Peak Oil at 2014?

maninasia

There are not many on here arguing that oil is getting harder to find and demand is increasing. What I do have an issue with is people ignoring there are also OTHER major factors, such as the USD and quantitative easing, speculation and governments internal decisions on how much to subsidise the cost of oil to their population (unlike many Western govts, many Asian governments subsidise oil costs through national oil companies...).

To give an example look at the situation for food prices in 2008. Wheat production was at world record levels in 2008, yet the price spiked 3 times. Speculators and vested interests are heavily involved in these markets.

One of the problems here is the scope of the forum doesn't really allow for the discussion of the economics of peak oil, I am more than aware of the devaluation of the Dollar and it's affects on the relative price of oil.

The key fact is, it will need more hours of work to fill the tank.

ei.sdraob

Deleted User wrote: »

The key fact is, it will need more hours of work to fill the tank.

Yes go thank the government and their taxes , the price of oil is only small component of what we pay, do a bit of travelling and you quickly realise how much we are getting shafted by

Capt'n Midnight

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Yes go thank the government and their taxes , the price of oil is only small component of what we pay, do a bit of travelling and you quickly realise how much we are getting shafted by

Yes the government do add tax to everything

But that doesn't explain most of the price differences between here and the UK.

I have already told you that they haven't increased the excise on beer since 1994, and by that I mean the cent per litre, so in real terms it's dropped a lot. And yet the publicans still blame the tax, even though the price of a pint in a Dublin pub could cost TWICE the price of a pint at 2am in a nightclub in Donegal. And if the Donegal guys are making a profit ...


The transport industry here has major problems , something like a third of trucks stopped in the UK for being overweight etc. are Irish reg. Bridge strikes here are up 10 fold from before the boom.

In theory it's an equal playing field since all the companies have to pay the same amount for fuel, unless they are using more efficient trucks. Also the cost of fuel is cheaper here so if exporting to the UK then there may even be an advantage.

I don't feel we can subsidise a race to the bottom in the transport industry because I just don't feel that the consumer will see any benefit since the retailers will soak up the savings, just like they did with the VAT decease, drops in prices of milk and veg and imported food, and just about everything till there was some competition from the German discounters. Tesco are doing well here, even though they charge more than on the other part of the island, so it's not as if they need reduced transport costs to stay competitive.

There was a time when it was cheaper to truck stuff from Dublin to Waterford and export it there than pay the Dublin port fees. So fuel costs were incidental in that case. (not sure of the status now )


During the Berlin Airlift they found it was better to transport flour and fuel than bread. (bread is heavier because it has water in it)

We live in a world where replicators are still fictional , but CNC, makerbots and 3D printers do exist and in the same way that email has replaced physical letter delivery a certain amount of physical transport will be replaced by making things locally.

We can reduce a lot of the need for oil by insulation of homes ( the lost opportunity during the boom to build better houses :rolleyes: )

PhiliousPhogg

If the cost of oil goes up, the cost of alternative fuels in relative terms reduces & people are more inclined to switch fuel sources. That would be the positive side of carbon tax (although the current govt tax on fuel is more of an exchequer fundraiser than a carbon tax).

Would I be right in thinking it will take decades to switch the mechanics of our economies over to alternative fuels? And that's if it can even be done. I doubt it can. Wind turbines and solar panels are expensive to manufacture and install, & the world isn't to cash rich at the moment. Coal is no replacement for oil. Coal won't help plastic & petrochemicals industries, Ryanair won't have workers shovelling coal into a furnace at the back of a plane. And if there are opportunities to switch from oil to coal when oil supplies run low, the current coal reserves of say X years will run out many times faster.

The way cheap goods are shipped around the world is very energy inefficient (Plastic toys etc shipped from China, beef from Brazil). And our economies are reliant on having it that way - the hauliers for example.

As long as fossil fuels are more cost efficient than the alternatives, they will be happily used up to the point where it becomes too expensive. The problem is that when this point comes it'll be all too late to make the change.

...certain amount of physical transport will be replaced by making things locally.

The sooner the better Capt'n, but there's got to be an economic system to make it worthwhile. As it stands people will happily continue to buy goods manufactured in the far east.

My concern is that once oil prices stretch the budgets of consumers, it will be the more vulnerable in society, the elderly etc who won't be able to heat their homes, while the prosperous continue to jet off on holidays & weekends away 3-4 times a year.

maninasia

Coal will come back in for heating or at least for electrical power supply unless ruled out by green forces. Natural gas in the form of LPG is also very plentiful and cheaper than oil. With the interconnector in Ireland we will get our double standards electricity from nuclear and other sources without people having to 'accept' nuclear power generation on our own island (even it is just across the Irish sea).
It's my belief oil will be phased out as a fuel for cars and electrical generation quite soon as the economics work against it and other energy sources are cheaper for electrical power generation. Oil will continue to be used by airplanes and ships for the foreseeable future.

Capt'n Midnight

maninasia wrote: »

Natural gas in the form of LPG is also very plentiful and cheaper than oil.

you mean LNG a completely different beast to LPG when it comes to transport and storage

people can store LPG in a gas cylinder indefinitely at room temperature

LNG means you continually have to let some of the gas boil off to keep the temperature below -161C or bad things happen

Oil will continue to be used by airplanes and ships for the foreseeable future.

ships use heavy fuel oil , which isn't much use for anything else since it's practically solid

pulverised coal dust could easily be used as a fuel for those ships using steam turbines instead of diesel engines.

Hasschu

In bad old days as coal was phased out on ships it was replaced by Bunker C which was close to being a treacly tarry diesel. These days the fuel in common use is a light diesel. The power plants are extremely efficient with a slow rotation being common. Heat is also extracted from the engine coolant and the exhaust. A number of countries such as the US, Russia, Canada, China have developed nuclear power plants that can be used to propel ships, generate electricity and in general make the ship self sufficient from an energy perspective.

I see nuclear power being widely employed on large ships as oil increases in price. The demise of Globalisation which many forecast will result from oil shortages will not happen. What will happen is it will be cheaper to ship from Shanghai to Cork by sea than from Berlin to Cork by land and sea. Up until the 17th century my predecessors on the County Kerry coast were trading with Portugal and Spain as it was cheaper and safer to trade with them than with Dublin. Then that murderous bitch Elizabeth Queen of the Sassenachs demolished our Castle and had the head of the head of the clan displayed outside Windsor Castle on a pike. We also had a side business which was imposing a levy of 8% on goods shipping in and out of the Shannon.

recedite

Hasschu wrote: »

We also had a side business which was imposing a levy of 8% on goods shipping in and out of the Shannon.

And don't forget the "wrecking" business; waving a lantern near a reef during a storm - always good for assorted goodies.
Good point about the low costs of nuclear powered shipping.

Capt'n Midnight

There are a lot of ports where nuclear ships can't go, they are even less popular than power stations. The economics of power stations are full of fudged figures, so it's natural to assume the same for ships.

it means having an expensive crew full of Homer Simpsons , the trend on ships is to reduce the crew and hire them from the cheapest countries where possible , we've had foreign ships crews go on strike over pay here


If you look at the history of nuclear civilian ships it's basically Russian Ice Breakers and the SS Savanagh. And I don't think the Russians put fuel economy as high on the list as power and endurance.


If nuclear power was economic then the shipping companies would have used it long ago.

Hasschu

I agree with you that nuclear power is unpopular and prohibited in many of the richer countries. When trains were introduced they were banned in many places because they were infernal machines, steam and smoke belching, noisy and smelly. Worst of all they scared the horses. Similar arguments were put forth with the introduction of the automobile on public roads. We all know how that evolved.
The price of oil will increase the only argument is how fast. At some point nuclear will be cost effective and at that point it will be put into widespread use. First on the 100,000+ ton behemoths spreading to the smaller ships as the price of oil increases.

You might find it interesting that the price of petrol in the US Euro 0.70 per litre which is up 15% year over year. In Canada it is Euro 0.90 also up 15%, in Europe you know what you are paying and how much it has increased. The biggest selling vehicle in the US is still a pick up truck weighing over 2,000 Kg.. In the past year 4 cylinder engined sedans took 40% of the sedan market which is up enormously over the past few years. There is no doubt but that the market is adapting.

maninasia

I don't think nuclear power will be applied widely on ships for the short to medium term. WAY too many issues including environmental protests, safety, insurance, terrorism etc. Let's get real folks.
There are such things are thorium power plants which could be used and these may come into use in the long-term.

This is a side issue. Most electrical power will start coming from coal, gas, nuclear, oil and then renewables. Renewables have a massive weakness in they cannot supply a reliable baseline of power plus they are still a bit too expensive.


Electrical power will power most things going forward, train lines will all be electrified too, with diesel still being used for some large vehicles due to it's convenience and economics. Hybrid ship engines are under development , many run their systems off electricity at port now. Large parts of the developing world will continue to use diesel too until electrical infrastructure improves or they can recharge their own batteries in rural communities (which may get easier with solar/wind installations) and until batteries become cheaper (people will nick the batteries).

I don't see any part for H2 once electrical systems become integrated and batteries improve further, H2 is just highly purified gas and is a pain to transport and produce using too much energy too.

Josh_Calvert

Not sure if anyone noticed but Peak Oil happened about 3 years ago...people seem to be a little like it's going to happen soon or this economic effect will cause such and such...it is all happening now.Pension plans are irrelevant for anyone under 50...property prices are stagnant and will never boom again,economic contraction is already happening...not sure how people think a surfeit of man hours will waylay the rising cost and intractability of a wealth generating economy form now on...we already live in an economy where no-one really needs to work anyway...as in mass labour forces are no longer required.

Pretty sure alternative energy sources will never come to pass in any significant way...bearing in mind they'd all need to be produced out of the oil economy in the first place...which necessitates at least as much oil as was used in building what we now need to sustain by different means....and yes that's a minus equation :-p

What we're living in now in just a diffusing chaotic mid term collapse into dark ages living with society one or two meals away from total collapse.No more porn, no more feminism, no more anomism, no more service industry, no more politics, only harsh survival,dimmed hope, and gradual collapse into an ape-like species.

Might sound like sci-fi to you but most sci-fi is pre-emptory If you've ever wondered why things have gotten so bad and why society has been allowed to denigrate so far, it's because there's nothing to come, nothing to save and nothing we have the resources to evolve toward.

How do you socially engineer this gradual collapse so capitalism is still served? You make an economy out of people debasing themselves.How do you perpetuate these memes of self dehumanisation? Mass media, Internet porn, collapse of music, render unworkable the intellectual property or content creation economy.....in effect let everything become permittable and let the system waste its own resources and hopefully no-one will see the end coming in the midst of all the hedonism.

Linking together peak oil and social collapse there...I'm sure you'll find a lot to disagree with but it's my 2c about where we are now.

For us in Europe solar power is viable...but the car culture and globalisation won't work without oil....and I'm not sure trans-border cooperation between countries will ever happen such that electricty can be beamed or piped or wired from say spain to finland or ireland etc...

maninasia

The end is nigh....

But seriously society is not so bad, most of the world is doing really well, better than ever in fact. Don't get stuck in a bubble in Ireland but even Ireland is far better off than decades ago.

Below is an interesting chart that shows WTI & Brent tracking each other from 2008 until about the end of November 2010 at which point they diverge quite noticably.
Could it just be an indicator highlighting the fact that global demand is rising while US demand is falling, I've seen a report that China is temporarily replacing Australian coal with oil, could that be the cause?
Will we see the gap shrink when the Australian coal is back on line, or will this become the "new normal" as the west continues to decline and the BRIC's continue to grow.
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/daily_charts/chart_producer.php?type_symbol=futures_cb&style=line&scheme=beige&dura=1066&width=600&volbars=n&type_symbol2=futures_wi



One oil company has admitted that it's to find anymore worth getting!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576146362117313094.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLETopStories

HOUSTON—Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's largest publicly traded oil company, is struggling to find oil.

Instead, it is stocking up on natural gas, mostly through its acquisition of XTO Energy Inc. last year, according to an annual financial report by Exxon on Tuesday. This shift toward gas is troubling some investors, since gas sells for less than the equivalent amount of oil and companies are finding a lot of gas, putting downward pressure on prices.

Peak oil for investors. (filmed just before the ME crisis)

Part one: Peak oil explaind - targetted at investors and like minded people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgTTWZdvkNc

Part two: effects of peak oil from an investors point of view and highlighting the dangers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRMp7BcJeo8

The fact that videos like this are appearing do show that the idea that infinite economic growth is being challanged and acceptance that the economy runs on oil!

So therefore will slow down without an ever increasing supply.

http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/03/08/goldman-says-saudi-arabia-is-misleading-the-world-about-oil-production/?mod=google_news_blog

Goldman Says Saudi Arabia Is Misleading the World About Oil Production
Goldman Sachs has accused Saudi Arabia, the world’s most important oil supplier, of misleading the world about its oil production since late last year.
If true, this allegation would mean that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has far less spare production capacity to make up for the disruption of Libyan supplies than it claims, leaving oil markets in a much more perilous situation than anybody realizes.
After the outbreak of serious civil violence in Libya late last month shut down around at least half the country’s 1.5 million barrels a day of oil exports, Saudi Arabia stepped in to fill the gap. It promised to pump an extra 700,000 barrels of oil a day, taking its oil production to 9 million barrels a day, to ensure that nobody ran out.

Oh Dear! It looks like someone's finally calling Saudi's bluff, when the world sees this particular naked emporer, things will get really interesting!

Another article pointing to the fact that we may already be past peak!

Monday, March 28, 2011
Peak Oil Production May Already Be Here
From Science, March 25, 2011:
http://theblogattheendoftheworld.blogspot.com/2011/03/peak-oil-production-may-already-be-here.html
Outside of OPEC’s vast resources, oil production has leveled off, and it’s looking like it may never rise again
FIVE YEARS AGO, MANY OIL EXPERTS SAW trouble looming. In 10 years or so, they said, oil producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would likely be unable to pump oil any faster (Science, 18 November 2005, p. 1106). Non-OPEC oil production would peak, no matter the effort applied. All the high-technology exploration and drilling, all the frontier-pushing bravado of the oil industry would no longer stave off the inevitable as OPEC gains an even stronger hand among the world’s oil producers.
....
Perhaps the most sobering outcome of a non-OPEC plateau might be reminding everyone that even planet-scale resources have their limits. And that when you are consuming them at close to 1000 gallons a second, the limits can catch you unaware. The next 5 years, assuming oil prices remain on the high side, should show who the realists are. –RICHARD A. KERR

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13890072

The price of oil has fallen after the International Energy Agency said that its members will sell some of their reserves on the world market.
Brent crude fell by more than $6.50 to $107 and US sweet, light crude fell by $4.70 to to $90.70 after the agency announced the plan.
The IEA says the move is in response to the disruption in supplies caused by the Libyan conflict.
It plans to release an extra 60 million barrels of oil on to the world market.

Well they say the market is well supplied, it is now!
Less than one days supply has been released, must be approaching supply crunch. :eek:

recedite

Deleted User wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13890072

The moves follows an unexpected decision by Opec to hold oil production steady at the cartel's last meeting earlier in June.

and

They have agreed to make two million barrels of this available every day for 30 days, increasing supply on the market and so reducing the price.
The IEA says it will review the market again in 30 days time.

They must be planning to finish off Gadaffi within 30 days, seeing as the Saudis have been unable/unwilling to increase supply. Otherwise its just kicking the can down the road.

Macha

An interesting move that says a lot about attitudes to market intervention.

recedite

recedite wrote: »

They must be planning to finish off Gadaffi within 30 days, seeing as the Saudis have been unable/unwilling to increase supply. Otherwise its just kicking the can down the road.

I think it's the fact that high oil prices are killing the global economy more than Gadaffi tbh.

Politicians and business leaders will do absolutely anything to maintain "growth" as that is what is required to keep the current global economic system functioning.

They will soon discover that that can can't be kicked any further!

recedite

Right, but the prices will come down a bit once Libya returns to full production. In the meantime, using up reserves is a desperate measure which seems to have been adopted when it was found that the Saudis were unable to back up their previously stated intention to temporarily increase their production.

recedite

recedite wrote: »

Right, but the prices will come down a bit once Libya returns to full production.

I suspect that that could be years away, if ever!
As it is their internal consumption was increasing and reducing the quantities available for export.

recedite

The "turmoil" in the middle east is causing a speculative price rise over and above the actual lost production. Sorting out Libya would help to ease that.

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/06/23/release-of-oil-from-the-spr-desperately-trying-to-fix-the-economy/

Release of Oil from the SPR – Desperately Trying to Fix the Economy



The International Energy Association (IEA) announced a plan today to make 60 million barrels of oil available to the market over the next month from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), in response to the disturbance in supplies from Libya. Half of this oil is to come from the SPR of the United States; the rest is to come from SPRs of other members of OECD.
Both the amount and the timing of the release are strange. The amount of the release is equivalent to 2 million barrels a day. This is actually more than the Libyan disruption took off the market, which was about 1.4 million barrels a day. The disruption first took place in February, and oil prices have been declining since early May, so the timing is strange, as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWh85pJlB-U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OfS8IKegX4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQtzt-emRJI

House Session
2011-May-24
U.S. House
General Speeches
Rep. Roscoe Bartlett
R-Maryland, 6th District

Speech to US congress about peak oil!
In summary it is a speech basically detailling the principles of peak oil complete with charts going back to the 1960's and excerpts from energy supply reports, such as Hirsch report and future projections. Nothing new for those who are "peak oil" aware but a good background primer for those who want to know more.

Macha

Hi dolanbaker, any chance you could do a short summary/analysis of the content of the videos?

Macha

Macha wrote: »

Hi dolanbaker, any chance you could do a short summary/analysis of the content of the videos?

In summary it is a speech basically detailling the principles of peak oil complete with charts going back to the 1960's and excerpts from energy supply reports, such as Hirsch report and future projections. Nothing new for those who are "peak oil" aware but a good background primer for those who want to know more.


added to OP

http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Oil/8089409

Oil to climb on growing demand, reduced spare capacity: Goldman

London (Platts)--7Jul2011/603 am EDT/1003 GMT



Global banking and securities firm Goldman Sachs said Thursday it was expecting considerable oil price upside in the next 6-12 months as rising demand fueled by improved global economic growth cut into OPEC spare capacity.

"With world economic growth continuing to drive oil demand growth well in excess of non-OPEC production growth, the oil market continues to draw on inventories and OPEC spare capacity in order to balance," Goldman Sachs said in its Commodity Watch report.

"In our view, it is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand, keeping it in line with available supply."

As such, Goldman Sachs has now forecast a WTI crude price of $111.00/b in three months, $115.00/b in six months and $126.50/b in 12 months, this compares with $108.00/b, $114.50/b and $126.50/b forecasts from its May 24 Commodity Watch report.

It appears we are rapidly approaching the point when oil shortages could become a reality, if rationing by price (already happening) fails to restrain demand.