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e/w against the favourite log

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    #122
    POINTBREAK
    Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    Somebody doesn't fancy him to be placed 5/4 a place now



    13/2 to 7/2 with the bookies and a drifter out to 2.38 in the place market. That is strange.


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    #123
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Didn't place so bullet dodged.


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    #124
    POINTBREAK
    Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    Medici Palace in the 18:30 at Beverley. 9/2 looks a possible, but the only bookies showing 9/2 now are ones that I don't have an account with.

    No bet............... very little value.


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    #125
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Maybes?

    2:10 MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES 6f (NEWC) Mysterious Bounty & Anddante
    3:40 HANDICAP (0-60) 1m 1f 209yds (BRIG) Noah Jameel


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    #126
    POINTBREAK
    Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    mike65 wrote: »
    Maybes?

    2:10 MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES 6f (NEWC) Mysterious Bounty & Anddante
    3:40 HANDICAP (0-60) 1m 1f 209yds (BRIG) Noah Jameel

    I had a look at the 2.10 http://tipsterform.com/ev/
    Another bullet dodged...

    My value bet Number 2 is in the 3-40 Brighton.


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    #127
    Moro Man
    Registered Users Posts: 253 ✭✭Moro Man


    POINTBREAK wrote: »
    I had a look at Vilnius but its evens to be placed on BF, so no value for me.
    POINTBREAK wrote: »
    Somebody doesn't fancy him to be placed 5/4 a place now



    13/2 to 7/2 with the bookies and a drifter out to 2.38 in the place market. That is strange.

    You missed that fact that Fallon had ridden the previous 4 winners and the bookies probably had accums and yankees etc etc riding on the horse.

    He had a bad draw and could not win.


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    #128
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,008 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    I'm away at the moment, but when I get back to the house I'm gonna do up an excel sheet to calculate all these odds for us and post it up for all to use. How many races should I allow for and horses per race?


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    #129
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,008 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    Here's what I've come up with lads, You just need to enter horse name/number, betfair win and place price, bookie price and whether it's 1/4 or 1/5 of the odds for a place in the bookies and it should do the rest, if I've worked everything out correctly. I've attached two excel files, I'm not so sure it works as intended in Excel 2003.

    Any comments, questions or suggestions would be greatly appreciated (I know it looks ugly as hell!), I've made up some bookie prices there just for an example of how it works.


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    #130
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    L'prof wrote: »
    Here's what I've come up with lads, You just need to enter horse name/number, betfair win and place price, bookie price and whether it's 1/4 or 1/5 of the odds for a place in the bookies and it should do the rest, if I've worked everything out correctly. I've attached two excel files, I'm not so sure it works as intended in Excel 2003.

    Any comments, questions or suggestions would be greatly appreciated (I know it looks ugly as hell!), I've made up some bookie prices there just for an example of how it works.
    Okay, that's coming up as a load of gobbledygook on my Excel 2003. Can you take a look at post no. 94 on here and see if mine's okay and could I add anything to it?


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    #131
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,008 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    Verance wrote: »
    Okay, that's coming up as a load of gobbledygook on my Excel 2003. Can you take a look at post no. 94 on here and see if mine's okay and could I add anything to it?

    I'll edit the 2003 file and re-upload it. How about now?


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    #132
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    Oh yeah, I gets ya now! Looking good... I'll stick to mine though, it's sleeker ;)


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    #133
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,008 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    Verance wrote: »
    Oh yeah, I gets ya now! Looking good... I'll stick to mine though, it's sleeker ;)

    It doesn't do as much ;) Do you get the same figures?


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    #134
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    Yeah, same results... I might add in that price needed for 10% column, should be handy as prices can change quickly...


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    #135
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,008 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    Verance wrote: »
    Yeah, same results... I might add in that price needed for 10% column, should be handy as prices can change quickly...

    So can the Betfair prices!


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    #136
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    Looks loke there's a few small value races today, nothing massive. The top three in the 2.55 Newmarket are small value, looks like it'll be 60/1ish bar 3 on betfair in the win market..
    A few small value races then, better than the last few quiet days :)


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    #137
    POINTBREAK
    Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    2.55 Newmarket I think is the one you mean. I can't see any value in it myself.
    What's your thinking on it?


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    #138
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    Ha the 3 favs! :) Bunce and Swiss Dream around 6-8% advantage atm but one might get bigger in the show, hopefully...


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    #139
    POINTBREAK
    Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    http://tipsterform.com/ev/

    2.00 Fontwell


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    #140
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    Hmm, I'll wait and hope it drifts, 11s on the exchanges so it might...


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    #141
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    Saddlewood in the 2.00 is Massive value at 11s and pretty good at 10s too... 28% at 11s :)


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    #142
    POINTBREAK
    Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    Verance wrote: »
    Saddlewood in the 2.00 is Massive value at 11s and pretty good at 10s too... 28% at 11s :)

    There's a non runner.


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    #143
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    Still 11s with Bet365 and the NR was taken, is it a mistake?


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    #144
    POINTBREAK
    Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    Verance wrote: »
    Still 11s with Bet365 and the NR was taken, is it a mistake?

    11 is huge if you can get it. I don't have an account with them.

    7's now........


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    #145
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    POINTBREAK wrote: »
    11 is huge if you can get it. I don't have an account with them.

    7's now........
    Yup, got it :) Weird market by Bet365, they were only 9s on Crimson Canyon when it was 25s on Betfair... They've all gone to on-course prices now..


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    #146
    POINTBREAK
    Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    POINTBREAK wrote: »
    http://tipsterform.com/ev/

    2.00 Fontwell

    3rd 7/1


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    #147
    POINTBREAK
    Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    Value bet 5 wins at 9/2

    http://tipsterform.com/ev/


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    #148
    Juwwi
    Registered Users Posts: 4,244 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    did any1 catch this race today.?

    l missed it :(

    http://racing.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,377152,00.html


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    #149
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    I got it :) backed Stentorian and Windward Islands. I'll try to update the thread if I spot any in the future.


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    #150
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    Hey where did that go?? Merjaan in the 3.30 Wolves looks good for anyone with a Bet365 or Will Hill account, around 25-30% advantage.


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    #151
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    The Sussex (3.25) is the mother of all bad each way races! With some bookies going 1/4 odds for place, every runner has positive expected value!! We're looking at over 40% advantage on Beethoven, Maclove and Dream Eater :) Whatever you're backing, do it each way! Only sting in the tail will be a withdrawal so best wait until near the off.


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