e/w against the favourite log

POINTBREAK · 18-05-2010 11:01am

mike65 wrote: »

4:10 Musselburgh is a 6 horse race. Couldn't have that!

It depends. We are looking at it from 2 different viewpoints.
I'm looking at the way the race is priced up to see if there is a mathematical value bet, then I have a look at the stats and then I will look at the form last.
I think you are maybe more form orientated?

mike65 · 18-05-2010 11:09am

Well it may work from a theoretical mathamatical POV, unless it finishes third. Is Mrs Mogg your pick? 6/1 pp

POINTBREAK · 18-05-2010 11:25am

mike65 wrote: »

Well it may work from a theoretical mathamatical POV, unless it finishes third. Is Mrs Mogg your pick? 6/1 pp

I haven't picked anything yet. When the markets get going if there is a 6/1 that is odds on in the place market or a 3/1 that is 1/2 to be placed that's the first thing I will be looking at. Then its a matter of deciding if backing a 50/100 is good enough value at 75/100 (3/1 at 1/4 odds)
I had a look at Adrian Massey and the top stables and top jockeys do a lot better than the rest. I suppose that's pretty obvious. Firm Ground and Female horses drag the stats down significantly, but I don't know if the layers are taking all that into consideration. Some top stables have a strike rate of over 90% with their horses that start at worse than 1/2 so I don't think its worth opposing them with a 2nd fav.

Moro Man · 18-05-2010 12:23pm

I've been punting along these lines for years. I normally have a few refinements that I would use for finding bets.

1. No unraced horses.

2. No bets in handicaps.

3. Avoid races with 12+ runners.

Generally on betfair the place only market will reflect the above 3 situations

I also check the place only markets with the bookmakers. Powers have it for every race. It certainly wouldn't be a competitive as the betfair market but it is displayed in their shops.

Bookmakers hate laying each way at around 7/2 when the fav is 1/3. On average the Powers place only market will have the 7/2 shot at 1/8 or 1/9.

Personally I find the all weather the best medium for this. Especially in maidens / claimers as the races are not that competitive with alot of deadwood in them and the form seems to hold up. Just don't mix and match Southwell form with the other two as horses that have run well at Wolverhampton / Lingfield generally do not perform at Southwell. A lot of trainers will run horses two or three times at Southwell where they will finish last due to hating the surface and then pop them back into a claimer where they are well in but the racing post comment will say out of form and they are generously priced up, backed off the boards and romp home, Heathyards Pride yesterday was the latest example

POINTBREAK · 18-05-2010 12:39pm

Interesting Moro Man I don't agree with your points 2 and 3 though.

Moro Man · 18-05-2010 1:16pm

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Interesting Moro Man I don't agree with your points 2 and 3 though.

Its just from experience handicaps can be a bit too competitive and horses can get run out of the places quite easily, and similarly in maidens with 13 / 14 runners horses from top stables might not be fancied but they can run on for a place and knock you back to 4th or 5th

In an ideal world I wish all races were like this one

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499148&r_date=2010-03-05&popup=yes

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Doncaster Result
05 Mar 2010
« 3:10 » E B F SPORTINGBET.COM MARES' "NATIONAL HUNT" NOVICES' HURDLE (QUALIFIER)
(Class 4) (4yo+) (2m3f110y) 2m3½f Good 10 hdles
£3,577.75, £1,050.50, £525.25, £262.35

WATCH RACE - 20p
RESULTRATE RACE
Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 Diavoleria 33/1 7 11-5 M W Easterby 96 * * »
Denis O'Regan

« 2 1 Alegralil 5/6F 5 11-12 D McCain Jnr 129 * * »
A P McCoy

« 3 nk Diklers Oscar (IRE) 5/4 7 11-5 K G Reveley 120 * * »
James Reveley

« 4 38 Aega 80/1 5 10-7 N B King — * * »
Alex Merriam5

« 5 7 Hi Ho Silvia 100/1 5 10-12 N B King — * *
Tom Messenger

« 6 nse Karingreason 28/1 7 11-2 K G Reveley 109 * * »
Michael Naughton3

« 7 10 Morello Mist 150/1 5 10-12 Mrs S J Smith — * *
Tjade Collier

« 8 1¼ Queen Octavia 100/1 5 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies — * * »
Tom Molloy3

POINTBREAK · 18-05-2010 1:38pm

The 33/1 and the 28/1 each way I assume?

Moro Man · 18-05-2010 1:40pm

POINTBREAK wrote: »

The 33/1 and the 28/1 each way I assume?

All six of them...... for a small profit:eek:

L'prof · 18-05-2010 1:44pm

POINTBREAK wrote: »

hmmmmmmmmmmmm I picked 4 races but only one of them matches those?
TipsterForm Positive EV

Hayley Cropper looks excellent value, I might back Peppercorn Rent in that race too. At the current prices, I wouldn't look at the other races to be honest.

POINTBREAK · 18-05-2010 2:21pm

L'prof wrote: »

Hayley Cropper looks excellent value, I might back Peppercorn Rent in that race too. At the current prices, I wouldn't look at the other races to be honest.

Those are just races that may be possibles. The idea is I go through them and show why one is a bet and one isn't. That sort of thing.

L'prof · 18-05-2010 2:26pm

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Those are just races that may be possibles. The idea is I go through them and show why one is a bet and one isn't. That sort of thing.

It's very time consuming isn't it? Worth it in the end I guess.

POINTBREAK · 18-05-2010 2:58pm

L'prof wrote: »

It's very time consuming isn't it? Worth it in the end I guess.

It can be when there is no stand out bet but it really should be worth it in the end............ if mathematics works.......... lol

L'prof · 18-05-2010 3:00pm

POINTBREAK wrote: »

It can be when there is no stand out bet but it really should be worth it in the end............ if mathematics works.......... lol

I could write a program that'll take in all the horses and their prices and work out if it's a value bet or what price they would need to be to be a value bet. I'm going on holidays soon, but maybe when I come back.

POINTBREAK · 18-05-2010 3:19pm

L'prof wrote: »

I could write a program that'll take in all the horses and their prices and work out if it's a value bet or what price they would need to be to be a value bet. I'm going on holidays soon, but maybe when I come back.

That would be interesting.
The one I picked out earlier as a bit of value was Sweet Child O Mine in the 4-00 at Brighton. I missed the 20/1 but have a few quid ew on at 16/1 and there is a wee bit even at that price, but the main reason for backing it is the Pricewise Extra selection is in that race and it is skewing the market so without the volume of money that one attracts I reckon mine would be a LOT shorter.

mike65 · 18-05-2010 6:33pm

mike65 wrote: »

early price possibles

3:20 HANDICAP (0-60) 7f 214yds (BRIG) Eager To Bow 6/1 (1/4 odds) shortened to 11/4 fav 2nd
6:30 MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES 5f (CARL) Choose Wisely 5/1 off at 11/2 wins
4:00 HANDICAP 1m 2f 50y (NOTT) Babycakes 5/1 or Hudoo 9/2 (worth watching the market) 2nd and unplaced
6:10 MAIDEN HURDLE 2m 3f 110yds (TOWC) Like Ice 6/1 off at 11/4 second fav unplaced

todays results.

POINTBREAK · 18-05-2010 9:06pm

Choose Wisely 5/1 off at 11/2 wins

Mike I missed that race. It looks like Choose Wisely became a small value bet by virtue of it drifting?
It was 1.71 (71/100) a place on betfair and if you backed it at 11/2 EW you're getting 11/10 (110/100) that looks a big enough difference ,
BUT I couldn't have backed it because Kevin Ryan's are usually dead when they drift.

Verance · 18-05-2010 9:09pm

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Choose Wisely 5/1 off at 11/2 wins

Mike I missed that race. It looks like Choose Wisely became a small value bet by virtue of it drifting?
It was 1.71 (71/100) a place on betfair and if you backed it at 11/2 EW you're getting 11/10 (110/100) that looks a big enough difference ,
BUT I couldn't have backed it because Kevin Ryan's are usually dead when they drift.

Damn, I missed that one too, looks like we'll have to be tuned in to market movements throughout the day...

POINTBREAK · 18-05-2010 9:27pm

Verance wrote: »

Damn, I missed that one too, looks like we'll have to be tuned in to market movements throughout the day...

Yeah, looks like Mathematics 1 Form and horsey knowledge 0.

mike65 · 18-05-2010 10:51pm

I never doubted it would win

A quick scan through the betfair prices for tomorrow looks more promising.

Nulty · 19-05-2010 1:34am

Moro Man wrote: »

Its just from experience handicaps can be a bit too competitive and horses can get run out of the places quite easily, and similarly in maidens with 13 / 14 runners horses from top stables might not be fancied but they can run on for a place and knock you back to 4th or 5th

In an ideal world I wish all races were like this one

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499148&r_date=2010-03-05&popup=yes

Log in or Register | Help Centre

Doncaster Result
05 Mar 2010
« 3:10 » E B F SPORTINGBET.COM MARES' "NATIONAL HUNT" NOVICES' HURDLE (QUALIFIER)
(Class 4) (4yo+) (2m3f110y) 2m3½f Good 10 hdles
£3,577.75, £1,050.50, £525.25, £262.35

WATCH RACE - 20p
RESULTRATE RACE
Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 Diavoleria 33/1 7 11-5 M W Easterby 96 * * »
Denis O'Regan

« 2 1 Alegralil 5/6F 5 11-12 D McCain Jnr 129 * * »
A P McCoy

« 3 nk Diklers Oscar (IRE) 5/4 7 11-5 K G Reveley 120 * * »
James Reveley

« 4 38 Aega 80/1 5 10-7 N B King — * * »
Alex Merriam5

« 5 7 Hi Ho Silvia 100/1 5 10-12 N B King — * *
Tom Messenger

« 6 nse Karingreason 28/1 7 11-2 K G Reveley 109 * * »
Michael Naughton3

« 7 10 Morello Mist 150/1 5 10-12 Mrs S J Smith — * *
Tjade Collier

« 8 1¼ Queen Octavia 100/1 5 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies — * * »
Tom Molloy3

Noice! I had an each way on the winner...I took the bet at 25s I think and it drifted further to 33s:pac::pac::pac:

Moro Man · 19-05-2010 1:36am

Should have included this in my earlier post and as it hasn't been pointed out since. The value in these bets is that if you are at the track and a race that is framed up 1/3, 7/2, 20s bar with around 9 runners you will NOT get ANY oncourse bookmaker to take any each way bet on the 7/2 shot at 1/5 the odds for the place. The shops have their rules to cover all races and these slip through the net.

There was an article in the Racing Post recently about Wolverhampton and the Racing for Change campaign. It noted that for certain races the each way terms offered were 1/8 and this was only from a few bookmakers. The rest point blankly refused.

Off course bookmakers cannot lay off each way bets with the track bookies, so they cannot change the market. This is why you get the rare occasions ( normally once every 6 months ) like the result posted earlier where you can back 6 horses each way in an 8 runner race and you can't lose. You won't get rich unless of course an outsider wins or one of the fancied horses are unplaced.

I actually caught that race when in a betting shop. Told the other 6 punters in the shop that if they backed the 6 outsiders each way they'd get their money back regardless which one came 3rd.

Not one of them placed the bet I wrote out for them......... 2 backed the fav and another who backed fav 2nd fav straight forecast.

Their excuse "Sure none of them can win!!!!!!!!!!''

Denners · 19-05-2010 1:39am

Well lads, I don't follow this technique but I know you are and the 6:30 at Sedgefield tomorrow seems right up there.

On Betfair its currently, 5/7 fav, 5/1 2nd fav, 8/1 3rd fav, bar 20's and above

You will prob pick up on it yourselfs but just thought i'd let ye know anyway incase

POINTBREAK · 19-05-2010 9:51am

I've got 4 possibles. Positive EV

Wodawick · 19-05-2010 10:32am

I'm having two bets today.....

2.35 Goodwood Jnt Favs 2/1, Pipette 11/2, 10/1 Bar.
(9 Runners)

6.30 Sedgefield Fav 1/2, Barron Watlass 5/1, 3rd Fav 10/1, 12/1 Bar. (11 Runners).

POINTBREAK · 19-05-2010 11:15am

Wodawick wrote: »

I'm having two bets today.....

2.35 Goodwood Jnt Favs 2/1, Pipette 11/2, 10/1 Bar.
(9 Runners)

6.30 Sedgefield Fav 1/2, Barron Watlass 5/1, 3rd Fav 10/1, 12/1 Bar. (11 Runners).

I can't see any value in the 2.35. The prices are all about right at the minute as far as I can see. What one are you backing?

Wodawick · 19-05-2010 11:40am

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I can't see any value in the 2.35. The prices are all about right at the minute as far as I can see. What one are you backing?

Pipette each-way. I'm hamstrung by having to put my bets on early, so I have to make my selections based on the morning prices.

The trouble with this approach was highlighted yesterday in a race in which the morning fav (2/1) ended up with an SP of 5/1 and the winner (10/3) was in the 10/1 Bar category yesterday morning!

Still, I'm only doing this for a bit of fun, for small stakes.

L'prof · 19-05-2010 12:00pm

Wodawick wrote: »

I'm having two bets today.....

2.35 Goodwood Jnt Favs 2/1, Pipette 11/2, 10/1 Bar.
(9 Runners)

6.30 Sedgefield Fav 1/2, Barron Watlass 5/1, 3rd Fav 10/1, 12/1 Bar. (11 Runners).

Barron Watlass and Island Chief look good value, small value in Barbarian, but I won't be backing that. It's a 12 horse race, so that makes me more cautious, but I think I'll go for them two anyway.

Verance · 19-05-2010 12:20pm

I've gone for these:

4.30 Kelso - Balnagore 3/1 and Solis 10/1.
6.30 Sedgefield - Barron Watlass 5/1 (Hard to tell about Island Chief yet...)
6.20 Worcester - Midnight Spirit 5/2

POINTBREAK · 19-05-2010 5:03pm

Verance wrote: »

I've gone for these:

4.30 Kelso - Balnagore 3/1 and Solis 10/1.
6.30 Sedgefield - Barron Watlass 5/1 (Hard to tell about Island Chief yet...)
6.20 Worcester - Midnight Spirit 5/2

I missed the price on Solis and ended up with 6/1 and 3/1 Balnagore. One from one today Positive EV

POINTBREAK · 19-05-2010 5:07pm

Verance wrote: »

I've gone for these:

4.30 Kelso - Balnagore 3/1 and Solis 10/1.
6.30 Sedgefield - Barron Watlass 5/1 (Hard to tell about Island Chief yet...)

6.20 Worcester - Midnight Spirit 5/2

That's a bit tight for me?

e/w against the favourite log

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