8-10's Baseball system log

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

DOUBLE: 1st Innings Total Runs - Yankees/Rangers - 0 runs @ 5/6 + Phillies/Giants - 1 run @ 3/1 - €15 (110)

DOUBLE: 1st half match betting - NY Yankees @ 4/7 + SF Giants @ 20/23 - €15 (44.07)

DOUBLE: Total Home Team (Yankees) runs OVER 4.5 @ 5/6 + 1st half total betting Phillies/Giants OVER 4.3 @ evens - €20 (73.33)

Anytime HR:

Nick Swisher @ 31/10 - €5

Proud of myself for the way I called this Yankee game, but the Giants could still ruin everything!

1st half of 3 of my doubles are in, half on 1 other is on course to come in and 5th is looking unlikely.

Also Swisher got me a HR just like that, delighted. Need at least 2 doubles to come in though to have a success. 1 run in the 1st??? 3/1?? What was I thinking! :mad:

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1 run in the 1st??? 3/1?? What was I thinking! :mad:

It just came in, unreal. €110 back on €15 double, covers my bets for the night.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

DOUBLE: New York Yankees(Sabathia)(-1.5 Runs) @ 5/4 + San Francisco Giants(Bumgarner)(-1.5 Runs)@ 7/4 - €15 (ret €63.10) Still in play

DOUBLE: 1st Innings Total Runs - Yankees/Rangers - 0 runs @ 5/6 + Phillies/Giants - 1 run @ 3/1 - €15 Win (110)

DOUBLE: 1st half match betting - NY Yankees @ 4/7 + SF Giants @ 20/23 - €15 (44.07) Lose

DOUBLE: Total Home Team (Yankees) runs OVER 4.5 @ 5/6 + 1st half total betting Phillies/Giants OVER 4.3 @ evens - €20 Win (73.33)

Anytime HR:

Cody Ross @ 6/1 - €5 Still in play
Nick Swisher @ 31/10 - €5 Win (20.50)

9th inning:

DOUBLE: Phillies/Giants - UNDER 1.5 runs @ 1.7 + Yankees/Rangers - 2 or more runs @ 17/4 - €10 (60) Lose

Yankees to win World Series @ 14/1 - €10 Still in play

A couple of good wins on doubles. I'm going to bed so 2 bets still in play on the later game (plus the Yankees bet which rides until their elimination). My aim starting this 6 days ago was to double my money by the end of the World Series which ends early November. Now with the past couple of days I've achieved that after 9 postseason games. Lots of luck but I am happy at a lot of my predictions, especially given the amount of research.

Starting Bank - €138.78
In Play - €30
Current Bank - €342.61

Profit to €150 starting bank - + €192.61 (128%)

Total - 380.77
Returned - 573.38

ROI = (573.38 - 380.77)/380.77 = 50.6% ROI

3 bets still in play, however very very unlikely any will come in at this stage so looks like that's it. Not sure if I will continue with the thread.

EDIT: I'm assuming my double with SF winning 1st half won't win, currently 4-3 down in 5th inning so they'd need 2 more runs soon.2nd EDIT: Yep, lost! :P

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

DOUBLE: New York Yankees(Sabathia)(-1.5 Runs) @ 5/4 + San Francisco Giants(Bumgarner)(-1.5 Runs)@ 7/4 - €15 (ret €63.10) Lose

Anytime HR:

Cody Ross @ 6/1 - €5 Lose

Yankees to win World Series @ 14/1 - €10 Still in Play

Ok, just updating on the last couple of bets from last night's game. Ross didn't homer and SF won by a single run so it was actully close to coming in but no dice.

Anyway I'm taking the money and quitting. Terrific profit after 9 games and I don't think anyone was really following this log anyway so I'll let it die!

In Play - €10
Current Bank - €342.61

Stays the same: Profit to €150 starting bank - + €192.61 (128%) 50.6% ROI

DaDartle

8-10-

Don't end the thread. Keep it up, at least through the League Series'. It's proved quite interesting.

8-10

DaDartle wrote: »

8-10-

Don't end the thread. Keep it up, at least through the League Series'. It's proved quite interesting.

Ah sorry buddy, I'm not putting any money on myself so it's hard to just tip for the sake of it. I mean look at the market for the Halladay v Lincecum game tonight! Absolutely impossible to call and virtually no value anywhere.

Again, no runs in the 1st inning looks likely, but at 4/7 there'd have to be something decent in the Yankees game to double with, not worth it on it's own.

The only slight value I see is 9th inning highest scoring @ 8/1. I think it should maybe be slightly shorter as we're not going to see too much scoring in the first half of the game and it might be won at the end. But there's always the liklihood of only 1 team batting the 9th. The only reason I'd look here is because I think Brad Lidge is hot and cold in big pressure situations. I would have expected a 6/1 or 13/2 market so 8/1 is slight value in my book, but I won't be backing it.

I don't feel confident enough in my knowledge of the starters in the Yankees' game so staying clear. I include a screenshot below to show how riculous the odds are. How do you call a game like this and back something???

Anytime HR, my money would be on Chase Utley for the Phillies as he's really due I reckon. Again not going to bother at those odds.

Best of luck if having a flutter, I had always planned to stop this if I doubled my money. I'll be watching both games anyway. I'll feel a lot more confident in this log come March when I'll start afresh. Still have my €10 on Yankees in play @ 14/1 before they won yesterday, now best price is 6/1. Though they'll still have to face Cliff Lee if they win tonight. Hmm.

coughlan08

well done man,great to see a succussful log,,
you obviously know your stuff,
took the giants from ya yesterday,
close game but money in the bag so thanks.

dont give into the pressure of having a bet..:pac:wise man...;)

cup of tea

Should defintiely continue...unfortunately missed your last winning double.

8-10

Looking at tomorrow night's (incorrectly said tonight up above - sorry, I mean Friday night in any case, I guess it's now Friday morning) game between Yankees and Texas, particularly paying attention to Game 2 of this series with same pitchers....and I think I have to call it in favour of the Rangers. I think there will be runs in this game, possibly over 9 which is the line PP is going with. And I definitely think it will be closer than the 7-2 game 2 result. Given that it was a 5-run game that time in favour of Texas, I think the Rangers +1.5 bet has value, even at 10/17.

Yankees obviously need a win, but their bats just haven't been 100% the way we know they can be. Credit to Texas for this. I think the loss of Mark Teixeira is huge, not only for his bat, but he's made some great defensive plays this postseason too. Cano, again, would be my top HR tip in his absence. But overall I'm looking at the Rangers lineup, and the game 2 boxscore, and I can't help but see Hughes giving up 3 or 4 runs in the first 5 innings.

If I were betting, and again, I am not, these are fancies not tips the log is finished...I'd be looking at Texas 1st half betting, Texas +1.5, Cano anytime homer for Yankees, Michael Young for Texas, and I'd pick inning 2 or 3 as highest scoring.

But basically it all comes down to pressure. Texas Rangers are one game away from their first ever World Series appearance. Yankees have been here already, more than anyone, with huge experience throughout the team and a superior bullpen. Looking at the odds above from PP, and they're right, it's too hard to call to give out decent odds either way. My opinion is a high-scoring game with Rangers edging it. Boxscore from game 2 below if anyone's interested.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2010_10_16_nyamlb_texmlb_1&mode=wrap#boxscore

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

I think the Rangers +1.5 bet has value, even at 10/17.

If I were betting, and again, I am not, these are fancies not tips the log is finished...I'd be looking at Texas 1st half betting, Texas +1.5, Cano anytime homer for Yankees, Michael Young for Texas, and I'd pick inning 2 or 3 as highest scoring.

Don't know if anyone took Rangers last night but it was an easier win for them in the end than I'd thought. Really thought Yankees would pull out a few runs in a must-win game but the pitching of Colby Lewis was just too good. I was surprised to see Yankees handicapped by 1.5 runs and Texas were value for their 5-run winning margin. Texas 1st half betting also came in after a big 5th inning but my HR picks were useless.

Tonight it's Phillies in a must-win situation and I think behind Oswalt, they can do it. They've had similar problems to the Yankees at bat, but when the pressure's on, I fancy Howard and Utley to cause problems. Picks below, again disclaimer is that these are fancies and not researched as thoroughly as the picks earlier in my log. I'm calling this game to Phillies, by 2 or 3 runs.

Philadelphia Phillies(Oswalt)(-1.5 Runs) @ 27/20
Run totals Over (7.0)@ 4/5
1st half match betting - Philadelphia Phillies @ 10/17

Megatitan

8-10 wrote: »

Don't know if anyone took Rangers last night but it was an easier win for them in the end than I'd thought. Really thought Yankees would pull out a few runs in a must-win game but the pitching of Colby Lewis was just too good. I was surprised to see Yankees handicapped by 1.5 runs and Texas were value for their 5-run winning margin. Texas 1st half betting also came in after a big 5th inning but my HR picks were useless.

Tonight it's Phillies in a must-win situation and I think behind Oswalt, they can do it. They've had similar problems to the Yankees at bat, but when the pressure's on, I fancy Howard and Utley to cause problems. Picks below, again disclaimer is that these are fancies and not researched as thoroughly as the picks earlier in my log. I'm calling this game to Phillies, by 2 or 3 runs.

Philadelphia Phillies(Oswalt)(-1.5 Runs) @ 27/20
Run totals Over (7.0)@ 4/5
1st half match betting - Philadelphia Phillies @ 10/17

I went with "1st half match betting - Philadelphia Phillies @ 10/17" but it came as void on the slip. Only noticed there. I didn't see the game but do you know why it was voided??

8-10

Megatitan wrote: »

I went with "1st half match betting - Philadelphia Phillies @ 10/17" but it came as void on the slip. Only noticed there. I didn't see the game but do you know why it was voided??

Yep, it was 2-2 after 5 innings. It's a win only market. You bet on either team being ahead after 5 innings and if it's a tie you get your stake back. Essentially DNB after 5 innings.

My other 2 tips lost anyway, I did watch the whole game however. Phillies just didn't turn up.

As I said before I'm going to do a lot of work on the offseason on the system I outlined in the OP of this thread. I'm collating data on every regular season game in the 2010 season to determine those pitchers that consistently win over 5 innings. Also going into detail on highest scoring innings with various teams and will keep a close eye on trades as always. Should have a new log up and running in March which will be better kept than this one.

Not going to bet on the World Series. Going to be over in the States anyway and won't be able to use gambling sites. For the record I fancy Giants to win 4-1 but it's a great matchup with the 2 form teams. Rangers could easily wipe the floor if their bats continue as they were. The 2 young guys Posey (Giants) and Andrus (Rangers) should hopefully contribute a HR or 2 also, both had very good hitting seasons.

Kinda32

8-10 wrote: »

The 2 young guys Posey (Giants) and Andrus (Rangers) should hopefully contribute a HR or 2 also, both had very good hitting seasons.

Great log and well done with the success, but you might not want to invest too much in Andrus for home runs.. Zero this season in 600 plus ab's.. speedster and great player yes but no home run hitter...

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

For the record I fancy Giants to win 4-1

Did I call that series or what????

8-10

Ok I'm going to resurrect this thread for a while to see how we go. Not sticking to a particular system but I'll go with some picks over a few weeks and see how we get on.

Tonight I'm looking at 5 innings line: Yankees to win (Sabathia) @ 5/8, 5 innings line: A's to win (Cahill) @ 5/8, Angels v White Sox (Haren v Buerle) score in 1st inning - no runs scored @ 20/29, Cardinals v Dodgers (Carpenter v Billingsley) score in 1st inning - no runs scored @ 4/6.

6x Doubles over 4 selections @ €5 a line = €30 staked. All odds taken from Bet365.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Ok I'm going to resurrect this thread for a while to see how we go. Not sticking to a particular system but I'll go with some picks over a few weeks and see how we get on.

Tonight I'm looking at 5 innings line: Yankees to win (Sabathia) @ 5/8, 5 innings line: A's to win (Cahill) @ 5/8, Angels v White Sox (Haren v Buerle) score in 1st inning - no runs scored @ 20/29, Cardinals v Dodgers (Carpenter v Billingsley) score in 1st inning - no runs scored @ 4/6.

6x Doubles over 4 selections @ €5 a line = €30 staked. All odds taken from Bet365.

Well I don't think anyone was paying attention but FWIW it was exactly break even!

Yankees - Push
A's - Win
Cards v Dodgers - Win
Angels v White Sox - Lose

€30 staked, €30 returned. :P

For tonight I'm going a sneaky €5 trixie on 1st half match betting with PP (slightly better than Bet365 tonight) on the following:

Brewers (Marcum) @ evens v Phillies
Giants (Lincecum) @ 10/13 v Rockies
Rangers (Wilson) @ 20/29 v Angels

€20 staked

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

For tonight I'm going a sneaky €5 trixie on 1st half match betting with PP (slightly better than Bet365 tonight) on the following:

Brewers (Marcum) @ evens v Phillies WIN
Giants (Lincecum) @ 10/13 v Rockies WIN
Rangers (Wilson) @ 20/29 v Angels WIN

€20 staked

That's more like the start I wanted. Trixie returns €79.43

Total staked - €50, returned €109.43

ROI = (109.43 - 50)/50 = 118%

Really just 1 winning bet and 1 push so not getting carried away with that figure but it's good to start this year's log off with a big win.

seklly

Followed you with that trixie last night, good start is right!

8-10

Cool! Ok well it would be nice to follow through with something good today but I've spent time looking at each game and respective odds and nothing is really jumping out on me.

I'm not just going to put a bet on for the sake of it. It's funny, I have about 6 or 7 gut feeling picks tonight that I would ordinarily put in a double if I had something to bank on. Trouble is I have nothing to bank on! None are worth a single bet and there's no 2 worth doubling with. Even Halladay is a dodgy bet I reckon! He's the best pitcher you'll see but I expect this game to be closer than the 20/43 odds suggest (5-inning line w/PP)

Ok actually since I'm not putting up anything today I might as well mention my season long bets:

PHI Phillies @ 1/4
SF Giants @ 6/5
BOS Red Sox @ 4/7
MIN Twins @ 8/5
MIL Brewers @ 33/20
TEX Rangers @ 23/20
Six-Folds, 1 bet * €50.00

PHI Phillies @ 1/4
SF Giants @ 6/5
BOS Red Sox @ 4/7
MIN Twins @ 8/5
MIL Brewers @ 33/20
TEX Rangers @ 23/20
Four-Folds, 15 bets * €10.00

I put these on during the offseason, so €200 staked. These are predictions on the division winners. I'm going to re-evaluate at the mid point in the season and try to cover a bit but looking at it now I could probably have waited until the season started as there's 2 of these I might want to change already! (edit- these are Bet365 odds, PP doesn't do multiples)

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Even Halladay is a dodgy bet I reckon! He's the best pitcher you'll see but I expect this game to be closer than the 20/43 odds suggest (5-inning line w/PP)

Well I'm glad I stayed clear. Halladay's first loss of the year and got knocked around 9-0.

Tonight I'm looking at Red Sox line - Over 7.5 runs v Oakland, Phillies (Lee) 1st half match betting, Giants (Cain) 1st half match betting, and Cubs (Garza) 1st half match betting. The latter is on ESPN America if anyone's interested.

In work so can't look up odds but will try and get my picks finalised and bets placed by 6pm if I get out soon. Probably take another look at the above 4 and odds offered and go with 3 of them.

Edit: Ok not enough odds up on PP yet, namely the Cain bet. So I'm taking Red Sox A's over 7.5 @4/5, Phillies 1st half @ 1/2, and Cubs 1st half @ 4/6....3x€5 doubles.

I expect Cain to be in the region of 10/11 later on when PP puts it up but unfortunately Phillies game is in 15mins so no chance of getting the double on before then without going to a different bookie.

€15 staked

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Edit: Ok not enough odds up on PP yet, namely the Cain bet. So I'm taking Red Sox A's over 7.5 @4/5, Phillies 1st half @ 1/2, and Cubs 1st half @ 4/6....3x€5 doubles.

€15 staked

I was feeling physically ill at that Phillies game. Really expected them to bring the bats, Lee pitched as expected against a useful lineup. Basically what happened was Phillies won 4-3, however the bet was on first 5 innings after which they were 3-0 down! They scored 3 runs in the 6th to tie it up and went ahead later but just too late for the bet

Other 2 came in and were close. 8 runs in Red Sox game and Cubs winning 5 innings 1-0. :eek:

So as you were, €15 bet returned exactly €15. Which I'm putting on the following, 3x €5 doubles again.

Philles (Oswalt) @ 20/23
Red Sox (Beckett) @ 8/13
Mariners (Hernandez) @ 4/6

All 1st half match betting (5 innings)

Staked - €15 (I'll update total stake and ROI in the morning after this settles)

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Philles (Oswalt) @ 20/23 WIN
Red Sox (Beckett) @ 8/13 PUSH
Mariners (Hernandez) @ 4/6 WIN

All 1st half match betting (5 innings)

Staked - €15 (I'll update total stake and ROI in the morning after this settles)

€15 returns €33.26

Total staked - €80, returned €157.69

ROI = (157.69 - 80)/80 = 97%

Tonight's games:

Tigers v White Sox - 0 runs in 1st inning @ 10/13 (Verlander v Buehrle and neither team have been hitting too well recently)
Red Sox v Angels - 0 runs in 1st inning @ 10/13 (2 aces against each other - Lester v Haren)
Yankees v Orioles - 1st half betting - Yankees @ 5/9 (poor odds but Sabathia on the mound and don't fancy Baltimore overly troubling him tonight)

As usual, 3x €5 doubles, odds from PP.... €15 staked.

Edit: Since Yankees game is already called off I'm going to put another €5 on a double of Phillies and Giants through 5 innings @ 8/11 and 10/11 respectively. I presume Yankees will be a push or is there 24hr window for postponed games with PP? I can't remember. Tigers v White Sox came in handy. Neither pitcher allowed a base, 3 up 3 down for each in the first, lets hope for the same from Boston and the Angels!

€20 total now staked today

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Tigers v White Sox - 0 runs in 1st inning @ 10/13 (Verlander v Buehrle and neither team have been hitting too well recently) WIN
Red Sox v Angels - 0 runs in 1st inning @ 10/13 (2 aces against each other - Lester v Haren) WIN
Yankees v Orioles - 1st half betting - Yankees @ 5/9 (poor odds but Sabathia on the mound and don't fancy Baltimore overly troubling him tonight) PUSH

I'm going to put another €5 on a double of Phillies and Giants through 5 innings @ 8/11 and 10/11 respectively. LOSE (Phillies bet won, Giants lost.)

€20 staked, returned €33.34

Total staked - €100, returned €191.03

ROI = (191.03 - 100)/100 = 91%

FYI I'm away for the weekend so no more bets before Monday, possibly Tuesday. Happy Easter!

8-10

Feeling bullish after a win on the football earlier so going with a trixie as opposed to my usual 3x €5 doubles!

0 runs in 1st inning:
Rockies v Cubs @ 10/13

1st half match betting:
Phillies (Lee) @ 4/6 v Diamondbacks
Angels (Weaver) @ 20/31 v A's

€5 Trixie...€20 staked.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

0 runs in 1st inning:
Rockies v Cubs @ 10/13 LOSE

1st half match betting:
Phillies (Lee) @ 4/6 v Diamondbacks LOSE
Angels (Weaver) @ 20/31 v A's WIN

€5 Trixie...€20 staked.

Well, first time since I started this last week that we've lost money on a night but there ya go was going to happen sooner rather than later. Not affecting my confidence as I've had time to do more research than usual today and like the odds I'm seeing. Betting as follows:

0 runs in 1st inning:
Royals v Indians @ 5/6

1st Half Match Betting:
Mariners (King Felix) @ 5/6 (great price this I reckon)
Giants (Cain) @ 8/11

For the record I would slightly favour 0 runs in the 2nd inning in the Royals game based on recent starts but odds are out of proportion with my calcs. Fancy Indians to win it tight, but runs scored later on from the bullpen. If someone cracks before then I think it'll be off Luke and I was very close to putting my money on Indians through 5 innings instead but I don't fancy the openers for either team so I think low scores in the first 2 innings is more likely, and none in the 1st the best bet.

Felix Hernandez is not on top form but should get the job done tonight, just need those bats swinging early on. Ditto Cain, watched his last start and he's pitching around the zone with much more control than this time last year. Expect a good few more K's than usual from him tonight.

Edit: forgot the stake! €5 Trixie again, €20 staked

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

0 runs in 1st inning:
Royals v Indians @ 5/6 LOSE

1st Half Match Betting:
Mariners (King Felix) @ 5/6 (great price this I reckon) WIN
Giants (Cain) @ 8/11 LOSE

For the record I would slightly favour 0 runs in the 2nd inning in the Royals game based on recent starts but odds are out of proportion with my calcs. Fancy Indians to win it tight, but runs scored later on from the bullpen.

Yep, 0 runs in 2nd inning, should have backed that but i got greedy. 1 run in the first and Giants hitting late means no return again despite Seattle again winning easily enough under Hernandez.

Tonight, not much happening. 3x €5 doubles on Yankees (Sabathia) @ 20/39, Mets (Capuano) @ 20/21 and Red Sox (Lester) 20/37...through 5 innings. €15 staked.

Total staked - €140, returned €191.03

ROI = (191.03 - 140)/100 = 51%

(In play - €15 - not included above)

8-10

I feel bad with this one because I was out tonight and I am only getting to post now, about 15mins before the start of the games, sorry.

1st half betting:

Red Sox (Lackey) @ 10/19
Marlins (JJ) @ 8/11
Cubs (Garza) @ 11/10

3x €5 doubles. €15 staked

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

3x €5 doubles on Yankees (Sabathia) @ 20/39 WIN, Mets (Capuano) @ 20/21 LOSE and Red Sox (Lester) 20/37 WIN...through 5 innings.

Return €11.65

8-10 wrote: »

Red Sox (Lackey) @ 10/19 LOSE
Marlins (JJ) @ 8/11 WIN
Cubs (Garza) @ 11/10 WIN

Return €18.14

...effectively breaking even. Total staked - €170, returned €220.82

ROI = (220.82 - 170)/170 = 30%

Also just noticed a mistake in my ROI calc late last week, should have been ROI = (191.03 - 140)/140 = 36%...not 51% as I quoted. Very sorry about that, manual calc error dividing by 100 instead of 140.

Tonight I'm going conservative as there's a rake of bets I'll be looking at tomorrow night.

1st half match betting: Angels (Weaver) v Red Sox @ 20/21
0 Runs in 1st inning: Marlins (Vostad) v Cards (Lohse) @ 5/6
0 Runs in 2nd inning: Yankees (Colon) v Tigers (Verlander) @ 8/13

PP odds, 3x €5 doubles

Fursttimer

8-10 wrote: »

Tonight I'm going conservative as there's a rake of bets I'll be looking at tomorrow night.

1st half match betting: Angels (Weaver) v Red Sox @ 20/21
0 Runs in 1st inning: Marlins (Vostad) v Cards (Lohse) @ 5/6
0 Runs in 2nd inning: Yankees (Colon) v Tigers (Verlander) @ 8/13

PP odds, 3x €5 doubles

Who have you gone for in this match

8-10

Fursttimer wrote: »

Who have you gone for in this match

Angels, sorry, that's why I only quoted their pitcher. Good point I'll put my pick in bold or something in future.

Weaver has 6 wins and no losses in his starts this season so 20/21 for them is very nice. I'm guessing the price is due to the fact that he missed his scheduled start yesterday because of flu, but what people are forgetting is that Red Sox's starter tonight, Clay Buchholz, also had a stomach virus yesterday and had to delay his start!

Read into that what you will but 20/21 on a team with a starting pitcher who is 6-0 for the season with a 0.99 ERA is a no-brainer to back, flu or no flu.

Apologies for the pick not being clear. Good luck if you're betting.