8-10's Baseball system log

Fursttimer

Cheers, best of luck

8-10

Fursttimer wrote: »

Cheers, best of luck

Gone already, runs in marlins 1st inning and yankees 2nd. Oh well, bedtime I guess. Angels v Red Sox is level through 4. I fancy 5 or 6 picks tomorrow though.

8-10

Ok going unorthodox and having 15 x €1 doubles over 6 selections as well as 6 x €1 fivefolds (just in case it's my lucky night, due a good one after recent results):

1st half match betting:

Dodgers (Billingsley) v Cubs @ 8/13
Phillies (Hamels) v Nats @ 5/11
Rangers (Ogando) v Mariners @ 10/13
Rockies (De la Rosa) v Diamondbacks @ 4/5

0 runs in first inning:

Yankees v Tigers @ 5/6
Angels v Red Sox @ 10/13

€21 staked. Could be a disaster.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Ok going unorthodox and having 15 x €1 doubles over 6 selections as well as 6 x €1 fivefolds (just in case it's my lucky night, due a good one after recent results):

1st half match betting:

Dodgers (Billingsley) v Cubs @ 8/13 PUSH
Phillies (Hamels) v Nats @ 5/11 WIN
Rangers (Ogando) v Mariners @ 10/13 PUSH
Rockies (De la Rosa) v Diamondbacks @ 4/5 PUSH

0 runs in first inning:

Yankees v Tigers @ 5/6 LOSE
Angels v Red Sox @ 10/13 WIN

€21 staked. Could be a disaster.

Sabathia gave up 2 in the first.

15 x €1 doubles returns €15.24
6 x €1 fivefolds returns €2.57
Total returned €17.81

8-10

Ok Greinke is back pitching tonight for his first start of the season! Problem is PP is only giving odds on the first Brewers v Braves game today (they play a double-header with Greinke pitching the 2nd game of the 2 today) so I've gone to Bet365 for this €5/line trixie:

5 Innings Line:

Brewers (Greinke) v Braves @ 21/20 (*Game 2)
Giants (Lincecum) v Mets @ 20/29

Will there be a run in the Innings?

CLE Indians (J Tomlin) @ OAK Athletics (T Cahill) - 1st inning - No @ 5/8

€20 staked.

8-10

Ok bad run means I've slowed down a little. Not going every night, instead taking more time to update my spreadsheets and trying to find real value rather than putting a 3rd selection in for the sake of it etc.

I make it:

ROI = (238.63 - 226)/226 = 5%

And tonight I'm taking:

1st half betting:

Red Sox (Beckett) v Twins @ 10/23
Brewers (Greinke) v Padres @ 4/6

0 runs in 1st inning:

A's (Cahill) v Rangers (Wilson) @ 5/6

3x €5 doubles, €15 staked, PP prices

LightningBlue

Good to see your back to winning ways. Thanks for the tip.

8-10

LightningBlue wrote: »

Good to see your back to winning ways. Thanks for the tip.

Thanks buddy, overdue alright.

8-10 wrote: »

1st half betting:

Red Sox (Beckett) v Twins @ 10/23 WIN
Brewers (Greinke) v Padres @ 4/6 WIN

0 runs in 1st inning:

A's (Cahill) v Rangers (Wilson) @ 5/6 WIN

3x €5 doubles, €15 staked, PP prices

Return - €40.39.

ROI = (279.02-241)/241 = 15.7%

Tonight:

0 Runs in 1st inning:

Phillies (Halladay) versus Marlins (Johnson) @ 10/13 (If both these guys pitch like they have been this season there'll be no runs all game!)

1st half betting:

Giants (Lincecum) v Diamondbacks @ 5/9
Brewers (Marcum) v Padres @ 20/33

3x €5 doubles, PP, €15 staked

Also have a feeling Toronto will do well against the odds-on Red Sox and should be low runs early on in the Cardinals v Cubs game but not backing either.

bonescap

Thanks for these tips. I havent a clue about baseball but i've been doing ok from following your thread

8-10

bonescap wrote: »

Thanks for these tips. I havent a clue about baseball but i've been doing ok from following your thread

Hey, good to hear, being conscious that others might place a bet based on something I write really helps me put that bit more effort into being confident of what I pick. So in a way you're helping me!

8-10 wrote: »

0 Runs in 1st inning:

Phillies (Halladay) versus Marlins (Johnson) @ 10/13 (If both these guys pitch like they have been this season there'll be no runs all game!) WIN

1st half betting:

Giants (Lincecum) v Diamondbacks @ 5/9 PUSH
Brewers (Marcum) v Padres @ 20/33 WIN

Unlucky with the Giants but it could have gone either way. There were no runs until the bottom of the 9th inning! Giant's won by only 1-0, bet void.

€31.08 returned. ROI = (310.10-256)/256 = 21%

Not betting anything tonight but very interested to see how Jake Peavy pitches for the White Sox (though will have to wait until tomorrow to watch it, it's on late). His first start since the start of July 2010 because of injury. I'll give him a few starts to settle because if he gets his pitches back he can be very difficult to hit, and importantly he's very good at closing innings without a run if someone does get on base. But worth marking down for a few weeks' time.

8-10

Ok been taking it easy recently. Unfortunately I didn't get to log my bets on Friday but that's another story. :mad:

But since there's a lot of good pitching out there tonight I think I'm going to have 6 picks - 3x 1st half's and 3x 0 1st innings.

1st half match betting:

Orioles @ 10/11 (v Boston)
Yankees @ 10/7 (v Tampa Bay)
Marlins @ 4/5 (v Mets)

0 runs - 1st inning run total:

Phillies v Cardinals @ 10/13
Twins v Mariners @ 10/13
Giants v Rockies @ 5/6

With more selections I think it's sensible to lower the stake while staying with twofolds. 15 x €2 doubles = €30 staked.

Fursttimer

8-10 wrote: »

0 runs - 1st inning run total:

Phillies v Cardinals @ 10/13
Twins v Mariners @ 10/13
Giants v Rockies @ 5/6

With more selections I think it's sensible to lower the stake while staying with twofolds. 15 x €2 doubles = €30 staked.

Nice picking. Great minds think alike! These are my main 3 selections for tonight.

Also fancy NYY @ Rays, Orioles @ Red Sox & LAA @ A's

Good luck

Fursttimer

Fursttimer wrote: »

Nice picking. Great minds think alike! These are my main 3 selections for tonight.

Also fancy NYY @ Rays, Orioles @ Red Sox & LAA @ A's

Good luck

Dam Twins @ Mariners game let me down for a clean sweep.

Unlucky you too

8-10

Fursttimer wrote: »

Dam Twins @ Mariners game let me down for a clean sweep.

You said LAA @ A's? They got slaughtered 14-0.

Rest of the picks were solid, I really wanted to lump on Yankees as they were well overdue a win and overpriced but I think I was a victim of too many good matchups on one night.

And then 2 of them get rained off to ruin everything!

Still, slight profit as only got 1 of the other 4 wrong (& Yankees game push). Will update fully when I do my next picks (nothing tonight though fancy a Toronto Blue Jays win @ evens)

Fursttimer

8-10 wrote: »

You said LAA @ A's? They got slaughtered 14-0.

The other 3 matches I mentioned were also for 0 runs in 1st innings. That's usually the only bet I place in baseball.

14 runs but none in 1st inning

Twins game comes up and I'm rolling in it

Good luck with your next selections

8-10

^ sorry misread that last one then, thought you were backing the teams mentioned.

Ok well it's the last day before interleague this week which is going to be harder to call so gotta get in with probably last bet before next week:

0 runs in 1st inning:

Tigers (Verlander) v Red Sox (Beckett) @ 10/13
Giants (Bumgardner) v Dodgers (Billingsley) @ 10/13

1st half match betting:

Braves (Jurrjens) v D'backs @ 5/6

€5 trixie, €20 staked, PP prices.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1st half match betting:

Orioles @ 10/11 (v Boston) VOID (RAIN)
Yankees @ 10/7 (v Tampa Bay) PUSH
Marlins @ 4/5 (v Mets) VOID (RAIN)

0 runs - 1st inning run total:

Phillies v Cardinals @ 10/13 WIN
Twins v Mariners @ 10/13 LOSE
Giants v Rockies @ 5/6 WIN

With more selections I think it's sensible to lower the stake while staying with twofolds. 15 x €2 doubles = €30 staked.

Return - €34.10

8-10 wrote: »

0 runs in 1st inning:

Tigers (Verlander) v Red Sox (Beckett) @ 10/13 WIN
Giants (Bumgardner) v Dodgers (Billingsley) @ 10/13 WIN

1st half match betting:

Braves (Jurrjens) v D'backs @ 5/6 PUSH

€5 trixie, €20 staked, PP prices.

Return - €48.99

Updated ROI - Total Staked - €306, Total Returned - €393.19

ROI = (393.19-306)/306 = 28%

8-10

Very little going tonight but I've been pricing up relief pitchers more recently and I think I fancy a quick experiment with an 8 inning run total bet tonight seeing as it's A's and Angels:

8th inning total runs - 0 runs:

Oakland A's v Angels @ 20/31

...also, 1st inning total - 0 runs:

Red Sox v Indians @ 5/6

1st half match betting:

Rangers (Ogando) v White Sox @ 20/33

3x €5 doubles

8-10

^ 2 out of 3 to virtually break-even. Will update after next bets. 8th inning thing was a disaster!

Tonight:

0 runs in 1st:

Dodgers v Astros @ 10/13

1st half match betting:

Rockies (De la Rosa) v Dbacks @ 8/13
Cardinals (McClellan) v Padres (great bet this one) @ 10/13

Edit: Damn damn damn sorry guys but I just realised I forgot to include the stake!! It was supposed to say 3x€5 doubles as usual but completely overlooked it when I posted the selections before 7pm. However I do want to be transparent, it's now past 11pm when I've noticed and the Rockies game has already started and the bet is a winner as they lead after 5innings. The other 2 are yet to start. I think to keep the integrity of the log, I should cancel the original bet and just log a single €5 double on the 2 events yet to start (Cardinals and no runs in Dodgers v Astros).

Does that seem fair? I don't want to claim that I always post a similar stake so it should stand, as I shouldn't say anything is in a €5 double if the bet is already a winner when I edit in the stake. So let's leave it as €5 staked not €15.

8-10

4 selections:

1st half Match Betting:

Red Sox (Wakefield) v Tigers @ 20/21
Phillies (Oswalt) v Mets @ 20/31

0 Runs in 1st inning:

Giants v Brewers @ 10/13
Yankees v Mariners @ 10/13

I hope I'm not making a mistake but I narrowly excluded the Indians v Rays game for the Yankees one, also 10/13 for 0 in the first (Tomlin v Price)

Stake: €3 Yankee (PP prices), €33 staked.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

my season long bets:

PHI Phillies @ 1/4
SF Giants @ 6/5
BOS Red Sox @ 4/7
MIN Twins @ 8/5
MIL Brewers @ 33/20
TEX Rangers @ 23/20
Six-Folds, 1 bet * €50.00

PHI Phillies @ 1/4
SF Giants @ 6/5
BOS Red Sox @ 4/7
MIN Twins @ 8/5
MIL Brewers @ 33/20
TEX Rangers @ 23/20
Four-Folds, 15 bets * €10.00

I put these on during the offseason, so €200 staked. These are predictions on the division winners. I'm going to re-evaluate at the mid point in the season and try to cover a bit but looking at it now I could probably have waited until the season started as there's 2 of these I might want to change already! (edit- these are Bet365 odds, PP doesn't do multiples)

So we're just about at the halfway point in the season and I have 5 out of 6 teams leading the divisions, although a couple of them are very tight. Haands up I was WAY off with picking the Twins. Just haven't performed at all, especially big players like Morneau and Mauer who was injured for a bit. But the other 5 picks are looking promising for my 4-folds....long way to go.

Also in case anyone was wondering, the reason for no picks recently was because of all the inter-league play (try not to bet on it) and just before that I was in the States for a while and didn't have the time. Might have a few more picks in the next week but then I'm off to the States again next weekend so it's going to be stop-start until August really.

8-10

Ok where are we:

8-10 wrote: »

8th inning total runs - 0 runs:

Oakland A's v Angels @ 20/31 LOSE

...also, 1st inning total - 0 runs:

Red Sox v Indians @ 5/6 WIN

1st half match betting:

Rangers (Ogando) v White Sox @ 20/33 WIN

3x €5 doubles

€15 staked, €14.72

8-10 wrote: »

0 runs in 1st:

Dodgers v Astros @ 10/13 WIN

1st half match betting:

Rockies (De la Rosa) v Dbacks @ 8/13 VOID (event started before I posted stake, bet was a winner)
Cardinals (McClellan) v Padres (great bet this one) @ 10/13 LOSE

€5 staked, €0 returned

8-10 wrote: »

4 selections:

1st half Match Betting:

Red Sox (Wakefield) v Tigers @ 20/21 WIN
Phillies (Oswalt) v Mets @ 20/31 WIN

0 Runs in 1st inning:

Giants v Brewers @ 10/13 WIN
Yankees v Mariners @ 10/13 LOSE

€33 staked, €45.78 returned.

So total those 3 days: €53 staked, €60.50 returned.

Updated ROI - Total Staked - €359, Total Returned - €453.69

ROI = (453.69-359)/359 = 26%

_______________________________

So let's try that €3 yankee again tonight (most games in the league starting early afternoon so starting from after 6pm here), 4 picks:

0 runs in 1st inning:

Seattle Mariners(F Hernandez) v Los Angeles Angels(D Haren) @ 10/17

1st half match betting:

San Diego Padres(T Stauffer) v Los Angeles Dodgers(T Lilly) @ 10/11
Toronto Blue Jays(B Cecil) v Cleveland Indians(C Carrasco) @ 8/11

Handicap betting:

Detroit Tigers(Verlander) v Kansas City Royals(J Francis)....Detroit Tigers (-1.5) @ 20/23

€3 yankee, €33 staked

JONJO THE MISER

Glad to see your back buddy, have been betting on Baseball every week but went on a bit of a loosing run a month back.
Might dip my toes in again.

8-10

Disaster last night. Tigers had no bats, Haren couldn't find the zone in the first, Carrasco got beat up at home....only 1 out of 4 right for no return.

Ok so it's the halfway point in the season, and the All-Star break. I'm not going to have anything on the All-Star game but I'll throw a fiver at a couple of fancies for the Home Run derby (outright betting):

Prince Fielder @ 5/1
Matt Holliday @ 4/1

€10 staked (PP)

8-10

Useless. Ok back to 3x €5 doubles:

1st half betting:

Cleveland Indians(Masterson) At Baltimore Orioles(J Guthrie) @ 5/6
Kansas City Royals(B Chen) At Minnesota Twins(F Liriano) @ 20/31

0 runs in 1st:

Milwaukee Brewers(Y Gallardo) At Colorado Rockies(U Jimenez) @ 10/11

€15 staked

Flying out to the States tomorrow, more picks when i'm back.