100 Bets to Broke, NH :-) and last of the flat

longshotvalue

The King George Chase Kempton 3:00

This race, although seemingly a one horse race to find the winner in Kauto Star, is very interesting in its other participants, in particular how the young horses compare against some very decent consistent yardsticks in Nacarart, Albertas Run & Madison Du Berlais. I’ll start with the three young contenders.


Long Run’s last 2 runs give the impression he isn’t good enough here, but is still unexposed if those runs weren’t his true ability, but he appears to short at 8.4 to win and 2.26 to place
Riverside Theatre, Really doesn’t look good enough but may well have improved a lot this year and the step up in trip should suit, he could stay onto a place but looks about the right price at 20win 4.1 place.
The Nightingale , Will appreciate the ground and could stay on into a place but 13 to win and 2.96 doesn’t look value on all known form
Now for the more experienced contenders.
Nacarat, doesn’t look good enough and running style leaves him vulnerable to not getting placed. He may well try to cut it out again from the front. Currently 19 win & 2.94 to place, which looks like a place lay to me.
Planet of sound, shouldn’t be good enough really but has a somewhat decent chance of placing, his price looks about right at 21 win 4.4 to place
Forpadydeplasterer, He is unexposed at this trip, but it would be a huge improvement to get involved here and the price looks about right at 25 to win and 3.6 to place
Madison du berlais, Looks underrated again here, but his jumping is key, he may be a very decent in running place bet. He is currently 7.2 to place which looks way to big considering his record at flat tracks. If he jumps the first 2 in decent style 7 to place is going to be massive. He is also 50 to win which is probably worth a small bet.
Albertas run, Would prefer better ground, but looked very good last time and is clearly overpriced at 70 to win and 6.4 to place. This flat track 3 miles could easily suit him, and I would rate him higher than any of the newcomers.
Kauto Star, Really should win with the minimum of fuss, and seems miles clear of these, especially with all conditions to suit.


My Bets will be



1 Point Win 3 Points Place Madison du berlais
1 Point Win 2 Points Place Albertas run
Lanzarote Hurdle Kempton 3:35

Ackertac: Looks an unexposed type that is sure to stay and is in here of a decent looking mark, considering he was going well last time out before he fell 3 out. His low weight here should give him an exceptional chance of placing and looks value at 15 to win and 4.3 to place


1 Point win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue

Love of Tara 2:10 Warick , should love the ground and trip, if he can come back to form here, he has good c&d form and looks a bit of value at 38 win 6.4 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

Numide Fos Las 2:40, going to give him another chance, some day soon he might just come in in one of these handicap hurdles at a decent price. He has been travelling well in his races and just not picking up at the end, but still not been far from placing lately. Soft ground here should help altough he is untried at the distance. His 3rd last race when 2nd in soft looks decent enough and he did stay on at the end, so possibly he can travel well here over the longer distance and not have to find a lot of speed in the end to plug on for a place.

2 pts win 26.0 and 2 Points Place 5.0 (placing 4 on betfair)

keysersoze0330

aidankkk wrote: »

Numide Fos Las 2:40, going to give him another chance, some day soon he might just come in in one of these handicap hurdles at a decent price. He has been travelling well in his races and just not picking up at the end, but still not been far from placing lately. Soft ground here should help altough he is untried at the distance. His 3rd last race when 2nd in soft looks decent enough and he did stay on at the end, so possibly he can travel well here over the longer distance and not have to find a lot of speed in the end to plug on for a place.

2 pts win 26.0 and 2 Points Place 5.0 (placing 4 on betfair)

Was flicking thro this blog and seen this and put my last €4 on the horse each way. Won €72 yahoo. never back horses!

longshotvalue

Thanks feck things are coming together won at 34 on betfair.. Bout time..

Funny had just done out the figures this morning for a shocking 80 point loss after 81 picks, this almost get it all back.....

thesandeman

Nice one Aidan.
Hope the luck is changing.

longshotvalue

Mayden 6:20 Once More Dubai, this one won a few here last year, has been running poor enough in the UK last year, but had a encouraging run last time out and has dropped down the handicap to a decent mark , and there may not be much between a lot of these. He is back to the right trip.

1 Point Win @ 23 2 points Place @ 6.5

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Mayden 6:20 Once More Dubai, this one won a few here last year, has been running poor enough in the UK last year, but had a encouraging run last time out and has dropped down the handicap to a decent mark , and there may not be much between a lot of these. He is back to the right trip.

1 Point Win @ 23 2 points Place @ 6.5

Dam i tough he had it there, just got collered for the win...:(:(

decent place price tough...:)

thesandeman

That will do. Just spotted it on time. Looks like ur finding your mojo again.

longshotvalue

thesandeman wrote: »

That will do. Just spotted it on time. Looks like ur finding your mojo again.

hopfully, might just save this tread if i can pick another shortly..

longshotvalue

Bathwick Scanno, Wolv 6:50 , has a big weight turnaround against a few of these on his last run, and looks to want the extra distance. If the 7lbs claimer can ride at all , he should ahve a chance of placing

1 Point win (30 betfair) 1 Point Palce ( 5)

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Bathwick Scanno, Wolv 6:50 , has a big weight turnaround against a few of these on his last run, and looks to want the extra distance. If the 7lbs claimer can ride at all , he should ahve a chance of placing

1 Point win (30 betfair) 1 Point Palce ( 5)

3rd:)

longshotvalue

victorchandler.com Handicap Chase Ascot 3:30.

Tatenen: He has always looked like a soft ground horse, and tomorrow should be his first run on softer going in a while. He has also come down the handicap considerably and the combination of both could see him in here with a decent chance at a good price. He looks overpriced at 29 win 6.5 place. The trip also may be his ideal and his first run this year was decent over this trip on unsuitable good ground.

1 Point Win 2 Point Place

Bathwick Tyres Handicap Chase Wincanton 2:10

Theatre Dance: Has run well this season without really getting the right ground or trip. 3 miles on soft looks to be ideal for him and he has dropped down the handicap enough to have a decent chance here. His last run was good and he looked to be staying on. Ran well over 3 miles a few times off 7lbs higher 2 years ago, and any recapture of that form could be good enough here.

2 Points Win 9.5

Nulty

Ye done good, kid!

thesandeman

Yep. Youre back just in time for Chelt.

longshotvalue

Right, ive done the spreadsheet and this tread currently stands at.

After 84 Runners + 43.16 less Commission + 31.28 BSP

From low point of -109 2 weeks ago, thanks to Cornas 18.5, Numide 34.0 and Tatenan 32.1 .. + 140 points in the last 2 weeks.. PHEW

Letyourselfgo

aidankkk wrote: »

Right, ive done the spreadsheet and this tread currently stands at.

After 84 Runners + 43.16 less Commission + 31.28 BSP

From low point of -109 2 weeks ago, thanks to Cornas 18.5, Numide 34.0 and Tatenan 32.1 .. + 140 points in the last 2 weeks.. PHEW

Excellent stuff aidankkk, there's a couple of logs I like to read and yours is top of the list, keep up the good work.

jkelly85

Keep up the great stuff

longshotvalue

Saddlers Native, 2:25 Navan, Had a look at his last race, and he ran reasonably well in a similiar race, he is 2 lbs lower here with the addition of a 7lbs claimer. He has good form of much higher in the past, and might just squeek into a place.

1 Point win 1 Point Place Currently 60 win 10 place

longshotvalue

Bally Conn: Hunt 3:45. This one is back down to a decent mark, after poor enough runs last year off to high a mark. The previous year he was really consistant in this type of race, and i liked the look of his return. He travelled well enough and just found nothing in the end probably having done too much early and needing the race. Some kind of return to form here would give hima great chance of placing at least and he looks value at 26 win 5 place.

1 Points win 2 Points Place.

Letyourselfgo

I'm on that also but I'll be having sth on talenti aswell.

longshotvalue

2:40 Limerick, Nipper John, is of his lowest mark with a 7lbs claimer on board, he has better form not that long ago and should have a chance of placing here at a good price.

32 win 6 place

1 Point win 1 point palce

longshotvalue

Mayden 2:35 Carnaby Street: Once half decent horse, who did show something towards the end of last year. His chance of finding improvement with the sun on his back and tried on the new surface look better than the 75 win 15.5 place he is at the moment. He looks to be the first choice of jockey Atjebi, here between the 2 runners. Tiny squeek.

.5 point win .5 point place

Nulty

He needs it soft.

longshotvalue

Nulty wrote: »

He needs it soft.

yeah i say that, but he had some decent form on G-S earlier, he might do something at some stage...

longshotvalue

Connolly's Red Mills Thyestes Handicap Chase 2:55 Gowran

Going with a couple of longshot down the end of the card.

Will Jamie Run: Ive picked him a few times in the last year, but his last run in the Paddy Power was the most encouraging yet, he was travelling well troughout but lost a lot of ground coming into the 3rd last, this time tough he did pick up again after and hopefully is just coming into form in time for this race. He is a total of 7lbs better in here with the addition of the 5lbs claimer who has been on him for most of his good runs last year, so hopefully today is the day he repays my faith. Currently 45 win 7.8 place

1 Point win 2 Points Place

Good Fella: I had a look at last years race for a few clues and he stuck out a bit running on well for 5th, i went to check his price and couldnt believe it when i saw it. He is currently 110 win 10 place on betfair . He hasnt had a run this year but hopefully has been kept with this in mind. On looking at his form he is pretty consistant in decent races, and was fancied for this last year going of at only 10/1. Not much looks to have changed in the last year as it a similiar race and he just looks to big at that price

1 Point win 2 Points Place.

longshotvalue

Gowran 1:15

Rocky Wednesday. This horse was rated as high as anything else in the race on the flat, and his last flat run over 14f on soft, where he was 4th without getting a good run, looks good in the context of this type of race. He looks overpriced at 27 win 6.2 place

1 Point win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue

Long Shot Saturday


Murphy Group Chase 2:00 Cheltenham
Little Josh: Not exactly a long shot but he looks overpriced to me at 9 currently. This race is a step back in class from his other runs this year, and despite the fact that he has gone up 9 lbs from his win over c&d earlier this year in the Paddy Power, he may be able to lead from the front here and stay there in this race as the quality is not as high as his previous c&d runs this year. He looks the most likely winner and a few points to big.
3 Points win @ 9

Rewards4Racing Cleeve Hurdle 3:35 Cheltenahm
Fair Along: Although there are a few far less exposed horses in this race, we can be fairly certain that hell provide a level of performance that is capable of taking this race. His first run this year looked very good, and that type of performance again here will give him a decent chance. Grand Crus could be anything and we’ll have a greater idea after this race where he stands. Currently 17.5 win 4.2 place
1 Point win 2 Points Place

Sky Bet Chase 3:20 Doncaster
Take The Breeze: He is gone up 6lbs for his last very good run against and excellent yardstick in Massinis Maguire, and has a decent 5lb claimer on to offset that today. A similar run again this time will give him a great chance here, and since that was his first run of the year there is a chance of improvement. He looks overpriced at 19 win and 4 place.
2 Point win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue

Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle Cheltenham 3:05

Drivetime: Both this horses 2 runs on the flat for Jim Bolger were impressive, showing plenty of toughness which hopefully transfers well to the jumping game. He beat a few decent NH horses in his first run on the flat and ran well again on his first run over hurdles showing a willingness to get down to it when required. He looks overpriced for an unbeaten horse with very decent flat form. Currently 22 win 4.3 place.

2 point win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue

Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase 1:30 cheltenham

The Giant Bolster: Looked very good on his Chase Debut on good ground , when he quickened up like a good horse. He did jump right on a few occasions which isnt ideal around here, but he ran really well at last years festival behind Peddlers Cross, in 6th in the middle of a lot of very good horses. He fell when going fine at the course in his last run, and im surprised he notone of the Favs for this race. Currently 10.0 on Betfair

3 Pts win Betfair