100 Bets to Broke, NH :-) and last of the flat

longshotvalue

14:50 Haydock 40% Better Off On Betfair SP 'Fixed Brush' Handicap Hurdle
Tasheba: Although this race really seems to revolve around how much the favorite has in hand on the handicapper, I like the look of Tasheba here as he's back down to the mark he finished second in a very good 2m4f Handicap in Ascot last year, with a lot of good yardsticks behind. He has looked like the step up in trip will suit and has had a warm-up run which hopefully put him right for this. Even though he is the second string of the yard according to the betting, I'm not so sure, as David Bass is a very good claimer and the decision to put him on Tasheba is probably more to do with his position near the top of the weights. Currently 29.0 win 4.5 place, and I'm convinced he should be shorter.
2pt win, 2pt place
13:30 Ascot, Ivan The Terrible Mares' Handicap Hurdle
Munlochy Bay: This one ran a very good race on her final run in Cheltenham last year when coming through the field from a long way back in a decent race. Although she has gone up 10lbs for that, she may well have still more to give considering how far back she had to come from in that race, and has put in a decent reappearance this year of that mark when staying on. She is a certainty to stay here and looks decent value with headgear back on and again off a low weight with the same claimer onboard. Currently 14.0 win 3.9 place, with the place price sure to get better as the market matures.
1pt win, 2pt place
14:35 Ascot Coral Hurdle
Ashkazar: Mostly a gut feeling that he could run well here. The trip should suit, and his last run was good considering he had to give Nearby over a stone, for an 8 length beating. Most of the principals haven't run this year and this may be a decent opportunity. Currently 22.0 win 4.4 place.
1pt win, 1pt place
15:10 Ascot Carey Group Handicap Chase
King Edmund: One of my Favorite horses last year looks a bit overpriced here, primarily because of his run last time over C&D. But he sweated up badly beforehand and still ran a very decent race, and has come down 1lb for that run. I'm hoping he'll go of in front and be difficult to catch. Currently 9.6 to win which looks a few points too big here.
2 pts win

longshotvalue

Bit late but.

Ove Cool cookie, might be overpriced for shrewd connections at 44 win 8.5 place in the 1:45 Aintree. He has a bit of class and its possible the Fences might just bring him on a bit..

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

Navan Troytown Chase

Will Jamie Run, looks well overpriced here, as he is a consistant sort who was 6th in the national of a higher mark, and the shorter trip here might suit. 42 win 7.4 place..

1 Point win 2 points place

longshotvalue

Newbury 2:10.

NoStingsAttached, this one just looks to be considerably overpriced at 32 win 7.6 place on betfair, he certainly looked better last time in a decent race, and is now back down to a mark he won last. He looks sure to stay and Good to Soft should be fine. Should go of a good bit shorter.. Has had a bit of a break and has run well twice before after a break..

2 Points win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue

Nerbury 2:10..
Celestial Halo, i was impressed with his jumping last time until he fell, and he is so far clear of the others in this race in term of class i think he is overpriced, i had set evens as a point of having abet but he is now available at 2.44

6 Points win

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Bad record antipost but it impossible to resist..

Hennessy Gold Cup

Madison Du Berlais, is back down to near the mark he won the hennessy of before. Last year he was poor enough but still what he done might be enough here, he has no weight, is going to be one of the few in the handicap and has beaten denman before twice. Of the others in the field there is a lot of unproven horses around the same mark, and he is still a 9yo so may still have some improvement in him.. He has an excellent record in the race having won it and placed, and really should be place here at least.. There are some positive noises from the stable..

3 pts Each Way 16/1

Previously advised running today

longshotvalue

StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle Newbury 12:25


Although Binocular should really take this race, he seems poor value, considering how he ran last year, and his season will surely be set out to have him 100% for March. I'm going to take small stab with Nearby he is in great form at the moment and will have the edge in fitness here, he looks a bit overpriced to win currently 15.0. He is Improving and might not need a lot to give him a hope here considering his main rivals having their first outing.


2 Points win


sportingbet.com Handicap Chase Newbury 3:40

Pocket Aces, looked to be on the way back to decent form last time, and there are a few alarm bells here. He has a 7lbs claimer on for the first time and the ground being on the softer side should help him. He is in here with a very good racing weight and may be ready to do himself justice. He won a novice chase last year very well on soft going and a lot of his races since have been on quicker going which may not suit. Currently 19 win 4.7 place

2 points win 2 points Place

longshotvalue

Scots Dragoon Newbury 12:55. Was well supported last time but fell at first, and that bit of support might just mean a decent chance here also. He has a good record in this type of race, should go on the ground and should stay. Looks value at 17 win 4.4 place, and really shouldnt end up that price.

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

Ballyegan Newbury 1:30, looked a very good staying performance in his last hurdle race, and having won a point the switch to fences can only help, altough he possibly would like further, he has a good 7lbs claimer on and can stay on into a place.. 26 win and 6 place

1 Point win 2 Point Place

longshotvalue

Out of pure Boredom, Waiting for real racing to start again.


Lingfield 2:10 Winning Show looks overpriced , he ran a decent race last time and his place price of 8.2 looks very good value here in this similiar race. He has improved over hurdles recently and if he carried that onto AW he could be a bit of value

1 Point win 2 points place

25 win 8 place

longshotvalue

[FONT=&quot]13:20 Cheltenham [/FONT]Unicoin Homes Relkeel Hurdle
[FONT=&quot]Celestial Halo: [/FONT][FONT=&quot]He is back over hurdles after a couple of fruitless attempts over fences, but he is the highest rated in this race and back at his perfect distance he looks to me to be very hard to beat here, at a good price. His last run over fences looked better in that he stayed on well at the end and really should be fully fit for this. On the terms here in this race any reproduction of his hurdles form could be good enough here. Overpriced at 7.4 currently[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]4pts win [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]13:55 Cheltenham Keith Prowse Hospitality Tingle Creek Chase[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Kalahari King: [/FONT][FONT=&quot]There may be an opertunity here to find out Masterminded, who has proven vunerable in a good percentage of his races the last 2 years. Masterminded really didn’t beat much when winning well on his seasonal debut and doesn’t look value at odds on. Of the others Kalahari king ran a decent race in last years Champion Chase and rates high enough here to suggest that if there is to be a surprise he is the most likely to do it. He will need to improve his jumping but looks overpriced at 12.5 to win.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]2 Points Win[/FONT]

4:30 Cheltenham Vote A.P. Gold Cup

Mad Max : [FONT=&quot]I liked the look of his run in the Paddy Power over C&D last month, and given some improvement for the run here and the extra weight Little Josh has to carry, I’m not sure with I agree with Barry Gerathys choice here, having gone for Dave’s Dream after an easy win in a poorer race of a much lower mark. Mad Max travelled well most of the way in that race, and with the revised terms he looks overpriced at 15.0 to win.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]3 Points Win[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]11:40 Cheltenham Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Grand Lahou[/FONT][FONT=&quot]: This one looks overpriced considering his good run last time out over C&D of the same mark, where he met a blot on the handicap. He is in here with a very low racing weight and must have a great chance of placing at least. Currently 16 win 4.4 place[/FONT]
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[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]2 Points win 3 Points Place[/FONT]

Nulty

I really like Grand Lahou. If I could convince myself I'd back him. Its just such a tough race...How did you get a handle on it?

longshotvalue

Nulty wrote: »

I really like Grand Lahou. If I could convince myself I'd back him. Its just such a tough race...How did you get a handle on it?

I have to admit, im reducing the time im spending on these races and just going with my first opinion in general, too much time hasnt been very successful.. But c&d no weight and taking out the winner of his last race (who was obviously a blot on the handicap) that form is good enough to be taken seriously here at a decent price. Thre were a lot of decent horses behind in that race..

longshotvalue

Fair 1:20, i like the look of Doctor Deejay here ,he whould like the ground and his form last year with pittoni look to have him in here on a decent mark. Stable in cracking form as well.. Overpriced at 23 win and 4.0 to place

1 Point win 2 Point Place

Nulty

Zacharova (Newbury 2.05) ran today and disappoointed again this time with blinkers back on. No apparent excuses though I've yet to watch the race.

Replay

Result

Nulty

Just looks like his jumping is letting him down, stteps over the fences and loses vast amounts of ground at each one. I'm not likeely to touch him til I see much more enthusiasm

longshotvalue

Couldnt Pick my nose at the moment, but im going to give Will Jamie Run, one last chance in the 2:30, he has been running decent without seeing out his races, and having looked at his irish Grand National run again, of 5lbs higher, this trip and ground should suit.. He was very poor last time out but im going to overlook that and hope there can be some kind of form recovery of his low weight and lower.

1 Point win 1 Point Place 130 win 18 place..

longshotvalue

Golden Silver, i have to think he will turn the tables on Big Zeb today, with the softer ground and extra furlong from his last run againt him where he was closing at the finish.. After his last win i decided if it comes up soft in cheltenham he wont be beat in the Champion Chase so hell have to win well today to keep that opinion going.

5 Pts win 3.0 betfair

longshotvalue

Politio, Leop 3:00, ignoring his last run at cheltenham, he look reasonable well treated here, he has the first time 7lbs claimer and no weight, which will help him stay and the stable seems to be possibly getting back to some kind of form..

55 win 8.6 place..


1 Point win 1 Point Place

Newtown90

Couple of hot favourites for todays racing i see...

Anyone want to do the fishes and loaves act and help turn my €11 euro in my betfair account into something bigger

Been looking at Welds horse in the first in Leopardstown and Mullins horse in the big one there!

Can't see fools wildcat running again today....

longshotvalue

Bathwick Tyres Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) Exeter 2:15
Numide: This one should be suited by the soft going and is running here of a decent racing weight for the first time in a while. He has dropped to a mark well below previous victories and his second last run was encouraging in that he travelled well but just didn’t find enough in the finish ( he was lumbered with more weight in soft ground). I’m hoping he may finish better here with less weight and can recapture some of his old form. Currently 25 win 4 place
1 Point Win 1Point Place

Raceodds Handicap Chase (Class 2) Cheltenham 1:30
My Will: One of the more underrated horses with a good few very decent performances over the course. He has dropped over 14lbs from last year and also has a 7lbs claimer on board, which get him in here only carrying 11:03, which should give him a decent chance. He also has an excellent record fresh. Paul Nichols has nothing else in the race and hopefully he is well tuned for this race. Currently 19 win 4.2 Place
1 Point Win 1 Point Place

victorchandler.com Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Cheltenham 2:35
Taranis: His rating in this race of 153 looks to be a bit generous, and considering his course and distance form, it would be no surprise if he won this race with a bit in hand. There are no really classy rivals, and his run in the hennessy was promising considering he probably just didn’t stay. A win here will put him back in the Ryanair Picture, and the trainer was very happy with him before the hennessy, so I’m assuming he is in good health.. Win 8.0
4 Points Win 8.0

Skybet.com Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) Cheltenham 3:10
Gwanako: I’ve tipped him his last 2 runs, and both times he was running well until falling 2 out. He looks to be in decent health, and is running here at least 10lbs below his chase mark, along with the fact that he has a 7lbs claimer on board, giving him a racing weight of only 10:07, which will help to alleviate the doubts about him staying the 3 miles. In this type of race he may be able to cruise for the first 2 miles and hopefully make the weight advantage tell at the end of the race. He is still a young horse and should be well capable of this mark. Currently 36 win 6.4 place
2 Points win 2 Points Place


Tigmi Travel Dipper Novices' Chase (Grade 2) Cheltenham 2:00
Othermix: A very consistent sort who has excellent course form, when 2nd in the jewson last year. There is the addition of blinkers here which hopefully can improve him. He is near the top in the race according to ratings and proven form and although he is facing a strong field of possible improvers he can get placed here at least at a decent price. Currently 22 win 4.2 place
1 Points win 2 Points Place

thesandeman

That would make some Lucky 31 lol.
Happy New Year Aidan and best of luck.

Nulty

Indeed happy new year Aidan

longshotvalue

Cheltenham & Three Counties Race Club Hurdle (Class 2)12:55 Cheltenham

Celestial Halo: Has a turnaround in the weights with both his oponents last time, and given a bit of improvement looks value to overturn both here at what looks an overpriced 4/1. He is better by 8lbs with Karabak and 4 with Any Given Day, and that should be enough to give him an excellent chance.

3 Points Win 4/1 various

longshotvalue

Can't update current prices on phone. ..


32red.com Handicap Chase 14:05 Sandown

Ma Yahab: Ran well last year a number of times and had a very decent run first time out after a long break in similar heavy ground, off a 1lb higher mark. His record fresh is very good and considering his consistent form off this mark or higher last year he looks to have a great chance here. He looks overpriced at 22.0 win and 3.25 place. The place price may improve as the market strengthens.
2pts win, 2pts place
32red Handicap Chase 15:15 Sandown

Cornas: His mark of 148 in this race looks a few pounds on the generous side considering his form last year generally of 2lbs higher - his last run was decent at Cheltenham when perhaps left with too much to do, and he has some good form on soft. He is currently 16.0 win and 4.4 place.
2pts win, 2pts place
Coral Welsh National (Handicap Chase) 13:45 Chepstow

Old Benny: Although he is running here a few pounds out of the handicap, he is well in if he returns to any kind of form. He is a proven stayer and has good form on soft ground. He has had very little racing in the last 2 years and obviously has been difficult to train, but on his reappearance he did give the impression at times that he may hold some of his old ability. He has been placed in this race before and the stable is in good form, so he looks value at 27.0 win and 6.2 place.
1pt win, 2pts place

longshotvalue

14:20 Chepstow, Coral.co.uk Handicap Chase (Class 2


Cheif Yeoman, is interesting here at a big price of a decent mark, after a half decent run over hurdles lately. Long time since chase run. 25 win 7.2 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

14:40 Sandown, 8 Jan 2011


2m 110y



32Red Hurdle (Grade 1 Novices' Hurdle) (Registered As The Tolworth Hurdle)

Red Merlin, he looks overpriced here, as his opening run was eye catching, when really staying on well at the end. . There may not be much between any of these and he is the best value

2 Points win 14.0 Betfair

longshotvalue

Last in every race so far, but just noticed one of good hroses from last year.

15:30 Wincanton, Higos Insurance Services Handicap Chase


Doctor Pat, look sure to like the heavy ground, which he performed well is last year, he has had 2 bad races this year in unsuitable ground and is now down to a decent mark. It wouldnt be much of a surprice if he ran better here and looks value at 29 win 7 place.

2 Points win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue

MCR Hurdle, Leopardstown.


Mosstown, Scanning trough the race, this one stood out at a huge price. He is very unexposed, has some good form in heavy ground, and there is a slight chance he may have been kept with this in mind. I had a look at his last race, and there wasnt a lot of effort in the last furlong or 2, and he looked to have quite a bit more to give. Her has come very good soft ground flat maiden form, and a few decent performance over hurdles last year. Im hoping he is ready to step up here.

1 Point EW.

50/1 EW 5 Places

longshotvalue

13:50 Leopardstown


Jered, looks a bit overpriced at 12.0 on betfair, he didnt run too bad int eh paddy power, and the trip was probably too far, he is back to a more suitable, and has the aid today of AP.

2 Points win 12.0 on betfair