The game is up

th3 s1aught3r

With the bond yields at record highs today, despite the proposed cuts, if the government does not tear up the Croke Park agreement that ring fences the public sector from pay cuts, the IMF will be here very soon imo.
I dont think think we can deal with the unions any longer. They are still arguing about people losing their "bank time" to collect cheques ffs :mad:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1103/ntma-business.html

The only hope now is if the FF led government falls soon and a new govt takes the necessessary steps

allanb49

Waits for biggins.

poodles

Any savings over the next 4 years will be wiped out by borrowing from the markets at 7.5%

flyton5

Because a lot of public sector employees aren't already paying enough in levys on top of tax. Friend of mine worked 80 hours overtime in one roster and 20 hours in the next roster. Difference in money after tax and income levys for working the extra 60hours was about e120.


Get in and restructure the HSE. Worked in a hospital for a while and the amount of clerical staff being paid to sit on their holes is unbelievable. Bank holiday pay was triple time which for entry level pay grade(me) was €46 an hour. Crazy...

General Zod

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_v468ptuXw

senordingdong

I'll bet Lenihan and Cowen are fighting IMF involvment so much because it will un-earth further scandlas that we all don't knwo about yet.

th3 s1aught3r

senordingdong wrote: »

I'll bet Lenihan and Cowen are fighting IMF involvment so much because it will un-earth further scandlas that we all don't knwo about yet.

And it would be the end of the FF mafia for a generation

Riamfada

Heard from a mate who works in Anglo. They are expecting the IMF sooner rather than later.

laugh

We are not looking for any money from them until next year so this rate doesn't mean much at the moment?

SEPT 23 1989

laugh wrote: »

We are not looking for any money from them until next year so this rate doesn't mean much at the moment?

It will probably be higher by then

big_show

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

The only hope now is if the FF led government falls soon and a new govt takes the necessessary steps

What new government? all the opposition are hopeless!

Someone should set up a Boards party...

laugh

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

It will probably be higher by then

Or maybe not, there are plenty of actual sticks to beat the government with.

senordingdong

big_show wrote: »

What new government? all the opposition are hopeless!

Someone should set up a Boards party...

Because the majority of Boards users aren't useless?

Sea Sharp

We have another 4 months or so.

Dj Stiggie

I lost The Game when I read the thread title

Uriel.

Look, the rate will only matter next March / April.

In the mean time, the Government are at the last chance saloon. International financial confidence in Ireland hinges on the budget. The cuts have to be significant enough to instil European and Global confidence in Ireland while at the same time be balance enough that we don't spiral into depression as money dries up almost completely.

Do the Government have what it takes? So far they haven't shown to have. I can't see this time around being much different.

poodles

IMF will be coming in.

This budget will be the last throw of the dice for the Government and the country.

When the markets don't react positively to the upcoming budget measures then the game really is up.

It makes no sense to borrow at 7.5% + when there is a pot of money available to us at 5% - sure Ireland will lose its sovereignty but it won't be such a bad thing.

The Croke Park deal will be ripped up for a start.

LuckyLloyd

The current bond rates are not immediately relevant as we have withdrawn from further finance procurement until after Christmas.

The budget falls between now and then, so there is an opportunity to turn the current International perception (i.e. CDS spreads) of our medium to long term future around.

I expect an IMF bailout in March of next year, but it won't happen until then and there are still moves to be made by the Government before we get to that point.

th3 s1aught3r

Grimes wrote: »

Heard from a mate who works in Anglo. They are expecting the IMF sooner rather than later.

Anglo is first stop on the tour

hal9000

Oh how the chancer nation has fallen!

Mr Benevolent

poodles wrote: »

IMF will be coming in.

This budget will be the last throw of the dice for the Government and the country.

When the markets don't react positively to the upcoming budget measures then the game really is up.

It makes no sense to borrow at 7.5% + when there is a pot of money available to us at 5% - sure Ireland will lose its sovereignty but it won't be such a bad thing.

No, the EFSF will be coming in. The IMF won't be allowed into an EU country as it will internationally embarrass the whole union. The EFSF will be less brutal, but what will they be able to do after a 7b budget? The Euro is going to be ruined though, and chances are a number of countries will revert to their old currencies.

Interesting times ahead, but Ireland is screwed for the next couple of years. Thank the gods I got rid of all my debt.

curlzy

big_show wrote: »

What new government? all the opposition are hopeless!

Someone should set up a Boards party...

:rolleyes: More like a nazi party. According to the majority of threads on this forum we should have capital punishment, entirely scrap the public/civil service, get rid of free education and all social welfare recipients are junkies that can't mind their kids. Honesly a "boards party" would be much worse than FF ever could be.

senordingdong

curlzy wrote: »

:rolleyes: More like a nazi party. According to the majority of threads on this forum we should have capital punishment, entirely scrap the public/civil service, get rid of free education and all social welfare recipients are junkies that can't mind their kids. Honesly a "boards party" would be much worse than FF ever could be.

Atleast they would get **** done.

topper75

You are probably right Confab - but they may go further to avoid embarrassment and protect the euro. The ECB may do some sort of under the table deal and not publicise the assistance.

I don't think they will let the euro fall without a serious fight. The european project politically would be in tatters if that happened.

senordingdong

Confab wrote: »

and chances are a number of countries will revert to their old currencies.

Is that even possible anymore?

poodles

Confab - after a 7 billion budget they could go after the big hole that isn't going to be touched due to the croke park agreement and that's PS wages

curlzy

curlzy wrote: »

:rolleyes: More like a nazi party. According to the majority of threads on this forum we should have capital punishment, entirely scrap the public/civil service, get rid of free education and all social welfare recipients are junkies that can't mind their kids. Honesly a "boards party" would be much worse than FF ever could be.

senordingdong wrote: »

Atleast they would get **** done.

I very much doubt it, you see how long it takes to agree on AH drinks?

eoinbn

Uriel. wrote: »

Look, the rate will only matter next March / April.

In the mean time, the Government are at the last chance saloon. International financial confidence in Ireland hinges on the budget. The cuts have to be significant enough to instil European and Global confidence in Ireland while at the same time be balance enough that we don't spiral into depression as money dries up almost completely.

Do the Government have what it takes? So far they haven't shown to have. I can't see this time around being much different.

Afaik bond rates affect the rate at which banks lend money so if the rates stay high we will be looking at huge jumps in interest rates over the next few months.

The 'game has been up' for quite some time but it seems that most people didn't pay attention during the hour of maths in primary school. The cuts that are required aren't politically possible and if they were somehow implemented it would just lead to mass defaulting on mortgages which would just lead to more money been pumped back into the banks.

DrumSteve

IMF? Arent we in the EU? the IMF wont be coming anywhere near us.

MIRMIR82

Blah blah blah blah:pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

...sick to the teeth of it..STFU:mad:

ILA

Let them come! Can't wait to blow **** up like they're doing in Greece.

mox54

Latvia is practically an eu member and the IMF went in there and was relentless, take a cold look at the figures and you will see that the sums dont add up anymore, our GNP is far too small to sustain out lavish public sector, we're doomed if we do and doomed when we don't, leave the euro and row our own boat!!!, was maggie thatcher right all along!!, up yours delors! as they once said in england

th3 s1aught3r

The only worry is that the IMF is all about cutting the easiest things, so front line services, pensions, and social welfare would be hit
The fat cat civil servents might escape it anyway

scientific1982

The public sector made this country uncompetative.

Sizzler

Grimes wrote: »

Heard from a mate who works in Anglo. They are expecting the IMF sooner rather than later.

Heard from a dog in the street that the IMF are coming

Sizzler

DrumSteve wrote: »

IMF? Arent we in the EU? the IMF wont be coming anywhere near us.

The Germans are the EU, why should they bankroll the clowns running this shíthole? Would the Irish do it for them if the shoe was on the other foot...would we f**k.

Germans will be taking their ball and going home very soon, make no mistake.

delta720

mox54 wrote: »

Latvia is practically an eu member and the IMF went in there and was relentless

Latvia joined the EU in 2004....

Amhran Nua

poodles wrote: »

sure Ireland will lose its sovereignty

No, it won't. For all the chicken littles out there the fact is its been a lot worse in the recent past. You had marginal tax rates closing on 70% in the 1980s. Its not the end of the world, just the end of fianna fail.

JONJO THE MISER

Sizzler wrote: »

Heard from a dog in the street that the IMF are coming

His name wouldn't be rover would it?
Cause a dog called rover told me the exact same thing, i told him we wont roll over.

Scuid Mhór

and there i was thinking th3 s1aught3r was about to expose himself as starbelgrade's alternate account...

Royal Seahawk

Amhran Nua wrote: »

No, it won't. For all the chicken littles out there the fact is its been a lot worse in the recent past. You had marginal tax rates closing on 70% in the 1980s. Its not the end of the world, just the end of fianna fail.

Finally a bit of common sense.

Wertz

Amhran Nua wrote: »

No, it won't. For all the chicken littles out there the fact is its been a lot worse in the recent past. You had marginal tax rates closing on 70% in the 1980s. Its not the end of the world, just the end of fianna fail.

True but we didn't have the levels of personal and mortgage debt in the 80's that we do now...and that's alongside all the sovereign debt as well.
Taxing our way out didn't work last time and is even less likely to this time...

Ulysses Gaze

At least the IMF may actually do something to tackle the problems. Our Patron Saint of Finance, St. Lenihan seems to be taking the Homer Simpson approach to getting out of a problem:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VjPNKc0VsU

th3 s1aught3r

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

and there i was thinking th3 s1aught3r was about to expose himself as starbelgrade's alternate account...

Cheek !
I'll have you know sir that I am my own man

epgc3fyqirnbsx

Sure it'll be grand

ascanbe

The game was up since the govt. forced through the Anglo-bailout/Nama heist; the only hope this country has of a decent future is that a new govt. come to power, disown this thievery and have a swift investigation into the fraud/corruption that has laid this low and swift prosecutions of those found guilty.
Unfortunately, there is no reason to think the opposition have the will or leadership to do this.
As for the public sector, there is serious reform needed; but blaming the public sector for our ills, as some here are trying to do, is frankly preposterous.

bleg

ascanbe wrote: »

The game was up since the govt. forced through the Anglo-bailout/Nama heist; the only hope this country has of a decent future is that a new govt. come to power, disown this thievery and have a swift investigation into the fraud/corruption that has laid this low and swift prosecutions of those found guilty.
Unfortunately, there is no reason to think the opposition have the will or leadership to do this.
As for the public sector, there is serious reform needed; but blaming the public sector for our ills, as some here are trying to do, is frankly preposterous.

No. Sort the country out first, that's the most important thing. Investigate later.

scientific1982

bleg wrote: »

No. Sort the country out first, that's the most important thing. Investigate later.

As much as I hate FF, I agree. We're in way too much trouble at this stage.

bleg

scientific1982 wrote: »

As much as I hate FF, I agree. We're in way too much trouble at this stage.

Well actually I mean election in 3 weeks, sort the country out, then investigate.

ascanbe

bleg wrote: »

No. Sort the country out first, that's the most important thing. Investigate later.

If the country was being sorted out properly, then investigation into the obvious cases of fraud that took place in Anglo-Irish Bank, for instance, would be part of the process.

msg11

So the IMF comes in..

1. FF Thrown out ?
2. IMF in charge
3. IMF start cutting things all over the place
4. IMF get there money back
5. IMF leave ?

Is that the basics here? Can someone explain in short ina list what will happen. Will I lose my job (private sector) multi national company doing well.

Are the IMF a shower of money hungry mother ****ers that don't give a ****, and are like an enraged drugs dealer looking for money that starts to smash your windows in.

Or, actually a nice bunch of people. That just want there money back.

Also, who will be running the country ? FF on the IMF behalf or some new lad from the IMF will be in the dail calling the shots ?