The game is up

th3 s1aught3r · 03-11-2010 2:07pm #1

With the bond yields at record highs today, despite the proposed cuts, if the government does not tear up the Croke Park agreement that ring fences the public sector from pay cuts, the IMF will be here very soon imo.
I dont think think we can deal with the unions any longer. They are still arguing about people losing their "bank time" to collect cheques ffs :mad:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1103/ntma-business.html

The only hope now is if the FF led government falls soon and a new govt takes the necessessary steps

allanb49 · 03-11-2010 2:11pm

Waits for biggins.

poodles · 03-11-2010 2:12pm

Any savings over the next 4 years will be wiped out by borrowing from the markets at 7.5%

flyton5 · 03-11-2010 2:12pm

Because a lot of public sector employees aren't already paying enough in levys on top of tax. Friend of mine worked 80 hours overtime in one roster and 20 hours in the next roster. Difference in money after tax and income levys for working the extra 60hours was about e120.

Get in and restructure the HSE. Worked in a hospital for a while and the amount of clerical staff being paid to sit on their holes is unbelievable. Bank holiday pay was triple time which for entry level pay grade(me) was €46 an hour. Crazy...

General Zod · 03-11-2010 2:14pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_v468ptuXw

senordingdong · 03-11-2010 2:19pm

I'll bet Lenihan and Cowen are fighting IMF involvment so much because it will un-earth further scandlas that we all don't knwo about yet.

th3 s1aught3r · 03-11-2010 2:22pm

senordingdong wrote: »

I'll bet Lenihan and Cowen are fighting IMF involvment so much because it will un-earth further scandlas that we all don't knwo about yet.

And it would be the end of the FF mafia for a generation

Riamfada · 03-11-2010 2:24pm

Heard from a mate who works in Anglo. They are expecting the IMF sooner rather than later.

laugh · 03-11-2010 2:25pm

We are not looking for any money from them until next year so this rate doesn't mean much at the moment?

SEPT 23 1989 · 03-11-2010 2:28pm

laugh wrote: »

We are not looking for any money from them until next year so this rate doesn't mean much at the moment?

It will probably be higher by then

big_show · 03-11-2010 2:29pm

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

The only hope now is if the FF led government falls soon and a new govt takes the necessessary steps

What new government? all the opposition are hopeless!

Someone should set up a Boards party...

laugh · 03-11-2010 2:30pm

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

It will probably be higher by then

Or maybe not, there are plenty of actual sticks to beat the government with.

senordingdong · 03-11-2010 2:31pm

big_show wrote: »

What new government? all the opposition are hopeless!

Someone should set up a Boards party...

Because the majority of Boards users aren't useless?

Sea Sharp · 03-11-2010 2:33pm

We have another 4 months or so.

Dj Stiggie · 03-11-2010 2:34pm

I lost The Game when I read the thread title

Uriel. · 03-11-2010 2:37pm

Look, the rate will only matter next March / April.

In the mean time, the Government are at the last chance saloon. International financial confidence in Ireland hinges on the budget. The cuts have to be significant enough to instil European and Global confidence in Ireland while at the same time be balance enough that we don't spiral into depression as money dries up almost completely.

Do the Government have what it takes? So far they haven't shown to have. I can't see this time around being much different.

poodles · 03-11-2010 2:39pm

IMF will be coming in.

This budget will be the last throw of the dice for the Government and the country.

When the markets don't react positively to the upcoming budget measures then the game really is up.

It makes no sense to borrow at 7.5% + when there is a pot of money available to us at 5% - sure Ireland will lose its sovereignty but it won't be such a bad thing.

The Croke Park deal will be ripped up for a start.

LuckyLloyd · 03-11-2010 2:40pm

The current bond rates are not immediately relevant as we have withdrawn from further finance procurement until after Christmas.

The budget falls between now and then, so there is an opportunity to turn the current International perception (i.e. CDS spreads) of our medium to long term future around.

I expect an IMF bailout in March of next year, but it won't happen until then and there are still moves to be made by the Government before we get to that point.

th3 s1aught3r · 03-11-2010 2:59pm

Grimes wrote: »

Heard from a mate who works in Anglo. They are expecting the IMF sooner rather than later.

Anglo is first stop on the tour

hal9000 · 03-11-2010 3:01pm

Oh how the chancer nation has fallen!

Mr Benevolent · 03-11-2010 3:08pm

poodles wrote: »

IMF will be coming in.

This budget will be the last throw of the dice for the Government and the country.

When the markets don't react positively to the upcoming budget measures then the game really is up.

It makes no sense to borrow at 7.5% + when there is a pot of money available to us at 5% - sure Ireland will lose its sovereignty but it won't be such a bad thing.

No, the EFSF will be coming in. The IMF won't be allowed into an EU country as it will internationally embarrass the whole union. The EFSF will be less brutal, but what will they be able to do after a 7b budget? The Euro is going to be ruined though, and chances are a number of countries will revert to their old currencies.

Interesting times ahead, but Ireland is screwed for the next couple of years. Thank the gods I got rid of all my debt.

curlzy · 03-11-2010 3:19pm

big_show wrote: »

What new government? all the opposition are hopeless!

Someone should set up a Boards party...

:rolleyes: More like a nazi party. According to the majority of threads on this forum we should have capital punishment, entirely scrap the public/civil service, get rid of free education and all social welfare recipients are junkies that can't mind their kids. Honesly a "boards party" would be much worse than FF ever could be.

senordingdong · 03-11-2010 3:21pm

curlzy wrote: »

:rolleyes: More like a nazi party. According to the majority of threads on this forum we should have capital punishment, entirely scrap the public/civil service, get rid of free education and all social welfare recipients are junkies that can't mind their kids. Honesly a "boards party" would be much worse than FF ever could be.

Atleast they would get **** done.

topper75 · 03-11-2010 3:22pm

You are probably right Confab - but they may go further to avoid embarrassment and protect the euro. The ECB may do some sort of under the table deal and not publicise the assistance.

I don't think they will let the euro fall without a serious fight. The european project politically would be in tatters if that happened.

senordingdong · 03-11-2010 3:24pm

Confab wrote: »

and chances are a number of countries will revert to their old currencies.

Is that even possible anymore?

poodles · 03-11-2010 3:24pm

Confab - after a 7 billion budget they could go after the big hole that isn't going to be touched due to the croke park agreement and that's PS wages

curlzy · 03-11-2010 3:25pm

curlzy wrote: »

:rolleyes: More like a nazi party. According to the majority of threads on this forum we should have capital punishment, entirely scrap the public/civil service, get rid of free education and all social welfare recipients are junkies that can't mind their kids. Honesly a "boards party" would be much worse than FF ever could be.

senordingdong wrote: »

Atleast they would get **** done.

I very much doubt it, you see how long it takes to agree on AH drinks?

eoinbn · 03-11-2010 3:35pm

Uriel. wrote: »

Look, the rate will only matter next March / April.

In the mean time, the Government are at the last chance saloon. International financial confidence in Ireland hinges on the budget. The cuts have to be significant enough to instil European and Global confidence in Ireland while at the same time be balance enough that we don't spiral into depression as money dries up almost completely.

Do the Government have what it takes? So far they haven't shown to have. I can't see this time around being much different.

Afaik bond rates affect the rate at which banks lend money so if the rates stay high we will be looking at huge jumps in interest rates over the next few months.

The 'game has been up' for quite some time but it seems that most people didn't pay attention during the hour of maths in primary school. The cuts that are required aren't politically possible and if they were somehow implemented it would just lead to mass defaulting on mortgages which would just lead to more money been pumped back into the banks.