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Betting Systems?

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    #122
    OutlawPete
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    phantom_lord wrote: »
    how can 50/50 go in any way other than 50/50?

    It can't.


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    #123
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    It can't.
    that progressive systems are betting on is WHEN the 50/50 will go the opposite way to which it is currently

    So...


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    #124
    OutlawPete
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    phantom_lord wrote: »
    :pac:

    So, with this laugh, you are saying that the probability of the same six numbers coming out two weeks running are the same?

    So, if a newsreader comes on tomorrow's news and says:

    "Last weeks numbers are the same as this weeks. what are the chances?"

    You will laugh at him and say the chances are the same?? :p
    phantom_lord wrote: »
    So...

    What do you mean "So".

    You said: "Now we're back to 50/50 again" ..

    .. and I'm pointing out that the bet is always based on the 50/50 principal.


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    #125
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    So, with this laugh, you are saying that the probability of the same six numbers coming out two weeks running are the same?

    As long as no one tells the numbers; then yeah?

    OutlawPete wrote: »

    What do you mean "So".

    You said: "Now we're back to 50/50 again" ..

    .. and I'm pointing out that the bet is always based on 50/50.

    Just pointing out you're not making any sense?
    that progressive systems are betting on is WHEN the 50/50 will go the opposite way to which it is currently
    how can 50/50 go in any way other than 50/50?
    It can't.


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    #126
    BQQ
    Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭BQQ


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    The mathematical odds are the same, but the 'chances' are not.

    As in my example of lottery numbers.

    The odds of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row are the same, the probability is not.


    I don't get what the difference is between odds and probability in your example.
    the odds of any 6 numbers coming out is, let's say, 10 million to one.
    the odds of the same numbers coming out the next week is, as you say, the same.

    So, what's the probability that's different from 10 million to one?:confused:


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    #127
    OutlawPete
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    phantom_lord wrote: »
    Just pointing out you're not making any sense?

    You're not pointing out anything.

    The fixed mathematical odds of a single coin flip don't change, the probability does.

    Flipping a coin is ALWAYS 50/50.

    If you want to take the stance that the probability of 5 Heads coming up in a row and 15 coming up in a row - are somehow the same, that's fine.

    It's just it's a nonsensical stance, that's all.


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    #128
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    The fixed mathematical odds of a single coin flip don't change, the probability does.

    What does probability mean?


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    #129
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,031 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    Even though instinctively I'd agree with Pete and I'd probably be backing red if black had come up 5 times in a row, when you think about it, it's exactly the same, eg. HHHHHHH has exactly the same odds of coming up as HHHHHHT, so it shouldn't really influence your decision.


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    #130
    OutlawPete
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    phantom_lord wrote: »
    What does probability mean?

    Read Games, Gods and Gambling.

    A classic.


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    #131
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    Read Games, Gods and Gambling.

    can you not just tell me :confused:

    also is the "probability" of HHHHHHT different to HHHHHHH?


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    #132
    OutlawPete
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    phantom_lord wrote: »
    can you not just tell me :confused:

    I think it is very obvious what I mean when I say 'chance' and 'probability'.

    I have given many examples at this stage.

    Do you think that there is a roulette table in the world that has hit Black two hundred times in a row?

    If not, why not?
    phantom_lord wrote: »
    ..also is the "probability" of HHHHHHT different to HHHHHHH?

    To close to call.


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    #133
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    I think it is very obvious what I mean when I say 'chance' and 'probability'.

    Not when you say things like:
    The odds of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row are the same, the probability is not.

    OutlawPete wrote: »
    To close to call.

    lolz. but they are different?


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    #134
    OutlawPete
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    phantom_lord wrote: »
    lolz. but they are different?

    Of course they are different, extremely.

    Are you really comparing one coin coming up Tails, after a sequence of coming up Heads six times - to the same six numbers in the lottery coming out two weeks in a row??

    :p

    Please.


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    #135
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    Of course they are different, extremely.

    Are you really comparing one coin coming up Tails, after a sequence of coming up Heads six times - to the same six numbers in the lottery coming out two weeks in a row??

    :p

    Please.

    nah i was comparing HHHHHHT to HHHHHHH?


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    #136
    OutlawPete
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    phantom_lord wrote: »
    nah i was comparing HHHHHHT to HHHHHHH?

    Yes and you quoted me referring to the lotto numbers and said:
    phantom_lord wrote: »
    lolz. but they are different?

    You're waffling now, good luck.


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    #137
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    I was replying to two different points. Sorry if you couldn't grasp that.
    OutlawPete wrote: »
    You're waffling now, good luck.


    lolz.


    just one last question before you go. if we repainted the lotto balls so they're all randomised again would that reset the probability and make last weeks numbers just as likely? or how does that work? do they still have a memory? or is it the actual digit themselves that matter?


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    #138
    OutlawPete
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    phantom_lord wrote: »
    I was replying to two different points. Sorry if you couldn't grasp that.

    You weren't.

    You were comparing me saying that the probability HHHHHHT to HHHHHHH was too close to call and my also saying, that the probability of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row wasn't.

    When I laughed at that, you then say you were just comparing HHHHHHT to HHHHHHH.

    Laughable again.
    phantom_lord wrote: »
    .. just one last question before you go. if we repainted the lotto balls so they're all randomised again would that reset the probability and make last weeks numbers just as likely? or how does that work? do they still have a memory? or is it the actual digit themselves that matter?

    You are building up an argument and implying it is one I subscribe too, just so you can knock it down.

    No roulette table, no lottery machine and no coin has a memory and suggesting that I think it does, just shows that you fail to grasp the point.

    I see you conveniently never answered my question, I'll repeat it:

    Do you think that there is a roulette table in the world that has hit a sequence of one hundred or more Blacks or Reds in a row?

    If not, why not?


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    #139
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    I actually thought you were trolling up until a few posts ago, but you actually genuinely believe in this :confused:
    OutlawPete wrote: »
    You weren't.

    You were comparing me saying that the probability HHHHHHT to HHHHHHH was too close to call and my also saying, that the probability of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row wasn't.

    When I laughed at that, you then say you were just comparing HHHHHHT to HHHHHHH.

    Laughable again.

    Pretty laughable that either you're really delusional or you lack reading comprehension skills imo. I was laughing at the fact you think that the probability of HHHHHHT was different to HHHHHHH.

    I was also pointing out I've no idea what you mean by probability because it's completely different to everyone elses!

    OutlawPete wrote: »
    No roulette table, no lottery machine and no coin has a memory and suggesting that I think it does, just shows that you fail to grasp the point.

    You're point is after a certain amount of heads come up tails is more likely to come up? Even though that's totally illogical?


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    I see you conveniently never answered my question, I'll repeat it:

    Do you think that there is a roulette table in the world that has hit a sequence of one hundred or more Blacks or Reds in a row?

    If not, why not?

    I've no idea if it has. At 1/2^100 it's improbable but not impossible. But even if it did happen the probability of black or red for the next spin would be exactly the same as any point along that sequence.

    Now I've answered your question, could you please tell me what you mean by probability?


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    #140
    OutlawPete
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    phantom_lord wrote: »
    I actually thought you were trolling up until a few posts ago, but you actually genuinely believe in this :confused:

    Yeah, I signed up five years ago just so I could troll this thread.
    phantom_lord wrote: »
    Pretty laughable that either you're really delusional or you lack reading comprehension skills imo. I was laughing at the fact you think that the probability of HHHHHHT was different to HHHHHHH.

    I NEVER said it was "different", it is your "comprehension skills" that ain't up too much.

    I said it was "too close to call".

    You then quoted that answer and included my comments re: Lottery numbers, so you were suggesting that the two answers contradicted each other, they didn't.
    phantom_lord wrote: »
    You're point is after a certain amount of heads come up tails is more likely to come up?

    It's is inevitable that Tails will come up eventually and the more time that passes.
    phantom_lord wrote: »
    Even though that's totally illogical?

    To you it is.
    phantom_lord wrote: »
    I've no idea if it has. At 1/2^100 it's improbable but not impossible.

    Not impossible? :p

    Who said it was?

    Mathematically, when someone flips a coin - there is no guarantee which way it will land, right? So, mathematically there is also no guarantee that it will ever land either tails or heads.

    It is however, IMPROBABLE!!

    It's not impossible that you will never win another hand of Poker, but you still play it.


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    #141
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    I'll write two separate posts so as not to confuse you.
    I said it was "too close to call".

    What does that mean exactly? Are you saying they're not the same? If so why?


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    #142
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    It's is inevitable that Tails will come up eventually and the more time that passes.

    My coin has come up heads ten times in a row. In percentage terms how likely is tails to come up on the next toss?


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    #143
    OutlawPete
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    phantom_lord wrote: »
    I'll write two separate posts so as not to confuse you.

    Why are you being so condescending exactly?
    phantom_lord wrote: »
    What does that mean exactly? Are you saying they're not the same? If so why?

    It means it is too close to call.

    If I was with someone and they flipped a coin and it landed six times 'Heads up' - I would think it too close to call as to which way it was going to go and would not have a 'single' bet on it.

    I would however use progressive betting there for sure.
    phantom_lord wrote: »
    My coin has come up heads ten times in a row. In percentage terms how likely is tails to come up on the next toss?

    50%.


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    #144
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    Why are you being so condescending exactly?

    I was just trying to be helpful.
    OutlawPete wrote: »
    50%.

    So how is HHHHHHHHHHT not exactly the same as HHHHHHHHHHH?


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    #145
    OutlawPete
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    phantom_lord wrote: »
    I was just trying to be helpful.

    No, you were being condescending by suggesting that I would be confused by two questions within the one post.
    phantom_lord wrote: »
    So how is HHHHHHHHHHT not exactly the same as HHHHHHHHHHH?

    The "same" in what way?

    I have said now many many many times that the "odds" of a coin landing Tails or Heads is ALWAYS 50/50, I am not going to keep repeating this.

    It's the probability that the outcome will eventually go Tails after a long sequence of Heads that is the position I am taking.

    Mathematics tells us that it is not impossible for a coin to infinitely land heads up, observation tells us otherwise.


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    #146
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    No, you were being condescending by suggesting that I would be confused by two questions within the one post.

    Just didn't want it to happen a second time.
    OutlawPete wrote: »
    The "same" in what way?

    I have said now many many many times that the "odds" of a coin landing Tails or Heads is ALWAYS 50/50, I am not going to keep repeating this.

    It's the that the outcome will eventually go Tails after a long sequence of Heads that is the position I am taking.

    Mathematics tells us that it is not impossible for a coin to infinitely land heads up, observation tells us otherwise.

    Kinda bored now so I think I'm done. I just find it strange that you understand that each toss if 50/50 yet you seem to have created a new meaning for probability in your head where it's not the same as odds and instead after a certain sequence certain things while still being 50/50 are more likely.
    The odds of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row are the same, the probability is not.

    I mean, wtf does this mean.


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    #147
    Pherekydes
    Registered Users Posts: 16,156 ✭✭✭✭Pherekydes


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    The odds of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row are the same, the probability is not.

    Do you realise that you can calculate odds from probabilities and vice versa?

    So if the odds are the same then it follows that the probability is also the same.


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    #148
    OutlawPete
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    phantom_lord wrote: »
    Just didn't want it to happen a second time.

    You thought it happened, it didn't - as I showed.

    Which you confirmed with you reply, so going back and suggesting the same again, is amusing.
    phantom_lord wrote: »
    I just find it strange that you understand that each toss if 50/50 yet you seem to have created a new meaning for probability in your head where it's not the same as odds and instead after a certain sequence certain things while still being 50/50 are more likely.

    No, I haven't changed any meaning.

    We are dealing with terms here that are objective.

    Casinos will give Odds on events that are not the true 'odds' at all for instance.

    When it comes to probability, I am refering to it as such, because they are events which are improbable based on human observation - so a very apt word as it goes.
    phantom_lord wrote: »
    I mean, wtf does this mean.

    It means that it is highly improbable that the same six numbers will come out in the Lottery, two weeks running - yet the mathematical odds of it happening are the same.

    Just as it is highly improbable that a coin will land 'Heads Up' twenty times in a row, yet the odds of it happening are just the same as any other random sequence.


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    #149
    OutlawPete
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    Pherekydes wrote: »
    Do you realise that you can calculate odds from probabilities and vice versa?

    Yes, but we are talking about specific situations where that is not done.

    Coin tossing and Roulette being used as examples.

    Card counting is an effort at working out 'true odds' based on probability - in a situation where 'fixed odds' are only available.


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    #150
    gondorff
    Closed Accounts Posts: 388 ✭✭gondorff


    gondorff wrote: »
    Any amount of persuasive discussion will not convince you.

    1236166573_steven_seagal_shooting_kids.gif


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    #151
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,362 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Out of interest if you tossed a coin 10000 times, what would you guys expect the longest successive sequence of Heads or Tails to be?

    Gut instinct guess?
    I'll sim it and report back in 20 mins.


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