Ken Ring

54321

To be fair Ken Ring has had very good results since i started following his predictions earlier this year. What he said about the month of December seems to be turning out true as well just looking at the various pressure charts discussed on other threads.

boardswalker

Ok, time for a look back.

On 15 Sep last the irish independent had an article on Ken Ring which included
"However, the New Zealander isn't too optimistic for the year ahead. At this stage he predicts more of the same for next year's summer.

Looking forward he said: "The autumn will be wet apart from a dry and cool first week in November. December will be dry between the 10th and 24th, and Christmas (will be) wet but not white. Chances of snow do come around on January 20 and February 20, and in the first week of March."

full (short) article here http://www.independent.ie/farming/news-features/kiwi-weather-expert-forecasts--a-watery-end-to-dreadful-2009-1886289.html

I am sure it was just luck. If it was going to be dry on the 10th and the 11th Octo would have known and told us.

Gene Derm

boardswalker wrote: »

Ok, time for a look back.

On 15 Sep last the irish independent had an article on Ken Ring which included
"However, the New Zealander isn't too optimistic for the year ahead. At this stage he predicts more of the same for next year's summer.

Looking forward he said: "The autumn will be wet apart from a dry and cool first week in November. December will be dry between the 10th and 24th, and Christmas (will be) wet but not white. Chances of snow do come around on January 20 and February 20, and in the first week of March."

full (short) article here http://www.independent.ie/farming/news-features/kiwi-weather-expert-forecasts--a-watery-end-to-dreadful-2009-1886289.html

I am sure it was just luck. If it was going to be dry on the 10th and the 11th Octo would have known and told us.

Boardswalker
Well, I am optimistic and that part was the reporter's spin. I said sunshine would come in late May and June which would please a lot of people. I think it will be a better summer than 2009 in that sunshine will come earlier, but there will still be a fair amount of rain afterwards. and I am satisfied with my prediction of the clearing around the 10th because it was dry enough for farmers to get stock out grazing. As for Xmas Day, I can't see snow anywhere until the next day. I have Dublin for Xmas Day on 8deg max and about 5deg min. About the coldest maximum in the country may be Drumsna and Roscommon on around 7C. Xmas day is a change of moon phase. That usually brings a change in weather patterns. I dont think in terms of luck. Meteorologists use words like random, chaos, confidence percentage, laws of average and probability when it comes to forecasting, words that are found in casinos. That's why I would rather not call myself a meteorologist.

My almanac for Ireland is now available from https://www.predictweather.co.nz/#/shop/

Ken Ring

Gene Derm

Gene Derm wrote: »

Boardswalker
As for Xmas Day, I can't see snow anywhere until the next day. I have Dublin for Xmas Day on 8deg max and about 5deg min. About the coldest maximum in the country may be Drumsna and Roscommon on around 7C. Xmas day is a change of moon phase. That usually brings a change in weather patterns. My almanac for Ireland is now available from https://www.predictweather.co.nz/#/shop/

Ken Ring

Just had another look at my astrocharts. With the possibility of minimums of 1C or less, these may get light morning snow on Xmas Day: Antrim, Carlow, Cavan, Down, Kilkenny, Leitrim, Monaghan, Roscommon, Tipperary, and Wexford.
Ken Ring

Deep Easterly

Feature about Ken Ring and his "moon based forecasting" in the latest Irish Met Society Newsletter:

Abstract:

"According to New Zealand Met Service meteorologist Erick Brenstrum, Ken comes from a 100-year tradition of antipodean moon-based weather forecasting. Astrono-mer Bill Keir describes his work as "a misleading mixture of correct and garbled sci-ence, folklore, astrology [and] misrepresentations of other authors", while his writings hint of a sophisticated esoteric system based on "the ancient astrological energy grid of the constellations, and lunar and solar cycles".
However a cursory analysis of his forecasts reveals his actual technique in Ireland to date appears remarkably simple: he simply recycles daily climate data from 18 years and 10 days previous.
This 18.03 year period is ap-proximately the length of a 'Saros Cycle', which is a time period used to predict eclipses and during which the earth, moon and sun return to an identical relative alignment".



I ask, is the weather, an absolute and utterly chaotic system, really that easily predictable through the so called "Saros Cycle"? :confused:

octo

boardswalker wrote: »

Ok, time for a look back.

Grand so. Ken helpfully provided our own boards.ie forecast some time back, so perhaps we can look at that.

Btw, Back on August 29 on Radio 1 here, when repeatedly pressed for an October and November forecast, all Ken said was that it would rain "off and on, off and on". This is the same month described by Met Eireann as the wettest November on record and the wettest month ever in Valentia since records began in 1866, and the forecast is "off and on" rainfall. Or maybe they altered the climate data just to spite Ken Ring and actually it was a lovely month? But I'm sure ye of the faith will find some excuse to brush such 'inaccuracies' aside.

Moving on to the first 10 days of Ken's forecast for us here on Boards for Co Clare:

Gene Derm wrote: »

Let us take a test case, County Clare, from this coming December to the following March. I have chosen Clare because I have no historical archival data for that County so cannot look back and bring forward anything from the past. My method has been astrological, and based around plottable lunar events, and I have included them in parentheses here for readers to see and follow for themselves. The lunar key follows the report. The astro-aspects are supportive but of lesser importance so would be time-wasting here and I don't think many would be interested. In offering this I think it only fair and sporting that you as a meteorologist or for that matter any of your vast staff of colleagues also offer up ideas for this time period, so that we can compare notes. Whilst hoping you or they will, I suspect that we will not see any. Please prove me wrong.

Clare, December to March
December: Chance of rain 1-10 December (FM+N dec) but few if any subzero minimums, most rain arriving within 2 days either side of the 4th (P), and mostly overcast conditions.

Well that could mean anything couldn't it? Chance of rain? Here's the data for Shannon Airport:

date Rain Max Min S/S Gust (>=34) Wind Gmin
01/12/2009 4.3 9.7 1.3 0.1 38 14.7 -0.3
02/12/2009 0.2 10.8 5.8 1.7 9.3 2.3
03/12/2009 4.1 7.3 3.1 3.2 7.8 -0.5
04/12/2009 5.7 11.8 3.6 0.5 8.9 3.3
05/12/2009 3.6 11.8 6.3 0 12.3 1.6
06/12/2009 2 8.4 5.9 1.4 39 16.3 2.1
07/12/2009 6.2 8.1 4.4 2.2 10.6 2.7
08/12/2009 1.3 12.4 5.4 1.7 12.8 2
09/12/2009 3.9 11.1 6.4 1.6 9 1.9
10/12/2009 0.2 9.4 2.9 4.8 9.4 -0.8

Looks to me that Ken got less than 50% of the rain in that period (and he had a 50-50 chance of getting it right) - but he got his rain forecast wrong. It looks fairly sunny too for December. However his temperature forecast looks good.

If you pick and choose the parts of his forecast that are accurate then I accept that yes, he's an excellent forecaster.

Joe Public

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Feature about Ken Ring and his "moon based forecasting" in the latest Irish Met Society Newsletter:

Abstract:

"According to New Zealand Met Service meteorologist Erick Brenstrum, Ken comes from a 100-year tradition of antipodean moon-based weather forecasting. Astrono-mer Bill Keir describes his work as "a misleading mixture of correct and garbled sci-ence, folklore, astrology [and] misrepresentations of other authors", while his writings hint of a sophisticated esoteric system based on "the ancient astrological energy grid of the constellations, and lunar and solar cycles".
However a cursory analysis of his forecasts reveals his actual technique in Ireland to date appears remarkably simple: he simply recycles daily climate data from 18 years and 10 days previous.
This 18.03 year period is ap-proximately the length of a 'Saros Cycle', which is a time period used to predict eclipses and during which the earth, moon and sun return to an identical relative alignment".



I ask, is the weather, an absolute and utterly chaotic system, really that easily predictable through the so called "Saros Cycle"? :confused:

The Saros cycle is 18 years, 11 days, and 8 hours

Are there archives of the daily Ireland weather anywhere online so we can check back. I could use it for the monthly M.T. weather predictions and impress everyone or maybe not. If anyone else uses the same figures I could accuse them of copying:D

Gene Derm

Joe Public wrote: »

The Saros cycle is 18 years, 11 days, and 8 hours

Are there archives of the daily Ireland weather anywhere online so we can check back. I could use it for the monthly M.T. weather predictions and impress everyone or maybe not. If anyone else uses the same figures I could accuse them of copying:D

You can use any system and it will give approximate trends, so long as it is one of the lunar cycles. But using just one doesn't get too accurate. It's the same with the tides. 18.613 gives you one cycle, 19 years another. All the cycles fall between 18-19 years, or 71-72 years for even greater accuracy. The larger the cycle, the more accurate. 72 years has two huge distinct cycles. Weather is cyclic, you have to find the best cycle for a particular location. Sometimes, like tides, local factors alter things. The point is, cycles are the realm of astrology. Get used to it and get over it.
Funny that the meteorologists accuse me of garbled science while they are currently being accused worldwide of cooking the books to receive research funding. That's rich! Whatever they say, does anyone really believe meteorologists? Of course they are going to hound and try to expose me as being simplistic, wrong, evil etc. I threaten their jobs.
Ken Ring

Joe Public

Gene Derm wrote: »

You can use any system and it will give approximate trends, so long as it is one of the lunar cycles. But using just one doesn't get too accurate. It's the same with the tides. 18.613 gives you one cycle, 19 years another. All the cycles fall between 18-19 years, or 71-72 years for even greater accuracy. The larger the cycle, the more accurate. 72 years has two huge distinct cycles. Weather is cyclic, you have to find the best cycle for a particular location. Sometimes, like tides, local factors alter things. The point is, cycles are the realm of astrology. Get used to it and get over it.
Funny that the meteorologists accuse me of garbled science while they are currently being accused worldwide of cooking the books to receive research funding. That's rich! Whatever they say, does anyone really believe meteorologists? Of course they are going to hound and try to expose me as being simplistic, wrong, evil etc. I threaten their jobs.
Ken Ring

I hope I didn't sound like I was taking a swipe at your methods as it wasn't my intention. I'm open to all theories and can be easily swayed. If astrological cycles can be linked to weather patterns does that mean you could make a fair prediction on the weather likelyhood covering each year for a particular area for the next 10 or 20 years ahead?

boardswalker

octo wrote: »

Looks to me that Ken got less than 50% of the rain in that period (and he had a 50-50 chance of getting it right) - but he got his rain forecast wrong. It looks fairly sunny too for December. However his temperature forecast looks good.

If you pick and choose the parts of his forecast that are accurate then I accept that yes, he's an excellent forecaster.

Ok Octo, you have me convinced. I'll go with your long range forecasts. They're obviously more reliable.
Could you post a link for your work?

Gene Derm

Joe Public wrote: »

I hope I didn't sound like I was taking a swipe at your methods as it wasn't my intention. I'm open to all theories and can be easily swayed. If astrological cycles can be linked to weather patterns does that mean you could make a fair prediction on the weather likelyhood covering each year for a particular area for the next 10 or 20 years ahead?

Hi Joe Public
Absolutely no offence taken. But ask yourself, who is more likely to be right, the metservice clique who fiddle the figures to get funding, who can't get a week ahead right let alone a season (remember the "barbecue summer" predictions?), or someone using cycles who got the summer forecast so correct that farmers up and down Ireland and the media alike seem have been rather astonished? So what if I use this or that system - they try to make out there is something bad about that. Meanwhile they are showing enough interest in me to have to reprint denigrating articles written by others, just to reassure themselves that I am not to be taken seriously. It is an indication that they are rattled, uncomfortable that at last they have some opposition, someone offering a viable alternative to their up-til-now monopololistic stronghold on weather servicing. They should do a bit of ancient history study, go for a walk around NewGrange or Knowth. Or talk to any elderly Asian or Tibetan. The ancients had many lifetimes to get these cycles sorted, and they moved 50-ton stones into place to calculate angles and repeating dates. They knew what they were doing and they were no fools. All ancient structures were aligned to the Moon. Even in recent times an astrologer in a nonwestern country took most of his adult life to study his apprenticeship. He steeped himself in the cycles until he had them at his fingertips. In some countries these guys can still calculate the arrival of the monsoon to the day and hour. But we are supposed to believe that in 2009 in a western country a kid straight from school who can become a meteorologist with a 3-year university unit knows better. Well, let the latter try to come up with a 10-year longrange report. He'd struggle over a 10-hour one. Yes, I believe my method can go as far ahead as anyone wants. The astrological method of ingress charts is what would be employed for anything out of range of historical data.
cheers!
Ken Ring

Danno

octo wrote: »

I advise others to make up their own minds. I'd particularly like to hear from Danno.

Just read this now...

He predicted a chance of snow in Tipp at the end of November, this photo is from Johnstown Co. Kilkenny, 3 miles from the border with Tipp...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=63249400&postcount=157

So he got that part of his forecast right.

Joe Public

But it's looking bad for the "average-to-slightly-warmer winter"

Gene Derm

Joe Public wrote: »

But it's looking bad for the "average-to-slightly-warmer winter"

Winter's not over yet, and I think the trend is upwards from now on. Not just me either, saying that overall not a colder-than-average winter. See: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=4492
(November 28th 2009) "The Met Office forecast on Friday there was a 50 percent chance of a warmer winter than average this year for northern Europe, including Britain. The Met Office said there was only a 20 percent chance of a colder winter, while there were no clear signals for precipitation during the three months between December and February. In its first forecast for 2009/2010 winter, the office said in September temperatures and rainfall for much of northern Europe, including Britain, were likely to be near or above average".
However, because I did say that during all of 2009, so the Mets could be accused of parrotting me. But if they genuinely worked it out for themselves then in fairness I expect anyone who is critical of me to also dish out the same to the Met Office.
It will be interesting to see if we are both right or if we go down together. At least I will be in good company!
Ken Ring

Joe Public

It will be interesting to see ok but at the moment the "cold" has a good lead with 1/3 of the track completed.

Sponge Bob

Ken gave his only actual long term forecast ( November-March) to us in this post here FYI

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=63115693&postcount=103

Deep Easterly

Joe Public wrote: »

It will be interesting to see ok but at the moment the "cold" has a good lead with 1/3 of the track completed.

December finished being around 2c below normal, so really both January and February need to finish at least 1c above normal for winter to come even close to normal. Even if the current month finished colder than normal then a very warm Feb could balance out things. (or vise versa: warm Jan/cold Feb etc).

Will be interesting to see how it finishes up.

TheMilkyPirate

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Feature about Ken Ring and his "moon based forecasting" in the latest Irish Met Society Newsletter:

Abstract:

"According to New Zealand Met Service meteorologist Erick Brenstrum, Ken comes from a 100-year tradition of antipodean moon-based weather forecasting. Astrono-mer Bill Keir describes his work as "a misleading mixture of correct and garbled sci-ence, folklore, astrology [and] misrepresentations of other authors", while his writings hint of a sophisticated esoteric system based on "the ancient astrological energy grid of the constellations, and lunar and solar cycles".
However a cursory analysis of his forecasts reveals his actual technique in Ireland to date appears remarkably simple: he simply recycles daily climate data from 18 years and 10 days previous.
This 18.03 year period is ap-proximately the length of a 'Saros Cycle', which is a time period used to predict eclipses and during which the earth, moon and sun return to an identical relative alignment".



I ask, is the weather, an absolute and utterly chaotic system, really that easily predictable through the so called "Saros Cycle"? :confused:

I find this interesting 1982 was cold with snow and 18 years later 2000 was aswell, 91 we had cold and snow i think and in 2009 its 18 years later and were getting a cold winter with snow too! lol

Gene Derm

baraca wrote: »

I find this interesting 1982 was cold with snow and 18 years later 2000 was aswell, 91 we had cold and snow i think and in 2009 its 18 years later and were getting a cold winter with snow too! lol

On January 24 I have Antrim and Armagh on mimimums of about minus 4, and Feb 2 Carlow may drop to that too, which are not calculations based on any one cycle but on a combination. The combinations I alternate between are mostly between 71-72, 35-38, 18-20, 9 and 4 1/2-5 years, as I have always said is the case, this repeating regularity being because the tide in the atmosphere is married to the oceanic tidal cycles. So yes, you will find that these repeating periods will give these trends. These trend periods, and their multiples are so well documented in historical accounts that you would have to be unreasonably biased against lunar cycles to ignore them. To see what I mean you can go back to the heavy snow in January in 1838, 1855, in 1866, 1885, and count the intervening years, and even 1890 which was 5 years after 1885. For example 1890 was called the worst Christmas period in UK history. Jump forward 37 years to 25-26 December 1927 for the same conditions. The whole point I am trying to make is that the Moon and Sun are mostly responsible for sea and weather patterns, their combined cycles being around 9-11 years and multiples of them.
The surprise to me is how reluctant people are to cotton onto this, and I think it is largely religious resistance, because predictable lunar or solar cycles are anathema to the idea that God's ways are mysterious.
Ken Ring

padi89

Ken Ring was on one of the local radio stations a couple mornings ago.I had heard a few people down the garden center talk about these long range forecasts so i decided to have a listen. Towards the end of the interview he was asked what he had previously predicted for this day ... well it was all a bit embarrassing. The guy was way off the mark to say the least, even the usually gullible presenter sounded stumped, pure car crash radio.

force eleven

baraca wrote: »

I find this interesting 1982 was cold with snow and 18 years later 2000 was aswell, 91 we had cold and snow i think and in 2009 its 18 years later and were getting a cold winter with snow too! lol

People get confused with this. 1982 had a cold spell in early January which lasted for about a week only. Yes, there was a record snowstorm, and that is what makes it memorable,but overall it didn't last too long. 1991 the same, a cold spell , in February I think, with snow, lasted about a week or less if I recall correctly. December 2000 had a big snowfall around the 27th. By the 31st it was gone. So 82, 91 and 2000 were not cold winters overall.

Deep Easterly

Although December 81 was cold, it did have a few, if brief, milder interludes thrown in as well. The duration of the current snap is certainly notable.

Gene Derm

padi89 wrote: »

Ken Ring was on one of the local radio stations a couple mornings ago.I had heard a few people down the garden center talk about these long range forecasts so i decided to have a listen. Towards the end of the interview he was asked what he had previously predicted for this day ... well it was all a bit embarrassing. The guy was way off the mark to say the least, even the usually gullible presenter sounded stumped, pure car crash radio.

Yes, sure I was out by three degrees. That doesn't worry me, not nearly as much as it should worry Met Eireann that they were out for the whole of last summer. I claim about 80-85% accuracy. That means I'm possibly going to be out by about two and a half months in a year. It's the trend that I'm more interested in.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

padi89

Gene Derm wrote: »

Yes, sure I was out by three degrees. That doesn't worry me, not nearly as much as it should worry Met Eireann that they were out for the whole of last summer. I claim about 80-85% accuracy. That means I'm possibly going to be out by about two and a half months in a year. It's the trend that I'm more interested in.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

Did you not say lows of 3 or 4 degrees, when in fact we are well into sub zero temperatures for the past couple of weeks? Id love to have the recording of the interview because
your prediction just sounded daft compared to what we are really experiencing in the west.

octo

Gene Derm wrote: »

Yes, sure I was out by three degrees. That doesn't worry me, not nearly as much as it should worry Met Eireann that they were out for the whole of last summer. I claim about 80-85% accuracy. That means I'm possibly going to be out by about two and a half months in a year. It's the trend that I'm more interested in.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

Where did Met Eireann give a summer prediction? They don't do seasonal predictions. They have a consistent policy of only providing 5 day forecasts, because they know that nonlinear chaotic dynamic systems don't allow for anything more specific.

Deep Easterly

Gene Derm wrote: »

Yes, sure I was out by three degrees. That doesn't worry me, not nearly as much as it should worry Met Eireann that they were out for the whole of last summer. I claim about 80-85% accuracy. That means I'm possibly going to be out by about two and a half months in a year. It's the trend that I'm more interested in.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

How was met eireann "out" for last summer? they did not make a summer forecast as far as I am aware? Being out by 2.5 months within a year is not really good enough in my opinion. Ireland will always go through wet/settled/mild/cold spells, so if it dosen't happen one week, it will surely happen the next. Anyone on the street knows this.

boardswalker

Hi,
I am getting confused here. Are there double standards at work here.

At 20:46 you post (on a different thread) - Bold is mine

Deep Easterly wrote:

Wolfe, I am not sure why you are apologizing? Your updates on the models were showing were nothing short of top quality. This is weather, this is weather forecasting in Ireland, it is never going to be an exact science. That is what is depressing and exciting at the same time about the weather in Ireland because no one will ever no for sure what will happen, no matter how much knowledge they have under their belt. So it is not apologies we are looking for from you, but your respect.

And at 21.14 you post

Deep Easterly wrote: »

How was met eireann "out" for last summer? they did not make a summer forecast as far as I am aware? Being out by 2.5 months within a year is not really good enough in my opinion. Ireland will always go through wet/settled/mild/cold spells, so if it dosen't happen one week, it will surely happen the next. Anyone on the street knows this.

Are we applying much lower standards to ME. One guy predicts trends over a long period. The other give 1-5 day forecasts. I would imagine the long range forecast has a much harder job and should have greater tolerances. The tolerances should be reducing as the timelines reduces. I would expect us to be much more demanding on ME than on the long range guy.

It just doesn't make sense to me. Why the difference?

Deep Easterly

boardswalker wrote: »

Hi,
I am getting confused here. Are there double standards at work here.

At 20:46 you post (on a different thread) - Bold is mine


And at 21.14 you post


Are we applying much lower standards to ME. One guy predicts trends over a long period. The other give 1-5 day forecasts. I would imagine the long range forecast has a much harder job and should have greater tolerances. The tolerances should be reducing as the timelines reduces. I would expect us to be much more demanding on ME than on the long range guy.

It just doesn't make sense to me. Why the difference?

Why the difference?
I was speaking about short term weather forecasting in one, and long term forecasting in the other. Can't see where you see where there is double standards, since both of the posts quoted are acknowledging the chaotic and unpredictable nature of the Irish climate.

Try again.

As to long term forecasting being a "harder job", that is just silly. I predict August 2010 will be mild, wet and windy at times. If I am wrong, I will give myself a wide margin, say 2.5 months, so if the wet, mild and windy at times weather (very rare in Ireland) does not happen in August, then my forecast will be correct if it happens in the following October, November, or the preceding July or June.

Hmmm, could make some money out of this...

Gene Derm

octo wrote: »

Where did Met Eireann give a summer prediction? They don't do seasonal predictions. They have a consistent policy of only providing 5 day forecasts, because they know that nonlinear chaotic dynamic systems don't allow for anything more specific.

Hmm..don't they? There must be two Met Eireanns then. One that does and the one that doesn't.
July 31
“There will be no settled period,” said Met Éireann forecaster Siobhán Ryan. We’re looking at 16 to 18 degrees for the whole of August."
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0731/1224251764745.html
The whole of August? As I remember August has more than 5-days in it. Even in Ireland.

Article from:The Mirror (London, England) Article date:August 9, 2008
BAD NEWS FOLKS, OUR SUMMER REALLY IS OVER; "Met Eireann's gloomy message to country.. We can expect 25% more rain in Ireland towards end of century.(News) A SURGE of depression hit the country yesterday as Met Eireann revealed the summer was officially over.."
http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-182496900.html
So now they're commenting on a seasonal basis. Seasons last longer than 5-days too. The thing is, they say they don't go beyond 5-days so they can be unaccountable. But when it suits them they do go well over 5-days, even a century ahead!
Boardswalker - you're not the only one who is confused..
Ken Ring

M.T. Cranium

Being a student of long-range forecasting methods and a forecaster myself, I have come to the conclusion that this never-ending discussion or debate can only be settled in the long run by having some sort of independent, unbiased but objective group taking all available forecasts and comparing them with reality for a period (probably 2-3 years would be necessary) and drawing some conclusions about accuracy.

There are in fact a lot of long-range forecasts being made by many different groups, individuals, agencies, companies ... and this sort of debate always goes on around anyone who gains any sort of public notice, usually because they have made one or two pretty good forecasts to bring the paradigm shift into view.

I'm not meaning to take sides here, but a lot of this discussion cannot be easily referenced to "reality" because it quickly becomes anecdotal and there are no reliable comparisons at hand. Also it's not just a Ken Ring vs traditional meteorology paradigm any more, there are literally dozens of people producing regular long-range forecasts, many of them with some overlap in techniques, but taken as a group, covering a wide range of methods.

We need to set up a more objective verification system, like the one used in our own boards monthly forecast contest. Our 2009 winner, Danno, seems to have a knack for making accurate long-range forecasts, perhaps we should ask him what his methodology is. He was quite often within one degree of the correct monthly mean, and some of the other contestants were almost as reliable. I don't agree that long-range forecasting is still at some random stage, I've seen enough of it in the past five years to come to the conclusion that it is slowly developing and that we may be nearing a breakthrough.

It's quite possible that Ken Ring is as far along the trail to this goal as anyone who's actively working in the field. But we can never really know that if we stay stuck on anecdotal forms of validation, because these will always be used by either side in a debate to try to defeat the opponent. It's really more about incremental improvements over random forecasting in this field.