The Iceland Volcano Thread

LookingFor

Comparing the latest to the previous one it does show the ash area between 20000 and 35000 feet more south and east than in the last forecast. Same for the area up to 20000 feet, but it's a wider area, and doesn't change quite so much.

I guess the higher altitudes are affected more directly by wind direction at a given time, with dust diffused over lower altitudes in a wider area around that 'core'. It would line up with the way the wind's forecast to go tomorrow anyway.

What it'll mean for flights tomorrow I've no idea. At a guess I'd think atlantic flights from Dublin should restart. Flights to UK and Europe might remain problematic though...as much because of conditions there as here.

nacho libre

it could be worse we could live on Guam:pac:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9R-cQ_A_6w

katkin

snow ghost wrote: »

There was a documentary on RTE2 about a year ago about a scientist who read tree rings, he was saying that back at the start of the dark ages, the strange formation of tree rings were telling him of a major catastrophe in Europe for 4 or 5 years.

He tied the timeline of the rings in with historical accounts of a great disisater where the sky was black for 4 years over Europe and there was major famines and political upheavel -everyone thought it was a message from the Gods that they weren't happy and it caused mayhem.

Anyway this all tied in with a major volcanic eruption at the time.

Anyone else see that program?

No, but studied archaeology and learned about the Iron Age lull, from c. 500 BC to 500 AD. At this time around Northern Europe evidence for human settlement and farming contracted greatly and has been linked to the eruption of Mount Heckla in Iceland. They found evidence in tree-rings too. Don't suppose the effects lasted 1000 years but perhaps affected life and society so much it took until 500AD for settlements to grow and expand again.

Sorry, just googled Hecla to check my hazy memory, tree ring evidence show it occurred c900BC.

argosy2006

Whats in volcanic ash or smoke from volcano? is it harmless,,or is it harmful to environment same way emissions from cars and trucks are?
and does it then undo all of the work done by people to lower emissions/? i think it must undo all the savings,?? so whats point in retiring your v8 for a tdi when after a years of using ur tdi a volcano erupts :P

M.T. Cranium

I've only had time to read a few bits of this thread, just rushed off my feet today with many other concerns.

Anyway, yes I have heard about that event (snow ghost mentions) in the dark ages, the year 650 sticks in my head although that may be way off. May see what I can find out about it. Darkness by day and famine, that sort of stuff would certainly be quite plausible if major Icelandic volcanoes erupted en masse. Hard to see where else such an event would be sourced, as Med volcanoes would likely vent mostly to northeast.

This must have come up in the thread, but major (not quite that bad) volcanic eruptions in Iceland in 1783 were then followed by a severe winter in both Europe and North America in early 1784.

It's almost a truism of climatology that volcanic dust equals cold periods of weather, but the cause and effect may not be what we think. Consider that with Krakatoa in August 1883, it had already turned very cold across North America from about December 1882 onward. What that and some other evidence suggests is that volcanic activity may actually be increased by unusual shifts of the atmosphere placing different stress on the crust. Then when they blow, the volcanoes have a further cooling effect. This also seems to be the case in 2010. We have already had the unusually cold winter(s) and now the volcanic episodes. Also notice how cold it is going to turn next week. That is too fast for the usual theoretical volcano-atmosphere process.

The cooling of the atmosphere, if it is anything but random chance, is thought to happen because all circulation patterns are subjected to a decrease in insolation. This means it can still be warm or cold well into the volcanic aftermath but just 1-2 C deg cooler in all cases. For example in 1816, the year without a summer in North America, some parts of the year were near normal, others were record cold. In 1884 well after Krakatoa, same thing and the cold intensified in 1885.

My personal theory (and it is mine) is that the volcanic dust has a slight effect but eventually this becomes cumulative and then air mass source strength and frequency changes gradually so that quite often the coldest weather after a volcanic dust signal is about 2-3 years later when the dust has pretty much settled out. This would apply in the case of Pinatubo (1991) when 1992 was quite cool (this mainly from N America but then we are closer to that source) 1993 saw a rebound but the winter of 1993-94 was bitterly cold. By about June 1994 the signal from Pinatubo appears to be totally washed out of the temperature series.

So in other words, with the quiet sun already tilting the balance towards cold winters, this may further overturn the apple cart of warming, and perhaps there will now be several rather or very cold winters. Summers are less likely to be affected because of air mass source considerations. But the thing to remember is, the volcanic dust isn't going to necessarily turn the weather very cold non-stop for months. It's just another card in an already complicated deck. Now a huge eruption of massive proportions with very large amounts of ash would be a different question because that would block a lot of insolation.

M.T. Cranium

Argosy, you posted while I was typing there -- but to answer your question, I would suggest each volcano emits a unique type of ash but in general it is partly harmful and partly beneficial on different time scales once it is deposited. The harmful effects on aircraft while still aloft, I imagine that has been discussed earlier in this thread. When Mt St Helens erupted in 1980, they had to call out the snowploughs in parts of eastern WA state and even southern BC to clear several inches of ash off the roads. I am no expert on the chemistry but I don't believe the ash is too harmful to the soil in most cases, the harm is more directly to the physical environment and to peoples' health, after all if you're breathing that stuff in, it's like reversing the smoking ban times ten thousand. Of course, Ireland being a more civilized society than ours, you probably don't have smoking bans. :cool:

maquiladora

Flights restrictions in the UK will remain in place until at least 7pm.

There should be an update at 8:30am.

Su Campu

Dublin Airport should open at 11am, and 4 out of 5 transatlantic flights will get away. Still, not much good to those heading north, east or south.

maquiladora

Icelandic volcanologists carefully watching Eyjafjallajokull’s big sister

April 16, 2010

The erupting Eyjafjallajökull volcano may be causing its fair share of havoc but scientists say we may have seen nothing yet.

All eyes in the volcanology community are focused on Eyjafjallajökull’s far larger sister, called Katla, which could cause disruption on a far larger scale. Katla is about eight miles to the west under the Myrdalsjökull ice cap. An eruption could cause widespread flooding and disrupt air traffic between Europe and North America.

While Katla is not part of the same underground network of magma channels, it is close enough to be affected by power shifts in Eyjafjallajökull’s system.

There is also a chance that a horizontal sheet of magma under Eyjafjallajökull could shoot out and enter a magma chamber beneath Katla. Hitting the roots of its neighbour would almost certainly trigger an eruption.

The three eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull on record have each been associated with a subsequent eruption of Katla. There have been no signs of turbulence beneath Katla but, having last erupted in 1918, a new blast is overdue. Katla has erupted every 40-80 years.

“So far there have been no signs of the reawakening of the Katla volcano, but a lot of things can still happen, so we are monitoring it quite closely,” Páll Einarsson, a geophysicist at the University of Iceland, said.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/earth-environment/article7099200.ece

maquiladora

Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Friday April 16, 0830

The cloud of volcanic ash continues to cover much of the UK and the eruption in Iceland continues. Following a review of the latest Met Office information, NATS advises that restrictions preventing flights in English controlled airspace will remain in place until 0100 (UK time) tomorrow, Saturday 17 April, at the earliest.

Flights in Northern Ireland and the Western Isles of Scotland to and from Glasgow and Prestwick will continue to be allowed until 1900 (UK time) subject to individual co-ordination. North Atlantic traffic to and from Glasgow, Prestwick and Belfast may also be allowed in this period.

From 1900 (UK time), forecasts indicate that Scottish airspace may be able to accept domestic flights within Scotland and Northern/Southern Ireland, and North Atlantic flights to/from airports in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

We will review further Met Office information and at 1330 (UK time) we will advise further arrangements. In general, the situation is dynamic and subject to change.

We continue to work closely with airports, airlines, and the rest of Europe to understand and mitigate the implications of the volcanic eruption.

LookingFor

edit - beaten!

UK airspace closure extended to 1am Sat. Flights within scotland and between scotland and ireland may be able to reopen from 7pm.

Next update at 1.30pm. They say the situation is 'dynamic and subject to change'.

The cloud of volcanic ash continues to cover much of the UK and the eruption in Iceland continues. Following a review of the latest Met Office information, NATS advises that restrictions preventing flights in English controlled airspace will remain in place until 0100 (UK time) tomorrow, Saturday 17 April, at the earliest.

Flights in Northern Ireland and the Western Isles of Scotland to and from Glasgow and Prestwick will continue to be allowed until 1900 (UK time) subject to individual co-ordination. North Atlantic traffic to and from Glasgow, Prestwick and Belfast may also be allowed in this period.

From 1900 (UK time), forecasts indicate that Scottish airspace may be able to accept domestic flights within Scotland and Northern/Southern Ireland, and North Atlantic flights to/from airports in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

We will review further Met Office information and at 1330 (UK time) we will advise further arrangements. In general, the situation is dynamic and subject to change.

We continue to work closely with airports, airlines, and the rest of Europe to understand and mitigate the implications of the volcanic eruption.

alibabba

Anyone got a link to an updated map of the ash flow over europe
I saw this on the news last nite, great info

LookingFor

alibabba wrote: »

Anyone got a link to an updated map of the ash flow over europe
I saw this on the news last nite, great info

The latest VAAC forecast maps are here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271398735.png

There's definitely a southerly drag, although weirdly the 'red' area is shown wrapping around such that it expands a bit further west again, covering wales again in the midnight shot. I suppose it's a battle between those two directions of spread wrt London re-opening.

H2UMrsRobinson

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Of course, Ireland being a more civilized society than ours, you probably don't have smoking bans. :cool:

Unfortunately Ireland relinquished there hold on civilised behaviour and introduced a smoking ban a few years ago, UK also have the ban now...

Volcanic Ash = Karma...

vibe666

our friend was told to be back at the airport in tenerife at 7am to fly to dublin at 9am this morning with boarding at 8:25.

last we heard she was at the boarding gate, so who knows.

watch this space...

edit: been delayed until 10:30 now, but hard to tell if they'd be lumping tenerife in with the rest of europe as it's so far south.

if they can fly to the US they can fly north from tenerife and then head north northwest and cut in round the west coast and into dublin.

its just really annoying hanging round waiting to hear.

could be worse though, i've seen a lot of unhappy people waiting at the airport and have heard of people who are supposed to be flying out to get married and stuff like that.

maquiladora

Driving through the ash in Iceland....

LookingFor

Restrictions at Dublin lifted...technically...but where can planes go?

The Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) has announced that as a result of the ash cloud continuing to move away from the South East of Ireland, it is lifting restrictions within Irish airspace except for a block off the south coast of Ireland. This effectively means that Dublin Shannon and Cork Airports will be open for flights

"While our State airports have had the restriction lifted, the situation is still very serious throughout Europe. The majority of airspace and airports in the UK, France and Germany continue to have restrictions in place. The weather maps show the volcanic ash cloud hanging over England and Wales and most of mainland Europe. So there will continue to be restrictions in those countries for at least the next 24 hours. This will mean that there will continue to be serious disruption for east bound and south bound traffic out of Irish airports"

"We are concerned that the volcano continues to be very active and we cannot rule out further restrictions if the weather patterns change and the ash cloud returns to Ireland," he warned. Safety will always be our first concern.

Passengers should keep in touch with their airlines on a regular basis for updates.

The IAA will provide an update after 14.00 on Friday, 16th April 2010.

I guess flights within Ireland and flights westbound to NA will be the only ones moving.

pauldry

10 news says domestic flights in ireland
are back on with immediate effect.

Winds will continue in a NW direction for a couple of days and then W sending the plume East.

The long range predicts a return to South Westerlies and Rain in Ireland & UK for end April

ZeRoY

pauldry wrote: »

10 news says domestic flights in ireland
are back on with immediate effect.

Winds will continue in a NW direction for a couple of days and then W sending the plume East.

The long range predicts a return to South Westerlies and Rain in Ireland & UK for end April

Decision for flights in Ireland is set for 11am, not 10am. From Dublin Airport site:

The IAA has confirmed that restrictions in Irish airspace will continue until 11.00 today (Friday, 16th April) at the earliest.

Passengers are advised to consult with airline websites BEFORE coming to the airport in order to obtain up to date information regarding their particular flight.

pauldry

Well I guess id believe Dublin Airport over the News!

Anyways here a picture link off yahoo http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20100416/img/puk-volcano-ash-flights-gro-c4f809d72127.html:cool:

Pangea

Since the wind direction wil be coming from the north, and the ash cloud comes to us, is the ash cloud strong enough to block out the sun and make it cloudy?

alibabba

pauldry wrote: »

Well I guess id believe Dublin Airport over the News!

Anyways here a picture link off yahoo http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20100416/img/puk-volcano-ash-flights-gro-c4f809d72127.html:cool:

link broken (or ash has gotten to it)

Colin_M

I was meant to fly to Thailand last night but it was cancelled. It is mean to leave tomorrow night. Read this on the NCA site about your rights if a flight is cancelled or delayed - http://www.consumerconnect.ie/eng/Hot_Topics/Tip_Of_The_Week/Tips_Archive/ash-cloud-passenger-rights.html

Sponge Bob

500Hpa GFS 00z run is showing the airflow heading roughly Iceland - North Sea - North and Middle Europe for the next week...sometimes over Scotland sometimes not and Ireland clear of it.

This would mean clear runs Ireland to....France Spain and Cuba

maquiladora

Eyjafjallajökull webcam isn't much help, can't really make out much - http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk/

Speak Now

Pangea wrote: »

Since the wind direction wil be coming from the north, and the ash cloud comes to us, is the ash cloud strong enough to block out the sun and make it cloudy?

No it's not exactly a cloud. The ashes are well dispersed in the atmosphere, enough to cause an engine failure but not really for us to see although possibly some strange colours at a clear sunset.

maquiladora

No flights due to arrive or leave from Cork airport today.

Next update on UK flights at 1pm.

vibe666

maquiladora wrote: »

Eyjafjallajökull

it looks like the worlds most difficult to pronounce swear word!

interesting that the one incoming flight i'm interested in is the only one that has an arrival scheduled for today (albeit delayed).

http://www.dublinairport.com/flight-information/live-arrivals.asp

Tenerife Aer Lingus EI1763 16-04-2010 13:00 Delayed 1510

kao123

All flights cancelled from Schiphol, and in UK as well, I am suppoed to be flying from Amsterdam today at 16:30 to Heathrow then Heathrow to Shannon, that is most definetley not going to happen, looks like it's a ferry to the UK then ferry to Ireland.... unless someone knows anyone here in Amsterdam with a hovercraft I could borrow !

Fizman

Looks like my week in the sun is down the swanny. Dublin to Fuerteventura tomorrow morning at 7:20. Fantastic.