 15, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8 etc
out of 15 .... 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, etc (this for precip)
out of 10 .... same as before but two scores each, starting with 9 etc. (this for sunshine, the bonus questions will always be scored on rank order with a minimum of two-thirds of entrants qualifying for points).

---

My forecast follows:

1.5 ..... 13.3 ..... -14.0 ..... 090 ..... 160 ..... 18

Group photo:

:D:p:);):o:):mad::(:p:cool::eek::P:confused:

nilhg

2.8C ..... 11.1C ..... -9.9C ..... 78% ..... 119% ..... 6CM

4Sheets

MEAN 5.4
MAX 11.7
MIN -9.8
PREC 94%
SUN 92%
SNOW 5cm

Its starting off tame enough hope Im wrong:D

Tae laidir

3.7 ..... 11.1 ..... -7.0 ..... 124 ..... 89..... 2.0

DOCARCH

2.1 ..... 13.8 ..... -12.8 ..... 93% ..... 118% ..... 17cm

John mac

3.8..... 13.4..... -9.3..... 120 ..... 98..... 2

jambofc

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PREC ..... SUN ..... SNOW
5.2 11.7 -6.8 110% 105% 2cm

Su Campu

3.8.....10.5.....-16.4.....75.....105.....2.5

Rebelbrowser

2.1 ..... 10.6 ..... -12.8 ..... 88 ..... 107 ..... 12

kindredspirit

3.1°C ..... 13.1°C ..... -8°C ..... 73% ..... 115% ..... 9.5cm

Wild Bill

MEAN 2.7 MAX 11.8 MIN -14.7 PREC 83% SUN 115% SNOW 16cm

Speak Now

3.6.....12.9.....-9.....70.....100.....8

Danno

MEAN 4.3..... MAX 11.7 ..... MIN -10.8..... PREC 100%.... SUN 130%..... SNOW 14cm

Sponge Bob

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PREC ..... SUN ..... SNOW
4.8..... 10.8 ...... -10.8.... 86..... 118 .....7cm

steveLFC24

MEAN 2.8 MAX 12.2 MIN -15.6 PREC 93% SUN 110% SNOW 13cm

First shot at this, so not very confident :pac:

M.T. Cranium

Last call for forecasts without penalty ... to midnight ... the penalty will be applied to late entries on the 2nd ... and it is basically a reduction by 10% of scores above 65, with scores 61-65 reduced to 60. This has only actually happened once or twice in about a dozen possible cases anyway, so enter on the 2nd if you wish, probably won't cost you much.

TheInquisitor

2.3C ..... 14C ..... -12C ..... 120% ..... 100% ..... 0cm

Redsunset

1.7 ..... 11 ..... -14 ..... 115 ..... 140 ..... 32

rameire

2.4 ..... 13.9 ..... -14.6 ..... 108 ..... 105 ..... 6cm

might aswell get in even with a penalty.