Peak Oil at 2014?

323

Deleted User wrote: »

http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/03/08/goldman-says-saudi-arabia-is-misleading-the-world-about-oil-production/?mod=google_news_blog

Oh Dear! It looks like someone's finally calling Saudi's bluff, when the world sees this particular naked emporer, things will get really interesting!

This has been around for some years but no one really wanted to believe it, much to frighting.

A very intresting read is Mat Simmons, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy

www.twilightinthedesert.com

323

323 wrote: »

This has been around for some years but no one really wanted to believe it, much to frighting.

A very intresting read is Mat Simmons, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy

www.twilightinthedesert.com

True! Too many refusing to listen but unfortunately too many calling it short as well, thus making "Peak oil" into a bit of a tinfoilhat issue in the eyes of many. The migrations to (inferior) alternative fuels has masked the problem sufficiently enough to make many complacent.

Alligator fat could be used to make biodiesel

(PhysOrg.com) -- In addition to being a novelty food, alligators could also provide a feedstock for biodiesel. Every year, the alligator meat industry disposes of about 15 million pounds of alligator fat in landfills. Now scientists have found that oil can be extracted from the fat and used to make a high-quality biodiesel.
http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-08-gator-tank-alligator-fat-source.html

Fill 'er up and make it snappy!
If we need to give this type of fuel serious consideration then we're really screwed!

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

Fill 'er up and make it snappy!
If we need to give this type of fuel serious consideration then we're really screwed!

we waste about 1/3rd of all food produced

look up the old turkey guts and lye (caustic soda) pressure cooker process, it failed because the feed stuff cost too much because someone found another way to make more money out of waste (in theory the process could be used on almost any type of organic matter, including tyres and PCB's )

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization

Gumbi

brendansmith wrote: »

This is quite worrying, a good documentary on this is 'A crude awakening'.

I still think that an alternative fuel will be invented before we get in trouble though. What o ye think on this subject?

It is very good, yes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDgiYXWSjaE

Did John Bolton just admit all these wars are for oil?

" The critical oil and natural gas producing region that we fought so many wars to try and protect
our economy from the adverse impact of losing that supply or having it available at very high prices
"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xl-q9PXukCo

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3417345.htm

MARK COLVIN: Is peak oil already here?

A paper published in the scientific journal Nature says the world may well have already run out of readily available and cheap oil reserves.

Although more might be found, world production is already unable to react to spikes in demand.

And this scarcity could drive a transformation in western economies more rapidly than any worries over global warming.

Matt Peacock reports.

MATT PEACOCK: David King, an environmental economist who was British Prime Minister Tony Blair's chief scientific advisor, and the University of Washington oceanographer James Murray both say there is far less oil readily available for use than is commonly believed.

While it's still argued whether so-called "peak oil" has already been reached, today's scarcity of oil has profound economic implications.

High oil prices in a recession (sort of) is another clear indicator.

Another updated lecture on Peak oil including charts from the latest reports.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CSMLyu4gf4

New updated peak oil video.

A 34 minute animated documentary about resource depletion and the impossibility of infinite growth on a finite planet.
Here is an excellent new animated short that ties resource depletion, environmental destruction and the end of growth into a single tidy package. For those of you already versed in this subject matter, this might still be good review; for those of you who don't, PLEASE DON'T PANIC! And when introducing this to people, please remind them that they will need a couple of years to come to terms with this, and should try to not panic in the meantime.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOMWzjrRiBg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-29/global-fuel-demand-outside-iran-outstrips-supply-u-s-says-1-.html

Excluding Iran from the global oil market would increase the shortfall between worldwide supply and demand sixfold, based on February production and consumption estimates, the U.S. Energy Department said.

Global fuel use averaged 3 million barrels a day more than output when Iran is excluded from the calculations and 500,000 more when Iran is included, the department’s Energy Information Administration said in a report yesterday.

We're using it up quicker than we're getting it out of the ground!

http://www.news-press.com/article/20120826/BUSINESS/308260019/Energy-expert-says-world-s-oil-production-has-peaked?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|Home|s
Every year in August there is a weeklong event, the Oil & Gas Conference. It’s in Denver and draws an international audience. By most accounts EnerCom is the best on the schedule.This year 121 companies were scheduled to make presentations. If I were allowed to hear only one presentation, and attend one breakout session, I’d choose Core Labs — hands down.
“The maximum yearly oil production of the planet is taking place now!” That came from the CEO of a Netherlands-based company that has 70 offices in 50 countries worldwide. Their business is analyzing drilling results for all major companies and hundreds of smaller firms in the global energy-finding industry.
The company, Core Labs (NYSE: CLB $121), has a unique view of the big picture that few, if any, others could envision. As a byproduct of their normal business activities, CLB accumulates data about the current status of all major oil and gas basins on the planet. Annual revenues are $1 billion.
While an exploration company is drilling, CLB evaluates the rock samples and evaluates the potential of finding oil and gas below. After an oil or gas field is producing, CLB helps the well operators to extract the maximum amount of hydrocarbons from the reservoir. Information that extensive about all the major energy basins in 50 countries is a unique collection of data.
Never very bashful in the breakout session, CEO Dave Demshur readily offered his thoughts about the big energy picture. When queried about predictions of increased oil availability he took the under in most cases. Basically he looks for flat, or lower, future oil generation from Mexico, Iraq, Iran, North Sea, Russia, and the shocker — Saudi Arabia.
Demshur is a “peak oil” proponent, meaning that at some point the oil production of the planet will maximize, flatten, and then diminish. For the first time I can recall, he said we have reached the peak. His estimated planetary oil production in 2012 is an average 88 million barrels per day.
If anyone is more informed about the future supply of oil I haven’t found them. Let’s hope that his calculations are low, but if not — the 1970s may look like a picnic. By my pencil this is not a drill.

Someone calling the peak! Is he right, if so, then the fun's about to start!

Two years earlier than the OP in this thread!

We've already had a "recession" caused in part by supplies failing to keep up with the demand required to provide economic growth, how are the global economies going to adapt to flatlining oil production let alone declining supply.

Capt'n Midnight

it's a wee big more complicated

demand is down


there is a big refinery fire http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-19388178 - million barrels a day capacity

speculators are investigating buying oil and storing it in supertankers
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/25/oil-storage-idINL6E8HP7V320120625

Oil prices have fallen 30 percent from this year's peak over $128 per barrel, with nearby North Sea Brent crude oil futures on the InterContinental Exchange now about $90.
...

Brent for immediate use is trading at a discount of around $1 to August futures and oil for delivery in a year's time is around $2 dearer, in a price structure known as 'contango'.

The contango is not yet quite deep enough to pay for oil storage and other costs such as financing, but it has been widening steadily this month and storing oil at sea could soon be a viable option for oil companies and trading houses.

But the point of peak oil is the peak of cheap oil.

Sand tar, coal to liquid fuel , fracking gas to methanol mean we have lots of substitutes for petrol and diesel , it's just that they aren't cheap.

Lantus

I would suggest Michael Rupports doc, Collapse which is a good watch.

Suadi's big fields are seeing reduced production and they are pumping in a very unhealthy amount of sea water which if you anything about oil extraction is not good.

Other types of oil extraction which ruppert covers in part are expensive and inefficient and environmentally negative t varying degrees.

What we dont get as a society is that amost everything we own and use is used or made from or transported using oil. All plastics are oil, cars need thousands of gallons of oil to build for the plastics and resins and tyres. Its not just the stuff you stick in it to make it go.

As some have said all of our food production is oil based. From start to finish. If you take the oil production curve and population curve you wil notice how similar they are. The 8 billion on the planet today are here becasue of cheap easily accesible oil. If we have passed that peak point then the squeeze on our planet is going to go far beyond the price at the pump. The existence of millions if not billions of people are at risk.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

it's a wee big more complicated

demand is down


there is a big refinery fire http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-19388178 - million barrels a day capacity

speculators are investigating buying oil and storing it in supertankers
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/25/oil-storage-idINL6E8HP7V320120625



But the point of peak oil is the peak of cheap oil.

Sand tar, coal to liquid fuel , fracking gas to methanol mean we have lots of substitutes for petrol and diesel , it's just that they aren't cheap.

Yes it is a complex problem, demand is declining in most western countries due to "demand destruction" which is when discretionary uses of oil based fuels is curtailed due to high prices, but at the same time in other parts of the world demand is still increasing due to the high value that people there put on the usefulness of oil.

Replacing that donkey and cart with a tuk-tuk or the like, is still seen as a great leap forward for people in the third world, a trend that is still ongoing.

Brent is now back up to about $115 a barrel, could jump in the next few days if the hurricane in the gulf of Mexico turns into a biggie.

The US is planning to drawdown the strategic fuel reserves as well, could be an election stunt, but something that should indicate that all is not well on the supply side of the equation.

As it is, I suspect that we're about six years past "peak cheap oil" already.

IMF study: Peak oil could do serious damage to the global economy

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/27/imf-study-peak-oil-could-do-serious-damage-to-the-global-economy/

The world isn’t going to run out of oil anytime soon. But there’s still concern among various geologists and analysts that our oil supply won’t grow as quickly or as easily as it used to. We’ll have to resort to harder-to-drill oil to satisfy our crude habits. More expensive oil. That would push prices up. And high oil prices could act as a drag on growth.

A link to the original article http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12256.pdf

V.
Conclusion
The scenarios developed in this paper highlight that the extent to which persistent oil
scarcity could constrain global economic growth and current account imbalances depends
critically on a small number of key factors. If, as in our baseline, the trend growth rate of
oil output declined only modestly, and if the economy was adequately represented by a
standard production function in capital, labor and oil, world output would eventually
suffer, but the effect might not be dramatic. If the substitutability between oil and other
factors of production was increasing in the oil price, the effect would be even smaller. But
if the reductions in oil output were more in line with the more pessimistic studies in the
scientific literature, the effects could be extremely large. The same could be true if, as
claimed by several authors in the scientific literature, standard production functions miss
important aspects of the economic role of oil under conditions of scarcity. We discussed
three possibilities. First, if the economy attempted to substitute away from oil, it might
encounter a lower limit of oil use dictated by entropy. Second, the contribution of oil to
output could be much larger than its cost share, because oil is an essential precondition
for the continued viability of many modern technologies. Third, the income elasticity of
oil demand could be equal to one third as in some empirical studies, rather than one as in
our model. And if two or more of these aggravating factors were to occur in combination,
the effects could range from dramatic to downright implausible.

That must be the nearest the IMF have come to contemplating the outside possibility of a "Mad Max" situation.

Conclusion
The figure below shows the supply scenario for all fossil and nuclear fuels. Fuel supply for all fuels is measured in energy units (1Mtoe = 1 million tons of oil equivalent).

According to our study, coal and gas production will reach their respective production peaks around 2020. The combined peak of all fossil fuels will occur a few years earlier than the peaking of coal and gas and will almost coincide with the beginning decline of oil production.

Therefore, the decline of oil production – which is expected to start soon – will lead to a rising energy gap which will become too large to be filled by natural gas and/or coal. Substituting oil by other fossil fuels will also not be possible in case gas and coal production would continue to grow at the present rate. Moreover, a further rise of gas and coal production soon will deplete these resources in a way similar to oil.

The energy contribution of nuclear fuels is too low in order to have any significant influence at global level, though this might be different for some countries. Moreover, like with fossil fuels, easy and cheap to develop mines are also being depleted in uranium production and production effort and cost will continuously increase as a consequence.

Total world fossil fuel supply is close to peak, driven by the peak of oil production. Declining oil production in the coming years will create a rising gap which other fossil fuels will be unable to compensate for.

http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG-update2013_long_18_03_2013.pdf

It looks like the business community is finally realising that the growth in the supply of energy isn't infinite and can not be grown just by throwing more and more money at it!

When "the man in the street" realised this, is another matter altogether, especially with all the recent "News" about the new oil supplies from the US. Most of these new supplies being of tight oil obtained by fracing, most of these wells have a very rapid depletion rate and will produce about 80% of their oil in the first year of production followed by a rapid decline that tails out for several rears.

Macha

Please add some comment, not just a link/extract.

Macha

Macha wrote: »

Please add some comment, not just a link/extract.

Done

recedite

Deleted User wrote: »

http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG-update2013_long_18_03_2013.pdf

A lot of info in that document, but lets take the basic question of "peak oil production."
On Page 7 they say;

Empirical data shows that world oil production has not increased anymore but has entered a plateau since about 2005. The production of conventional oil is already in slight decline since about 2008

But their graphs do not support that conclusion. The graph on P.10 shows maximum world oil production occurring in 2012 (or "currently" depending on the year these sort of studies are made.) Then they always predict a decline, starting "next year".

Another graph (fig 25) on P. 48 is the same; actual recorded production still rising. Predicted decline to start any time soon.

One of the problems with "peak oil" is its actual definition can mean different things to different people,
Doomers believe it means that oil is about to run out and the world is about to enter a "Mad Max" phase.
Many believe it's the point that global oil production reaches a high point that cannot be repeated followed by a long slow decline (150 years or so) or a faster decline (less than 50 years) if believe that the oil industry is going flat out getting it out of the ground.

Others believe it's the point where price rationing comes into force and "demand destruction" limits the consumption of oil to only those who "need it" (no more Sunday drives there and back to see how far it is!)

Others believe that it will be the incentive to develop an alternative to oil that will provide all the energy that oil provides in a clean and sustainable way.

The main reason that the oil supply limitations are a problem can be clearly be seen in the economic "crisis" we're having right now, the economy is hard wired for growth and growth needs an ever increasing supply of people, energy & materials. With the limit in the increase in the supply of oil, the growth is constrained and the financial system is being strangled!

Improved efficiencies have delayed the issue for several years now, so has the substitution of coal in many other countries (Chinese growth is coal driven) & Western economies have been shrinking due to the high cost of fuel, after building up an entire social structure based on cheap & plentiful oil.

recedite

I think "Peak Oil" refers to peak world oil production, which apparently is still rising. The problem for western economies is that an ever increasing share of that oil is going to emerging economies elsewhere.
IMO this is strangling the western economies, but it could also be argued by others the other way round; ie that reduced demand in time of recession is the reason for less oil consumption in the west.
But purely from our selfish point of view, we are already past peak oil in the west, even though global oil production may continue to rise for a bit longer. We can afford to buy less of the stuff with every passing year.

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

One of the problems with "peak oil" is its actual definition can mean different things to different people,

Peak Cheap Oil is much clearer.

And at the end of the day that's what matters. It's what affects the economy. It's what you set your thermostat to , it's how much you use the car, foreign holidays.


The maximum price of fossil fuel is the price it would take to make synthetic fuel using renewables. Solar panels in the desert sort of thing. So there isn't a shortage of fuel, it's just too expensive (for now ?)




All the low hanging fruit has been picked. But new technology will improve yields - Japanese are well on the way to harvest ocean floor methane hydrates.

But that report shows a trend where productivity is going down. And the energy it takes to recover fuel is increasing. Yes it's diminishing returns but it's slow. It wouldn't surprise me if renewables are used to extract fossil fuel or uranium. It's a way of storing renewable energy sort of.


The scary bit is how much energy is used between the well and the petrol station. One of the main uses of fuel world wide is to harvest , process and transport fossil fuels.

Very rough figures - does anyone have better ones ?
http://netenergy.theoildrum.com/node/6356

10% loss to run a refinery
10% loss in extraction (oil sands / fracking may be much higher)
3% transport

so 23% of the energy is lost before it gets to the consumer.
also in a refinery 17% of the product is stuff that isn't fuel

so only 60% of the original oil gets to the consumer as fuel

Squeaky the Squirrel

Dr Silly Bollox MD

What If We Never Run Out of Oil?

belcampprisoner

they are getting nothing but oil in America theres an oil glut they are talking about 20 years of oil

Macha

belcampprisoner wrote: »

they are getting nothing but oil in America theres an oil glut they are talking about 20 years of oil

Markets at work: oil price goes up, more oil fields become economically viable to explore and exploit. More oil found.

Macha

Macha wrote: »

Markets at work: oil price goes up, more oil fields become economically viable to explore and exploit. More oil found.

Exactly! The "cheap & easy" stuff is in decline now and being replaced with oil that is more expensive to extract.

There was a time when you only had to drill a few hundred feet down and the oil came out to you (in a gusher) then you had to pump it out, followed by forcing it out by pumping in water or something else in to displace it. When they ran out of easy locations to drill they had to go to places like Alaska & the North sea those sites are also in decline.

Now the only growth areas are fracing, extra heavy & oil sands all of which require huge amounts of energy & effort to extract.

In an economy built on cheap & plentiful fuel, this more expensive stuff is (has) caused an "end to growth" scenario that is proving almost impossible to circumvent.

Capt'n Midnight

Macha wrote: »

Markets at work: oil price goes up, more oil fields become economically viable to explore and exploit. More oil found.

It's also a case that only 1/3 of the oil in a well is easily extractable.

The other 2/3rd's is still down there and new techniques can recover another portion of it. But it isn't cheap.

Again a reminder peak oil is about peak cheap oil. Depending on who you believe making fuel using renewable energy is four times the cost of extracting it from the ground. And the cost of extracting it from the ground is only cheap because you have massive amounts of fuel there to waste. As much as 1/3rd of the amount that comes out of the refinery is what is used up in the field.


Statoil have found more oil - sounds good until you realise it's just 20 days production for that company.
http://www.statoil.com/en/NewsAndMedia/News/2013/Pages/19Apr_Gullfaks.aspx

Preliminary calculations based on interpretation, modelling, formation testing and sampling in the relevant interval indicate that the discovery contains in the range of 40-150 million recoverable barrels of oil equivalents. However, this resource estimate involves a high degree of uncertainty.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-02/statoil-profit-slides-more-than-estimated-as-production-declines.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-09/wti-crude-increases-a-second-day-as-stockpiles-decline-in-u-s-.html

West Texas Intermediate jumped to its highest level in 14 months amid declining crude stockpiles in the U.S., narrowing its discount against Brent to less than $3 a barrel for the first time since 2010.

Futures climbed above $105 a barrel for the first time since May 3, 2012. Crude inventories fell by 9 million barrels last week, said a person with knowledge of data from the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute. A government report later today may show that supplies dropped by 3.2 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. OPEC forecast lower demand for its crude in 2014.

“That was the second straight week of huge draws in U.S. crude inventories,” said Amrita Sen, an analyst at Energy Aspects in London. “Continued large inventory draws in the U.S. are fueling further optimism about the U.S. economy and reflect that production there is starting to flat-line.”

Looks like there will soon be another peak in oil production in the US followed by a decline and the possibility of another repeat of the oil price roller-coaster of 2008.

Capt'n Midnight

some other reasons why the price of oil is high , besides cost of production and middlemen

http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/lower-bound-of-oil-prices.php

Macha

[mod]Can we keep this thread about peak oil? OP, if you want this as a separate thread on nuclear, PM me.[/mod]

Edit: post moved and new thread started.