Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

snow ghost

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just for the record, the Greenland high is somewhat of an artificial construct, pressures reduced to sea level from conditions on top of a 3,000m a.s.l. ice plateau. But still, the highest I've seen before in these Greenland highs would be around 1068 mbs. And the sea level pressure really does get up almost that high near sea level in Greenland. Highs like this are almost always products of retrogression of Atlantic highs, they wouldn't migrate south very often. Usually they would sit there for a while, pulsating, and there would be further retrogression until the main centre was off in Baffin Island, then the Greenland high would fade. That's what usually happens to them. But on the larger scale, if they get linked to Scandinavian highs, it can set up a long-lasting block for Ireland and the U.K.

To show how extreme this high would be (if it verifies) the highest pressure in Europe in the past two centuries appears to be 1067 mbs and similar for North America, while eastern Siberia has probably exceeded 1080 mbs a few times. I believe the highest ever recorded in Ireland is about 1052 mbs.

Yeah man

M.T. Cranium

The 00z GFS run is a bit of an upgrade (so far) and yet there's still room for development. The thing that I find truly staggering is the scale of this arctic outbreak, it basically reverses the normal southwesterly flow over the North Atlantic and changes it to northeast everywhere north of about 47 deg by next Friday. We have to keep in mind that we're looking at maps that very few people have seen in real time, maybe if you were working in a met office in late 1962 or early 1963, or in Feb 1947. That's how dramatic this pattern is, now as to the details, those will come into focus better when we know for sure how robust the cold surface layers will be once the inevitable push back comes. The theme keeps developing towards the theoretical energy peak on the 20th (full moon is 21 Dec 08z). This is really exciting me as a researcher and forecaster, to see how this is evolving towards a winter storm scenario, but before that happens there will be on-shore streamers forming in various coastal areas moving some distance inland, so I think the way this is evolving at present, we should be fairly confident of a widespread snow cover developing in Ireland during the four days Thursday to Sunday before a two to three day storm window of opportunity. That snow cover of course would play into the development potential by further cooling the surface air masses.

As for conditions over in Britain, that looks positively frigid with the slack gradient that follows the initial onslaught of very cold air, they are bound to get enough of a snow cover to guarantee extreme cold under those sorts of upper conditions. Could see local -16 to -24 C overnight lows in parts of Scotland and northern, even central England, inland Wales on those maps, and that should equate to potential for lows similar to the last cold spell in Ireland.

This signal is so robust and long-heralded on the models (even more so elsewhere :cool: ) that I feel like the general idea is a done deal now, it's down to the details. The key event will be the pushback of low pressure around the south in the time frame of Mon 20th to Wed 22nd. This could very well turn out to be a snowstorm. This may sound like backwards logic but a very cold winter should have snowstorms, and snowstorms should occur when the cold has stopped advancing.

Vudgie

My car was reading 5 degrees in Dublin's City Centre this morning (6:30am) (I know not completely accurate). This is pretty incredible given that it appeared to be freezing hard at 9pm last night.

Our only saving grace is if we get lots of snow later in the week is that we got a chance for a good thaw to occur so at least we are starting from scratch in a lot of areas.

This will be an interesting week by all accounts.

gally74

hard frost in galway, of couse not given by met eireann

snaps

very white hard frost here, -3.4c currently. Humidity very high at 95%

Strange to see such a contrast in temps over the country this morning. Looking at the east/south east temps as high as 7c?

irish1967

Mmmmmmm. I can smell a new thread coming up. One with severe in the title and the words possible and potential no where to be seen

snow ghost

irish1967 wrote: »

Mmmmmmm. I can smell a new thread coming up. One with severe in the title and the words possible and potential no where to be seen

But maybe the words:

"Cataclysmic" "Epic"

Looks like exciting times are ahead.

roryc1

irish1967 wrote: »

Mmmmmmm. I can smell a new thread coming up. One with severe in the title and the words possible and potential no where to be seen

Severe for the Northwest, in the title

alfa beta

irish1967 wrote: »

Mmmmmmm. I can smell a new thread coming up. One with severe in the title and the words possible and potential no where to be seen

but including the words 'marginal', 'rain' and 'Cork'!!

snow ghost

Anyone live just North of Wexford?

snaps

snaps wrote: »

very white hard frost here, -3.4c currently. Humidity very high at 95%

Strange to see such a contrast in temps over the country this morning. Looking at the east/south east temps as high as 7c?

cloudy here with a temporary coastal breeze hence the higher temps.
Also initially anyway as I've stated from the beginning of this thread,the upcoming event will be a big affair for Ulster,North Connaught and West munster

desolate sun

gally74 wrote: »

hard frost in galway, of couse not given by met eireann

the weather on the TV last night said the country would get hard frost

maquiladora

Exciting to see MT mention the type of charts not seen since the great winters of 62/63 & 47.

leahyl

snow ghost wrote: »

Anyone live just North of Wexford?

Lads seriously though what are the chances of Cork getting in on any of this action??:)

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Lads seriously though what are the chances of Cork getting in on any of this action??:)

its not all doom and gloom is all i'm saying leahyl! still too early to be accurate but set up seems to suit us better than the easterly attack last time(i think)!

leahyl

munsterlegend wrote: »

its not all doom and gloom is all i'm saying leahyl! still too early to be accurate but set up seems to suit us better than the easterly attack last time(i think)!

Well that's good...:D

gbee

Duiske wrote: »

Just from a quick look at the latest charts, Donegal is going to get some serious falls of snow from about midday Thursday.

Hope Graces7 has the supplies in. !!

She could not stand another winter up there, she's in west Cork now.

Vudgie

gbee wrote: »

She could not stand another winter up there, she's in west Cork now.

I would have thought that Tenerife would have been a better option!!;)

gbee

Vudgie wrote: »

I would have thought that Tenerife would have been a better option!!;)

Especially as the weather seems to be following her!!!

200motels

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 00z GFS run is a bit of an upgrade (so far) and yet there's still room for development. The thing that I find truly staggering is the scale of this arctic outbreak, it basically reverses the normal southwesterly flow over the North Atlantic and changes it to northeast everywhere north of about 47 deg by next Friday. We have to keep in mind that we're looking at maps that very few people have seen in real time, maybe if you were working in a met office in late 1962 or early 1963, or in Feb 1947. That's how dramatic this pattern is, now as to the details, those will come into focus better when we know for sure how robust the cold surface layers will be once the inevitable push back comes. The theme keeps developing towards the theoretical energy peak on the 20th (full moon is 21 Dec 08z). This is really exciting me as a researcher and forecaster, to see how this is evolving towards a winter storm scenario, but before that happens there will be on-shore streamers forming in various coastal areas moving some distance inland, so I think the way this is evolving at present, we should be fairly confident of a widespread snow cover developing in Ireland during the four days Thursday to Sunday before a two to three day storm window of opportunity. That snow cover of course would play into the development potential by further cooling the surface air masses.

As for conditions over in Britain, that looks positively frigid with the slack gradient that follows the initial onslaught of very cold air, they are bound to get enough of a snow cover to guarantee extreme cold under those sorts of upper conditions. Could see local -16 to -24 C overnight lows in parts of Scotland and northern, even central England, inland Wales on those maps, and that should equate to potential for lows similar to the last cold spell in Ireland.

This signal is so robust and long-heralded on the models (even more so elsewhere :cool: ) that I feel like the general idea is a done deal now, it's down to the details. The key event will be the pushback of low pressure around the south in the time frame of Mon 20th to Wed 22nd. This could very well turn out to be a snowstorm. This may sound like backwards logic but a very cold winter should have snowstorms, and snowstorms should occur when the cold has stopped advancing.

Brilliant read MT as usual.

demakinz

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

upgrade--truly staggering--arctic outbreak, --1962 or early 1963, or in Feb 1947.--dramatic--really exciting me--winter storm--streamers forming--evolving at present--confident--widespread snow cover--robust and long-heralded--feel like the general idea is a done deal now--snowstorm--a very cold winter--snowstorms--snowstorms

:D:D Thanks MT

vibe666

Vudgie wrote: »

I would have thought that Tenerife would have been a better option!!;)

as long as she isn't up mt. teide, they get snow up there most years too!

weird weather this morning. came home from a day out around 5:30pm last night and the roads were already icing up and there was frost on car windscreens on my street so i figured it would be bad this morning.

got up and not a bit of frost to be seen and it was actually reasonably warm outside. i guess we got some cloud cover during the night, but it was odd seeing it dip so low that early in the evening and then to have it so mild this morning.

cowhands

Ye are all very clever and intelligent and the charts look lovely but can we just put this in plain English...

What is the weather going to be like for the next two weeks?
I have to travel to the midlands for Christmas and Im shi-tting a brick

gbee

cowhands wrote: »

Ye are all very clever and intelligent and the charts look lovely but can we just put this in plain English...

That's what Met Eireann is for. Expect 'Wintry Weather'

pistolpetes11

cowhands wrote: »

Ye are all very clever and intelligent and the charts look lovely but can we just put this in plain English...

What is the weather going to be like for the next two weeks?
I have to travel to the midlands for Christmas and Im shi-tting a brick

Here you go

darkman2 wrote: »

The models looking a bit more solid now. Basically on Thursday a band of rain will sink South early in the day turning to sleet and snow as it passes with the possibility of minor accumulations but nothing disruptive. Temperatures on Thursday will be increasingly cold, in fact, it will get cold so fast that whilst the day itself will start out at the dizzy heights of 6 or 7C it will end on temperatures sub zero almost nationwide. Ice will develope fast and could possibly effect rush hour home traffic.

Soon on Thursday heavy snow showers will pack into the North and Northwest and this will continue Thursday night and through Friday.

Thursday night will be very cold with temperatures between -2 and -6C generally. It will be dier away from the North for the first half of the night. However showers will push further inland as the night goes on reaching most places later in the night before clearing on Friday morning. These could bring appreciable accumulations - as much as 5 - 10cm but more in the North and Northwest.

Friday will be extremely cold. Temperatures will not rise above freezing all day and there will be snow showers esspecially in the West, Northwest, North and East of the country. Further probrably large accumulations likely.
Max Temperatures on Friday -2 to -5C.

Friday night countinues very cold and icy with further snow showers and futher laying snow. Temperatures as low as -9 or -10 locally. -4 to -8C more generally.


Saturday again will be exceptionally cold - temperatures not rising above freezing for most however this is where any uncertainty comes in. A depression will be centered over or very near the country and the winds will be variable - most likely Southerly or Southeasterly. Snow could occur just about anywhere and Saturday night is likely to be another viciously cold night under slack winds. More prolonged snow is most likely in the South and later the East into Sunday.

Sunday another very cold day with sub zero maxes mostly. Winds turning Northeastly at that stage and may strengthen a little.

The weekend on is still up in the air (pardon the pun!) a little bit but that's my closest interpretation. Will post charts as illustrations aswell later on.

DrEvil

cowhands wrote: »

Ye are all very clever and intelligent and the charts look lovely but can we just put this in plain English...

What is the weather going to be like for the next two weeks?
I have to travel to the midlands for Christmas and Im shi-tting a brick

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 00z GFS run is a bit of an upgrade (so far) and yet there's still room for development. The thing that I find truly staggering is the scale of this arctic outbreak, it basically reverses the normal southwesterly flow over the North Atlantic and changes it to northeast everywhere north of about 47 deg by next Friday. We have to keep in mind that we're looking at maps that very few people have seen in real time, maybe if you were working in a met office in late 1962 or early 1963, or in Feb 1947. That's how dramatic this pattern is, now as to the details, those will come into focus better when we know for sure how robust the cold surface layers will be once the inevitable push back comes. The theme keeps developing towards the theoretical energy peak on the 20th (full moon is 21 Dec 08z). This is really exciting me as a researcher and forecaster, to see how this is evolving towards a winter storm scenario, but before that happens there will be on-shore streamers forming in various coastal areas moving some distance inland, so I think the way this is evolving at present, we should be fairly confident of a widespread snow cover developing in Ireland during the four days Thursday to Sunday before a two to three day storm window of opportunity. That snow cover of course would play into the development potential by further cooling the surface air masses.

As for conditions over in Britain, that looks positively frigid with the slack gradient that follows the initial onslaught of very cold air, they are bound to get enough of a snow cover to guarantee extreme cold under those sorts of upper conditions. Could see local -16 to -24 C overnight lows in parts of Scotland and northern, even central England, inland Wales on those maps, and that should equate to potential for lows similar to the last cold spell in Ireland.

This signal is so robust and long-heralded on the models (even more so elsewhere :cool: ) that I feel like the general idea is a done deal now, it's down to the details. The key event will be the pushback of low pressure around the south in the time frame of Mon 20th to Wed 22nd. This could very well turn out to be a snowstorm. This may sound like backwards logic but a very cold winter should have snowstorms, and snowstorms should occur when the cold has stopped advancing.

kopp

DrEvil wrote: »

O rly?

snaps

gbee wrote: »

That's what Met Eireann is for. Expect 'Wintry Weather'

Or they say its going to turn "Unseasonal" ???????

Su Campu

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 00z GFS run is a bit of an upgrade (so far) and yet there's still room for development. The thing that I find truly staggering is the scale of this arctic outbreak, it basically reverses the normal southwesterly flow over the North Atlantic and changes it to northeast everywhere north of about 47 deg by next Friday. We have to keep in mind that we're looking at maps that very few people have seen in real time, maybe if you were working in a met office in late 1962 or early 1963, or in Feb 1947. That's how dramatic this pattern is, now as to the details, those will come into focus better when we know for sure how robust the cold surface layers will be once the inevitable push back comes. The theme keeps developing towards the theoretical energy peak on the 20th (full moon is 21 Dec 08z). This is really exciting me as a researcher and forecaster, to see how this is evolving towards a winter storm scenario, but before that happens there will be on-shore streamers forming in various coastal areas moving some distance inland, so I think the way this is evolving at present, we should be fairly confident of a widespread snow cover developing in Ireland during the four days Thursday to Sunday before a two to three day storm window of opportunity. That snow cover of course would play into the development potential by further cooling the surface air masses.

As for conditions over in Britain, that looks positively frigid with the slack gradient that follows the initial onslaught of very cold air, they are bound to get enough of a snow cover to guarantee extreme cold under those sorts of upper conditions. Could see local -16 to -24 C overnight lows in parts of Scotland and northern, even central England, inland Wales on those maps, and that should equate to potential for lows similar to the last cold spell in Ireland.

This signal is so robust and long-heralded on the models (even more so elsewhere :cool: ) that I feel like the general idea is a done deal now, it's down to the details. The key event will be the pushback of low pressure around the south in the time frame of Mon 20th to Wed 22nd. This could very well turn out to be a snowstorm. This may sound like backwards logic but a very cold winter should have snowstorms, and snowstorms should occur when the cold has stopped advancing.

Photoshop's great!

vibe666

cowhands wrote: »

Ye are all very clever and intelligent and the charts look lovely but can we just put this in plain English...

What is the weather going to be like for the next two weeks?
I have to travel to the midlands for Christmas and Im shi-tting a brick

effín cold and probably effín snowy almost everywhere followed by continued effíng cold followed by a spell of jesus it's effín baltic! :pac: