January 2011 forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 24-12-2010 10:05pm #1

OMG, it's that time again ... enter the January 2011 Boards forecast contest by the end of Sat 1 Jan (penalties apply to entries received Sun 2 Jan). I have received one already by PM which I will post later.

Most of you will know the drill by now, but with this being the first month of the new year, I give somewhat more detailed rules than usual.

Here's what you need to predict:

(1) The monthly mean temperature in degrees C. We use a five-station index developed by Deep Easterly, it includes Shannon, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Casement, and it's called the IMT (Irish mean temperature). The average value back in 1961-90 for this would be 4.6 C. Last year was only 1.8 degrees. This is worth 25% of the points.

(2) The highest temperature for the month at any of the 18 regularly reporting stations on the met.ie website, in deg C (use one decimal place). This is worth 20% of the points.

(3) The lowest temperature etc (same as above)

(4) The percentage of normal rainfall (which is defined to include melted equivalent of snow), at reporting stations of met.ie on the agricultural page, about fourteen stations in all ... and remember, normal means 100%, if you're new to this, most months end up somewhere between 50 and 150 per cent, don't predict something like 120% above normal meaning 120% of normal because it confuses the Cranium (and most things do). This is worth 15% of the points.

(5) The percentage of sunshine, same deal as above, only six stations report it and they are scattered around the country fairly evenly except that both Casement and Dublin are among the six, so if you want to estimate that figure with such details in mind, you'll be far out in front of the pack here. This is worth 10% of the points.

(6) We always have a bonus question for 10%. This month, predict how much snow will be reported (by adding daily measurements taken at 0900h) by Danno at his Durrow observation site; he reports these when they happen on the winter forecast contest thread. To give you some idea, he has reported 18 cms so far this winter, so he's not in the snowiest of locations but he gets his fair share. In case this comes up, amounts reported 1 Jan and 1 Feb will be counted only if I feel that the snow fell in January.

Now, regulars already know this, but newcomers and first-timers please note, we generally use a template to save on the work (and bandwidth) so rather than block-copying the above, just replace the letters below with your numbers ...

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PREC ..... SUN ..... SNOW

and enter whenever you like, and a table of all entries will be available about the 2nd or 3rd (whenever I stagger in from New Years).

A reminder, entries due by end of Sat 1st Jan, penalty applies 2nd, no entries after that.

200motels · 24-12-2010 10:54pm

MEAN 2.1..... MAX 11.2 ..... MIN -6.5..... PREC .60%.... SUN 168%..... SNOW 5cm

thetonynator · 26-12-2010 11:53pm

Not ready to enter yet, but in case anyone was looking for it i said i'd bump it up a little . .:cool:

H2UMrsRobinson · 27-12-2010 12:43am

MEAN 3.2 MAX 13.1 MIN -14.5 PREC 95% SUN 110% SNOW 12cm

M.T. Cranium · 27-12-2010 4:08am

This is from Pauldry by PM ...

(1) mean temperature (IMT) for Jan 3.7c

(2) highest temperature on met.ie stations for Jan 12.0c

(3) lowest temperature on met.ie stations for Jan -9c

(4) rainfall (melted precip) as percentage of normal for Jan 109%

(5) sunshine as percentage of normal for Jan 110%

(6)Snow Depth 10cm