e/w against the favourite log

mike65

for clarification this is not an e/w "fancies" thread

This is a value based betting log which springs from an approach used by professional punter known as MUG you can read his rationale here

Essentially the idea is to find the horse thats likely to finish in the places at an e/w price thats too long. He uses betfairs realtime updates, which can also be found on timeform if you want something quick to load.

A few rules have to be observed, the race must start with at least 8 runners
for 3 places to be paid out, anything less and one-third of your target has vanished. For this reason stakes need to be placed just before the off, another reason to wait until as late as possible is that a horse could be withdrawn that competely alters the shape of the market. Loosing a 50/1 won't matter much if 8+ horses stand their ground. A 5/2 shot will, as all the prices at the head of the market shorten dramaticaly. This could mean the horse you have selected is now too short to back e/w.

While MUG uses his sytem as just that, a pure system (he admits to no great knowledge about horse racing itself) we can probably add in our own willingness to trawl the form guides/speed-ratings and suchlike to refine this system and spot horse that might'nt strictly fit the system but are "good shouts".

Anyway I think I have that right. If anyone wants to chip with some more thoughts feel free, this is not my log btw so lets all see if we can find the value

POINTBREAK

I've posted my idea of the positives and negatives in the first 2 races.
Comments are welcome.
http://pricewiseextra.info/ev/

Verance

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I've posted my idea of the positives and negatives in the first 2 races.
Comments are welcome.
http://pricewiseextra.info/ev/

McCoy riding the 4th favourite a negative in the 2.20?

POINTBREAK

Verance wrote: »

McCoy riding the 4th favourite a negative in the 2.20?

I make it a negative for the 2nd and 3rd favourites place chances..........

Verance

Hmmm, I see what you're saying cause he won't give up on the place but I usually like opposing his rides as they're nearly always underpriced so value can be found opposing them.

POINTBREAK

Does Esprit De Fer 4.20 become an automatic bet when it is 10/1 and 2/1 a place and trading at 5/4 a place?
That's where it gets tricky for me. The difference between 5/4 and 2/1 is huge 33.3% v 44.4% but the question is, is 5/4 the true price?

Verance

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Does Esprit De Fer 4.20 become an automatic bet when it is 10/1 and 2/1 a place and trading at 5/4 a place?
That's where it gets tricky for me. The difference between 5/4 and 2/1 is huge 33.3% v 44.4% but the question is, is 5/4 the true price?

I think it's fair to say it is, if you backed every single horse in the last 55,956 races on BF to level stakes, they would have returned 100.6% of your money(without taking commission into account). So, over a long period, BF looks an accurate guide.

On the 4.20, remember you'll be losing out on the win bet as it's 13.5 - 14 on betfair.

POINTBREAK

Verance wrote: »

I think it's fair to say it is, if you backed every single horse in the last 55,956 races on BF to level stakes, they would have returned 100.6% of your money(without taking commission into account). So, over a long period, BF looks an accurate guide.

On the 4.20, remember you'll be losing out on the win bet as it's 13.5 - 14 on betfair.

Thanks. In that case strictly speaking all 3 horses are value bets in the 2.00 and 2.20.

Can you find any stats for the place market?

Verance

Rubipresent wins! Roodolph and Clear Sailing look good in the 2.20.

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Can you find any stats for the place market?

Afraid not but I'd imagine they'd be very similar.

mike65

Clear Sailing @ 11 on BF and Calypso Bay @ 26 BF drifting a bit.

Was a rush of late money for Clear Sailing.

Verance

mike65 wrote: »

Clear Sailing and Calypso Bay drifting a bit.

Roodolph now 1.18 - 1.19 on the exchanges and you can get 1.5 with the bookies... Clear Sailing good value as well, 2.6 with the bookies and 1.8 or thereabouts on BF...

mike65

Clear Sailing 3rd, Calypso Bay nowhere.

POINTBREAK

So in the 2.00 £100 ew wins £360 on the 3/1 winner
In the 2.20 backing both £100 ew you win £2.50..
You could live with that..... lol

its £100 on an 8/5 winner plus £100 on an 85/200.

POINTBREAK

In the 3.55 there is only £4300 matched in the place market and £3000 of it is on Moving On........

POINTBREAK

Esprit de Fer looks a must bet if you stick to the rules of value betting.

Verance

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Esprit de Fer looks a must bet if you stick to the rules of value betting.

Yeah, 2/1 with bookies and around evens on the exchanges!

POINTBREAK

Looked like getting placed and then got swamped. Still, on 4 bets today the ROI was over 20%.

mike65

Todays early possibles

2:00 MAIDEN STAKES (2Y) 5f 161yds (BATH) Byrony 5/1 (now 11/4)
4:20 SELLING HURDLE 2m 3f (NEWT) Mhilu 5/1 (now 9/4 fav due to n/r so looks too short)
6:10 MAIDEN FILLIES ST 5f 10yds (WIND) Melodize 7/1 (now 5/1)
5:40 HANDICAP (0-60) 1m 1f 103yds (WOLV) Celtic Ransom 6/1 (1/4 the odds) (now 9/2)

POINTBREAK

The mathematics don't work out for the first one at 11/4 as far as I can see Mike. 5/1 would have been great!
But 11/4 is 11/20 a place and the place betting on betfair has it at about 12/20.
It certainly looks a good bet to be placed, but there's no value in it.

Melodize 7/1 (now 5/1) this one could be worth keeping an eye on.
Celtic Ransom 6/1 (1/4 the odds) (now 9/2) same with this one. He looks an odds on chance to be placed and you can get 5/1 (5/4) at the minute.

Verance

Nothing major value as far as I can see, will have to check back later.

Interesting to see the four Mike put up in the morning have all shortened.

POINTBREAK

Verance wrote: »

Nothing major value as far as I can see, will have to check back later.

Interesting to see the four Mike put up in the morning have all shortened.

That's the MikeWise effect..... lol
You're right on there being no major value bets at the minute.

You know that stat you posted about backing all the horses on betfair . Where did you get it?

Verance

Adrian Massey, I've just realised that he might estimate the Betfair Sp though? Not sure, I haven't really used it before.

POINTBREAK

Verance wrote: »

Adrian Massey, I've just realised that he might estimate the Betfair Sp though? Not sure, I haven't really used it before.

Its certainly an interesting stat if its right since it shows the betfair win market to be spot on.

POINTBREAK

I asked Mug to comment on yesterday's bet in the 4:20.
You can see his reply here TipsterForm +EV

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

Todays early possibles

2:00 MAIDEN STAKES (2Y) 5f 161yds (BATH) Byrony 5/1 (now 11/4) unplaced
4:20 SELLING HURDLE 2m 3f (NEWT) Mhilu 5/1 (now 9/4 fav due to n/r so looks too short) win
6:10 MAIDEN FILLIES ST 5f 10yds (WIND) Melodize 7/1 (now 5/1) unplaced
5:40 HANDICAP (0-60) 1m 1f 103yds (WOLV) Celtic Ransom 6/1 (1/4 the odds) (now 9/2)placed

early price possibles

3:20 HANDICAP (0-60) 7f 214yds (BRIG) Eager To Bow 6/1 (1/4 odds) shortened to 11/4 fav 2nd
6:30 MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES 5f (CARL) Choose Wisely 5/1 off at 11/2 wins
4:00 HANDICAP 1m 2f 50y (NOTT) Babycakes 5/1 or Hudoo 9/2 (worth watching the market) 2nd and unplaced
6:10 MAIDEN HURDLE 2m 3f 110yds (TOWC) Like Ice 6/1 (off at 11/4 second fav) unplaced

POINTBREAK

mike65 wrote: »

early price possibles

3:20 HANDICAP (0-60) 7f 214yds (BRIG) Eager To Bow 6/1 (1/4 odds)
6:30 MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES 5f (CARL) Choose Wisely 5/1
4:00 HANDICAP 1m 2f 50y (NOTT) Babycakes 5/1 or Hudoo 9/2 (worth watching the market)
6:10 MAIDEN HURDLE 2m 3f 110yds (TOWC) Like Ice 6/1

hmmmmmmmmmmmm I picked 4 races but only one of them matches those?
TipsterForm Positive EV

Wodawick

POINTBREAK wrote: »

hmmmmmmmmmmmm I picked 4 races but only one of them matches those?
TipsterForm Positive EV

Morning all ! So this is where you're all hanging out now? I wondered why no-one was posting in the other thread yesterday.....

One selection for me today, based on the early prices;

2.30 Nottingham Fav 7/4, 2nd Fav 7/2, Fleet Captain 6/1, 10/1 Bar. (12 Runners)

I'm slightly worried that there are 12 runners, as I think the fewer the better, but I'm gonna take the chance on this one.

mike65

Well I did say possibles, the market will slip and slide by the off they might all look wrong or right depending.

I would have included the Nots 2.30 but for the fact its a very unexposed maiden race.

Wodawick

mike65 wrote: »

Well I did say possibles, the market will slip and slide by the off they might all look wrong or right depending.

I would have included the Nots 2.30 but for the fact its a very unexposed maiden race.

I posted that up as a selection without realising that there is little or no form to go on. For that reason, I would avoid the race.

POINTBREAK

mike65 wrote: »

Well I did say possibles, the market will slip and slide by the off they might all look wrong or right depending.

I would have included the Nots 2.30 but for the fact its a very unexposed maiden race.

Its all about opinion. You might be completely right I might be completely wrong ( though according to the wife I'm always right!....LOL)

mike65

4:10 Musselburgh is a 6 horse race. Couldn't have that!

POINTBREAK

mike65 wrote: »

4:10 Musselburgh is a 6 horse race. Couldn't have that!

It depends. We are looking at it from 2 different viewpoints.
I'm looking at the way the race is priced up to see if there is a mathematical value bet, then I have a look at the stats and then I will look at the form last.
I think you are maybe more form orientated?

mike65

Well it may work from a theoretical mathamatical POV, unless it finishes third. Is Mrs Mogg your pick? 6/1 pp

POINTBREAK

mike65 wrote: »

Well it may work from a theoretical mathamatical POV, unless it finishes third. Is Mrs Mogg your pick? 6/1 pp

I haven't picked anything yet. When the markets get going if there is a 6/1 that is odds on in the place market or a 3/1 that is 1/2 to be placed that's the first thing I will be looking at. Then its a matter of deciding if backing a 50/100 is good enough value at 75/100 (3/1 at 1/4 odds)
I had a look at Adrian Massey and the top stables and top jockeys do a lot better than the rest. I suppose that's pretty obvious. Firm Ground and Female horses drag the stats down significantly, but I don't know if the layers are taking all that into consideration. Some top stables have a strike rate of over 90% with their horses that start at worse than 1/2 so I don't think its worth opposing them with a 2nd fav.

Moro Man

I've been punting along these lines for years. I normally have a few refinements that I would use for finding bets.

1. No unraced horses.

2. No bets in handicaps.

3. Avoid races with 12+ runners.

Generally on betfair the place only market will reflect the above 3 situations

I also check the place only markets with the bookmakers. Powers have it for every race. It certainly wouldn't be a competitive as the betfair market but it is displayed in their shops.

Bookmakers hate laying each way at around 7/2 when the fav is 1/3. On average the Powers place only market will have the 7/2 shot at 1/8 or 1/9.

Personally I find the all weather the best medium for this. Especially in maidens / claimers as the races are not that competitive with alot of deadwood in them and the form seems to hold up. Just don't mix and match Southwell form with the other two as horses that have run well at Wolverhampton / Lingfield generally do not perform at Southwell. A lot of trainers will run horses two or three times at Southwell where they will finish last due to hating the surface and then pop them back into a claimer where they are well in but the racing post comment will say out of form and they are generously priced up, backed off the boards and romp home, Heathyards Pride yesterday was the latest example

POINTBREAK

Interesting Moro Man I don't agree with your points 2 and 3 though.

Moro Man

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Interesting Moro Man I don't agree with your points 2 and 3 though.

Its just from experience handicaps can be a bit too competitive and horses can get run out of the places quite easily, and similarly in maidens with 13 / 14 runners horses from top stables might not be fancied but they can run on for a place and knock you back to 4th or 5th


In an ideal world I wish all races were like this one

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499148&r_date=2010-03-05&popup=yes


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Doncaster Result
05 Mar 2010
« 3:10 » E B F SPORTINGBET.COM MARES' "NATIONAL HUNT" NOVICES' HURDLE (QUALIFIER)
(Class 4) (4yo+) (2m3f110y) 2m3½f Good 10 hdles
£3,577.75, £1,050.50, £525.25, £262.35

WATCH RACE - 20p
RESULTRATE RACE
Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 Diavoleria 33/1 7 11-5 M W Easterby 96 * * »
Denis O'Regan



« 2 1 Alegralil 5/6F 5 11-12 D McCain Jnr 129 * * »
A P McCoy



« 3 nk Diklers Oscar (IRE) 5/4 7 11-5 K G Reveley 120 * * »
James Reveley



« 4 38 Aega 80/1 5 10-7 N B King — * * »
Alex Merriam5



« 5 7 Hi Ho Silvia 100/1 5 10-12 N B King — * *
Tom Messenger



« 6 nse Karingreason 28/1 7 11-2 K G Reveley 109 * * »
Michael Naughton3



« 7 10 Morello Mist 150/1 5 10-12 Mrs S J Smith — * *
Tjade Collier



« 8 1¼ Queen Octavia 100/1 5 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies — * * »
Tom Molloy3

POINTBREAK

The 33/1 and the 28/1 each way I assume?

Moro Man

POINTBREAK wrote: »

The 33/1 and the 28/1 each way I assume?

All six of them...... for a small profit:eek:

L'prof

POINTBREAK wrote: »

hmmmmmmmmmmmm I picked 4 races but only one of them matches those?
TipsterForm Positive EV

Hayley Cropper looks excellent value, I might back Peppercorn Rent in that race too. At the current prices, I wouldn't look at the other races to be honest.

POINTBREAK

L'prof wrote: »

Hayley Cropper looks excellent value, I might back Peppercorn Rent in that race too. At the current prices, I wouldn't look at the other races to be honest.

Those are just races that may be possibles. The idea is I go through them and show why one is a bet and one isn't. That sort of thing.

L'prof

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Those are just races that may be possibles. The idea is I go through them and show why one is a bet and one isn't. That sort of thing.

It's very time consuming isn't it? Worth it in the end I guess.

POINTBREAK

L'prof wrote: »

It's very time consuming isn't it? Worth it in the end I guess.

It can be when there is no stand out bet but it really should be worth it in the end............ if mathematics works.......... lol

L'prof

POINTBREAK wrote: »

It can be when there is no stand out bet but it really should be worth it in the end............ if mathematics works.......... lol

I could write a program that'll take in all the horses and their prices and work out if it's a value bet or what price they would need to be to be a value bet. I'm going on holidays soon, but maybe when I come back.

POINTBREAK

L'prof wrote: »

I could write a program that'll take in all the horses and their prices and work out if it's a value bet or what price they would need to be to be a value bet. I'm going on holidays soon, but maybe when I come back.

That would be interesting.
The one I picked out earlier as a bit of value was Sweet Child O Mine in the 4-00 at Brighton. I missed the 20/1 but have a few quid ew on at 16/1 and there is a wee bit even at that price, but the main reason for backing it is the Pricewise Extra selection is in that race and it is skewing the market so without the volume of money that one attracts I reckon mine would be a LOT shorter.

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

early price possibles

3:20 HANDICAP (0-60) 7f 214yds (BRIG) Eager To Bow 6/1 (1/4 odds) shortened to 11/4 fav 2nd
6:30 MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES 5f (CARL) Choose Wisely 5/1 off at 11/2 wins
4:00 HANDICAP 1m 2f 50y (NOTT) Babycakes 5/1 or Hudoo 9/2 (worth watching the market) 2nd and unplaced
6:10 MAIDEN HURDLE 2m 3f 110yds (TOWC) Like Ice 6/1 off at 11/4 second fav unplaced

todays results.

POINTBREAK

Choose Wisely 5/1 off at 11/2 wins

Mike I missed that race. It looks like Choose Wisely became a small value bet by virtue of it drifting?
It was 1.71 (71/100) a place on betfair and if you backed it at 11/2 EW you're getting 11/10 (110/100) that looks a big enough difference ,
BUT I couldn't have backed it because Kevin Ryan's are usually dead when they drift.

Verance

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Choose Wisely 5/1 off at 11/2 wins

Mike I missed that race. It looks like Choose Wisely became a small value bet by virtue of it drifting?
It was 1.71 (71/100) a place on betfair and if you backed it at 11/2 EW you're getting 11/10 (110/100) that looks a big enough difference ,
BUT I couldn't have backed it because Kevin Ryan's are usually dead when they drift.

Damn, I missed that one too, looks like we'll have to be tuned in to market movements throughout the day...

POINTBREAK

Verance wrote: »

Damn, I missed that one too, looks like we'll have to be tuned in to market movements throughout the day...

Yeah, looks like Mathematics 1 Form and horsey knowledge 0.

mike65

I never doubted it would win

A quick scan through the betfair prices for tomorrow looks more promising.

Nulty

Moro Man wrote: »

Its just from experience handicaps can be a bit too competitive and horses can get run out of the places quite easily, and similarly in maidens with 13 / 14 runners horses from top stables might not be fancied but they can run on for a place and knock you back to 4th or 5th


In an ideal world I wish all races were like this one

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499148&r_date=2010-03-05&popup=yes


Log in or Register | Help Centre

Doncaster Result
05 Mar 2010
« 3:10 » E B F SPORTINGBET.COM MARES' "NATIONAL HUNT" NOVICES' HURDLE (QUALIFIER)
(Class 4) (4yo+) (2m3f110y) 2m3½f Good 10 hdles
£3,577.75, £1,050.50, £525.25, £262.35

WATCH RACE - 20p
RESULTRATE RACE
Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 Diavoleria 33/1 7 11-5 M W Easterby 96 * * »
Denis O'Regan



« 2 1 Alegralil 5/6F 5 11-12 D McCain Jnr 129 * * »
A P McCoy



« 3 nk Diklers Oscar (IRE) 5/4 7 11-5 K G Reveley 120 * * »
James Reveley



« 4 38 Aega 80/1 5 10-7 N B King — * * »
Alex Merriam5



« 5 7 Hi Ho Silvia 100/1 5 10-12 N B King — * *
Tom Messenger



« 6 nse Karingreason 28/1 7 11-2 K G Reveley 109 * * »
Michael Naughton3



« 7 10 Morello Mist 150/1 5 10-12 Mrs S J Smith — * *
Tjade Collier



« 8 1¼ Queen Octavia 100/1 5 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies — * * »
Tom Molloy3

Noice! I had an each way on the winner...I took the bet at 25s I think and it drifted further to 33s:pac::pac::pac: