Football Betting Thread

SantryRed

5 pt double on Green Bay and Tennessee to win. Returns 8.10 pts.

frostie500

Packers(-12.5) and Eagles(-6.5) double for the early games for me this week

Peyton Manning

Archimedes wrote: »

Sunday 19th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
1 pts - Winner - Miami Dolphins (+6.0) @ 5/6 (Bet365)

Archimedes wrote: »

Utah (-23.0) @ New Mexico
Boise State (23.0) @ Wyoming
Alabama (-23.0) @ Duke
Houston (-3.0) @ UCLA
Arkansas (+2.5) @ Georgia

Archimedes wrote: »

Couple of bets for tomorrow, aside from those mentioned.

Ray Rice over 72.5 rushing yards @ 5/6
Carson Palmer under 240.5 passing yards @ 5/6

What a sweet weekend :D:D

Peyton Manning

Looking at Eli to throw under 247.5 @ 10/11, might throw on a wee 3 pointer.

Juwwi

Archimedes wrote: »

Looking at Eli to throw under 247.5 @ 10/11, might throw on a wee 3 pointer.

its under 255.5 with pp's at 5/6




edit just seen the time it was no good to you.

Peyton Manning

Archimedes wrote: »

Looking at Eli to throw under 247.5 @ 10/11, might throw on a wee 3 pointer.

Sweeeeet

D3PO

Not a good weekend for me

Cincinnati (NCAAF) Lost - €100

and my spread bets

Acca (Arizona, Ravens, Browns, Cowboys) Lost - € 100
New England Lost - € 100
Vikings Lost - € 100
Seahawks Lost - € 100
Chargers Won + € 91.91
Colts Won +€ 91.91


Wk 1 Profit/Loss + €1081.81
Wk 2 Profit/Loss + €166.64
Wk 3 Profit/Loss - €316.18

Season to date + €932.27

Eire-Dearg

Any tips for tonight lads?

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

This week I like the Packers -13 and the Vikings -5.5. I will double those two.

All the over/unders seem very tight this week and the ones I'm tempted to take on just have question marks that if answered the wrong way will make sure I'm wrong so I won't be doing anything else.

Teams not to back.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Everybody was blown away by the Patriots last week but this is not a game to back them in. The Patriots/Jets is a fierce rivalry, that stadium will be deafening when the Patriots are on offense. I have no doubt that the Patriots offense is electric and it could be the best New England offense ever but the Jets only let the Ravens have 10 points last week. The Patriots defense looked really good early last week but they have to show some consistency before I'll call them a good D. I still have a real worry that the Jets running game could cause us big trouble. I'm a Patriots fan for many years and we've often went there with great expectations and come away with nothing. Its definitely the 'do not touch' game of the weekend for me.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinatti Bengals
Another huge divisional rivalry. Joe Flacco looked poor last week, the Ravens only scored 10 points against the Jets. The Bengals were well beaten last week and people will look at the Patriots game and the Patriots putting up 38 points, they will also say that the game was over when the Bengals started scoring but maybe they just didn't get it together early. The Bengals are at home where they lost two early games last season but won the other 6. The beat the Ravens both home and away last season too. Anything could happen in this game and I'd stay miles clear of it.

Brett Favre let me down badly the weekend. I mean two redzone interceptions, and AP stopped from the 1 yard line. Its should have been an easy win for the Vikings.

I hope I helped people to stay away from two of the more fancied teams anyways who both lost and were highly recommended by others in this thread.

eagle eye

Eire-Dearg wrote: »

Any tips for tonight lads?

I haven't even looked at it yet but I'm working the scoring at 24-17 Saints.

So if the handicap on the Saints is -4 or less I'd take it on. If the over/under is running at 41.5 or less I'd take the over. I wouldn't back the under in this game no matter how high it is.

Kevin11

Handicap is 5pts
Under/Over 43.5

eagle eye

I think there is a good chance that the Saints win by more than 5 and they beat that over but I just don't like either enough to bet on them.

El Horseboxo

eagle eye wrote: »

I think there is a good chance that the Saints win by more than 5 and they beat that over but I just don't like either enough to bet on them.

Looking like a wise choice to give them a miss. Well the pre game over line anyways. SF eating too much time on the ball. SF were +10 at one stage @ 1.90 on PP in play. Really should have took that as this is gonna finish a tight one if it's a repeat of the first half.

Peyton Manning

Boo yeah Looks like trusting Alex Smith paid off

Very nervy finish - between urging the 49ers to miss the 2 pt conversion, and then begging the Saints to just take a field goal at the end. Wasnt sure how Bet365 handled NFL, whether the spread counted for regular time or overtime. All's well that end's well, what a sweet weekend

Pic posted to avoid aftertime allegations :P Also, amounts blocked out because I dont like people seeing my stakes!

Wompa1

I am betting on Party Poker and it sucks. It's betting on odds. It makes it alot easier to win but the return blows. I got on a great run last season on Paddy Power. I won every week for about 9 weeks and then got fed up with it and put it all on 1 crazy accumulator and lost. That's how I roll!

So far this season I have won a measely 20 euro but have only gambled 4....

I did an accumulator this week and backed the Saints last night.

I had the Bucaneers, Kansas City and Greenbay to win. The Chiefs look like world beaters this year Josh Freeman has been impressive in the pocket for the Bucs. The Tight End Willows looks tidy to boot! I love how the NFL changes so much. It's a great sport!

D3PO

Wompa1 wrote: »

I am betting on Party Poker and it sucks. It's betting on odds. It makes it alot easier to win but the return blows. I got on a great run last season on Paddy Power. I won every week for about 9 weeks and then got fed up with it and put it all on 1 crazy accumulator and lost. That's how I roll!

So far this season I have won a measely 20 euro but have only gambled 4....

I did an accumulator this week and backed the Saints last night.

I had the Bucaneers, Kansas City and Greenbay to win. The Chiefs look like world beaters this year Josh Freeman has been impressive in the pocket for the Bucs. The Tight End Willows looks tidy to boot! I love how the NFL changes so much. It's a great sport!

you must be pretty pissed watching the chiefs play then. they have been average at best first two games and another time could be 0-2

LightningBolt

Week 2

Bills @ Packers -13.5 @ 10/11 Win
Saints @ 49ers -5.5 @ 10/11 Lose
Texans @ Skins -3 @ 10/11 Lose

Surprised by the Saints to be honest, had them down to win by a td, McNabb had a good outing against the Texans unfortunately.

1/3 Strike Rate 33%

I hope to hit a 55% stike rate by the end of the year picking just three games. Will post my weekly calls each Friday/Saturday. Any of the other lads want to see who can predict the most accurately on the spread?

eagle eye

So I was badly let down by the Vikings last week and my 100% record went with my only bet in week 2. I have 3 doubles up out of 4 bets to date.

The Houston Texans are the outstanding handicap bet for me this week at -3. The Texans D is not that good but they should put up a big score and Romo's line is not doing its job so I expect the Texans to get to him enough to keep their score down a bit.
The Eagles travel to Jacksonville and while I'm not particularly gone on Philly and their QB situation right now, I expect a big performance in Vicks first game as the confirmed starter and -2.5 looks nice.

So my first double this week is Texans -3 and Eagles -2.5

The Jets/Dolphins points is set at 35 and I like the under in this one. I see 27 max here. These teams seem to both prefer the running game and that eats up the clock, add in that neither seem great on O and we got ourselves a low scoring game.

The Titans/Giants game points total interests me too. As we speak they are both run first teams. They are both good run stopping teams too. Both QBs had trouble last week. As we know running the ball eats up the clock and means less points. The points spread is set at 42 in this one and I think thats too high also. So I'm going with the under in that one too.

So my second double is Jets/Dolphins under 35 and Titans/Giants under 42

eagle eye

The do not touch games for me are as follows.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

This is a bitter divisional rivalry. If you don't know the story, Art Modell was the owner of the Cleveland Browns for many years but moved the franchise to Baltimore where they became known as the Ravens in mid nineties. The Browns had no football team for a couple of years before the franchise rights were bought by Al Lerner(father of Randy Lerner the Aston Villa and current Browns owner).
Anyways enough of the history lesson:P, the handicap is set here at 10. The Browns have lost two close games to date and their D doesn't look at all bad, but the Ravens are coming off a loss at Cincy so they will want to get back on track. Flacco could bounce back to form and if that happened they might obliterate the handicap but if Flacco continues as he had done the first two weeks then this game could be tight. Its just one to stay miles clear of.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

The Bills are going to start Ryan Fitzpatrick this week. He is a pretty nifty QB and there is a likleyhood of a lot of option plays with three RBs of the calibre of Spiller, Lynch and Davis.
The Patriots inexperienced secondary was all over the place last week and if the Bills establish the ground game early then they could cause the Patriots trouble through the air. Its all about the Patriots Offense in this one but given the defensive troubles at the moment I don't like the handicap at -14 at all. I'm actually working the game out right on that total at 38-24 but thats being a tad friendly to the Patriots D I think. It could be a lot close that you'd expect.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

This is a great rivalry and its the game of the weekend for me. Two QBs who can destroy you very quickly when on top form. Rodgers is consistent but things are looking good for Cutler now with a good running game which is buying him some much needed time in the pocket on passing downs. We have two great Ds on show here and two 2-0 teams here too.
This is exactly the game where Rodgers holding onto the ball too long could be a disaster with Urlacher coming up the middle and Peppers coming off the edge. A lot of people will fancy the Packers, personally I fancy the Bears but its a game to avoid at all costs from a betting standpoints.

Washington Redskins @ St Louis Rams
The Redskins always seem to have trouble with the Rams. I'm just basing this on history and nothing else.

D3PO

my plays this week each one €100 single stakes


NCAA


Bama minus 7 versus Arkansas @ 10/11

Despite the fact Arkansas are at home and they have arguably one of the 4 best QB's in college football right now I like Alabama to cover here, the fact is Ryan Mallett hasnt faced a pass rush or a defense even remotely as good as Saban's defending champs so far this season. The pocket will collapse regularly on Mallett and with good coverage in the secondary there will be three and outs for Arkansas which is the main reason I like Alabama.



Ingram and Richardson are without doubt the most talented backfield double act in college football and have a nice balance with McElroy at QB to stop Arkansas putting 8 in the box to neutralise the threat of the run game. I predict a close first half with perhaps even the Razorbacks leading a close one at the interval, but a tiring Arkansas defense will struggle to keep going and stopping the run as Alabama drain their strength as the dominate time of possesion


Texas minus 16 versus UCLA @ 10/11


Whilst many will disagree with this pick given how anemic the Texas offense has been so far this season with signal caller Gilbert behind centre the fact is the season starts here for Texas. This is the warm up for their Biggest regular season game versus OU. They looked much better last week versus Texas Tech and only for a couple of tipped passes could have won that very comfortably.



UCLA have been notoriusly bad travelers in recent times and that has continued into this year against an average Kansas state team. The pasting they recieved from Stanford in game 2 is another inditment to this UCLA team and despit beating a rahnked Houston last week it has to be put into context as Houston had to play over half the game without star QB Case Keenum and had their 3rd string in play.


This will be close to the spread and is a marginal call but I see Texas just covering with a score of 33 - 14


Over 56.5 points Boise v Oregon State


Two words here for this matchup. Style points. Thats what its all about for Boise with V Tech embarrasing themselves against James Maddison the Broncos have to prove themselves for the polls all over again. This might perhaps be the last ranked team they play this year althought they will be praying that Fresno or Nevada mean thats not the case. Essentially they have to treat this like a cup final and rack up as many points as possible. They are a quick strike offense and are averagine over 40 points a game this year. Oregon have proven earlier this eyar against a good TCU defense that they can also score some points so for my mind the over is the play here.


Arizona - 7 v Cal @ 10/11

To me this one is a no brainer. But typically its the "bankers" that burn ya. Cal were terrible against Non AQ Nevada last week and Arizona took a huge step last week from a confidence perspective knocking off #9 Iowa. Arizona is a nicely balanced team with both offense and defense being ranked in the top 15 nationally. Its a conference game so of course its gong to be that much tighter as a result but with Home field advantage I give Zona the edge to pull this out in a relatively low scoring game.


NFL

Eagles - 3 v Jags @ Evens

Big moment for Mick Vick back as a starting NFL WB for the first time since his sabatical from the league. To be honest it couldnt come at a better time matchup wise after posting consequtive 100 passer rating games for only his second time every. The jags secondary is terrible one of the most porus in the league and if Vick can keep with a pass first mentality the the Eagles shouldnt have an issue covering. The caveat here is the Eagles defense which hasnt looked great itself so far this year, but if Vick can strike early and often and keep MJD out of the playcalling they cover relatively comfortably.

Redskins - 3.5 V Rams @ 10/11

Redskins with McNaab under centre look a whole new proposition. They threw away a 2-0 start against the Texans last week and Im sure there read to make amense immediatly against an Improving rams team. This game ultimatly comes down to firepower and right now the supporting case for the Rams is one draft away from being properly competitive, which should allow the Redskins cover with ease.

Peyton Manning

Copied from my log.

Archimedes wrote: »

This weekend's action that I'll be betting on...

TCU @ SMU
2.5 pts - Winner - TCU (-16.5) @ 10/13 (Bet365)

TCU have gone about their business as well as can be expected this season. While they probably should have beat Oregon State by more than they did, they proceeded to crush Tennessee Tech and Baylor. Andrew Dalton at QB is practically a veteran at this stage with 32 wins under his belt and was almost flawless last weekend, but TCU's biggest threat comes on the ground, where they are ranked 9th in the nation. Ed Wesley is their feature running back, and has an average of 8.2 yards per carry so far this year. Of course, Dalton himself has some scrambling skills also. SMU on the other hand have been the definition of 'meh'. The fact they only beat an awful Washington state by 2 TDs is more damning than anything, and they weren't exactly mind blowing against UAB the previous week either. I like Dalton to guide TCU to a comfortable win here, and they should cover the spread.

Alabama @ Arkansas
4.5 pts - Winner - Alabama (-7.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Arkansas were kind to me last week, and Ryan Mallett is pretty much a hero and one of, if not the best QB in college football. However, in Alabama, they're up against one of the great modern college football teams. This team is hideously talented. Mark Ingram is an absolute stud and looked as healthy as ever in last week's rout of Duke. Even their second string RB Trent Richardson would be an undoubted starter on any other team in the nation. Greg McElroy at QB is a born winner, I think the stat doing the rounds about him is that he hasn't lost a game since middle school. I prefer the one about him already having a National Championship ring, as do the rest of his team mates. 2 weeks ago, I would have given Arkansas a chance, but with Mark Ingram and Marcell Dareus having game time under their belts, I don't hold much hope for Mallett and co. I think Bama will beat the spread easily, but this one has the potential to be an absolute cracker of a game. Go out of your way to make sure you see this game - you're seeing some of the best in the business if you do.

Stanford @ Notre Dame
4 pts - Winner - Stanford (-4.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

I can't see how Notre Dame can be mentally prepared for this. They're coming off two straight HUGELY mentally exhausting games against Michigan and Michigan State, losing both. The manner in which they lost last week was such a sucker punch, they will still be hurting. They're a team who know how to put points on the board, but unfortunately they just cant keep opposing teams from doing the same. And even more unfortunately, this week they hose the Andrew Luck led Stanford, 3rd in the nation for points scored. Luck is one of the top rated QBs in college football, and could find himself as a first round pick in next year's NFL draft. He has 10 touchdowns on the year already, and should add to that tally at Notre Dame. They will be all out for the win here, because tought tests in Oregon and USC lie in wait in the weeks following this match up. Again, this game could be a cracker.

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
1 pts - Winner - Dallas Cowboys (+3.0) @ 4/5 (Bet365)

I think this is the week Tony Romo gets it together. It might not be pretty, but I think he can pull it off all the same. The Texans have been impressive so far, but their secondary gave up a huge 850 yards in their opening two games combined. They'll also be exhausted after their overtime battle with the Redskins in Washington last week. I guess what this comes down to is whether I actually believe a team with the Cowboys' talent would start this season 0-3, and I just don't see it happening. This is where they get their first win imo, although a spread-beating loss wouldn't break my heart!

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
3 pts - Winner - Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) @ 11/10 (Bet365)

This is exactly the match-up Brett Favre needs coming off a poor performance in losing to the Dolphins. The Lions secondary is scandalously bad - heck they even let Michael Vick have his way with them through the air last week. Favre should beat up on them this week, and with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, forget about it. They need this win, because a 0-3 start would be almost impossible to claw back from the winner of the Packers - Bears game. Last week's loss to the Dolphins also tips the spread in our favour here, so I really like this one.

D3PO

Archimedies whats your blog link wouldnt mind giving it a read.

Funnily enough most of your plays are steeer clear games for me but your logic is sound

SMU looked good versus Texas Tech. Its an instate rivalry and the program is getting better all the time under June Jones. TCU rush is going great guns but thats due to Daltons crazy good level of passing. Dalton cant be expected to go 22 of 24 every week or whatever crazy stats he had.

Cover the pass and the run game gets weekend. SMU's secondary is their stength. I think the spread is a pretty good one and it could go either way. Therfore its steer clear for me.

Bama totally agree with ya

Stanford should cover but you cant ignore that the last 7 losses by ND is by a combined 23 points or something. So I just dont like the play for that reason.

Dalas are too jeckle and hyde for me to bother with.

Vikings should cover but Im impressed in the Lions improvement this season. Vikes maybe struggling with confidence a little after an 0 - 2 start so althought I expect they might cover its a steer clear for me

Peyton Manning

D3PO wrote: »

Archimedies whats your blog link wouldnt mind giving it a read.

Funnily enough most of your plays are steeer clear games for me but your logic is sound

SMU looked good versus Texas Tech. Its an instate rivalry and the program is getting better all the time under June Jones. TCU rush is going great guns but thats due to Daltons crazy good level of passing. Dalton cant be expected to go 22 of 24 every week or whatever crazy stats he had.

Cover the pass and the run game gets weekend. SMU's secondary is their stength. I think the spread is a pretty good one and it could go either way. Therfore its steer clear for me.

Bama totally agree with ya

Stanford should cover but you cant ignore that the last 7 losses by ND is by a combined 23 points or something. So I just dont like the play for that reason.

Dalas are too jeckle and hyde for me to bother with.

Vikings should cover but Im impressed in the Lions improvement this season. Vikes maybe struggling with confidence a little after an 0 - 2 start so althought I expect they might cover its a steer clear for me

Cheers man. I really like Dalton. He doesn't post monster numbers, but his completion rate as you said is always among the best. I think he was near 75% last week, but I could be thinking of someone else. I'm just hoping their running game will open up the passing game for him, so fingers crossed. My log isn't a blog, it's just a thread I keep over in the gambling forum, the link is in my sig.

I'm hoping the TCU bet comes in tonight, so I'd have some winnings to throw on the Arizona game like yourself. When did you place that bet? Because looking now, the spread is down to -6.5 which is a big plus.

D3PO

Archimedes wrote: »

Cheers man. I really like Dalton. He doesn't post monster numbers, but his completion rate as you said is always among the best. I think he was near 75% last week, but I could be thinking of someone else. I'm just hoping their running game will open up the passing game for him, so fingers crossed. My log isn't a blog, it's just a thread I keep over in the gambling forum, the link is in my sig.

I'm hoping the TCU bet comes in tonight, so I'd have some winnings to throw on the Arizona game like yourself. When did you place that bet? Because looking now, the spread is down to -6.5 which is a big plus.

I normally place on Mondays. Can be advantageous sometimes the spread comes in sometimes it goes out swings and roundabouts.

Cal looked piss poor against Nevada. Now I know Colin Kapernick leads a powerful offense but they were an embarassment. Ever since Best got injured last season they have looked really poor. Add to that Zonas confidence of beating Iowa last week. Makes me really love this play.

eagle eye

I don't really bet much on the college stuff but I think I'm going to do a double on it this week.

Boston College are coming off a bye week and face Virginia Tech. I think the Eagles +4 look really good here.

I think I'll add Notre Dame also at home +4.5 against Stanford. As D3PO says they never lose by much so even if they do lose it should be close.

Peyton Manning

Speaking of Iowa, I'm also looking at under 46.0 in their game against Ball State. They'll win comfortably, but with Penn State coming up next week I can't see them going all out to crush Ball State. The big thing they'll be looking for is an improvement on defence after last week, which I'm sure they'll get. I'm not even sure they'll make the spread of -28 either, but I'll see what state I'm in tomorrow before I jump.

Eire-Dearg

Having a look at

Eagles win @ 1.66
Packers win @ 1.64
Steelers win @ 1.66
Chiefs win @ 2.25
Titans win @ 2.35

Thoughts? I've never done an AF accum before! A fiver returns a nice €120.

mikemac

Looks good, I like those picks

Give it a go!

Wompa1

Not sure about the Titans or the Steelers but best of luck

I think I'd pick

New England
Baltimore
Minesotta
Washington
Philadelphia

Peyton Manning

TCU @ SMU
2.5 pts - Winner - TCU (-16.5) @ 10/13 (Bet365)

TCU have gone about their business as well as can be expected this season. While they probably should have beat Oregon State by more than they did, they proceeded to crush Tennessee Tech and Baylor. Andrew Dalton at QB is practically a veteran at this stage with 32 wins under his belt and was almost flawless last weekend, but TCU's biggest threat comes on the ground, where they are ranked 9th in the nation. Ed Wesley is their feature running back, and has an average of 8.2 yards per carry so far this year. Of course, Dalton himself has some scrambling skills also. SMU on the other hand have been the definition of 'meh'. The fact they only beat an awful Washington state by 2 TDs is more damning than anything, and they weren't exactly mind blowing against UAB the previous week either. I like Dalton to guide TCU to a comfortable win here, and they should cover the spread.

TCU won by 17 - it doesn't get any closer than that! Seriously not good for my health with SMU going 4 and out in the red zone with 45 seconds remaining. Delighted I went with the custom spread of -16.5 rather than the bookies -17.5. That 1 points difference won it for me. Delighted to have called the spread so accurately here. Phew!

There'll be a lot of unhappy punters who took the line of TCU by -17.5 considering they missed the PAT on the last score of the game.