Peak Oil at 2014?

Waestrel

Waestrel wrote: »

On a related note - how likely is it that the irish offshore will ever yield oil? I would imagine that oil would need to be above 100$ to make exploration and production in the Rockall etc profitable?

I think that your cost guestimates says it all, as in never!

Unless the demand for $100+ oil (in today’s) money ever materialises again.

Markcheese

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think that your cost guestimates says it all, as in never!

Unless the demand for $100+ oil (in today’s) money ever materialises again.

How " proven " are reserves in Rockall ..
Doubt it'll be too long before oil hits the $100 again -even then Rockall's a long way from anywhere ...

Waestrel

Markcheese wrote: »

How " proven " are reserves in Rockall ..
Doubt it'll be too long before oil hits the $100 again -even then Rockall's a long way from anywhere ...

Oil might never again hot 100 for any serious length of time - economic substitution for oil in the economy is well under way with people shifting to electric cars/hybrids, the growth of solar, wind, biomass and geothermal in all parts of the energy mix and overall efficiency gains. These will all destroy demand for oil in the global economy, heading towards 100% green energy by 2050.

worth a read
http://www.singularity2050.com/2011/07/the-end-of-petrotyranny.html

We're going to need a major change in the way people live and a huge change in their expectations if we're going to get anywhere near that goal.

Over 90% of all current energy is derived from fossil fuels and our current lifestyles are built around that "cheap & plentiful" fuel. When it gets expensive & scarce, a lot of things that are taken for granted will become the exception, rather than the norm.

omicron

Deleted User wrote: »

We're going to need a major change in the way people live and a huge change in their expectations if we're going to get anywhere near that goal.

Over 90% of all current energy is derived from fossil fuels and our current lifestyles are built around that "cheap & plentiful" fuel. When it gets expensive & scarce, a lot of things that are taken for granted will become the exception, rather than the norm.

I think the point being made here is that oil at higher prices will soon (next 20 to 30 years) be more expensive than some renewable sources as the cost of renewables continues to fall and battery technology etc, continues to improve.

Markcheese

But isn't part of the problem the whole yoyoing of oil prices ( and the other fossil fuels) . High oil price kills demand - and depresses economies. It encourages research into renewables - as demand for oil slows the price of oil drops. So investment in renewables slows -renewable and energy saving startups go bust -
Low oil price then stimulates economic activity encouraging use of oil - and here we go again -

Oregano_State

Deleted User wrote: »

We're going to need a major change in the way people live and a huge change in their expectations if we're going to get anywhere near that goal.

Over 90% of all current energy is derived from fossil fuels and our current lifestyles are built around that "cheap & plentiful" fuel. When it gets expensive & scarce, a lot of things that are taken for granted will become the exception, rather than the norm.

Changes in the way people live happen gradually, continuously, and naturally. How many people you know had a smart phone ten years ago, for example? The relative cost of renewable energy sources is going down, and will keep doing so as interest in and acceptance of these technologies becomes more widespread. Solar-based technology alone has made massive advances in the past 5 years or so. The first grid-connected wave-powered station has been opened in Australia in the past few months.

The high price of oil, on average, over the past ten years has seen a big push for exploration and fracking, in particular, has opened up huge quantities of energy that potentially could be harnessed, if oil is at the right price. With the relatively low oil prices right now, that demand is not as strong, but it does not mean that the advances made in renewable tech have disappeared. Car manufacturers are continuing to move towards hybrid and plug-in type platforms, and this will only pick up pace over the next few years as the next generation of batteries becomes available, allowing EVs to have a comparable range to ICE vehicles.

The change in where we source our energy from will not happen overnight, but at the moment there's an over-supply of fossil fuels, which is at odds completely with what you've been saying here over the past year or more. The lay-offs in the oil industry are down to demand, not supply, and there are enough fields (oil and gas) out there that they're sitting on to cover an initial surge in demand, if and when that takes place, until they have time to roll out new large-scale exploration programmes. In short, I don't foresee a doomsday scenario with booming energy costs any time soon.

Yes, I tend to concur with most of that, what has happened is the convergence of several opposing trends that have resulted in the current surplus.

Capt'n Midnight

omicron wrote: »

battery technology etc, continues to improve.

We're still mainly using lead acid. The key breakthrough there was in 1880.

Lithium can compete on weight. But it's the same volume as NiMH. And Lead acid beats both on price. But there are cheaper technologies than Lithium out there and ones with greater longevity which don't need to be treated with kid gloves all the time.

recedite

Tesla seems to be at the forefront of battery technology.

Tesla was working on a battery that collects energy from the sun during the day and stores it for use at night when people are home

Presumably it would also work for wind turbines, which would allow people to bypass the ESB reluctance to reimburse people properly for exporting microgenerated power to the grid.

Capt'n Midnight

Markcheese wrote: »

But isn't part of the problem the whole yoyoing of oil prices ( and the other fossil fuels) . High oil price kills demand - and depresses economies. It encourages research into renewables - as demand for oil slows the price of oil drops. So investment in renewables slows -renewable and energy saving startups go bust -
Low oil price then stimulates economic activity encouraging use of oil - and here we go again -

I can see a point where we use renewable energy to recover fossil fuel for economic and carbon reasons. It's a strange way of storing renewable energy. But we already store fossil fuel energy in nuclear. It takes a long time, roughly 9 years of operation, for a nuclear power plant to even begin to approach carbon neutral when you take into account all the inputs during construction, operation and mining. And future ores will be take more energy to extract and process.

Impetus

“ It is well-known that the ultimate oil recovery of any field in the world is only determined when the production management decides to abandon the field for good. This does not occur until the projected oil revenues fall below expected costs and human ingenuity is unable to reverse this relationship.”

We have a massive over-supply (in terms of pumping and storing crude) at the moment... hyped up by American shale oil, which is problematic in terms of environmental damage and shelf life. And a declining oil output trajectory. This is deflecting the focus from sustainable sources. The powers that be who allow this trend to continue have a case to answer. Assuming they work in a democratic country.

Impetus

Impetus wrote: »

“ It is well-known that the ultimate oil recovery of any field in the world is only determined when the production management decides to abandon the field for good. This does not occur until the projected oil revenues fall below expected costs and human ingenuity is unable to reverse this relationship.”

We have a massive over-supply (in terms of pumping and storing crude) at the moment... hyped up by American shale oil, which is problematic in terms of environmental damage and shelf life. And a declining oil output trajectory. This is deflecting the focus from sustainable sources. The powers that be who allow this trend to continue have a case to answer. Assuming they work in a democratic country.

It was a classic case of opening all the taps at once, rather than one at a time, resulting in a short spurt as opposed to a decade of steady supply.

The decline when it comes will catch many unawares. Don't worry about those responsible, they've already cashed in and put it all in the bank or mattress/gold.

Capt'n Midnight

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32229203

There could be up to 100 billion barrels of oil onshore beneath the South of England, says exploration firm UK Oil & Gas Investments (UKOG).
...
The North Sea has produced about 45 billion barrels in 40 years.
...
"We believe we can recover between 5% and 15% of the oil in the ground, which by 2030 could mean that we produce 10%-to-30% of the UK's oil demand from within the Weald area."

It would be great if it was viable, but it would probably need oil to be in excess of $150 (in today's money) to make it worthwhile drilling.

The biggest hurdle will be the NIMBY's and as this is such a wealthy part of the country, the protesters are more likely to be wearing suits and taking legal action against the drilling companies than chaining themselves to the rigs.

Markcheese

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It would be great if it was viable, but it would probably need oil to be in excess of $150 (in today's money) to make it worthwhile drilling.

The biggest hurdle will be the NIMBY's and as this is such a wealthy part of the country, the protesters are more likely to be wearing suits and taking legal action against the drilling companies than chaining themselves to the rigs.

I was kind of horrified at how little of the oil down there is estimated to be recoverable - 5 to 15 % - is that normal for an oil field ?
Is this where the assumption comes from that new technology will rescue us from peak oil - new techniques will allow for much greater oil returns from spent or near spent fields -

Markcheese

Markcheese wrote: »

I was kind of horrified at how little of the oil down there is estimated to be recoverable - 5 to 15 % - is that normal for an oil field ?
Is this where the assumption comes from that new technology will rescue us from peak oil - new techniques will allow for much greater oil returns from spent or near spent fields -

It really depends on the geology, tight fields usually need fracking as the oil simply won't flow out of the rocks without shattering them. To frack the whole field would require an enormous amount of drilling & fracking, simply too expensive, so they'll only do the best spots.

In a "normal" field 30% is typical before they start using enhanced methods of extraction then 70% is possible, but at a price.

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

using enhanced methods of extraction then 70% is possible, but at a price.

That's when you have to pay attention to EROEI

You have to use a sizeable amount of energy to recovery the marginal oil. And that means a huge amount of excess CO2 too. I think renewables will play an increasing role in providing that energy.

The good news is that all those petrochemicals will be down there if we ever needed them for pharmaceuticals or plastics.

omicron

Looking more and more likely that demand will peak before supply in the long term.

Renewables additions outnumber fossil fuels.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Ron Patterson calls the peak! http://peakoilbarrel.com/peak-oil-right-now/

In this life nothing is certain. Therefore I am not declaring, absolutely, that we are at peak oil, only that it is a near certainty. But I am putting my reputation on the line in making the claim that the period, September 2014 through August 2015 will be the year of Peak Oil. Below are my reasons for making this claim.
First of all, Peak Oil is not a theory. The claim that Peak Oil is a theory is more than a little absurd. Fossil hydrocarbons were created from buried alga millions of years ago and they are finite in quantity. And as long as we keep extracting them in the millions of barrels per day, it is only common sense that one day we will reach a point where their extraction starts to decline. In fact most countries where oil is extracted are already in decline. So obviously if individual countries can experience peak oil then the world as a whole can also experience peak oil.

Now EIA data is starting to show a peak (could still be false imho)

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/2015-Could-Be-The-Year-Of-Peak-Oil.html
The EIA has finally updated their International Energy Statistics with data through February 2015. All data in the charts below are Crude + Condensate and is in thousand barrels per day with the last data point February 2015.






World C+C dropped 477,000 bpd in January and another 65,000 bpd in February for a total decline of 542,000 bpd. World C+C stood at 79,160,000 barrels per day in February.

Markcheese

Ok so production dropped because the price tanked . largely, the price tanked because oil trading and oil speculating became less of a sure thing as supply equaled demand - so if demand suddenly took off in the morning would supply increase quickly to follow it - probably not - infrastructure that is already built is producing regardless of its capital cost as there's no point in turning it off ( unless it's actually costing more than sale price to extract and dispatch the oil )
I 'd always expected peak oil to be associated with high prices that kills demand - not so much with oil at a relatively reasonable 50/ 60 dollars a barrel -
I also assume that oil production could spike if the price goes consistently high for a year or 2 . Or did investors get so badly burned that all near future oil investment will be pared way back ?

Possibly one of the worst kept secrets in the oil industry as the price of oil is still falling! (as of the time of this post)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34219144
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted US oil output next year will see the steepest fall since 1992 thanks to low oil prices.

US oil production has increased to a record high in recent years as high prices made investment worthwhile.

Prices halved over the past year as demand fell in line with slower economic growth.

Meanwhile, Opec producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, have maintained high levels of production.

It was only a matter of time before the affects of reduced drilling & fracking started to show in the output figures.
Looks like the ME countries are winning the battle for market share and the US will be importing more instead of producing it themselves.
The high costs of fracking is too high to sustain the tight oil production system at these prices.

Impetus

Deleted User wrote: »

Possibly one of the worst kept secrets in the oil industry as the price of oil is still falling! (as of the time of this post)


It was only a matter of time before the affects of reduced drilling & fracking started to show in the output figures.
Looks like the ME countries are winning the battle for market share and the US will be importing more instead of producing it themselves.
The high costs of fracking is too high to sustain the tight oil production system at these prices.

gs.com came out today with yet another USD 20 per bbl forecast. Saudi Arabia has had to issue 25 billion in bonds on the market. Cash is running tight. Iraq has big potential, but is taking its time to increase output. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world - the country is out of control at the moment with a murder every 21 minutes. Renewables are producing an increasing amount of energy - and PV panel prices and falling and energy conversion efficiencies are increasing rapidly. The electric transport industry - cars, trains, trams and buses are taking an increasing share of the people/merchandise mobility market in non-dozy countries.

Oil will become obsolete as an energy source, and will slowly become less needed as a raw material in chemicals etc - as pressure increases to come up with replacement technologies.

Gas is increasingly replacing oil as an interim source.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves

Waestrel

Deleted User wrote: »

Possibly one of the worst kept secrets in the oil industry as the price of oil is still falling! (as of the time of this post)


It was only a matter of time before the affects of reduced drilling & fracking started to show in the output figures.
Looks like the ME countries are winning the battle for market share and the US will be importing more instead of producing it themselves.
The high costs of fracking is too high to sustain the tight oil production system at these prices.

How much oil does Saudi have? Have they peaked? If they have, surely they want to get as much $ as possible per barrell to prop up their huge welfare state? THis race to the bottom surely has not done them long term good.

Impetus

Waestrel wrote: »

How much oil does Saudi have? Have they peaked? If they have, surely they want to get as much $ as possible per barrell to prop up their huge welfare state? THis race to the bottom surely has not done them long term good.

They (SA) claim to have 268,350 MMbbl. To run a state a la Saudi, one has two variables - price per bbl and number of bbls exported. The fact that they had to resort to a bond issue makes me suspect that the reserves may be over-stated. If the reserves were unlimited, SA would just squirt as much oil as it requires cash into the market to cover running costs of the state. This to me is the opposite to the 1973 position when oil shot up from USD 3 to USD 12 per bbl (159 l), thanks of OPEC.

Capt'n Midnight

Impetus wrote: »

Gas is increasingly replacing oil as an interim source.[/URL]

http://www.eni.com/en_IT/media/press-releases/2015/08/Eni_discovers_supergiant_gas_field_in_Egyptian_offshore_the_largest_ever_found_in_Mediterranean_Sea.shtml

According to the well and seismic information available, the discovery could hold a potential of 30 trillion cubic feet of lean gas in place (5.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in place) covering an area of about 100 square kilometres. Zohr is the largest gas discovery ever made in Egypt and in the Mediterranean Sea and could become one of the world’s largest natural-gas finds. This exploration success will give a major contribution in satisfying Egypt’s natural gas demand for decades.

Also Saudi is starting to diversify but the plans to generate 41GW of solar have been pushed back again. Saudi is now using more energy than the UK.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d08be460-3a06-11e5-bbd1-b37bc06f590c.html#axzz3lWvGmDlH[

Nice little chart to underline the affects that the financial crisis affecting the oil companies is having on the US production of tight (expensive) oil.

Oldblood

I am new to the idea of Peak Oil as I have always ignored the idea that recent low costs can lead to problems, but after reading a blog called "Our Finite World" by Actuary Gail Tverberg, especially her recent post called "Deflationary Collapse Ahead?", I have been wondering about how Ireland would cope in a situation where the oil supply was to peak due to the fact that oil has become too expensive to extract. I am aware that we have an advantage in terms of having a low population and a large amount of arable land, so I am confident that maybe Ireland could transition to a different type of society based on agriculture, similar to Cuba perhaps, but I also worry that violence will consume Ireland and it will descend into absolute chaos like the Middle East

Someone's calling "the peak", personally I think that they're calling it too quickly as we really need to see a period of high prices coupled with declining production for a couple of years first.
http://www.artberman.com/the-crude-oil-export-ban-what-me-worry-about-peak-oil/

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

Someone's calling "the peak", personally I think that they're calling it too quickly as we really need to see a period of high prices coupled with declining production for a couple of years first.

You are adding two commodities. Conventional oil is blue and that's one resource.

The un-conentional oil is in red and production depends on price.

And again it's not peak oil, it's peak cheap oil. Anyways unless we figure out what to do with carbon dioxide we can't keep burning fossil fuels. Exposing bed rock or dumping it into the oceans may be the safest option , but it isn't cheap or quick.