Football Betting Thread

bobby wade

Not sure if this is allowed but wheres your money going??

Won on

Over Oregon State (Win),
Eastern Michigan (Win),
Western Michigan (Push)

Lost on

Oregon State +13.5
Unlv +20.5
Western Kentucky +37.5
Utah State +34
Arkansas State +30.5

western kentucky let me down by 1.5 points

D3PO

Won on

BYU

Fresno St, TCU, SMU +13.5 accumulator


Lost on

USC - 21.5

Still have

Boise - 1.5 (part of an acca with Tipperary at 6/4 (not american football but still )

bobby wade

Boise St could go either way, close one to call

Have taken the over on both tonights NCAA games

D3PO

bobby wade wrote: »

Boise St could go either way, close one to call

true here are my reasons for picking em though

1) Motivation levels. Still a chip on their shoulder to get the respect they deserve

2) Not a true home game for VT

3) More balanced offense. If they stop VT running the ball, VT are in big trouble

4) Kellen Moore is a winner 22-1 as a starter. Ice running through the guys veins

5) returning 21 of 22 starters

Peyton Manning

My bets for this week (taken from my log over in the gambling forum). For those that are unfamiliar with the points system, it's basically just a scale between 1 and 5 where 1 point is a bet representing low confidence, but an outside chance, and 5 points shows high confidence and what I think is a sure thing.

Time for the regular season baby!

Sunday 12th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots
3 pts - Winner - New England Patriots (-4.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Tom Brady has looked like the Tom Brady we know and love this preseason. His knee injury is well and truly behind him, so expect him to light up the NFL this season. I think the Pats have just too many weapons for the Bengals to deal with, who are under a lot of pressure given the intense focus they've been under this preseason. To stop Brady, you need to get him, and the Bengals just don't have that good of a pass rush. Brady's record as a starter in home games has me very confident they can cover the spread here.


Sunday 12th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
1 pts - Winner - Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

I usually look for a clear favourite, and then see if the spread is suitable. There's no clear favourite here, so a spread of +6.5 for the Panthers is too tempting to turn down. The Giants have the pressure of performing in the opener of their new stadium. An interesting stat I've read is that favourites have lost 8 times from 11 when opening a new stadium in the NFL over the past 15 years. Aside from that, both teams should focus on running the ball, with the passing game lacking a bit. That should see more field goals than touchdowns in third and long situations, which goes nicely with this spread bet.

Sunday 12th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
3 pts - Winner - Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

This is the value bet of the week for me. A spread of +6.5 for the Lions is too generous to turn down. I'm loving whats going on in Detroit. Matthew Stafford is a stud, Calvin Johnson is the most freakishly athletically skilled player in the NFL, and Jahvid Best looks like a star in the making at RB. Despite all this, the best thing the Lions have going at the moment is the addition of Nate Burleson. Now, Burleson is nowhere near those three in terms of star power, but what does do is open it up for the playmakers. This is the first time Calvin Johnson has had a legitimate threat lining up across the field from him, so it will take some coverage away from him, which also helps the running game of course. Jay Cutler on the other hand doesn't look much improved from last season if what we've seen from preseason is anything to go by, and while Matt Forte should bounce back from last years dismal failing, he doesn't carry the same threat as he used to. Expect this to be a scorefest, although I wont be doing any overs/unders in the first week.

Sunday 12th September 4:15pm ET (9:15pm Irish Time)
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
4 pts - Winner - San Francisco 49ers (-3.0) @ Evens (Bet365)

Wow, so let me get this straight. The Seahawks, a team in rapid decline with an old, beat up Quarterback, one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, sub-par running backs (and still not knowing which one is their preferred starter), and minus their stud draft pick, are expected to keep up with a 3 point spread against a team with Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree and a badass defence captained by the best linebacker in the business? I'm all over this one like a bad rash, but Im so confident of it winning, I imagine it's a sexually transmitted rash after a night of passion with Cheryl Cole, so I don't feel too bad about it.

I'll also be doing a weekly 1 pts accumulator for the heck of it. This weeks selection is:

Miami Dolphins (-3.0) @ Buffalo Bills
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks

1 pts @ 11/1 (Bet365)

Note: You might notice some of the spreads are different in the accumulator to what Bet365 are showing. That's because I placed the accumulator over a week ago, so there were different spreads available. From now on that shouldn't be the case as I'll only bet on the upcoming weeks action.

Also, 3 of the games I'm betting on will be on TV this week.

Panthers @ Giants
49ers @ Seahawks
Chargers @ Chiefs

They're all on Sky at their respective times, so you have no excuse not to get fully involved if you're following this thread

Here's to a great season of football!

eagle eye

I'll put up a bet every week too.

I'm interested in buying money so sometimes it will be just a non-spread accum. but this week its a double.

Detroit Lions +6.5
Miami Dolphins -3

Those are the two games you should be concentrating on.

I'll also put up games where people seem ready to jump aboard and lump on that I think you should leave alone.

Do not back the 49ers
The 49ers lost to Seattle last year in Seattle, this Seattle team is better than last season. The Seahawks are excellent against the run which takes a lot away from the 49ers offense. Its all on Alex Smith's shoulders and I don't think he is good enough. If San Fran win here it will be a minor shock to me, backing them minus points is just ridiculous. I think Seattle will win this but its not a betting proposition.

Do not back Green Bay
I think the Packers are a wonderful team but the Eagles are always in the picture and are one of the most successful teams over the last decade. They have got much younger too on offense with McNabb and Westbrook gone and Kolb taking over with Vick as his backup and Mike Bell coming in to back up McCoy. They have a solid defensive line with some top corners. The running game could cause them problems here but I don't see Rodgers putting up huge yardage. And most importantly they are at home in this game. The biggest thing that people fail to understand is the importance of home advantage in the NFL. With really weak teams it obviously doesn't matter but with big teams they rarely lose at home and the Philadelphia Eagles are a big, big team.

fatgav

Colts away to Houston are intriguing for me. Like the Lions as well, but worried that everyone is. Chiefs may do me proud against San Diego, but I am a fan so not sure whether that's my head or heart speaking, and if the over/under is an any way respectable in the Bengals/Patriots game then I'll take the over for sure.

eagle eye

fatgav wrote: »

Colts away to Houston are intriguing for me. Like the Lions as well, but worried that everyone is. Chiefs may do me proud against San Diego, but I am a fan so not sure whether that's my head or heart speaking, and if the over/under is an any way respectable in the Bengals/Patriots game then I'll take the over for sure.

Yeah I forgot all about the over/under.

I'll be having a look at the overs in the Colts/Texans and Bengals/Patriots games. They should be really high scoring. I think both are highly like to go over 50 points. So if its at 46ish I'll jump on the over.

Peyton Manning

eagle eye wrote: »

Do not back the 49ers
The 49ers lost to Seattle last year in Seattle, this Seattle team is better than last season. The Seahawks are excellent against the run which takes a lot away from the 49ers offense. Its all on Alex Smith's shoulders and I don't think he is good enough. If San Fran win here it will be a minor shock to me, backing them minus points is just ridiculous. I think Seattle will win this but its not a betting proposition.

That win last season is very misleading though. They won with a field goal as the clock expired, and the 49ers just had an off day. Anything that could have went wrong, did go wrong - they just had no luck.

» Incompletions on third and fourth downs from the Seattle 1 in the opening quarter.

» A fumble on a punt-return reverse botched by Arnaz Battle and Brandon Jones.

» Another fumble by Gore, when the 49ers finally dusted off the mothballed runner. It was forced by Jordan Babineaux at the Seattle 22 and returned 43 yards by Josh Wilson to set up Mare's first field goal of the final quarter.

» Davis having Smith's would-be touchdown pass zip through his hands and off his facemask in the end zone while down 17-14 late in the game.

Frank Gore was only given 9 rushing attempts in that game too, I expect him to be given a lot more this time round. The 49ers are fresh, their starters were rested for the majority of preseason (in comparison to other teams).

Im also not sure how you reckon the Seahawks are great against the run. They're good, but nothing more than that and finished 15th and 18th the past two seasons against the rush, and came 5th last in rushing TDs against last season. In their last 10 games last year, they also gave up over 113 rushing yards 8 times.

The 49ers will stomp all over them imo. Carroll was a great college coach, but this is the NFL - he didn't fare too well last time he was in the league, and Mike Singletary will put absolutely everything into this game because he's vicious like that.

eagle eye

Archimedes wrote: »

That win last season is very misleading though. They won with a field goal as the clock expired, and the 49ers just had an off day. Anything that could have went wrong, did go wrong - they just had no luck.



Frank Gore was only given 9 rushing attempts in that game too, I expect him to be given a lot more this time round. The 49ers are fresh, their starters were rested for the majority of preseason (in comparison to other teams).

Im also not sure how you reckon the Seahawks are great against the run. They're good, but nothing more than that and finished 15th and 18th the past two seasons against the rush, and came 5th last in rushing TDs against last season. In their last 10 games last year, they also gave up over 113 rushing yards 8 times.

The 49ers will stomp all over them imo. Carroll was a great college coach, but this is the NFL - he didn't fare too well last time he was in the league, and Mike Singletary will put absolutely everything into this game because he's vicious like that.

Carroll wasn't too bad with the Patriots either in fairness. He handed over a fine team to Bill Belichick.
I don't rate Mike Singletary at all.

Do you want to remind of what Frank Gore did on his 9 rushes in that game? I couldn't be bothered checking but I think it was 29 yards iirc.

Don't forget home advantage, its huge. Don't overestimate Alex Smith. Don't underestimate Pete Carroll.

We'll see on Sunday anyways but I really see the Seahawks winning this game. I don't see anybody on the 49ers who can match up with Mike Williams who imo is about to become one of the elite receivers in the NFL. The talent was always there, he hasn't shown it since he was in USC but he has been awesome in preseason. He combines speed, strength and he is all of 6'5" tall, its why he was the no.10 pick a few years back.

Carroll is no fool and he didn't dump Housh without a receiving corp he is very happy with. Deoin Branch is the other guy and if he comes back to being half the man he was a couple of years ago then they are going to tear the 49ers apart with deep balls.

eagle eye

Let me add again by the way that I don't think the game is a betting proposition. I'm not saying with huge certaintly that the Seahawks win it. The x factors in this game are on the 49ers side and they are Alex Smith primarily, and then Crabtree and Vernon Davis if Smith has a good game. You couldn't trust Smith though.

Peyton Manning

eagle eye wrote: »

Carroll wasn't too bad with the Patriots either in fairness. He handed over a fine team to Bill Belichick.
I don't rate Mike Singletary at all.

Well Singletary is 7-2 against divisional rivals so far, so in this case, he has his credentials.

eagle eye wrote: »

Do you want to remind of what Frank Gore did on his 9 rushes in that game? I couldn't be bothered checking but I think it was 29 yards iirc.

It was actually less than that, but I wouldn't draw too much conclusions from it. We all know what Gore is capable of, he's one of the best at breaking for long runs in the NFL which is his biggest threat, so 9 carries isn't a fair reflection of what he can do.

eagle eye wrote:

Don't forget home advantage, its huge.

Im not forgetting it, but on opening day, it's not that big of a factor. Last year, home teams were 12-20 against the spread on the opening day.

eagle eye wrote:

Don't overestimate Alex Smith. Don't underestimate Pete Carroll.

Im estimating Alex Smith about right, last year he threw for 310 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions against the Seahawks. I certainly trust him.

As for Pete Carroll, it's been a while since he's been in the NFL so I'll have to see how he does this year before I can judge him.

eagle eye wrote:

We'll see on Sunday anyways but I really see the Seahawks winning this game. I don't see anybody on the 49ers who can match up with Mike Williams who imo is about to become one of the elite receivers in the NFL. The talent was always there, he hasn't shown it since he was in USC but he has been awesome in preseason. He combines speed, strength and he is all of 6'5" tall, its why he was the no.10 pick a few years back.

Carroll is no fool and he didn't dump Housh without a receiving corp he is very happy with. Deoin Branch is the other guy and if he comes back to being half the man he was a couple of years ago then they are going to tear the 49ers apart with deep balls.

I agree with your Williams praising, love the guy, but his production very much hinges on what Hasselbeck can do, and I just think he'll struggle a lot this year. The Seahawks 2 leading receivers from this fixture last year are no longer in Seattle, so it's very much an uphill struggle for them imo.

One things for sure, one of us is gonna crash and burn this weekend!

eagle eye

Archimedes wrote: »

One things for sure, one of us is gonna crash and burn this weekend!

I'm not betting on the game, I just see it as one to stay far away from. If the 49ers win so be it, its no money out of my pocket.

I see a thumping either way as unlikely but possible, I see a close win either way as very likely. Basically I think any result in this game is equally possible.

If anything backing the Seahawks straight presents value but I just wouldn't recommend any bet on the game and that includes over/unders and everything else.

bobby wade

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints : Adrian Peterson Total Rushing Yards Over 85.5 20/23

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants : Handicap Betting Carolina Panthers +7 EVS

D3PO

eagle eye wrote: »

Do not back the 49ers
The 49ers lost to Seattle last year in Seattle, this Seattle team is better than last season. The Seahawks are excellent against the run which takes a lot away from the 49ers offense. Its all on Alex Smith's shoulders and I don't think he is good enough. If San Fran win here it will be a minor shock to me, backing them minus points is just ridiculous. I think Seattle will win this but its not a betting proposition.

Do not back Green Bay
I think the Packers are a wonderful team but the Eagles are always in the picture and are one of the most successful teams over the last decade. They have got much younger too on offense with McNabb and Westbrook gone and Kolb taking over with Vick as his backup and Mike Bell coming in to back up McCoy. They have a solid defensive line with some top corners. The running game could cause them problems here but I don't see Rodgers putting up huge yardage. And most importantly they are at home in this game. The biggest thing that people fail to understand is the importance of home advantage in the NFL. With really weak teams it obviously doesn't matter but with big teams they rarely lose at home and the Philadelphia Eagles are a big, big team.

I agree I dont like either of those plays. I think Seattle will do well this year. Carroll is a smart cookie and I expect them to be a bit of a surprise package.

D3PO

My picks this week

College

Georgia Tech - 14 Versus Kansas
LSU -10 Versus Vandy
Stanford - 6 Versus UCLA

NFL

Miami - 3 Versus Buffalo
Atlanta +2.5 Versus Pitt
Baltimore +2.5 Versus NYJ

Oat23

Probably going to go with this accumulator.

Broncos
Phins
49ers
Colts
Bucs
Bears

Odds were around 21.5/1 when I looked earlier.

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

I'll put up a bet every week too.

I'm interested in buying money so sometimes it will be just a non-spread accum. but this week its a double.

Detroit Lions +6.5
Miami Dolphins -3

Those are the two games you should be concentrating on.

I'll also put up games where people seem ready to jump aboard and lump on that I think you should leave alone.

Do not back the 49ers
The 49ers lost to Seattle last year in Seattle, this Seattle team is better than last season. The Seahawks are excellent against the run which takes a lot away from the 49ers offense. Its all on Alex Smith's shoulders and I don't think he is good enough. If San Fran win here it will be a minor shock to me, backing them minus points is just ridiculous. I think Seattle will win this but its not a betting proposition.

Do not back Green Bay
I think the Packers are a wonderful team but the Eagles are always in the picture and are one of the most successful teams over the last decade. They have got much younger too on offense with McNabb and Westbrook gone and Kolb taking over with Vick as his backup and Mike Bell coming in to back up McCoy. They have a solid defensive line with some top corners. The running game could cause them problems here but I don't see Rodgers putting up huge yardage. And most importantly they are at home in this game. The biggest thing that people fail to understand is the importance of home advantage in the NFL. With really weak teams it obviously doesn't matter but with big teams they rarely lose at home and the Philadelphia Eagles are a big, big team.

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah I forgot all about the over/under.

I'll be having a look at the overs in the Colts/Texans and Bengals/Patriots games. They should be really high scoring. I think both are highly like to go over 50 points. So if its at 46ish I'll jump on the over.

What a sweet day.:D

D3PO

D3PO wrote: »

My picks this week

College

Georgia Tech - 14 Versus Kansas (LOSS) -100
LSU -10 Versus Vandy (WIN) +91.91
Stanford - 6 Versus UCLA (WIN) +91.91

NFL

Miami - 3 Versus Buffalo (WIN) +91.91
Atlanta +2.5 Versus Pitt (LOSS) -100
Baltimore +2.5 Versus NYJ (WIN) +91.91

Wk 1 Profit/Loss + €1081.81
Wk 2 Profit/Loss + €166.64

Season to date + €1248.45

eagle eye

Just had a look at tonights games now.

Opening Monday nights have a history of being high scoring games but I just can't see that between the Ravens and Jets. The under 36.5 looks good to me.

The other game is the Chiefs/Chargers and the 45 is the line in that one and the under looks good there too. The Chiefs have been working hard on the front seven, which contains a couple of young first rounders from the last couple of drafts. This team has Scott Pioli as GM, with Charlie Weis as OC and Romeo Crenell as DC. They basically have all the important figures outside of Bill Belichick from the Patriots Superbowl winning teams. This is not to be underestimated and a shock could be on the cards tonight. We have to see them first though to be sure but I think the under 45 is highly likely tonight.

So I'm doing the double on both the unders tonight.

eagle eye

D3PO

Good week for ya Eagle.

OK one myself didnt do any accas though so that limited my profit. time to get looking for wk3/2 value

Peyton Manning

This is what Im going with this weekend.

Sunday 19th September 4:15pm ET (9:15pm Irish Time)
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
3 pts - Winner - New England Patriots (-3.0) @ Evens (Bet365)

Sunday 19th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
1 pts - Winner - Miami Dolphins (+6.0) @ 5/6 (Bet365)

Sunday 19th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Benfals
3 pts - Winner - Baltimore Ravens (-2.0) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

trionz

Last Week:
€10 Accum: 49ers, Texans, Atlanta, Cleveland, Jags -€10
€60: Fins (-3) €50
€10 Double: SD (-4.5), Ravens -€10
€10 Double: Mark Sanchez Under (165.5 YDS), Matt Cassel Under (210.5 YDS) €23.61

Total Week 1 Profit/Loss = €53.61

This Week:
€10 Accum: Baltimore Ravens @ 4/5, Kansas City Chiefs @ Evens, Detroit Lions (+6.0) @ 10/11
€0.80 Accum (For the Craic): Saints @ 5/12, Colts @ 5/12, San Diego Chargers @ 10/37, New England Patriots @ 8/11, Houston Texans @ 20/29, Seattle Seahawks @ 6/4, Oakland Raiders @ 5/11, Carolina Panthers @ 1/2, Baltimore Ravens @ 4/5, Kansas City Chiefs @ Evens, Minnesota Vikings @ 5/12, Atlanta Falcons @ 1/3, Dallas Cowboys @ 10/39, Philadelphia Eagles @ 5/13, Tennessee Titans @ 5/12, Green Bay Packers @ 1/7

eagle eye

This week I like the Packers -13 and the Vikings -5.5. I will double those two.

All the over/unders seem very tight this week and the ones I'm tempted to take on just have question marks that if answered the wrong way will make sure I'm wrong so I won't be doing anything else.

Teams not to back.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Everybody was blown away by the Patriots last week but this is not a game to back them in. The Patriots/Jets is a fierce rivalry, that stadium will be deafening when the Patriots are on offense. I have no doubt that the Patriots offense is electric and it could be the best New England offense ever but the Jets only let the Ravens have 10 points last week. The Patriots defense looked really good early last week but they have to show some consistency before I'll call them a good D. I still have a real worry that the Jets running game could cause us big trouble. I'm a Patriots fan for many years and we've often went there with great expectations and come away with nothing. Its definitely the 'do not touch' game of the weekend for me.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinatti Bengals
Another huge divisional rivalry. Joe Flacco looked poor last week, the Ravens only scored 10 points against the Jets. The Bengals were well beaten last week and people will look at the Patriots game and the Patriots putting up 38 points, they will also say that the game was over when the Bengals started scoring but maybe they just didn't get it together early. The Bengals are at home where they lost two early games last season but won the other 6. The beat the Ravens both home and away last season too. Anything could happen in this game and I'd stay miles clear of it.

D3PO

havent decided this weekends bets yet

but tonights College game ive taken

Cincinnati off scratch v NC State @ 11/10 my usual €100 stake

Peyton Manning

Looking at some college games at the weekend, I'll only be placing 3 bets, but I can only narrow it down to these five:

Utah (-23.0) @ New Mexico
Boise State (23.0) @ Wyoming
Alabama (-23.0) @ Duke
Houston (-3.0) @ UCLA
Arkansas (+2.5) @ Georgia

Im almost certain to go for Utah and Houston individually, and stick the other 3 in an accumulator. Boise State know they have to run up big numbers to keep their BCS hopes alive, so I'd be pretty confident they can do it. Bama have Ingram and Dareus back, which should ensure the scoreline gets pretty ugly at Duke, and Ryan Mallet looks just too damn good to bet against, while I was not impressed with Georgia last week.

Peyton Manning

Utah and my 3 team accumulator came in. Houston lost, but I made up for it with an in-play on Iowa +14.5. Ridiculous really, if you had been following the game you'd have seen how crazy that spread was. I was all over it.

Couple of bets for tomorrow, aside from those mentioned.

Ray Rice over 72.5 rushing yards @ 5/6
Carson Palmer under 240.5 passing yards @ 5/6

darsar

Archimedes wrote: »

Ray Rice over 72.5 rushing yards @ 5/6
Carson Palmer under 240.5 passing yards @ 5/6

Where are you getting a price from? I can't see on Boyles or PP....

LightningBolt

Week 2

Bills @ Packers -13.5 @ 10/11
Saints @ 49ers -5.5 @ 10/11
Texans @ Skins -3 @ 10/11

Peyton Manning

darsar wrote: »

Where are you getting a price from? I can't see on Boyles or PP....

Bet365 under Player Performances.

SantryRed

5 pt double on Green Bay and Tennessee to win. Returns 8.10 pts.

frostie500

Packers(-12.5) and Eagles(-6.5) double for the early games for me this week

Peyton Manning

Archimedes wrote: »

Sunday 19th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
1 pts - Winner - Miami Dolphins (+6.0) @ 5/6 (Bet365)

Archimedes wrote: »

Utah (-23.0) @ New Mexico
Boise State (23.0) @ Wyoming
Alabama (-23.0) @ Duke
Houston (-3.0) @ UCLA
Arkansas (+2.5) @ Georgia

Archimedes wrote: »

Couple of bets for tomorrow, aside from those mentioned.

Ray Rice over 72.5 rushing yards @ 5/6
Carson Palmer under 240.5 passing yards @ 5/6

What a sweet weekend :D:D

Peyton Manning

Looking at Eli to throw under 247.5 @ 10/11, might throw on a wee 3 pointer.

Juwwi

Archimedes wrote: »

Looking at Eli to throw under 247.5 @ 10/11, might throw on a wee 3 pointer.

its under 255.5 with pp's at 5/6




edit just seen the time it was no good to you.

Peyton Manning

Archimedes wrote: »

Looking at Eli to throw under 247.5 @ 10/11, might throw on a wee 3 pointer.

Sweeeeet

D3PO

Not a good weekend for me

Cincinnati (NCAAF) Lost - €100

and my spread bets

Acca (Arizona, Ravens, Browns, Cowboys) Lost - € 100
New England Lost - € 100
Vikings Lost - € 100
Seahawks Lost - € 100
Chargers Won + € 91.91
Colts Won +€ 91.91


Wk 1 Profit/Loss + €1081.81
Wk 2 Profit/Loss + €166.64
Wk 3 Profit/Loss - €316.18

Season to date + €932.27

Eire-Dearg

Any tips for tonight lads?

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

This week I like the Packers -13 and the Vikings -5.5. I will double those two.

All the over/unders seem very tight this week and the ones I'm tempted to take on just have question marks that if answered the wrong way will make sure I'm wrong so I won't be doing anything else.

Teams not to back.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Everybody was blown away by the Patriots last week but this is not a game to back them in. The Patriots/Jets is a fierce rivalry, that stadium will be deafening when the Patriots are on offense. I have no doubt that the Patriots offense is electric and it could be the best New England offense ever but the Jets only let the Ravens have 10 points last week. The Patriots defense looked really good early last week but they have to show some consistency before I'll call them a good D. I still have a real worry that the Jets running game could cause us big trouble. I'm a Patriots fan for many years and we've often went there with great expectations and come away with nothing. Its definitely the 'do not touch' game of the weekend for me.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinatti Bengals
Another huge divisional rivalry. Joe Flacco looked poor last week, the Ravens only scored 10 points against the Jets. The Bengals were well beaten last week and people will look at the Patriots game and the Patriots putting up 38 points, they will also say that the game was over when the Bengals started scoring but maybe they just didn't get it together early. The Bengals are at home where they lost two early games last season but won the other 6. The beat the Ravens both home and away last season too. Anything could happen in this game and I'd stay miles clear of it.

Brett Favre let me down badly the weekend. I mean two redzone interceptions, and AP stopped from the 1 yard line. Its should have been an easy win for the Vikings.

I hope I helped people to stay away from two of the more fancied teams anyways who both lost and were highly recommended by others in this thread.

eagle eye

Eire-Dearg wrote: »

Any tips for tonight lads?

I haven't even looked at it yet but I'm working the scoring at 24-17 Saints.

So if the handicap on the Saints is -4 or less I'd take it on. If the over/under is running at 41.5 or less I'd take the over. I wouldn't back the under in this game no matter how high it is.

Kevin11

Handicap is 5pts
Under/Over 43.5

eagle eye

I think there is a good chance that the Saints win by more than 5 and they beat that over but I just don't like either enough to bet on them.

El Horseboxo

eagle eye wrote: »

I think there is a good chance that the Saints win by more than 5 and they beat that over but I just don't like either enough to bet on them.

Looking like a wise choice to give them a miss. Well the pre game over line anyways. SF eating too much time on the ball. SF were +10 at one stage @ 1.90 on PP in play. Really should have took that as this is gonna finish a tight one if it's a repeat of the first half.

Peyton Manning

Boo yeah Looks like trusting Alex Smith paid off

Very nervy finish - between urging the 49ers to miss the 2 pt conversion, and then begging the Saints to just take a field goal at the end. Wasnt sure how Bet365 handled NFL, whether the spread counted for regular time or overtime. All's well that end's well, what a sweet weekend

Pic posted to avoid aftertime allegations :P Also, amounts blocked out because I dont like people seeing my stakes!

Wompa1

I am betting on Party Poker and it sucks. It's betting on odds. It makes it alot easier to win but the return blows. I got on a great run last season on Paddy Power. I won every week for about 9 weeks and then got fed up with it and put it all on 1 crazy accumulator and lost. That's how I roll!

So far this season I have won a measely 20 euro but have only gambled 4....

I did an accumulator this week and backed the Saints last night.

I had the Bucaneers, Kansas City and Greenbay to win. The Chiefs look like world beaters this year Josh Freeman has been impressive in the pocket for the Bucs. The Tight End Willows looks tidy to boot! I love how the NFL changes so much. It's a great sport!

D3PO

Wompa1 wrote: »

I am betting on Party Poker and it sucks. It's betting on odds. It makes it alot easier to win but the return blows. I got on a great run last season on Paddy Power. I won every week for about 9 weeks and then got fed up with it and put it all on 1 crazy accumulator and lost. That's how I roll!

So far this season I have won a measely 20 euro but have only gambled 4....

I did an accumulator this week and backed the Saints last night.

I had the Bucaneers, Kansas City and Greenbay to win. The Chiefs look like world beaters this year Josh Freeman has been impressive in the pocket for the Bucs. The Tight End Willows looks tidy to boot! I love how the NFL changes so much. It's a great sport!

you must be pretty pissed watching the chiefs play then. they have been average at best first two games and another time could be 0-2

LightningBolt

Week 2

Bills @ Packers -13.5 @ 10/11 Win
Saints @ 49ers -5.5 @ 10/11 Lose
Texans @ Skins -3 @ 10/11 Lose

Surprised by the Saints to be honest, had them down to win by a td, McNabb had a good outing against the Texans unfortunately.

1/3 Strike Rate 33%

I hope to hit a 55% stike rate by the end of the year picking just three games. Will post my weekly calls each Friday/Saturday. Any of the other lads want to see who can predict the most accurately on the spread?

eagle eye

So I was badly let down by the Vikings last week and my 100% record went with my only bet in week 2. I have 3 doubles up out of 4 bets to date.

The Houston Texans are the outstanding handicap bet for me this week at -3. The Texans D is not that good but they should put up a big score and Romo's line is not doing its job so I expect the Texans to get to him enough to keep their score down a bit.
The Eagles travel to Jacksonville and while I'm not particularly gone on Philly and their QB situation right now, I expect a big performance in Vicks first game as the confirmed starter and -2.5 looks nice.

So my first double this week is Texans -3 and Eagles -2.5

The Jets/Dolphins points is set at 35 and I like the under in this one. I see 27 max here. These teams seem to both prefer the running game and that eats up the clock, add in that neither seem great on O and we got ourselves a low scoring game.

The Titans/Giants game points total interests me too. As we speak they are both run first teams. They are both good run stopping teams too. Both QBs had trouble last week. As we know running the ball eats up the clock and means less points. The points spread is set at 42 in this one and I think thats too high also. So I'm going with the under in that one too.

So my second double is Jets/Dolphins under 35 and Titans/Giants under 42

eagle eye

The do not touch games for me are as follows.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

This is a bitter divisional rivalry. If you don't know the story, Art Modell was the owner of the Cleveland Browns for many years but moved the franchise to Baltimore where they became known as the Ravens in mid nineties. The Browns had no football team for a couple of years before the franchise rights were bought by Al Lerner(father of Randy Lerner the Aston Villa and current Browns owner).
Anyways enough of the history lesson:P, the handicap is set here at 10. The Browns have lost two close games to date and their D doesn't look at all bad, but the Ravens are coming off a loss at Cincy so they will want to get back on track. Flacco could bounce back to form and if that happened they might obliterate the handicap but if Flacco continues as he had done the first two weeks then this game could be tight. Its just one to stay miles clear of.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

The Bills are going to start Ryan Fitzpatrick this week. He is a pretty nifty QB and there is a likleyhood of a lot of option plays with three RBs of the calibre of Spiller, Lynch and Davis.
The Patriots inexperienced secondary was all over the place last week and if the Bills establish the ground game early then they could cause the Patriots trouble through the air. Its all about the Patriots Offense in this one but given the defensive troubles at the moment I don't like the handicap at -14 at all. I'm actually working the game out right on that total at 38-24 but thats being a tad friendly to the Patriots D I think. It could be a lot close that you'd expect.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

This is a great rivalry and its the game of the weekend for me. Two QBs who can destroy you very quickly when on top form. Rodgers is consistent but things are looking good for Cutler now with a good running game which is buying him some much needed time in the pocket on passing downs. We have two great Ds on show here and two 2-0 teams here too.
This is exactly the game where Rodgers holding onto the ball too long could be a disaster with Urlacher coming up the middle and Peppers coming off the edge. A lot of people will fancy the Packers, personally I fancy the Bears but its a game to avoid at all costs from a betting standpoints.

Washington Redskins @ St Louis Rams
The Redskins always seem to have trouble with the Rams. I'm just basing this on history and nothing else.

D3PO

my plays this week each one €100 single stakes


NCAA


Bama minus 7 versus Arkansas @ 10/11

Despite the fact Arkansas are at home and they have arguably one of the 4 best QB's in college football right now I like Alabama to cover here, the fact is Ryan Mallett hasnt faced a pass rush or a defense even remotely as good as Saban's defending champs so far this season. The pocket will collapse regularly on Mallett and with good coverage in the secondary there will be three and outs for Arkansas which is the main reason I like Alabama.



Ingram and Richardson are without doubt the most talented backfield double act in college football and have a nice balance with McElroy at QB to stop Arkansas putting 8 in the box to neutralise the threat of the run game. I predict a close first half with perhaps even the Razorbacks leading a close one at the interval, but a tiring Arkansas defense will struggle to keep going and stopping the run as Alabama drain their strength as the dominate time of possesion


Texas minus 16 versus UCLA @ 10/11


Whilst many will disagree with this pick given how anemic the Texas offense has been so far this season with signal caller Gilbert behind centre the fact is the season starts here for Texas. This is the warm up for their Biggest regular season game versus OU. They looked much better last week versus Texas Tech and only for a couple of tipped passes could have won that very comfortably.



UCLA have been notoriusly bad travelers in recent times and that has continued into this year against an average Kansas state team. The pasting they recieved from Stanford in game 2 is another inditment to this UCLA team and despit beating a rahnked Houston last week it has to be put into context as Houston had to play over half the game without star QB Case Keenum and had their 3rd string in play.


This will be close to the spread and is a marginal call but I see Texas just covering with a score of 33 - 14


Over 56.5 points Boise v Oregon State


Two words here for this matchup. Style points. Thats what its all about for Boise with V Tech embarrasing themselves against James Maddison the Broncos have to prove themselves for the polls all over again. This might perhaps be the last ranked team they play this year althought they will be praying that Fresno or Nevada mean thats not the case. Essentially they have to treat this like a cup final and rack up as many points as possible. They are a quick strike offense and are averagine over 40 points a game this year. Oregon have proven earlier this eyar against a good TCU defense that they can also score some points so for my mind the over is the play here.


Arizona - 7 v Cal @ 10/11

To me this one is a no brainer. But typically its the "bankers" that burn ya. Cal were terrible against Non AQ Nevada last week and Arizona took a huge step last week from a confidence perspective knocking off #9 Iowa. Arizona is a nicely balanced team with both offense and defense being ranked in the top 15 nationally. Its a conference game so of course its gong to be that much tighter as a result but with Home field advantage I give Zona the edge to pull this out in a relatively low scoring game.


NFL

Eagles - 3 v Jags @ Evens

Big moment for Mick Vick back as a starting NFL WB for the first time since his sabatical from the league. To be honest it couldnt come at a better time matchup wise after posting consequtive 100 passer rating games for only his second time every. The jags secondary is terrible one of the most porus in the league and if Vick can keep with a pass first mentality the the Eagles shouldnt have an issue covering. The caveat here is the Eagles defense which hasnt looked great itself so far this year, but if Vick can strike early and often and keep MJD out of the playcalling they cover relatively comfortably.

Redskins - 3.5 V Rams @ 10/11

Redskins with McNaab under centre look a whole new proposition. They threw away a 2-0 start against the Texans last week and Im sure there read to make amense immediatly against an Improving rams team. This game ultimatly comes down to firepower and right now the supporting case for the Rams is one draft away from being properly competitive, which should allow the Redskins cover with ease.