Betting Systems?

elspecia

Hey all I've been doing a little reading on betting systems and probability.

And I've come across one that states backing an "Evens" team until they win will result in profit. The basics of the system says that you keep doubling your bet until you win.

So for example

You back a team to win @ evens, with a €1 bet.

If the team wins, you win €1 and get your €1 stake back thus your up €1

But you back a team to win @ evens, €1, and they lose, you are now down €1.

So now back another team @ evens with a €2 bet.

If they win you get you €2 stake back, €2 winnings, thus your up €1

Am I the only one who doesn't see any major fault. I know if your teams lose 7 in a row you will have to pay a lot of money to continue your bet, but if you choose to bet smaller stakes it reduces the risk by a big way.

Cavehill Red

Google 'Martingale system' to understand why it doesn't work.

starbelgrade

You're not going to get rich fast with €1 bets.

thesandeman

LOLZZZ






sorry but just lolz.

Tubberadora

It can only work with unlimited money, and if the bookie has no max bet or max payout.

elspecia

starbelgrade wrote: »

You're not going to get rich fast with €1 bets.

But if you invested €20 on the first bet, or if you did it on roulette

If you did it on roulette would it not mean the speed at which you play and win\lose would be faster.

€1 bets on roulette, you could make at least €10 an hour if you had sufficient funds in you account

SugarHigh

OP whats more likely, you have come across a system to fool a multi-billion euro industry or you have come across just another flawed betting system?

If someone does come up with an effective betting system why would they tell you?

Dravokivich

elspecia wrote: »

But if you invested €20 on the first bet, or if you did it on roulette

If you did it on roulette would it not mean the speed at which you play and win\lose would be faster.

€1 bets on roulette, you could make at least €10 an hour if you had sufficient funds in you account

er... roulette has the worst odds for winning. Blackjack has a better chance of paying out, but you really need to know how to play it.

There is no such thing as a perfect betting system and betting should only be done with money you can afford to lose....

AnonoBoy

I got a betting system that always works:

1. Set up a Bookie's
2. Profit.

Works every time baby.


Sincerely,

Paddy Power.

High energy

elspecia wrote: »

Hey all I've been doing a little reading on betting systems and probability.

And I've come across one that states backing an "Evens" team until they win will result in profit. The basics of the system says that you keep doubling your bet until you win.

So for example

You back a team to win @ evens, with a €1 bet.

If the team wins, you win €1 and get your €1 stake back thus your up €1

But you back a team to win @ evens, €1, and they lose, you are now down €1.

So now back another team @ evens with a €2 bet.

If they win you get you €2 stake back, €2 winnings, thus your up €1

Am I the only one who doesn't see any major fault. I know if your teams lose 7 in a row you will have to pay a lot of money to continue your bet, but if you choose to bet smaller stakes it reduces the risk by a big way.

My god, I think you've uncovered something big here!

chin_grin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebacoqX-I6k

elspecia

SugarHigh wrote: »

OP whats more likely, you have come across a system to fool a multi-billion euro industry or you have come across just another flawed betting system?

If someone does come up with an effective betting system why would they tell you?

Well what I've read isn't exactly what i've posted just something similar, I think the alteration I made seem to make it work a little better, in terms of using it on roulette.

The big problem with using it on roulette is, if it gets past the 8th spin your putting a lot of money on and potentially emptying your cash reserves

P.S with regards to betting on roulette you back red or black, not numbers

CrazyRabbit

Novelty bets are the way to go.

I always make money from X-Factor, Pop Idol, Britains Got Talent etc. With a little research, it's possible to determine the winner with considerable accuracy. If you do it quickly enough/well enough, you can get in before the bookies start reducing the odds as the finalists become more obvious.

In the last few years, I've made approx €900 in total from this...most of that when Diversity beat Subo. I'm getting more confident each year, and am increasing the size of my bets. I stand to make just over €240 on X-Factor this year.

elspecia

High energy wrote: »

My god, I think you've uncovered something big here!

By any change is there a hint of sarcasm in that?

DJKendo

[ ] Op is a degenerate gambler

[x] Op has no clue about betting

ArmaniJeanss

The very first reply in the thread, telling you to look up The Martingale System for an explanation of what your scheme is and why it is doomed to failure. That is all you need to do.

AnonoBoy

elspecia wrote: »

Well what I've read isn't exactly what i've posted just something similar, I think the alteration I made seem to make it work a little better, in terms of using it on roulette.

The big problem with using it on roulette is, if it gets past the 8th spin your putting a lot of money on and potentially emptying your cash reserves

P.S with regards to betting on roulette you back red or black, not numbers

No I'd say it's exactly the same. The only difference is in your head.

But feel free to go out there and try this system and report back to us with your progress!

elspecia

DJKendo wrote: »

[ ] Op is a degenerate gambler

[x] Op has no clue about betting

I think harsh since I've figured it works better on roulette betting on colour outcome, it's not going to result in millions but if you have enough money in you cash reserves you can win money.

wingsof daun

CANNOT work! Most of the time, an evens shot in a bookies has under a 50% chance of winning, so you are going to end up having a lot more losers than winners after a while. After a while, a number of these 1/1 shots will get beat in a row, and eventually, you will not have enough money to double your stake, or else you will have to risk a huge amount.

blogga

Best betting system is to send your money direct to Paddy Power. Just donate it. You don't have to wait around to lose it. Think of all the time you save and the tension you avoid.

Mr Benevolent

Don't go there OP. I've tried loads and every single one was going to be the one that made me rich. None of them did, and I cut my losses before they got too big. Believe me, you're no different. People have had the same thought for thousands of years.

elspecia

AnonoBoy wrote: »

No I'd say it's exactly the same. The only difference is in your head.

But feel free to go out there and try this system and report back to us with your progress!

I've gotten my brother to try it on Ladbrokes free play and so far his up 5 play money after 2 minutes so it seems to work but then again if I were to start this I for sure wouldn't have €200 in my account unlike his 200 play money

orourkeda

The only sure fire way to win at gambling in the long term is to become more knowledgable and luckier than the person taking your bets.

There is no dream system and there are so many facets to successful gambling that there is little surprise that roughly only 2% of gamblers win in the long term

SugarHigh

CrazyRabbit wrote: »

Novelty bets are the way to go.

I always make money from X-Factor, Pop Idol, Britains Got Talent etc. With a little research, it's possible to determine the winner with considerable accuracy. If you do it quickly enough/well enough, you can get in before the bookies start reducing the odds as the finalists become more obvious.

In the last few years, I've made approx €900 in total from this...most of that when Diversity beat Subo. I'm getting more confident each year, and am increasing the size of my bets. I stand to make just over €240 on X-Factor this year.

Another easy thing that is easy to predict is what christmas toy will be big this christmas. The Kinect is sold in shops at $150 but is now sold out and on ebay for $350.

Easy money if you can get to enough shops in time.

Cavehill Red

orourkeda wrote: »

The only sure fire way to win at gambling in the long term is to become more knowledgable and luckier than the person taking your bets.

There is no dream system and there are so many facets to successful gambling that there is little surprise that roughly only 2% of gamblers win in the long term

And crucially, they quickly get their accounts limited by bookies, or are blacklisted entirely, and end up having to place bets by proxies, if they can bet at all.

elspecia

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

The very first reply in the thread, telling you to look up The Martingale System for an explanation of what your scheme is and why it is doomed to failure. That is all you need to do.

Yeah I've just finished reading it there myself, especially the roulette section and now I understand how it works, or in fact how it doesn't work ha ha

But if you had €10,000 to blow it might just work but then again that would only work if the online casinos didn't have limits

Dravokivich

elspecia wrote: »

I've gotten my brother to try it on Ladbrokes free play and so far his up 5 play money after 2 minutes so it seems to work but then again if I were to start this I for sure wouldn't have €200 in my account unlike his 200 play money

remember you can reset play money after losing it without costing you anything...

also red / black on roulette...

50/50 does not mean it's always going to be 1 or the other after each spin...

Trust me.. I've seen nutbugs lose thousands in casino's within 15 minutes. Roulette should not be on your mind at all if you want to try and profit from betting. There is no system to a random spin.

Don't do online casino's either...

elspecia

Cavehill Red wrote: »

And crucially, they quickly get their accounts limited by bookies, or are blacklisted entirely, and end up having to place bets by proxies, if they can bet at all.

Yeah isn't that incredibly unfair that bookies are able to do that, stop people who happen to have beaten them at there own game:mad:

orourkeda

wingsof daun wrote: »

CANNOT work! Most of the time, an evens shot in a bookies has under a 50% chance of winning, so you are going to end up having a lot more losers than winners after a while. After a while, a number of these 1/1 shots will get beat in a row, and eventually, you will not have enough money to double your stake, or else you will have to risk a huge amount.

Thats true. The odds are calculated in such a fashion as to either guarantee a profit for the bookie or to help minimise their losses in a sticky situation.

There are very few bets that are exactly 50\50. However, if you take a situation where this arises, instead of offering the true odds (i.e evens on both possible outcomes) you will find that they will offer something like 20\21 or 10\11 on both parties so that can guarantee themselves a percentage profit provided that all bets are spread pretty evenly on both outcomes.

Bykobap

Draws are priced at 2/1 at worst. Keep chasing that if you can. Simple, double up your previous losing stake and keep at it.
1. e10... no draw
2. e20... no draw
3. e40... no draw
4. e80... no draw
5. e160... no draw
6. e320... no draw
7. e640 and team finally draws @ 2/1 = 1920
10+20+40+80+160+320+640=1270
1920-1270= e650 profit and nobody to talk to.

Tubberadora

my local casino has an outside min bet min of 5 quid and max of 50. So basically lose 4 in a row using this system and you are down 75 and can't get it back with one spin

AnonoBoy

elspecia wrote: »

I've gotten my brother to try it on Ladbrokes free play and so far his up 5 play money after 2 minutes so it seems to work but then again if I were to start this I for sure wouldn't have €200 in my account unlike his 200 play money

Oh well I'm all turned around on the issue so.

If your brother has won 5 play euro after 2 whole minutes then surely the entire system is fool proof!

Quick! Let me get my life savings out from under the mattress and stick it all into your guaranteed 'no-way-this-can-ever-lose-for-me-cause-I've-figured-out-something-that-nobody-else-ever-has-for-some-reason-even-though-many-people-have-tried-and-there's-plenty-of-evidence-pointing-out-the-flaws-in-my-maths-and-my-logic' system.

We're in the money!
We're in the money!
We got a lot of what it takes to get along!

orourkeda

Cavehill Red wrote: »

And crucially, they quickly get their accounts limited by bookies, or are blacklisted entirely, and end up having to place bets by proxies, if they can bet at all.

Very true. Bookies are very reluctant to engage in a game of cat and mouse with a person who has both the means and the knowledge to beat them at their own game.

However, some bookies are prepared to accept the big gambles but only in limited circumstances which usually result in large bets having to be shared around.

orourkeda

Tubberadora wrote: »

my local casino has an outside min bet min of 5 quid and max of 50. So basically lose 4 in a row using this system and you are down 75 and can't get it back with one spin

The opposite is just as true.

These limits help restrict their losses in the event of someone going on a roll.

Cavehill Red

orourkeda wrote: »

Very true. Bookies are very reluctant to engage in a game of cat and mouse with a person who has both the means and the knowledge to beat them at their own game.

It used to be they would be happy to sustain a small number of canny gamblers because that indicated where they should shorten their odds. But then the internet came along, and now the bookies all share odds via software that even the public can see.

Nowadays, that tolerated 2% of winners is an endangered species. Even as the bookies seek to expand the gambling industry, they are seeking to wipe out that 2%.

Hank Scorpio

Why dont you learn to play poker if your interesting in odds/gambling op?

butter13222

nuxxx wrote: »

Why dont you learn to play poker if your interesting in odds/gambling op?

id agree with this

orourkeda

nuxxx wrote: »

Why dont you learn to play poker if your interesting in odds/gambling op?

To win long term at poker you have to either play better than your opponents over a prolonged period or play against opponents that are less skilled.

Like every other form of gambling luck levels out.

If all poker players played to the exact same standard there would be no profit to be had.

orourkeda

Cavehill Red wrote: »

It used to be they would be happy to sustain a small number of canny gamblers because that indicated where they should shorten their odds. But then the internet came along, and now the bookies all share odds via software that even the public can see.

Nowadays, that tolerated 2% of winners is an endangered species. Even as the bookies seek to expand the gambling industry, they are seeking to wipe out that 2%.

The good bookies always have the luxury of the mug punter picking up the tab for them.

elspecia

AnonoBoy wrote: »

Oh well I'm all turned around on the issue so.

If your brother has won 5 play euro after 2 whole minutes then surely the entire system is fool proof!

Quick! Let me get my life savings out from under the mattress and stick it all into your guaranteed 'no-way-this-can-ever-lose-for-me-cause-I've-figured-out-something-that-nobody-else-ever-has-for-some-reason-even-though-many-people-have-tried-and-there's-plenty-of-evidence-pointing-out-the-flaws-in-my-maths-and-my-logic' system.

We're in the money!
We're in the money!
We got a lot of what it takes to get along!

I've already acknowledged that the system can't work as bookies impose limits, also I've stated that it would be unlikely that you would invest enough money into your account for it work.

I've fully read up on Martingale betting system and now know that it won't actually work, if you read my previous posts you can see that I've been coming around to the fact that it won't work.

Captain Darling

Hey OP, i can pass you on the details of a Nigerian Prince who can sort you out with a few quid. Money has to change hands first, but dont mind that, its only the precursor to making MASSIVE money.

Emall me at: oneborneveryminute@gmail.com

Sticky_Fingers

orourkeda wrote: »

To win long term at poker you have to either play better than your opponents over a prolonged period or play against opponents that are less skilled.

Like every other form of gambling luck levels out.

Poker is the way to go, play it right and make the right decisions and you basically become the bookie, its amazing how weak some of the opposition is at the lower levels.

AnonoBoy

orourkeda wrote: »

To win long term at poker you have to either play better than your opponents over a prolonged period or play against opponents that are less skilled.

Like every other form of gambling luck levels out.

If all poker players played to the exact same standard there would be no profit to be had.

More skill involved in poker than the sh*te systems the OP is endorsing though.

elspecia

nuxxx wrote: »

Why dont you learn to play poker if your interesting in odds/gambling op?

Don't have enough patience to play it long enough to be honest with you, also I've been known to go on the tilt on many occasions in the past:(

I had an account before where I was up €12 after a week and I was playing on .02/.01 games but then went up to .1/.05 and lost my entire accord in three hands as I was having a bad day

elspecia

AnonoBoy wrote: »

More skill involved in poker than the sh*te systems the OP is endorsing though.

I'm not endorsing it, I read about something similar and posted it hear to get the views from people who would have better knowledge that I.

orourkeda

AnonoBoy wrote: »

More skill involved in poker than the sh*te systems the OP is endorsing though.

There is skill involved.

The problem is that if you are playing a better player you will lose in the long term.

Cavehill Red

orourkeda wrote: »

The good bookies always have the luxury of the mug punter picking up the tab for them.

They always did. The problem nowadays is the difficulty of getting to place a bet if you're not a mug. I've had three accounts limited this year alone. Increasingly, I think smart punters will move to betting exchanges, and that in turn will make getting decent bets there difficult once the exchanges get a reputation (as some poker sites have) for being shark infested waters.

Juwwi

OP you should write a book on how to beat the bookies.:D

Captain Darling

elspecia wrote: »

Don't have enough patience to play it long enough to be honest with you, also I've been known to go on the tilt on many occasions in the past:(

I had an account before where I was up €12 after a week and I was playing on .02/.01 games but then went up to .1/.05 and lost my entire accord in three hands as I was having a bad day

Can i interest you in a triangular scheme? Minimum investment, guaranteed return. Its a licence to print money. It has turned my life around.

Honest.

orourkeda

Sticky_Fingers wrote: »

Poker is the way to go, play it right and make the right decisions and you basically become the bookie, its amazing how weak some of the opposition is at the lower levels.

Again, you will make a profit if you are the better player. Then of course we have the dreaded suck out. I've gone months on end where I've played solid poker at low levels and couldnt win a hand to save my life.

Long term profit relies on a greater skill level over the long term at the levels at which you choose to play.

Sticky_Fingers

elspecia wrote: »

Don't have enough patience to play it long enough to be honest with you, also I've been known to go on the tilt on many occasions in the past:(

I had an account before where I was up €12 after a week and I was playing on .02/.01 games but then went up to .1/.05 and lost my entire accord in three hands as I was having a bad day

You are not going to make any money at those limits, plus that is where the manics and fish reside, lots of variance. You also need at least 30 time the buy in to have any chance of insulating yourself against going busto (obviously only applies if you are a winning player).
My advice, buy a good book, learn the ins and outs and try at a higher level ($0.5/$1).
Check out the poker forum, some great info there