The Iceland Volcano Thread

Su Campu

The latest VAAC forecast chart mentions that the ash is 58% SiO2 (ie. silica, or basically glass). It's formed as the glacial ice rapidly cools and crystallises the molten rock.

Also, interesting to note that they state there's no significant risk above FL350 (35,000ft). Germany were allowing some planes to overfly their airspace at sufficiently high altitudes, so we may see the odd plane pop up on radar throughout the weekend.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271483349.png

Here's an interesting link

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/volcano.html

Redsunset

Su Campu

redsunset wrote: »

You have a very apt username!

Amtmann

Can someone give me the scientific explanation as to why the cloud is lingering over Europe, and why this hasn't happened before in the past 50 years?

What would it take to disperse the cloud, and when is this likely to happen?

Could this continue into May?

JanuarySnowstor

The cars in Cork are covered in a film of dust.
Not sure if it's from the volcano or not, my bet is it is!

DOCARCH

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The cars in Cork are covered in a film of dust.
Not sure if it's from the volcano or not, my bet is it is!

Well don't ask Met E - they'll tell you as far as they're concerned, it's not!

LookingFor

Furet wrote: »

Can someone give me the scientific explanation as to why the cloud is lingering over Europe, and why this hasn't happened before in the past 50 years?

What would it take to disperse the cloud, and when is this likely to happen?

Could this continue into May?

Not a scientist but it's down to the weather. Airflow is dragging the ash from Iceland down over Europe. The Airflow is also fairly plodding so it's just circulating around.

Hasn't happened in the past 50 years partially at least because this volcano hasn't erupted like this in that time, AFAIK.

A change in weather, stronger airflow over Europe and a stop to the ash production (either because the volcano stops or the wind in Iceland starts blowing it away from Europe), should eventually disperse it, but I'm not sure how long that takes...

Side note: webcam shows some fairly big ash eruptions now.

LookingFor

The Cork dust could well be volcanic. The dust risk area has swung right up over the south of Ireland now per the VAAC advisory. That doesn't mean necessarily there's enough dust there for there to be deposits, but it's possible.

In Britain the Met Office has report settling of thin ash in the Thames Valley.

Redsunset

Thousands grounded until next week

Volcanic cloud has spread to much of mainland Europe



People queue at Dublin Airport yesterday where hundreds of flights were cancelled due to volcanic ash



By Jason O'Brien

Saturday April 17 2010

HUNDREDS of thousands of stranded air passengers who hoped for lift-off this weekend will remain grounded until next week at the earliest as the plume of volcanic ash shut down most of European airspace yesterday.
Ryanair last night cancelled a further 400 flights into and out of the country, with the no-frills airline grounding its Irish fleet until Monday lunchtime at the earliest.
The airline's chief executive Michael O'Leary described the situation as "unprecedented".

Aer Lingus will not be flying anywhere in Europe from Ireland ahead of a further review of the situation at lunchtime today.
However, Met Eireann is not predicting a significant improvement in conditions so that window is likely to be extended.
More than 17,000 flights across Europe were grounded yesterday in what has become the biggest disruption to air travel since the Twin Tower terrorism attacks.

Some 100,000 travellers to and from Ireland have been inconvenienced in the first two days of the travel chaos, with just 11 of the 460 flights scheduled to arrive or depart Dublin Airport getting the green light yesterday.

And with the ash cloud predicted to hold steady above much of the UK and southern Ireland, the problem is set to continue.
"All the Ryanair flights into and out of Ireland, the UK, Scandinavia and the north European coastline are cancelled until 1300 hours or lunchtime on Monday," Mr O'Leary said last night.

"That is because all the weather indications show that this volcanic ash is going to continue to be blown down across the UK, across Ireland, and it's not going to be safe."

Some Aer Lingus transatlantic flights did fly from Dublin yesterday with a single flight leaving Shannon, but there were no commercial flights whatsoever from Cork.

The Irish Aviation Authority re-opened Irish airspace -- apart from a small pocket off the south coast -- at 10am yesterday.
But with the cloud spreading to cover the UK and much of mainland Europe it made little practical difference with only a limited number of domestic flights.

The IAA last night closed Cork, Kerry and Waterford airports from 9pm until 11am today as the ash cloud moved from the south of Ireland back towards the south coast. Shannon was closed from 4am today until 10am.
All other airports remain open but routes to the UK, continental Europe and the south of Spain were closed until further notice.

Risk
"The indications are that the ash cloud will present a serious risk to flights in and out of Cork, Waterford and Kerry Airports and Shannon Airport to a lesser degree. As a result we have no alternative but to impose these restrictions," Philip Hughes from the IAA said last night.

"Irish airports and Irish airspace, with the exception of a block off the south coast, have been operating without restrictions since 10am.
"However, airlines were unable to capitalise on this arrangement because of the severe restrictions in UK and European airspace."
The Government's Taskforce on Emergency Planning also met yesterday to discuss the situation.

According to advice from Met Eireann, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Health, there are no air quality, public health or environmental concerns.

Met Eireann has predicted the volcanic ash in the upper atmosphere is likely to largely miss Ireland until tomorrow at the earliest.

Forecaster Evelyn Cusack said an area of high pressure was keeping the plume from settling directly over the country, and this is expected to remain the case until tomorrow at least, with cooler weather moving in on Monday and Tuesday. However, some rain tomorrow could see the ash falling to the ground.

Transport Minister Noel Dempsey said the Department of Health's reassurances on there being no health implications were "very solidly based".

There were reports of unusual dust deposits in many parts of the west and the northwest yesterday afternoon, but Met Eireann said it was unlikely to be volcanic ash.
The prevailing winds are expected to return to their usual direction blowing from the southwest on Wednesday, a feature which is expected to take the plume away from Ireland.

"We can see an end in sight to it by the middle of next week," Ms Cusack said. The volcano continued to erupt yesterday, although rain predicted for Iceland is expected to lessen the impact of new emissions.
The Taoiseach last night said it was impossible for Ireland to have a plan to cope with an act of nature as big as the ash cloud, and that the government would be guided by aviation and meteorology experts.
"These are acts of nature that are taking place -- what we have to try and make sure and do is not compromise aviation safety," he said.

Mr Cowen flew into Cork Airport on an Air Corps helicopter yesterday. He said the Government would have to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Galway airport re-opened yesterday afternoon, while only a limited domestic flights service is running at Knock airport.
Aer Arann operated a limited service on domestic routes between Dublin, Derry, Galway, Sligo, Donegal and Knock.

metrovelvet

Is there any possibility this could trigger an erruption in a bigger volcano?

Su Campu

Seems to be dying down in the last half hour, it's more intermittent now. Fingers crossed!

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

Well don't ask Met E - they'll tell you as far as they're concerned, it's not!

I don't know why they are saying that.
It is obvious that if winds since this thing started have been north easterly or northerly in source that ash falling east of here will make it to ground in Ireland.
It doesn't matter that the main clouds stay East at upper levels during that.

Also the black ash clouds shown on tv animations recently did depict a huge chunk of the stuff heading down through Galway the other night.


@ metrovelvet -We here are amateur meteorologists-thats the science of weather and don't know anything more than you do about volcanic eruptions or earthquakes.
We are not vulcanologist's.
So we can't comment really on whether theres going to be a big quake or eruption in the sister volcano.
We can comment though on where the ash and smoke may drift and why.

Jumpy

Su Campu wrote: »

Seems to be dying down in the last half hour, it's more intermittent now. Fingers crossed!

Looks pretty strong to me still.

LookingFor

A very cool - but pretty terrible - forecast animation for the dust from the norwegian met office:

http://met.no/filestore/animation_2010041700.gif

Ireland gets gobbled up.

Deep Easterly

LookingFor wrote: »

A very cool - but pretty terrible - forecast animation for the dust from the norwegian met office:

http://met.no/filestore/animation_2010041700.gif

Ireland gets gobbled up.

Time to say our penance I think! :eek:

LookingFor

The latest VAAC proposes a very significant deterioration in the next 18 hours:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271508253.png

The 'blue line' >35000ft risk area also reappears.

owenc

LookingFor wrote: »

A very cool - but pretty terrible - forecast animation for the dust from the norwegian met office:

http://met.no/filestore/animation_2010041700.gif

Ireland gets gobbled up.

Sorry? What are you talking about! The far faaaaar south coast of Ireland will get ash another generilizatiln!!

LookingFor

owenc wrote: »

Sorry? What are you talking about! The far faaaaar south coast of Ireland will get ash another generilizatiln!!

Huh? Did you wait for the animation to fully load? It's only a forecast mind you, but it does show the ash cloud streaming right down over the british isles, and closing to meet up with and merge with the bank of ash off the south of Ireland and Britain.

force eleven

owenc wrote: »

Sorry? What are you talking about! The far faaaaar south coast of Ireland will get ash another generilizatiln!!

Why don't you wait and watch the graphic instead of these stupid responses??

LookingFor

IAA has extended the irish airspace ban until 1pm tomorrow.

http://www.iaa.ie/index.jsp?p=93&n=96&a=866

NATS UK has updated its ban to 7am tomorrow morning. Might be a small window for NI/Scotland/north England up til 7pm this evening.

Both seem to be pretty much in line with the VAAC forecast. It's pretty bad, with the 'hole' of open space around scotland/ireland/north-england closing between 6pm and midnight.

owenc

yes the airspace here is shut till 7am tomorrow.. The volcanic ash cloud from Iceland is moving around and changing shape. Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the restrictions currently in place across UK controlled airspace will remain in place until at least 0700 (UK time) tomorrow, Sunday 18 April.

There may be some airspace available within Scotland, Northern Ireland and England north of Leeds up till 1900 (UK time), which may enable some domestic flights to operate under individual coordination with ATC. We will be coordinating this closely with airlines and airports. We would repeat, it is most unlikely that many flights will operate today and anyone hoping to travel should contact their airline before travelling to the airport. After 1900 (UK time), Met Office forecasts show the ash cloud progressively covering the whole of the UK.

We will continue to monitor Met Office information and review our arrangements in line with that. We will advise further arrangements at approximately 2100 (UK time), today. Ni and scotland will be covered by the cloud for the first time in a few hours and once it comes it takes a long time to leave and if they know this is true why cant they just shut the airspace in 24 hour internvals instead of 7 hour intervals!

How deep is the ash with you now owen?
Is it deeper on the back mountain?

I think it's forecast to turn to shleet away from the south coast..so Gerry murphy was saying.

owenc

Deleted User wrote: »

How deep is the ash with you now owen?
Is it deeper on the back mountain?

I think it's forecast to turn to shleet away from the south coast..so Gerry murphy was saying.

yep mt says we could see sleet and snow showers tomorrow.. but i doubt it. why does the odd plane keep coming into uk airspace and then going off radar?

ch750536

If these particles are 53% glass does that pose a health risk? don't like the thought of breathing in glass.

ch750536

Three previous eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull are known in the last 1100
years (historical time in Iceland). The most recent began in December 1821
and lasted intermittently for more than a year. The neighbouring volcano
Katla erupted then on 26 June 1823.

Kippure

ch750536 wrote: »

If these particles are 53% glass does that pose a health risk? don't like the thought of breathing in glass.

Thought so myself. Breathing in such, rips at the lungs causing cloths and bleeding!

Its like an old method of poisioning, Crushed glass in food. Rips away at your internal organs slowly.

nacho libre

so contrary to what was said in previous days there should really be a health warning issued if the latest norwegian forecast is likely to be realised

nacho libre

Su Campu wrote: »

Seems to be dying down in the last half hour, it's more intermittent now. Fingers crossed!

are you hopecasting Su Campu;)? why can't you be like that when it comes to snow:P

ch750536

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=34396&Cr=volcano&Cr1=

16 April 2010 – The United Nations health agency said today that the health risks related to the ashes from the volcanic eruption in Iceland are not yet fully known, but they could be harmful when inhaled, especially for people with asthma and other respiratory problems.
It is estimated that about 25 per cent of the particles in the ash resulting from the eruption of the Eyjafjalla volcano on 14 April are less than 10 microns in size – considered more dangerous because they can penetrate deeper into the lungs, according to a news release issued by the World Health Organization (WHO).

ch750536

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/notes/2010/volcanic_ash_20100416/en/index.html

"Since the ash concentration may vary from country to country depending on the wind and air temperatures, our advice is to listen to local public health officials for the best guidance for individual situations," says Neira. "If people are outside and notice irritation in their throat and lungs, a runny nose or itchy eyes, they should return indoors and limit their outdoor activities."

Don't think I'll leave it to the government to look out for my best interests, especially since Iceland is involved.