Fresh start

Nulty

Another go at the tipping game. Last one incredibly went 0/50. No one could pick that many losers in a row if they tried! Fresh start though and hopefully I wont be cursed as I was with the other thread :mad:

x PyRo

I'll say a few prayers.

Best of luck mate.

Goalkeeper.

Good luck with the log mate!

Are you betting on football, or horses, or something else?

Nulty

Ascot 4.30

Vainglory

The race has no front runners. Greylami needs to be behind chasing a strong pace which he's unlikely to find here. The two most likely to take it up are Vainglory and Sand Skier. Although the 3yo are weighted to win this due to the time of year, Vainglory has been running as well as he has ever been and judging by his last two efforts where he was out paced at the 4f mark, he stayed on very well over 9f. He's never won over 10f but Simcock has been flush with winners lately and will have placed this one carefully. Its interesting also that he isn't placed instead in the 8f race later on the card(its a class 4! But theres a class 2 for 20k on the card on Saturday over a mile). At 9/1 he seems over priced - Greylami should be the outsider at least.

1pt win @ 9/1 PP

Nulty

Goalkeeper. wrote: »

Good luck with the log mate!

Are you betting on football, or horses, or something else?

Racing as always. If I'm gonna have a bet in anyother sport I'll probably chuck it in with the rest of the banter. This thread is for the "Sport of Kings"

:cool:

And Pyro, you'll have to share that magic potion with the rest of us sometime

x PyRo

Nulty wrote: »

And Pyro, you'll have to share that magic potion with the rest of us sometime

Saying goodbye to having an outside life would be a good start man. :pac:

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

Saying goodbye to having an outside life would be a good start man. :pac:

Jaysus, if I had one of them I wouldn't have started the thread!:p

And by the way if anyone wants to come in and say how stupid my selection is or if they agree your welcome! Be nice though and do it before the result!

UrbanSea

Good luck sir,I see you tipped Vainglory,I have Breakheart backed.

Nulty

Yeah, he got whomped. poor selection tbh. Hanovarian Baron did it well. More to come by the looks of things

Gonna have to tighten up the selections before this goes the way the last one did.

UrbanSea

I didn't even see the race. I hate to see the following phrase describing the horse you backed
'Just failed'

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

I didn't even see the race. I hate to see the following phrase describing the horse you backed
'Just failed'

:pac:

Brilliant description! Just wasn't good enough in all honesty. Well beaten.

Nulty

Ascot 4.25

Workforce 5pts Win (non-ante post)

Difficult to see past the Derby winner. 3yos have a relatively poor record in the race lately but only one horse holds the course record at Epsom. The form doesn't matter as much in that he wasn't in a race. The form of the race he was in is almost irrelavant to his prospects. The Dante is irrelavent also, statistics blown, performance enhance 100 fold. Ryan Moore is totally confident of Workforces superiority and his trainer has given him plenty of time to recover from the Derby. The field down to just 6 now, theres another G1 winner he doesn't have to worry about. The only thing that actually can beat him is himself. If he runs to Epsom form, with the age allowance - he wins.

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

:pac:

Brilliant description! Just wasn't good enough in all honesty. Well beaten.

Haha,that was the phrase that I saw attached to Breakheart that I had backed.
Good luck with Workforce,I was going to lump on it,but I'm not so sure now. He should win it but with Stoute in such poor form I'd rather just watch it at this stage.

Nulty

Ascot 3.50

Himalya 3pts @ 12/1

Excellent efforts in big handicaps so far this year. He's gone up 3lbs for the 2nd in the Buckingham stakes but that doesn't worry me because he has so much class. He deserves a win in these types of events and he is a horse that wants to win. He won't have Treadwell to worry about this time, hes going to Goodwood. If things fall right for Himalya he will get his head in front. No problem with the stable form and Ryan Moore in the saddle should be a plus.

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

Haha,that was the phrase that I saw attached to Breakheart that I had backed.
Good luck with Workforce,I was going to lump on it,but I'm not so sure now. He should win it but with Stoute in such poor form I'd rather just watch it at this stage.

Oh right! I'd hate to see the description they gave Vainglory then

I see where your coming from with the Stoute form. I've never heard of any G1 defeats being attributed to trainer form before though to be honest. When a horse looks this good its rare that everything is right, the horse loses and the only thing that you can point to is the trainer form. It had better not happen tomorrow!

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Oh right! I'd hate to see the description they gave Vainglory then

I see where your coming from with the Stoute form. I've never heard of any G1 defeats being attributed to trainer form before though to be honest. When a horse looks this good its rare that everything is right, the horse loses and the only thing that you can point to is the trainer form. It had better not happen tomorrow!

Found it
tracked leading pair, outpaced and pushed along 3f out, ridden and hung right 2f out, soon no chance with leading trio, weakened to 4th over 1f out

Haha,ya I suppose you're right. But I also thought Spanish Moon was nailed on there last week and he got beat,and I would have said that is a much weaker field,and going by form it should have had it hands down. I think Cape Blanco might be a sly challenger,but I'd still go with Workforce,just not going to back it.

Nulty

York 3.05

Monitor Closely 1pt win @ 11/2

First time up this season and first start for Michael Bell. His 3rd in the St. Leger shows he's got plenty of class. The trip is a bit short considering his performance in that race but he has run well on seasonal debuts. I'm opposing Dubussy because I think he want it softer than he'll get at York. He's not consistent enough to bet confidently although he has enough class to have ever chance, hes just too unreliable. The Godolphin runner also have the class to win this but consistency is an issue there too. Meydan form hasn't transfered to the British season. Monitor Closely looks worth taking a chance on with course form and by Oasis Dream has the speed in the pedigree to win at 10f. He should have developed again since his 3yo season and is a reasonable price at 11/2. Bushman is on a roll and should go well for a stable in form.

UrbanSea

Like yesterday I see we have the same race just different horses :P

Nulty

You have Debussy? I backed him at Chester cause he was 12/1 and the ground was just right for him. He definitely has a chance. Betting suggests he'll win!

One of us had better win

UrbanSea

****

Nulty

Monitor Closely clearly wasn't ready for the race and Debussy didn't have conditions in favour. No suprise with Bushman.

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Monitor Closely clearly wasn't ready for the race and Debussy didn't have conditions in favour. No suprise with Bushman.

William Buick dropping his whip wouldn't have helped. Monitor Closely got really well backed before the off. I won't back Martin Bell's horses lately,stable isn't going well,many horses I feel that should run well have been running horribly.

Nulty

Bank -10pts

Nulty

Pontefract 3.50

Harrison George 3pts Win @ 11/2 Paddy Power

I thought Surour would have the beating of this horse on easy ground but HG put him well in his place. Surour was a good 5th in the International Stakes today beaten 2l without the easiest of passages. HG goes on any ground and should be feared coming into this race. He is on a winning run apart from a poor run at Epsom which can be forgiven because he was very keen and fighting for his head. He is from the Fahey yard who are always worth following these days and Hanagan is up in the plate. He has won on his only visit to Pontefract which was at this distance. Zacinto is too short for a horse racing well below par. Rio De La Plata it seems to me has the same chance as Harrison George but is priced 5/2. He may return to his 2yo potential but he is trying to build the momentum that Harrison George has right now. Mabait has to be considered too. He beat HG at Epsom that day and is maybe worth a saver at 8/1.

I saw 11/2 and thought that was a really good price, mainly because Zacinto is not as likely to win as the betting suggests. He's just too short. Plus - I got burned with an Even money shot today :P

Nulty

Ascot 5.10

Judge n' Jury 1pt ew @ 16/1 Generally

Winner of this race last year off 1lb lower. Ascot form is very important when revisiting the track and his figures show 1324 - never out of the first four at Ascot. He's been disappointing so far this year but the yrad has a good strike rate and return at ascot. Slightly speculative as he needs to step up on his last efforts but could very well fill the frame at a decent price in a tricky race.

Heres going for -15pts

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Pontefract 3.50

Harrison George 3pts Win @ 11/2 Paddy Power

I thought Surour would have the beating of this horse on easy ground but HG put him well in his place. Surour was a good 5th in the International Stakes today beaten 2l without the easiest of passages. HG goes on any ground and should be feared coming into this race. He is on a winning run apart from a poor run at Epsom which can be forgiven because he was very keen and fighting for his head. He is from the Fahey yard who are always worth following these days and Hanagan is up in the plate. He has won on his only visit to Pontefract which was at this distance. Zacinto is too short for a horse racing well below par. Rio De La Plata it seems to me has the same chance as Harrison George but is priced 5/2. He may return to his 2yo potential but he is trying to build the momentum that Harrison George has right now. Mabait has to be considered too. He beat HG at Epsom that day and is maybe worth a saver at 8/1.

I saw 11/2 and thought that was a really good price, mainly because Zacinto is not as likely to win as the betting suggests. He's just too short. Plus - I got burned with an Even money shot today :P

Have to disagree with you there Nulty. Rio De La Plata won a group 1 last week,Harrison George isn't a group horse.
I don't mean to be saying it now after the race,just didn't see it earlier. I still thought Zacinto would have been good enough to win it,but something seriously amiss in the stable. An odds on horse beaten in the last too for Stoute.

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

Have to disagree with you there Nulty. Rio De La Plata won a group 1 last week,Harrison George isn't a group horse.
I don't mean to be saying it now after the race,just didn't see it earlier. I still thought Zacinto would have been good enough to win it,but something seriously amiss in the stable. An odds on horse beaten in the last too for Stoute.

It wasn't a group one, I think it was a class 3 stakes race. He won a G1 as a two year old AFAIK. Hes on the comeback trail right now after some disappointing performances. Last weeks win has kick started some progress but I certainly wouldn't be tipping anything against a G1 winner LTO in a Listed race when it wasn't running under a penalty - which it certainly would be.

EDIT
Class 2 Conditions stakes where he beat a Listed/Handicapper by a little under 2 lengths at level weights. Isn't that what Harrison George achieved last time out too?

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

It wasn't a group one, I think it was a class 3 stakes race. He won a G1 as a two year old AFAIK. Hes on the comeback trail right now after some disappointing performances. Last weeks win has kick started some progress but I certainly wouldn't be tipping anything against a G1 winner LTO in a Listed race when it wasn't running under a penalty - which it certainly would be.

EDIT
Class 2 Conditions stakes where he beat a Listed/Handicapper by a little under 2 lengths at level weights. Isn't that what Harrison George achieved last time out too?

Sorry Nulty I must be thinking of the wrong horse,must have been Campanologist. It was in Hamburg.

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

Sorry Nulty I must be thinking of the wrong horse,must have been Campanologist. It was in Hamburg.

I just wish I had taken my own advice and made a saver bet on Mabait @ 8/1!

You know when you look at a race and you say "Thats my selection, and thats the danger." I tend to, and think many others do too, go through stages of picking the wrong one. You know? The selectiondanger wins and the dangerselection finishes anywhere you like. I'm definitely going through on of those.

Interestingly, I would loved to have known Buzzword was in the German Derby - I backed him ew at Epsom. I liked Bekherbad in France recently and today Irish Field in the juvenile race a Maison-Laffitte. Not because its Irish Field, I watched the race he lost to Keritaya and hes by Dubawi.
Foreign races have given me heartbreak recently :P

Watch Dubawis, if theres one thing you need to know - watch for Dubawi horses

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

I just wish I had taken my own advice and made a saver bet on Mabait @ 8/1!

You know when you look at a race and you say "Thats my selection, and thats the danger." I tend to, and think many others do too, go through stages of picking the wrong one. You know? The selection wins and the danger finishes anywhere you like. I'm definitely going through on of those.

Interestingly, I would loved to have known Buzzword was in the German Derby - I backed him ew at Epsom. I liked Bekherbad in France recently and today Irish Field in the juvenile race a Maison-Laffitte. Not because its Irish Field, I watched the race he lost to Keritaya and hes by Dubawi.
Foreign races have given me heartbreak recently :P

Watch Dubawis, if theres one thing you need to know - watch for Dubawi horses

I was absolutely raging the other day. Brian Meehan had a runner in a maiden on Friday,a first time out runner called Titus Mills,by Dubawi. The favourite was an odds on Hannon horse and I fancied that one each way. Looked at the RP and said the projected SP was 4/1,thought it was too short so didn't even check the price. Won at 16/1

Nulty

Yarmouth 2.15

Black Baccara 2pts Win @ 7/2 Paddy Power

Came back to form last time when returned to sprint distances here at Yarmouth. The main dangers are Punching and Pockets Pick who are unfavourably drawn in stalls 1 and 2 respectively. Black Baccara did well in her last race here out of stall 4 and gets stall 7 today. The best drawn at a track that favours the high draw on good ground gets the pick. Its kind of surprising shes not favorite but the price is a stand out and is likely to run a good race with conditions in her favour