GAA Betting

robbiezero

mistermiyagi wrote: »

To qualify,
1/500 v Westmeath.
Should be 4-9 v KK, but will be 4-5.
Should be evens v Lim, but will be 5-4.
4-6 the Final.
4-5, 5-4, 4-6 gives less than 6-1, so 8-1 is def value esp when u look at the 'should be' prices.
All just my opinion tho!
Gambling is all about opinions, one man's food is another man's poison.

I wouldn't think there is any chance the winners of Cork and KK are anything lower than 6/4 v Limerick.

ShamoBuc

mistermiyagi wrote: »

To qualify,
1/500 v Westmeath.
Should be 4-9 v KK, but will be 4-5.
Should be evens v Lim, but will be 5-4.
4-6 the Final.
4-5, 5-4, 4-6 gives less than 6-1, so 8-1 is def value esp when u look at the 'should be' prices.
All just my opinion tho!
Gambling is all about opinions, one man's food is another man's poison.

When you break down the odds it looks good.
But as a Corkman, I just cannot see Cork winning Liam this year.
Getting 3 (or 4) performances on the trot out of this Cork team just wont happen I think.
Limerick have the bit between their teeth and have the best subs bench in the game.
We caught them cold in Limerick this year, I really dont expect that to happen again, especially in Croker.
Odds wise I can see the interest but I wont be on, but I'd be delighted if it comes in:D

realdanbreen

Where would I get odds on a Tipp v Kilkenny final?

Clippett

realdanbreen wrote: »

Where would I get odds on a Tipp v Kilkenny final?

10/1 with PP and Boyles

mistermiyagi

Well Mr Boyle can take no more at 8-1, Cork into 13-2.

Firms very slow with the Football match ups, waiting for the venues?

robbiezero

mistermiyagi wrote: »

Well Mr Boyle can take no more at 8-1, Cork into 13-2.

Firms very slow with the Football match ups, waiting for the venues?

Somebody must have put 20 quid on it to make them move like that.

Football games are up on PP and Boyles now.

crossman47

ShamoBuc wrote: »

When you break down the odds it looks good.
But as a Corkman, I just cannot see Cork winning Liam this year.
Getting 3 (or 4) performances on the trot out of this Cork team just wont happen I think.
Limerick have the bit between their teeth and have the best subs bench in the game.
We caught them cold in Limerick this year, I really dont expect that to happen again, especially in Croker.
Odds wise I can see the interest but I wont be on, but I'd be delighted if it comes in:D

As another Corkman, I agree entirely. Beating Kk, Lk and Tipp isn't on for this Cork team. Be the best ever All Ireland if it happens.

Same As

Same As wrote: »

Mulvihill Selections 30/6/2019:


Over 25.5 Kilkenny points (Kilkenny vs Wexford)
2pts Evens Paddy Power -2

Kilkenny to win by four, five or six points (Kilkenny vs Wexford)
1pt 4-1 Paddy Power -1

Limerick +1 (Kilkenny vs Wexford)
3pts 8-11 Paddy Power +2.18

Mulvihill -0.82 yesterday.

Current P/L for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #9406)


Jennings: +51.29
Mulvihill: -18.94

Bjwport

mistermiyagi wrote: »

Don't get that logic.
Drew with them twice in the championship last year. No bench was Cork's downfall, that is rectified this year.
Cork have beat them twice this year, in Limerick.
Cork are the only team left who can beat Limerick, it would be 50/50 I think.

Bit lousy from Paddy Power offering a Cork v Kilkenny market and Tipp v Dublin hurling market already, we know that’ll be the 2 QF’s but still

CheltenhamJ

Thought cork are plenty short enough against Laois , 8/15 a bit steep , had it closer to 4/6 , thought the rest were chalked right

LuasSimon

Bjwport wrote: »

Bit lousy from Paddy Power offering a Cork v Kilkenny market and Tipp v Dublin hurling market already, we know that’ll be the 2 QF’s but still

Dublin have a fine dangerous game against Laois , should be winning but will get plenty of it .
Be interested to see how short Dublin are with a view to backing Laois on the handicap .

mountgomery burns

I don't think they'll win the all Ireland but in terms of teams being the wrong odds it's Wexford. 7/1 having not lost a game yet, to win two games where Cork are less than that and will have an extra game plus the all Ireland champions to beat most likely.

Doesn't make any sense

Bjwport

Guys does anybody think the Séamus Callanan all star is nearly at the buying money stage yet? If they were to get to a semi final and not win would he have enough done? (Nearly like John Conlon last year) 11/10 at the moment, considering putting the proverbial underpants on him

RIALTO1

I think the 12/1 EW on Tyrone for the AI offers some value. It’s 1/3 the odds first 2, so effectively getting 4/1 on them to make the final.

Purely on an odds basis, they are currently odds on to make the semi-final (between 5/6 and 4/6), so let’s call the true odds evens. On that basis, 4/1 is giving you 6/4 about them qualifying from the semi-final. They would then most likely face Kerry or Donegal (would be favs against anyone else, and arguably even against Kerry). In the name the finalist market, PP go 10/3 about Dublin/Kerry or Dublin/Donegal, and 7/2 about Dublin/Tyrone. Which suggests Donegal or Kerry would be marginal favourites, let’s say 10/11 vs 11/10 in a 100% book. So the 6/4 looks good.

PP offer 4/1 on them to make the final, where they are 3/1 with Boils. Also interesting that they are shorter in the name the finalist market (as above 7/2 to meet Dublin) than to qualify or on the EW part of the 12/1.

What makes the outright market more appealing is you get the 4/1 to reach the final, and are then left with a 12/1 about them lifting the cup. The 4/1 may appeal more if you didn’t want to have half your stake on them to actually win, but a decent bank will mean you can lay off at that point – not sure what price they would be to win outright in a final vs Dublin, but wouldn’t be a 12/1 shot.

Opinions welcome

iluvfatfrogs

I'm liking M. Murphy for POTY.

If Donegal can top the Super 8 group ( which I think they will), they won't meet Dublin until the final. He has been immense so far this year and I can see it continuing.

The obvious caveat being Dublin will prob win it. I think Dublin are even more of a team unit this year more than ever and considering they twice lost out the POTY while winning the AI, I think there is a chance it could happen again this year.

Boylesports have him @6/1 while he's till available in PP @14/1.

(If you can get a double with Clifford for YPOTY, I'd back that too)

mickmackmcgoo

Bjwport wrote:

Guys does anybody think the Séamus Callanan all star is nearly at the buying money stage yet? If they were to get to a semi final and not win would he have enough done? (Nearly like John Conlon last year) 11/10 at the moment, considering putting the proverbial underpants on him

If they get to the final you're on a winner. Gillane and Rory o Connor must be close at the moment too.

Bjwport

mickmackmcgoo wrote: »

If they get to the final you're on a winner. Gillane and Rory o Connor must be close at the moment too.

Yeah man just thinking semi finalists usually get 2 so himself and Paudie could be nearly there as it is

Danick

Bjwport wrote: »

Guys does anybody think the Séamus Callanan all star is nearly at the buying money stage yet? If they were to get to a semi final and not win would he have enough done? (Nearly like John Conlon last year) 11/10 at the moment, considering putting the proverbial underpants on him

The question is will Sheedy and his team mates do enough to supply him with ball - I'm a neutral fan - but I felt sorry for him on Sunday - aimless high balls into the forwards for the entire match - why didn't Sheedy change tactics - he was 1 goal from 2 in terms of the chances he got - it must be horrific when you are that good and playing in a team that don't supply you with enough ball.

robbiezero

All Stars are probably picked mostly from here on in, so it will depend how far Tipp get, I'd say they would probably need to get to the final for him to get picked as the full-forward line is has a fair few candidates.
Apart from the obvious of Gillane and Rory O'Connor from the current semi-finalists:

If Cork beat KK and get to a semi-final Horgan and Cadogan might come into the reckoning.
Casey from Limerick wont be far off.
Mullen of KK if they were to beat Cork.
John McGrath of Tipp was having a great year also up until Sunday where he was very poor.

mistermiyagi

RIALTO1 wrote: »

In the name the finalist market, PP go 10/3 about Dublin/Kerry or Dublin/Donegal, and 7/2 about Dublin/Tyrone. Which suggests Donegal or Kerry would be marginal favourites, let’s say 10/11 vs 11/10 in a 100% book. So the 6/4 looks good.

PP offer 4/1 on them to make the final, where they are 3/1 with Boils.

Opinions welcome

Fair assessment.
So let's get this right, PP go 4-1 to get to the final, but only 7-2 for a Tyrone-Dub final. That doesn't add up!

Hulk Hands

RIALTO1 wrote: »

I think the 12/1 EW on Tyrone for the AI offers some value. It’s 1/3 the odds first 2, so effectively getting 4/1 on them to make the final.

Purely on an odds basis, they are currently odds on to make the semi-final (between 5/6 and 4/6), so let’s call the true odds evens. On that basis, 4/1 is giving you 6/4 about them qualifying from the semi-final. They would then most likely face Kerry or Donegal (would be favs against anyone else, and arguably even against Kerry). In the name the finalist market, PP go 10/3 about Dublin/Kerry or Dublin/Donegal, and 7/2 about Dublin/Tyrone. Which suggests Donegal or Kerry would be marginal favourites, let’s say 10/11 vs 11/10 in a 100% book. So the 6/4 looks good.

PP offer 4/1 on them to make the final, where they are 3/1 with Boils. Also interesting that they are shorter in the name the finalist market (as above 7/2 to meet Dublin) than to qualify or on the EW part of the 12/1.

What makes the outright market more appealing is you get the 4/1 to reach the final, and are then left with a 12/1 about them lifting the cup. The 4/1 may appeal more if you didn’t want to have half your stake on them to actually win, but a decent bank will mean you can lay off at that point – not sure what price they would be to win outright in a final vs Dublin, but wouldn’t be a 12/1 shot.

Opinions welcome

If Kerry topped a super 8s group and met Tyrone, TY be 7/4, not favs. The overall thinking is decent but your almost certainly losing EV on the win part. Ty were 13/2 to lift the trophy in the final alone last year. Here's how you calculate the place part:

Two scenarios. Add the price to beat Cavan to both, say 1.28. Add finishing top over Dub, Ros, Cork to one and finishing second to the other. Say 7.0 and 2.0 respectively. First scenario, finished top, meet say Donegal, prob be 1.95 in the semi. Other scenario, second Vs Kerry, be 2.75. Multiple 1.28x7x1.95=17.4. 1.28x2x2.75=7.0. Dutch 17.4 and 7.0, equals 5.0.

So exactly 4/1 really, no margin gained or lost

mistermiyagi

Bjwport wrote: »

Guys does anybody think the Séamus Callanan all star is nearly at the buying money stage yet? If they were to get to a semi final and not win would he have enough done? (Nearly like John Conlon last year) 11/10 at the moment, considering putting the proverbial underpants on him

As another poster said, all stars are predominantly handed out from now, and I reckon if Tipp lost to Wex in a semi would be struggling for an all star.
I'd rather be a backer than a layer but i wouldn't say there's much juice in the price, esp if u would have to sweat 3 months for it if was in the balance.

RIALTO1

mistermiyagi wrote: »

Fair assessment.
So let's get this right, PP go 4-1 to get to the final, but only 7-2 for a Tyrone-Dub final. That doesn't add up!

Yep, probably points to the higher margin they are taking on that market.

RIALTO1

Hulk Hands wrote: »

If Kerry topped a super 8s group and met Tyrone, TY be 7/4, not favs. The overall thinking is decent but your almost certainly losing EV on the win part. Ty were 13/2 to lift the trophy in the final alone last year. Here's how you calculate the place part:

Two scenarios. Add the price to beat Cavan to both, say 1.28. Add finishing top over Dub, Ros, Cork to one and finishing second to the other. Say 7.0 and 2.0 respectively. First scenario, finished top, meet say Donegal, prob be 1.95 in the semi. Other scenario, second Vs Kerry, be 2.75. Multiple 1.28x7x1.95=17.4. 1.28x2x2.75=7.0. Dutch 17.4 and 7.0, equals 5.0.

So exactly 4/1 really, no margin gained or lost

Cheers, nice sums, but are they not limited by assuming Kerry and Donegal come out of that group, and in that order? If Donegal won it, you would be looking at 1.28x2x.2.75, say Tyrone win & Mayo come 2nd then 1.28x7x1.8? Hence taking evens on them to make a semi seems a fair true odds assumption (again 4/6-5/6 with the books).

And do you really think Tyrone would be 7/4 to qualify (not to win in 70 mins) against Kerry in a semi? Obviously depends on how impressive each team is, but I would have them slight dogs at worse against Kerry or Donegal, and favs against anyone else.

Re; the outright win part, if Tyrone were 13/2 to lift the cup last year, then assume you could lay at 8 or 9/1 on BF? So lay half your outright stake back at say 9s, gives you your 4/1 a place, and half stake @15/1 for them to lift he cup.

Hulk Hands

RIALTO1 wrote: »

Cheers, nice sums, but are they not limited by assuming Kerry and Donegal come out of that group, and in that order? If Donegal won it, you would be looking at 1.28x2x.2.75, say Tyrone win & Mayo come 2nd then 1.28x7x1.8? Hence taking evens on them to make a semi seems a fair true odds assumption (again 4/6-5/6 with the books).

Yeah theyre def limited, Ive just done it shorthand for the purposes of a quick post. You need excel to get it exact, but in any case the diff between price when Donegal coming second or Gal/Mayo is not huge. Your prices there look right

RIALTO1 wrote: »

And do you really think Tyrone would be 7/4 to qualify (not to win in 70 mins) against Kerry in a semi? Obviously depends on how impressive each team is, but I would have them slight dogs at worse against Kerry or Donegal, and favs against anyone else.

I think they'd be 7/4 to qualify against either Kerry or Donegal in that scenario yeah. Kerry or Donegal have topped a tough group in that case, Ty have been beaten by Dublin again, and there is already a gap between KY/DGL and TY are rated currently, so it would only widen. They'd be favs over anyone in the unlikely event they topped group 2 over Dublin, but would be slight underdogs against Gal/Mayo if one of those topped group 1 and TY finished second in G2.

RIALTO1 wrote: »

Re; the outright win part, if Tyrone were 13/2 to lift the cup last year, then assume you could lay at 8 or 9/1 on BF? So lay half your outright stake back at say 9s, gives you your 4/1 a place, and half stake @15/1 for them to lift he cup.

Nah, was 13/2 to back/lay on BF, was referring to the 100% price. If theyre 4s to reach a final, and that final if they reach it is 1/3 to be vs Dublin, you're not getting value with 12s when they'll still be 6/1 on the day vs Dub, and probably big outsiders vs anyone else too (the team they meet would likely have beaten Dub in the other semi)

RIALTO1

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Yeah theyre def limited, Ive just done it shorthand for the purposes of a quick post. You need excel to get it exact, but in any case the diff between price when Donegal coming second or Gal/Mayo is not huge. Your prices there look right




I think they'd be 7/4 to qualify against either Kerry or Donegal in that scenario yeah. Kerry or Donegal have topped a tough group in that case, Ty have been beaten by Dublin again, and there is already a gap between KY/DGL and TY are rated currently, so it would only widen. They'd be favs over anyone in the unlikely event they topped group 2 over Dublin, but would be slight underdogs against Gal/Mayo if one of those topped group 1 and TY finished second in G2.



Nah, was 13/2 to back/lay on BF, was referring to the 100% price. If theyre 4s to reach a final, and that final if they reach it is 1/3 to be vs Dublin, you're not getting value with 12s when they'll still be 6/1 on the day vs Dub, and probably big outsiders vs anyone else too (the team they meet would likely have beaten Dub in the other semi)

Cheers, appreciate the input. Sounds like our ratings of TY differ somewhat. Just to point back to the albeit limited evidence of the name the finalist markets, it's 10/3 Dublin V Kerry/Donegal, and 7/2 Dublin V Tyrone. That's more in sync with my ratings of Tyrone against the other 2. Also likely that the Dubs have topped the group by the time they go to Omagh, and potentially Tyrone already qualified, so could be shadow boxing rather that a momentum killer for TY.

Take the point on the outright that you are risking half your stake on them getting there before being able to trade out. I'm going to have a cut at the 4/1 to qualify, and hopefully be checking back in early-August and see who was closer on the semi-final prices.

Hulk Hands

The thing about those markets, we've probably done more work there in 5 mins writing out posts than people would at revising those markets. They dont turnover anything so no attention is paid to them. If you like Tyrone more than consensus then the 4/1 is a fair price

franglan

Interesting work all. That first game away to Roscommon is absolutely massive. Tyrone will have been on the road for 4 weeks in a row is it at that point. Will be interesting to see odds for that game. Would have them at round 4/6 for the win. Time will tell!

munster87

Liking McCaffrey footballer of the year at 12/1

Loafing Oaf

iluvfatfrogs wrote: »

he's till available in PP @14/1.

Got on this today, along with Cathal McShane (as Tyrone's top man) @ 25s.