8-10's Baseball system log

8-10

Ok when I say 'system' I mean a disciplined strategy that worked decently for me last season on a smaler scale. Give me a few months at this and we'll see if it's worth it overall.

So baseball is probably my all-time favourite sport. I went to school in the USA and have lived here for the past 6 months, although returning to Ireland this week. I am by no means an expert, but I can assure you I watch more baseball the your average American.

What my strategy is is this: I concentrate on starting pitchers. I have a list of 17 pitchers that I typically bet on, but for this I've whittled it down to 12 (wanted 10 but can't leave any out). These 12 are pretty much ace's for the teams they play for.

The bet: when I see 2 of my pitchers starting for their teams, I do a double on both teams winning the first 5 innings for €5. The fact that I'm betting only on the first 5 means that I'm eliminating the risk of relievers and closers screwing up after the starter pitches. Of course the team is tasked with scoring more runs in the first 5 than the starter allows, but I've picked those teams with stronger line-ups and hopefully it'll come off. If scores are tied after 5, you get your money back.

The pitchers:

Matt Cain (San Francisco Giants) - Maybe slightly controversial. He had an impressive 2009 with 14 wins and 8 losses and an ERA of 2.89. Sure he was 15-30 for 3 seasons before that and had definitely turned the corner, but I saw him pitch last season a few times and he's going later and later into games, 8th inning sometimes, and posted a great ERA for the season. SF are poor offensively but I expect Cain to have a good season again, if maybe not quite sub 3.00ERA.

Tim Lincecum (San Francisco Giants) - What can you say? Superstar. 2-time defending NL Cy Young Award winner. And only 25. 15-7 last year with 2.48 ERA. As shocking as I mentioned SF are offensively, you can't not include Lincecum in this.

Chris Carpenter (St Louis Cardinals) - Runner-up to Lincecum in NL Cy Young ballot, Chris lead the NL in ERA last year with 2.24 and a record of 17-4. He also had an 11-game win streak including a 1-hitter in September. Chris also has the advantage of a quality offensive lineup including best-player-in-baseball Albert Pujols and strong hitters David Freese and Skip Schumaker.

Adam Wainwright (St Louis Cardinals) - The second part of what could be argued is the best 1-2 in baseball (Seattle fans may disagree). In any case he's an undoubted ace and had 19-8 with a 2.63 ERA (I'm open to correction but I think he was the only NL pitcher to record 19 wins in 2009)

Cliff Lee (Seattle Mariners) - Ok so I'm obviously including Seattle's 1-2 too! Lee just traded from Phillies after half a season. I was lucky enough to be here in Philadelphia when former AL Cy Young winner Lee went 4-0 in the postseason with a 1.56 ERA in 5 starts. He went 7-9 (3.14) with Cleveland in the AL before swithing leagues and going 7-4 (3.39) in the NL with the Phillies in 2009. I love watching this guy pitch. He works faster than anyone else around at the moment.

Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners) - Seattle's 19 win ace from 2009 (19-5) and a 2.49 ERA, Cliff Lee may be in town but Felix is still number 1. While my judgement is reserved for Mariners retaining Ken Griffey Jr and Suzuki that year older, I think there's still enough firepower (Chone Figgins is a great signing at 3B IMO) for these pitchers to work well (over 5 innings at least!)

Jon Lester (Boston Red Sox) - Although I feel they have the best rotation in baseball, it was hard to pick an ace to include. Beckett was unfortunate to get cut by me at the last. I love the guy, but if I have to put money on one of them it has to be Lester. Dice-K is injured and hurt me a lot with this strategy at the start of last season. Bucholz is still too raw for me, I've been watching him in spring training. Lackey will of course be quality but might to take time to settle. Wakefield is getting on and won't pitch as much, particularly when Dice-K is back. So Lester it is. 15-8 and 3.41 ERA was a very good return, but he's my pick because he goes into the game hot, it takes opposing teams a few innings to get the better of him so for a first 5 innings bet I pick him.

Dan Haren (Arizona Diamondbacks) - I think with Mark Reynolds and Justin Uptons supporting Haren and Brandon Webb if fit (Webb might possibly sub into this strategy later on if he plays like he can), Diamondbacks could do better than the experts predict. It's just a pity Dodgers, Giants and Rockies are in the same division. Haren is another ace you can't ignore, 14-10 with 3.14 ERA, this isn't a fancy, I have no allegiance, I just think Dan will win games this year.

CC Sabathia (New York Yankees) - 19 wins (8 losses), 3.37 ERA, and a World Series for the former Cy Young winner. Speaks for itself.

Justin Verlander (Detroit Tigers) - Tough tough season for Detroit last year and I don't see much better in 2010 with the players they've lost. But they keep Verlander, another 19 game winner in 2009 (9 losses) and an ERA of 3.45. A lot of strength in Justin, with most strikeouts in the AL in 2009 (269), and who also can go deep in games. No fear putting him in this and there's still strength in the offense despite losing the top 2 spots in the order.

Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Phillies) - We're not worthy! Best pitcher in Major League Baseball. Having lived in Toronto I've seen him pitch live a lot. Now living in Philly I'm excited to see him with this line-up behind him. Earmark Phillies for another World Series appearance and I don't even need to look up stats to know that Halladay always will have my money on him.

Zach Greinke (Kansas City Royals) - Finally, the player I really really don't want to include. He's the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and had an astonishing ERA last year of 2.16! With a record of 16-8 he's very very hard to ignore. If he doesn't come out playing like last year I can see me subbing him out of this strategy, but he's earned his place on the back of a cracking season in 2009.


I have a record kept in a spreadsheet. I'll post up prices and results next week when the season gets under way. Hopefully by being disciplined and tracking this I can make a bit more than last year. All prices will be PP. If my pitchers are pitching against each other I won't bet. If 3 or more pitch on the same night I will still do doubles between them.

MickShamrock

Sounds good. Will keep an eye on this thread. :pac:

8-10

Ok so because it's the start of the season, every team will be going with the start of their rotation, ie their ace pitchers! So here's my pitchers and their first starts this week:

Hernandez - Apr 5th
Lee - ? (DL, appealing 5-game suspension)
Cain - Apr 7th
Lincecum - Apr 5th
Carpenter - Apr 5th
Wainwright - Apr 7th
Lester - Apr 6th
Sabathia - Apr 4th
Greinke - Apr 5th
Halladay - Apr 5th
Haren - Apr 5th
Verlander - Apr 5th

So betting looks like this:

Sunday 4th - only Sabathia pitching, no opportunity for a double.
Monday 5th - Opening Night for everyone else, 7 pitchers pitch but Verlander and Greinke on opposing teams so doesn't count. 10 doubles between remaining 5 pitchers = €5x10 = €50 in play
Tuesday 6th - only Lester pitches
Wednesday 7th - Cain and Wainwright pitch, €5 double.

€55 in play up to Wednesday. Odds for first 5 innings don't normally appear on PP until a few hours before the game but I'll post them here when I make the bets. Always good to wait and make sure there's no last minute changes. Although if you bet on a team and the pitcher listed by PP doesn't start, bet is void AFAIK.

jive

sounds good will keep an eye on this. best of luck

8-10

Ok good start, 4 out of 4 pitchers won through 5 innings with Felix Hernandez starting at 3am.

If Seattle are ahead after 5 innings we're looking at €132 back and €82 profit on Day 1....don't want to get ahead of myself! But with the other 4 winning that's 6 out of 10 doubles being successful at least.

FWIW Sabathia also won yesterday, although there was no other pitcher to do the double with. It was actually a perfect example of the advantage of my strategy...Yankees led 5-1 after 5 innings because CC Sabathia started so well and Josh Beckett didn't. However in the 6th and 7th Red Sox rallied and both teams scored off the bullpen. The result was 9-7 to Boston, a big comeback.....but the bet per this strategy still wins, as Yankees won over the first 5 innings.

Right I'm going to bed. Hopefully Seattle complete the day, which I'm pretty proud of so far as they were all easy wins so far.

Edit: they won, 5 out of 5, €82 profit on day 1.

Clemon

8-10 wrote: »

Ok good start, 4 out of 4 pitchers won through 5 innings with Felix Hernandez starting at 3am.

If Seattle are ahead after 5 innings we're looking at €132 back and €82 profit on Day 1....don't want to get ahead of myself! But with the other 4 winning that's 6 out of 10 doubles being successful at least.

FWIW Sabathia also won yesterday, although there was no other pitcher to do the double with. It was actually a perfect example of the advantage of my strategy...Yankees led 5-1 after 5 innings because CC Sabathia started so well and Josh Beckett didn't. However in the 6th and 7th Red Sox rallied and both teams scored off the bullpen. The result was 9-7 to Boston, a big comeback.....but the bet per this strategy still wins, as Yankees won over the first 5 innings.

Right I'm going to bed. Hopefully Seattle complete the day, which I'm pretty proud of so far as they were all easy wins so far.

Edit: they won, 5 out of 5, €82 profit on day 1.

Niiiiiiiice

8-10

Thanks it's been interesting. I've been in Italy and the UK recently and haven't been able to place every bet so I'm very annoyed with myself. I have suspended this log for the timebeing. Afraid it couldn't be helped. Tonight I just went with a lucky 63, €1 per line = €63 on the following:

White Sox (Buerle)
Royals (Greinke)
Phillies (Halladay)
Yankees (Sabathia)
Cardinals (Carpenter)
Hernandez (Mariners)

....over 5 innings.

I really wish I had been able to stick with the system for at least 6 weeks from the start of the season but I'm being thrown everywhere with work right now and can't even see games half the time! So I apologise. I'll post here when there's a few good pitchers on the same night if people want a sneaky accum (for instance the 4 guys above pitching at home tonight would have been worth a fiver) but as far as the system outlined above I can no longer commit to it right now because I'm travelling too much.

UrbanSea

Sorry to be dragging up an old thread but I came across this there. 8-10,you seem to have a pretty good thing going here,do you still use it?

8-10

greetings wrote: »

Sorry to be dragging up an old thread but I came across this there. 8-10,you seem to have a pretty good thing going here,do you still use it?

Unfortunately not.

It's only workable if I can bet everyday. I'm working offsite and abroad at weird hours and the apartment I've been set up in hasn't got internet! Last year was fine but work is too crazy this year for me to even get to see the games. It's only at the weekend that I get to check in on scores really.

But thanks for the bump. I'll definitely have it going next year if things are more settled. They certainly better be!

Quick tip for now....I notice Stan James is quoting Philadelphia at 9/1 to win the National League. I'm watching them tonight and while Braves have been superlative and the NL West is still wide open, I think the price for this team to retain the title, with Doc Halladay on board this time around, is far too long. Only 3.5 games back in the wild card and Doc is pitching a gem tonight against the Rockies as I write this.

I fully expect the Phillies to make it to the playoffs, even if only as the wild card, and once they're there it's anyones and they're well used to postseason pressure. 9/1 or anything close is a bargain!

UrbanSea

Thanks for the words of advice,must throw down a tenner on it or so

8-10

greetings wrote: »

Thanks for the words of advice,must throw down a tenner on it or so

Hope you did! Odds on SJ slashed from 9/1 to 6/1 in a couple of days! Best odds now PP at 15/2.

I was planning on topping up my 9/1 bet ahead of Halladay pitching again tonight (to go 7 wins in a row at home). Victorino is on the disabled list now also so I thought there'd still be good odds around but apparently not. 15/2 still not bad, I can't see it drifting to 9's again anywhere if they keep up good form for the remaining couple of months.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Hope you did! Odds on SJ slashed from 9/1 to 6/1 in a couple of days! Best odds now PP at 15/2.

I was planning on topping up my 9/1 bet ahead of Halladay pitching again tonight (to go 7 wins in a row at home). Victorino is on the disabled list now also so I thought there'd still be good odds around but apparently not. 15/2 still not bad, I can't see it drifting to 9's again anywhere if they keep up good form for the remaining couple of months.

Phillies just signed Dominic Brown and Roy Oswalt. PP still the best bet, now only 11/2. What a difference a week makes!

8-10

Ok guys, mostly for fun, seeing as there's only 3 series to go, I'm going to keep say a €150 bank for the championship games.

Tonight (in about an hour) it's Yankees v Rangers. I'm going with the following:

1st Half Match Betting - Yankees (Sabathia) @ 20/29 - €20
Anytime HR - Mark Teixeira @ 19/10 - €10
Higest Scoring Inning - 3rd @ 6/1 - €5
Higest Scoring Inning - 4th @ 6/1 - €5

Beginning bank - €150
In play - €40
Ending bank - €110

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Ok guys, mostly for fun, seeing as there's only 3 series to go, I'm going to keep say a €150 bank for the championship games.

Tonight (in about an hour) it's Yankees v Rangers. I'm going with the following:

1st Half Match Betting - Yankees (Sabathia) @ 20/29 - €20
Anytime HR - Mark Teixeira @ 19/10 - €10
Higest Scoring Inning - 3rd @ 6/1 - €5
Higest Scoring Inning - 4th @ 6/1 - €5

Beginning bank - €150
In play - €40
Ending bank - €110

A couple of pitches in and I think I've lost all bets the way the 1st inning looks. Ironically I'm cheering for the Rangers anyway!

Ok, I'll put that remaining €10 on Yankees @ 5/2 (in-running price with PP, currently 3-0 to Texas bottom of 1st)

Beginning bank - €150
In play - €50
Ending bank - €100

8-10

1st Half Match Betting - Yankees (Sabathia) @ 20/29 - €20 Lose
Anytime HR - Mark Teixeira @ 19/10 - €10 Lose
Higest Scoring Inning - 3rd @ 6/1 - €5 Lose
Higest Scoring Inning - 4th @ 6/1 - €5 Lose
Yankees to win (in-running) @ 5/2 - €10 Win - rt €35

Bank - €100
+ winnings - €35
Current bank - €135

P/L to €150 starting bank - <€15>

Ok so tonight's matchup, Phillies v Giants, I actually already tipped in the baseball thread so I'll repeat here:

1st inning total runs = 0 runs @ 8/13 - €50
Anytime HR - Shane Victorino @ 13/2 - €10

Starting bank - €135
In play - €60
Current bank - €75

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1st inning total runs = 0 runs @ 8/13 - €50 Win
Anytime HR - Shane Victorino @ 13/2 - €10 Lose

Starting bank - €135
In play - €60
Current bank - €75

Bank - €75
+ winnings - €80.77
Current bank - €155.77

P/L to €150 starting bank - + €5.77

Ok so tonight is an off-day for the Yankees/Rangers before Game 3 in the Bronx tomorrow. But odds are up anyway. I'm going with my typical double on first 5 innings: Oswalt for Phillies and Lee for Rangers.

DOUBLE: Texas Rangers 1st half match betting @ 4/5 + Philadelphia Phillies 1st half match betting @ 8/13 - €30 (pays 87.23)

Also have a look at 8th inning 2 or more runs @ 31/10 - €10

Also Aubrey Huff anytime HR @ 15/4 - €5

And my rounding 77c will go on highest scoring inning - 6th @ 29/5 - €0.77

Beginning Bank - €155.77
In Play - €45.77
Current Bank - €110

cup of tea

backed the double there 8-10, like the look of this log.Shame I know jack **** about baseball but still seems like a value bet if anything from the reasoning.

8-10

cup of tea wrote: »

backed the double there 8-10, like the look of this log.Shame I know jack **** about baseball but still seems like a value bet if anything from the reasoning.

Yeah the double is my bet of choice when there's 2 pitchers I like. This isn't a log really though, I didn't get to do it this season but I'll revisit in the new year and hopefully follow through next season.

Just having a few flutters with the postseason games out of interest. The high-scoring innings and anytime HR bets have a degree of reasoning in them but are more fancies.

As I've said loads of times, it's very hard to find value in baseball. I confess to having only seen Sanchez a couple of times this season but Oswalt's been so good that I'm confident in Phillies through 5 innings tonight.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Also Aubrey Huff anytime HR @ 15/4 - €5

:mad: I am raging. I was looking for odds on Cody Ross anytime HR and PP didn't have the market. They have every other hitter on both sides but no market for Ross so I plumped for Huff. Even now they have in-running markets on all 9 Phillies hitters, but only 8 out of 9 Giants, missing Cody Ross!?!

And guess who just went deep with a HR, Cody Ross. I know it's easy to say now after he hit it, but honestly that's where I wanted my money to be. I have no idea why he's missing from PP.

Anyway, not happy, Huff better come good now. It's currently 1-1 middle of 5th so my half of the double can't lose, but Phillies need to score this inning or else it's a push.

Speaking of which, I can't remember how a double is calculated with 1 win and 1 push? Is it half the push odds in a double? I know I should know this!

El Horseboxo

Lets say you put 20 on a double in which one bet is 2/1 and the other is 1/2. If the 1/2 is the push and the 2/1 is the winner you will be paid out on the 2/1 bet at 20 stake. The 1/2 bet becomes void and the bet effectively becomes a single.

8-10

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Lets say you put 20 on a double in which one bet is 2/1 and the other is 1/2. If the 1/2 is the push and the 2/1 is the winner you will be paid out on the 2/1 bet at 20 stake. The 1/2 bet becomes void and the bet effectively becomes a single.

Gotcha yeah that's it. I was over complicating it myself with a recent one. The first part of my double came in anyway.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Also have a look at 8th inning 2 or more runs @ 31/10 - €10 Lose

Also Aubrey Huff anytime HR @ 15/4 - €5 Lose

And my rounding 77c will go on highest scoring inning - 6th @ 29/5 - €0.77 Lose

Well that was useless. Was looking for runs in the 6th and 8th, turned out that the 7th was the highest scoring with 4. Also as I said before I'm annoyed that I had to put money on Huff and not Ross but w/e.

Still In Play - €30
Current Bank - €110

Tonight is Rangers v Yankees in NY. It really depends on which Andy Pettitte shows up. Realistically though we've got 2 super postseason pitchers on the mound so might be another low-scoring game. I'll take a bit of no 1st inning runs again. As for anytime HR I'm going with Josh Hamilton of Texas who is .500 with 1 HR against Pettitte, and Jorge Posada of NY who has 2HR's from 17 at bats against Lee.

Anytime HR - Josh Hamilton @ 13/5 - €5
Anytime HR - Jorge Posada @ 15/4 - €5
1st inning total - 0 runs @ 10/13 - €20

Starting Bank - €110
In play - €60
Current Bank - €80

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

DOUBLE: Texas Rangers 1st half match betting @ 4/5 + Philadelphia Phillies 1st half match betting @ 8/13 - €30 (pays 87.23) Win (87.23)

Anytime HR - Josh Hamilton @ 13/5 - €5 Win (18)
1st inning total - 0 runs @ 10/13 - €20 Lose

Double came in, phew! Texas scored in the 1st inning, so spoiled my bet, but it was a Josh Hamilton HR and that ensured the double came in as 2nd - 5th innings were scoreless so I can't complain!

Starting Bank - €80
Still in Play - €5
Current Bank - €185.23

P/L to €150 starting bank - + €35.23

Slowly but surely! Had a good look at the in-running betting for this game but nothing takes my fancy. Going to leave it at that. Early game tomorrow, 1pm local but 9pm Ireland. Still, means bed at a more reasonable hour. I'll take a good look in the morning and make some picks.

cup of tea

thanks for that tastly double 8-10.Keep up the posting

8-10

Anytime HR - Jorge Posada @ 15/4 - €5 Lose

Alrighty quite a few picks here. Last time I went Texas and Phillies through 5innings, this time it's the opposites! AJ Burnett for Yankees and Matt Cain for SF are pitchers I follow. Not as confident about Cain as I am with AJ because of Hamels on the mound and Phillies hitters growing in confidence, but SF at home and Cain is the first pitcher I mentioned in the first post of this thread so I'll stick behind him. AJ is a risk too obviously, a shocking regular season and hasn't pitched in 17 days. However I'm really not as worried as others about him. This is the postseason, and Yankees need a win. I'm basically gambling more on Yankees starting to hit freely rather than AJ pitching exceedingly well. Also still liking the 0 runs in first inning bet so I'm going with a double on that in both games too.

DOUBLE: San Francisco Giants 1st half match betting @ 10/11 + New York Yankees 1st half match betting @ 5/7 - €20

DOUBLE: 1st inning total runs - 0 runs in SF/Phillies game @ 20/41, in NY/Texas game @ 20/21 - €20

Home Run Market:

In Phillies game, I'm going to be boring and put money on Chase Utley. That's the only one that stands out. For the Yankees, I'm picking 2 hitters for a HR since I expect them to come out guns blazing tonight. A-Rod and Teixeira too short for me, Cano is due a big one and Curtis Granderson hits well against Hunter so they're my 2 in that one:

Chase Utley - Anytime HR @ 57/20 - €5
Robinson Cano - Anytime HR @ 4/1 - €5
Curtis Granderson - Anytime HR @ 31/10 - €5

And then some other fancies on innings and no of runs tonight, very hard to call and I generally suck on these markets so treat with care:

Rangers/Yankees - 8th inning total runs - 2 or more @ 12/5 - €5
Phillies/Giants - 5th inning total runs - 2 or more @ 4/1 - €5
Phillies/Giants - highest scoring inning - 3rd inning @ 6/1 - €5

DOUBLE: Phillies/Giants - Total Home Team (Giants) runs - OVER 3.0 @ 5/6
Rangers/Yankees - Total Away Team (Rangers) runs - UNDER 4.0 @ 5/6 - €20

Starting Bank - €185.23
In Play - €90
Current Bank - €95.23

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

DOUBLE: San Francisco Giants 1st half match betting @ 10/11 + New York Yankees 1st half match betting @ 5/7 - €20 Win (ret65.45)

DOUBLE: 1st inning total runs - 0 runs in SF/Phillies game @ 20/41, in NY/Texas game @ 20/21 - €20 Win (58.10)

Chase Utley - Anytime HR @ 57/20 - €5 Lose
Robinson Cano - Anytime HR @ 4/1 - €5 Win (25)
Curtis Granderson - Anytime HR @ 31/10 - €5 Still In Play
Rangers/Yankees - 8th inning total runs - 2 or more @ 12/5 - €5 Still In Play
Phillies/Giants - 5th inning total runs - 2 or more @ 4/1 - €5 Lose
Phillies/Giants - highest scoring inning - 3rd inning @ 6/1 - €5 Lose

DOUBLE: Phillies/Giants - Total Home Team (Giants) runs - OVER 3.0 @ 5/6
Rangers/Yankees - Total Away Team (Rangers) runs - UNDER 4.0 @ 5/6 - €20 Lose (Giants exactly 3.0)

Yet again I look for runs in 2 innings (3rd and 5th in Phillies game), and get them in the middle (4th inning highest scoring with 2)

Also Utley had a 0-4 nightmare and Giants scored exactly 3.0 runs so the bookies got the line spot on.

But Cano hit a 4/1 homer (controversial but I'll take it) and my 2 other doubles came in so I'm up with 2 bets still in play. Time for bed.

Starting Bank - €95.23
Still in Play - €10
Current Bank - €243.78

P/L to €150 starting bank - + €93.78

I make that 62% profit in 4 days with €10 still in play.....not too shabby! (% is correct yeah? It's late)

L'prof

8-10 wrote: »

Yet again I look for runs in 2 innings (3rd and 5th in Phillies game), and get them in the middle (4th inning highest scoring with 2)

Also Utley had a 0-4 nightmare and Giants scored exactly 3.0 runs so the bookies got the line spot on.

But Cano hit a 4/1 homer (controversial but I'll take it) and my 2 other doubles came in so I'm up with 2 bets still in play. Time for bed.

Starting Bank - €95.23
Still in Play - €10
Current Bank - €243.78

P/L to €150 starting bank - + €93.78

I make that 62% profit in 4 days with €10 still in play.....not too shabby! (% is correct yeah? It's late)

Fair play man, impressive stuff. Percentage is right, but I think people are more interested in ROI here!

8-10

L'prof wrote: »

Fair play man, impressive stuff. Percentage is right, but I think people are more interested in ROI here!

Gotcha. Ok, I worked it out over 5 days, as the bets I made on the 16th referred to a game that was actually on the 15th US time so I'm going with the dates of the scheduled games over there.

Games on 15th:

Staked - €50
Returned - €35

16th:

Staked - €60
Returned - €80.77

17th:

Staked - €45.77
Returned - €87.23

18th:

Staked - €30
Returned - €18

19th:

Staked - €90
Returned - €148.55

To date:

Staked - 275.77
Returned - 369.55

So ROI = (369.55 - 275.77)/275.77 = 34% ROI (this correct?)

8-10

Ok this is where the profits tumble. A few doubles that I'm not 100% confident on at all. And a couple of HR fancies.

Honestly I could easily lose every bet here tonight and if it was only the regular season I wouldn't be betting on these games at all. Straight win market for Phillies is 20/21, and for Giants 20/23.....that shows you how hard a game it is to call.

However, mainly because I don't have confidence in Joe Blanton, I'm going after the Giants again.

NY badly need a win but Texas have won every game on the road and CC was poor last outing. Slightly edgin toward Yankees. So I'm going to place the bets anyway as this is only out of interest and there's only a few games left but I wouldn't advise following any of them!

DOUBLE: New York Yankees(Sabathia)(-1.5 Runs) @ 5/4 + San Francisco Giants(Bumgarner)(-1.5 Runs)@ 7/4 - €15 (ret €63.10)

DOUBLE: 1st Innings Total Runs - Yankees/Rangers - 0 runs @ 5/6 + Phillies/Giants - 1 run @ 3/1 - €15 (110)

DOUBLE: 1st half match betting - NY Yankees @ 4/7 + SF Giants @ 20/23 - €15 (44.07)

DOUBLE: Total Home Team (Yankees) runs OVER 4.5 @ 5/6 + 1st half total betting Phillies/Giants OVER 4.3 @ evens - €20 (73.33)

Anytime HR:

Cody Ross @ 6/1 - €5
Nick Swisher @ 31/10 - €5

9th inning:

DOUBLE: Phillies/Giants - UNDER 1.5 runs @ 1.7 + Yankees/Rangers - 2 or more runs @ 17/4 - €10 (60)

Also, this is the best price you will get for Yankees winning the World Series this year as they are 1 game from elimination. With that in mind, I'm sticking a tenner on them as I think there's a little value there. Yankees to win World Series @ 14/1 - €10


Starting Bank - €243.78
In Play - €105
Current Bank - €138.78

L'prof

8-10 wrote: »

So ROI = (369.55 - 275.77)/275.77 = 34% ROI (this correct?)

Yep, looks good to me and quite an impressive figure too. Well done.

8-10

L'prof wrote: »

Yep, looks good to me and quite an impressive figure too. Well done.

Thanks, as I said it could all easily be wiped out tonight. Once the season gets going again in March I'll keep a properly disciplined log on a set system. I'm just going with fancies for the championship games out of interest for 2 weeks.

In fact, seeing as I'm going over to the States next week I likely won't have posts about the World Series.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

DOUBLE: 1st Innings Total Runs - Yankees/Rangers - 0 runs @ 5/6 + Phillies/Giants - 1 run @ 3/1 - €15 (110)

DOUBLE: 1st half match betting - NY Yankees @ 4/7 + SF Giants @ 20/23 - €15 (44.07)

DOUBLE: Total Home Team (Yankees) runs OVER 4.5 @ 5/6 + 1st half total betting Phillies/Giants OVER 4.3 @ evens - €20 (73.33)

Anytime HR:

Nick Swisher @ 31/10 - €5

Proud of myself for the way I called this Yankee game, but the Giants could still ruin everything!

1st half of 3 of my doubles are in, half on 1 other is on course to come in and 5th is looking unlikely.

Also Swisher got me a HR just like that, delighted. Need at least 2 doubles to come in though to have a success. 1 run in the 1st??? 3/1?? What was I thinking! :mad:

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1 run in the 1st??? 3/1?? What was I thinking! :mad:

It just came in, unreal. €110 back on €15 double, covers my bets for the night.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

DOUBLE: New York Yankees(Sabathia)(-1.5 Runs) @ 5/4 + San Francisco Giants(Bumgarner)(-1.5 Runs)@ 7/4 - €15 (ret €63.10) Still in play

DOUBLE: 1st Innings Total Runs - Yankees/Rangers - 0 runs @ 5/6 + Phillies/Giants - 1 run @ 3/1 - €15 Win (110)

DOUBLE: 1st half match betting - NY Yankees @ 4/7 + SF Giants @ 20/23 - €15 (44.07) Lose

DOUBLE: Total Home Team (Yankees) runs OVER 4.5 @ 5/6 + 1st half total betting Phillies/Giants OVER 4.3 @ evens - €20 Win (73.33)

Anytime HR:

Cody Ross @ 6/1 - €5 Still in play
Nick Swisher @ 31/10 - €5 Win (20.50)

9th inning:

DOUBLE: Phillies/Giants - UNDER 1.5 runs @ 1.7 + Yankees/Rangers - 2 or more runs @ 17/4 - €10 (60) Lose

Yankees to win World Series @ 14/1 - €10 Still in play

A couple of good wins on doubles. I'm going to bed so 2 bets still in play on the later game (plus the Yankees bet which rides until their elimination). My aim starting this 6 days ago was to double my money by the end of the World Series which ends early November. Now with the past couple of days I've achieved that after 9 postseason games. Lots of luck but I am happy at a lot of my predictions, especially given the amount of research.

Starting Bank - €138.78
In Play - €30
Current Bank - €342.61

Profit to €150 starting bank - + €192.61 (128%)

Total - 380.77
Returned - 573.38

ROI = (573.38 - 380.77)/380.77 = 50.6% ROI

3 bets still in play, however very very unlikely any will come in at this stage so looks like that's it. Not sure if I will continue with the thread.

EDIT: I'm assuming my double with SF winning 1st half won't win, currently 4-3 down in 5th inning so they'd need 2 more runs soon.2nd EDIT: Yep, lost! :P

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

DOUBLE: New York Yankees(Sabathia)(-1.5 Runs) @ 5/4 + San Francisco Giants(Bumgarner)(-1.5 Runs)@ 7/4 - €15 (ret €63.10) Lose

Anytime HR:

Cody Ross @ 6/1 - €5 Lose

Yankees to win World Series @ 14/1 - €10 Still in Play

Ok, just updating on the last couple of bets from last night's game. Ross didn't homer and SF won by a single run so it was actully close to coming in but no dice.

Anyway I'm taking the money and quitting. Terrific profit after 9 games and I don't think anyone was really following this log anyway so I'll let it die!

In Play - €10
Current Bank - €342.61

Stays the same: Profit to €150 starting bank - + €192.61 (128%) 50.6% ROI

DaDartle

8-10-

Don't end the thread. Keep it up, at least through the League Series'. It's proved quite interesting.

8-10

DaDartle wrote: »

8-10-

Don't end the thread. Keep it up, at least through the League Series'. It's proved quite interesting.

Ah sorry buddy, I'm not putting any money on myself so it's hard to just tip for the sake of it. I mean look at the market for the Halladay v Lincecum game tonight! Absolutely impossible to call and virtually no value anywhere.

Again, no runs in the 1st inning looks likely, but at 4/7 there'd have to be something decent in the Yankees game to double with, not worth it on it's own.

The only slight value I see is 9th inning highest scoring @ 8/1. I think it should maybe be slightly shorter as we're not going to see too much scoring in the first half of the game and it might be won at the end. But there's always the liklihood of only 1 team batting the 9th. The only reason I'd look here is because I think Brad Lidge is hot and cold in big pressure situations. I would have expected a 6/1 or 13/2 market so 8/1 is slight value in my book, but I won't be backing it.

I don't feel confident enough in my knowledge of the starters in the Yankees' game so staying clear. I include a screenshot below to show how riculous the odds are. How do you call a game like this and back something???

Anytime HR, my money would be on Chase Utley for the Phillies as he's really due I reckon. Again not going to bother at those odds.

Best of luck if having a flutter, I had always planned to stop this if I doubled my money. I'll be watching both games anyway. I'll feel a lot more confident in this log come March when I'll start afresh. Still have my €10 on Yankees in play @ 14/1 before they won yesterday, now best price is 6/1. Though they'll still have to face Cliff Lee if they win tonight. Hmm.

coughlan08

well done man,great to see a succussful log,,
you obviously know your stuff,
took the giants from ya yesterday,
close game but money in the bag so thanks.

dont give into the pressure of having a bet..:pac:wise man...;)

cup of tea

Should defintiely continue...unfortunately missed your last winning double.

8-10

Looking at tomorrow night's (incorrectly said tonight up above - sorry, I mean Friday night in any case, I guess it's now Friday morning) game between Yankees and Texas, particularly paying attention to Game 2 of this series with same pitchers....and I think I have to call it in favour of the Rangers. I think there will be runs in this game, possibly over 9 which is the line PP is going with. And I definitely think it will be closer than the 7-2 game 2 result. Given that it was a 5-run game that time in favour of Texas, I think the Rangers +1.5 bet has value, even at 10/17.

Yankees obviously need a win, but their bats just haven't been 100% the way we know they can be. Credit to Texas for this. I think the loss of Mark Teixeira is huge, not only for his bat, but he's made some great defensive plays this postseason too. Cano, again, would be my top HR tip in his absence. But overall I'm looking at the Rangers lineup, and the game 2 boxscore, and I can't help but see Hughes giving up 3 or 4 runs in the first 5 innings.

If I were betting, and again, I am not, these are fancies not tips the log is finished...I'd be looking at Texas 1st half betting, Texas +1.5, Cano anytime homer for Yankees, Michael Young for Texas, and I'd pick inning 2 or 3 as highest scoring.

But basically it all comes down to pressure. Texas Rangers are one game away from their first ever World Series appearance. Yankees have been here already, more than anyone, with huge experience throughout the team and a superior bullpen. Looking at the odds above from PP, and they're right, it's too hard to call to give out decent odds either way. My opinion is a high-scoring game with Rangers edging it. Boxscore from game 2 below if anyone's interested.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2010_10_16_nyamlb_texmlb_1&mode=wrap#boxscore

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

I think the Rangers +1.5 bet has value, even at 10/17.

If I were betting, and again, I am not, these are fancies not tips the log is finished...I'd be looking at Texas 1st half betting, Texas +1.5, Cano anytime homer for Yankees, Michael Young for Texas, and I'd pick inning 2 or 3 as highest scoring.

Don't know if anyone took Rangers last night but it was an easier win for them in the end than I'd thought. Really thought Yankees would pull out a few runs in a must-win game but the pitching of Colby Lewis was just too good. I was surprised to see Yankees handicapped by 1.5 runs and Texas were value for their 5-run winning margin. Texas 1st half betting also came in after a big 5th inning but my HR picks were useless.

Tonight it's Phillies in a must-win situation and I think behind Oswalt, they can do it. They've had similar problems to the Yankees at bat, but when the pressure's on, I fancy Howard and Utley to cause problems. Picks below, again disclaimer is that these are fancies and not researched as thoroughly as the picks earlier in my log. I'm calling this game to Phillies, by 2 or 3 runs.

Philadelphia Phillies(Oswalt)(-1.5 Runs) @ 27/20
Run totals Over (7.0)@ 4/5
1st half match betting - Philadelphia Phillies @ 10/17

Megatitan

8-10 wrote: »

Don't know if anyone took Rangers last night but it was an easier win for them in the end than I'd thought. Really thought Yankees would pull out a few runs in a must-win game but the pitching of Colby Lewis was just too good. I was surprised to see Yankees handicapped by 1.5 runs and Texas were value for their 5-run winning margin. Texas 1st half betting also came in after a big 5th inning but my HR picks were useless.

Tonight it's Phillies in a must-win situation and I think behind Oswalt, they can do it. They've had similar problems to the Yankees at bat, but when the pressure's on, I fancy Howard and Utley to cause problems. Picks below, again disclaimer is that these are fancies and not researched as thoroughly as the picks earlier in my log. I'm calling this game to Phillies, by 2 or 3 runs.

Philadelphia Phillies(Oswalt)(-1.5 Runs) @ 27/20
Run totals Over (7.0)@ 4/5
1st half match betting - Philadelphia Phillies @ 10/17

I went with "1st half match betting - Philadelphia Phillies @ 10/17" but it came as void on the slip. Only noticed there. I didn't see the game but do you know why it was voided??

8-10

Megatitan wrote: »

I went with "1st half match betting - Philadelphia Phillies @ 10/17" but it came as void on the slip. Only noticed there. I didn't see the game but do you know why it was voided??

Yep, it was 2-2 after 5 innings. It's a win only market. You bet on either team being ahead after 5 innings and if it's a tie you get your stake back. Essentially DNB after 5 innings.

My other 2 tips lost anyway, I did watch the whole game however. Phillies just didn't turn up.

As I said before I'm going to do a lot of work on the offseason on the system I outlined in the OP of this thread. I'm collating data on every regular season game in the 2010 season to determine those pitchers that consistently win over 5 innings. Also going into detail on highest scoring innings with various teams and will keep a close eye on trades as always. Should have a new log up and running in March which will be better kept than this one.

Not going to bet on the World Series. Going to be over in the States anyway and won't be able to use gambling sites. For the record I fancy Giants to win 4-1 but it's a great matchup with the 2 form teams. Rangers could easily wipe the floor if their bats continue as they were. The 2 young guys Posey (Giants) and Andrus (Rangers) should hopefully contribute a HR or 2 also, both had very good hitting seasons.

Kinda32

8-10 wrote: »

The 2 young guys Posey (Giants) and Andrus (Rangers) should hopefully contribute a HR or 2 also, both had very good hitting seasons.

Great log and well done with the success, but you might not want to invest too much in Andrus for home runs.. Zero this season in 600 plus ab's.. speedster and great player yes but no home run hitter...

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

For the record I fancy Giants to win 4-1

Did I call that series or what????

8-10

Ok I'm going to resurrect this thread for a while to see how we go. Not sticking to a particular system but I'll go with some picks over a few weeks and see how we get on.

Tonight I'm looking at 5 innings line: Yankees to win (Sabathia) @ 5/8, 5 innings line: A's to win (Cahill) @ 5/8, Angels v White Sox (Haren v Buerle) score in 1st inning - no runs scored @ 20/29, Cardinals v Dodgers (Carpenter v Billingsley) score in 1st inning - no runs scored @ 4/6.

6x Doubles over 4 selections @ €5 a line = €30 staked. All odds taken from Bet365.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Ok I'm going to resurrect this thread for a while to see how we go. Not sticking to a particular system but I'll go with some picks over a few weeks and see how we get on.

Tonight I'm looking at 5 innings line: Yankees to win (Sabathia) @ 5/8, 5 innings line: A's to win (Cahill) @ 5/8, Angels v White Sox (Haren v Buerle) score in 1st inning - no runs scored @ 20/29, Cardinals v Dodgers (Carpenter v Billingsley) score in 1st inning - no runs scored @ 4/6.

6x Doubles over 4 selections @ €5 a line = €30 staked. All odds taken from Bet365.

Well I don't think anyone was paying attention but FWIW it was exactly break even!

Yankees - Push
A's - Win
Cards v Dodgers - Win
Angels v White Sox - Lose

€30 staked, €30 returned. :P

For tonight I'm going a sneaky €5 trixie on 1st half match betting with PP (slightly better than Bet365 tonight) on the following:

Brewers (Marcum) @ evens v Phillies
Giants (Lincecum) @ 10/13 v Rockies
Rangers (Wilson) @ 20/29 v Angels

€20 staked

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

For tonight I'm going a sneaky €5 trixie on 1st half match betting with PP (slightly better than Bet365 tonight) on the following:

Brewers (Marcum) @ evens v Phillies WIN
Giants (Lincecum) @ 10/13 v Rockies WIN
Rangers (Wilson) @ 20/29 v Angels WIN

€20 staked

That's more like the start I wanted. Trixie returns €79.43

Total staked - €50, returned €109.43

ROI = (109.43 - 50)/50 = 118%

Really just 1 winning bet and 1 push so not getting carried away with that figure but it's good to start this year's log off with a big win.

seklly

Followed you with that trixie last night, good start is right!

8-10

Cool! Ok well it would be nice to follow through with something good today but I've spent time looking at each game and respective odds and nothing is really jumping out on me.

I'm not just going to put a bet on for the sake of it. It's funny, I have about 6 or 7 gut feeling picks tonight that I would ordinarily put in a double if I had something to bank on. Trouble is I have nothing to bank on! None are worth a single bet and there's no 2 worth doubling with. Even Halladay is a dodgy bet I reckon! He's the best pitcher you'll see but I expect this game to be closer than the 20/43 odds suggest (5-inning line w/PP)

Ok actually since I'm not putting up anything today I might as well mention my season long bets:

PHI Phillies @ 1/4
SF Giants @ 6/5
BOS Red Sox @ 4/7
MIN Twins @ 8/5
MIL Brewers @ 33/20
TEX Rangers @ 23/20
Six-Folds, 1 bet * €50.00

PHI Phillies @ 1/4
SF Giants @ 6/5
BOS Red Sox @ 4/7
MIN Twins @ 8/5
MIL Brewers @ 33/20
TEX Rangers @ 23/20
Four-Folds, 15 bets * €10.00

I put these on during the offseason, so €200 staked. These are predictions on the division winners. I'm going to re-evaluate at the mid point in the season and try to cover a bit but looking at it now I could probably have waited until the season started as there's 2 of these I might want to change already! (edit- these are Bet365 odds, PP doesn't do multiples)

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Even Halladay is a dodgy bet I reckon! He's the best pitcher you'll see but I expect this game to be closer than the 20/43 odds suggest (5-inning line w/PP)

Well I'm glad I stayed clear. Halladay's first loss of the year and got knocked around 9-0.

Tonight I'm looking at Red Sox line - Over 7.5 runs v Oakland, Phillies (Lee) 1st half match betting, Giants (Cain) 1st half match betting, and Cubs (Garza) 1st half match betting. The latter is on ESPN America if anyone's interested.

In work so can't look up odds but will try and get my picks finalised and bets placed by 6pm if I get out soon. Probably take another look at the above 4 and odds offered and go with 3 of them.

Edit: Ok not enough odds up on PP yet, namely the Cain bet. So I'm taking Red Sox A's over 7.5 @4/5, Phillies 1st half @ 1/2, and Cubs 1st half @ 4/6....3x€5 doubles.

I expect Cain to be in the region of 10/11 later on when PP puts it up but unfortunately Phillies game is in 15mins so no chance of getting the double on before then without going to a different bookie.

€15 staked