Ken Ring

octo

Gene Derm wrote: »

But there WERE significant falls in the second week of November, and on 16th.
7th in N, W and S
8th in N, W and S
9th in all except E areas
10th in the N
11th in the N, W, S and central counties
12th in all ares except SE
13th across the S
and 16th, in all areas. So I was correct. What IS your problem???
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

I must have missed all those 'significant' falls of snow - could you show us a source for those reports? They didn't even show up in the Met Eireann monthly summary. But you spotted them from New Zealand. Amazing.

Gene Derm

octo wrote: »

I must have missed all those 'significant' falls of snow - could you show us a source for those reports? They didn't even show up in the Met Eireann monthly summary. But you spotted them from New Zealand. Amazing.

Yes, maybe you have a computer malfunction. I view this site every day
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/
and download their observations. There is every day in November viewable day by day across the whole country. That the second week was very wet is very clear.
Your efforts to discredit me continue to fail.

octo

Gene Derm wrote: »

Yes, maybe you have a computer malfunction. I view this site every day
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/
and download their observations. There is every day in November viewable day by day across the whole country. That the second week was very wet is very clear.
Your efforts to discredit me continue to fail.

Sorry Ken, nobody's denying it was wet. But could you tell us where you saw these widespread reports of "significant snow"? You're claiming fantastically accurate forecasting results for an extensive snowfall in Ireland for 10 days in November that nobody else actually saw, but you can't tell me where you saw it reported.

I'd accept all this as harmless eccentricity and a bit of fun if you weren't actively promoting your commercial services and your worldview so widely in the media. Weather is more than just a hobby and believing in this kind of pseudoscience can have grave repurcussions.

imstrongerthanu

octo wrote: »

Sorry Ken, nobody's denying it was wet. But could you tell us where you saw these widespread reports of "significant snow"? You're claiming fantastically accurate forecasting results for an extensive snowfall in Ireland for 10 days in November that nobody else actually saw, but you can't tell me where you saw it reported.

I'd accept all this as harmless eccentricity and a bit of fun if you weren't actively promoting your commercial services and your worldview so widely in the media. Weather is more than just a hobby and believing in this kind of pseudoscience can have grave repurcussions.

Ever hear of a dew point?

Gene Derm

octo wrote: »

Sorry Ken, nobody's denying it was wet. But could you tell us where you saw these widespread reports of "significant snow"? You're claiming fantastically accurate forecasting results for an extensive snowfall in Ireland for 10 days in November that nobody else actually saw, but you can't tell me where you saw it reported.

I'd accept all this as harmless eccentricity and a bit of fun if you weren't actively promoting your commercial services and your worldview so widely in the media. Weather is more than just a hobby and believing in this kind of pseudoscience can have grave repurcussions.

I never claimed 10 days of snow in November, nor observed reports of widespread significant snow. You made that up, but then, meteorologists do these days a la ClimateGate. I said "odd bits of snow" on my website, around Nov 19. as I imagined the southern new Moon would make it cold enough and bring night precipitation in some northern parts. That's all. Rain, yes, and it came when I said it would. As for promoting services on media, so who gets to say who can promote their business in the media and who can't? Is only Met Eireann allowed?

octo

Gene Derm wrote: »

I never claimed 10 days of snow in November, nor observed reports of widespread significant snow. You made that up, but then, meteorologists do these days a la ClimateGate. I said "odd bits of snow" on my website, around Nov 19. as I imagined the southern new Moon would make it cold enough and bring night precipitation in some northern parts. That's all. Rain, yes, and it came when I said it would. As for promoting services on media, so who gets to say who can promote their business in the media and who can't? Is only Met Eireann allowed?

You just highlighted on this forum a few days ago that there WERE significant falls in the second week of November, and on 16th".

Here's what you had written on your website on October 27 (I see you change the forecasts on your website retrospectively, nice one Ken!):

"Chances of snow in Tipperary are in the last few days of November, Jan 20 and 28, Feb 21, the first week in March, and the second week in April. However, there is about a 4degC minimum difference between Tipperary and Northern Ireland, so the north will be affected more. For instance the frosty temperatures up there may kick in in about a week's time, and some northern parts may get some snow around 10 Oct, some significant falls about the second week in Nov, then Nov 16, then Nov 20-23, and in December, snow in the north from about 27th onwards for about 4 days. Then Feb 5th, 21st, the first week in March, then 19 March, and the north may even get snow as late as the first week in May in some places."

this is also quoted by Danno over on IWN on September 29th.

At the moment though, the same page on your site has changed to the far more vague:

"Chances of snow in Tipperary are in the last few days of November, fourth weeks in January and February, the first week in March, and the second week in April. However, there is about a 4degC minimum difference between Tipperary and Northern Ireland, so the north will be affected more. Some northern parts may get some significant falls about the second and last weeks in Nov, and in December, snow in the north in the last few days. Then first and fourth weeks in both Feb and March, and the north may even get snow as late as the first week in May in some places."

[Snip]

Trogdor

Whilst debating views and opinions in here with some sort of evidence to back up your point is fine. Please try to keep it friendly and refrain from blatant abuse on other posters. Any more personal insults will result in a ban.

Deep Easterly

Personally, I have no interest or faith in long range weather, or climate, forecasts. To me, both are equally flawed and claim victory even when a tiny fraction of their forecasts come to fruition, because the absolute chaotic nature of the earth's weather systems will dictate that this will always be the case anyway.

Living as I do, like 10's of 1000's of others, in the west of Ireland where even well considered 12hr/24hr forecasts can occasionally go terribly wrong, I have good reason to be suspicious of any forecast beyond 48hrs, not mind 1 week or even 12 months for that matter.

I also don't really see the point of long range forecasts. For instance, a forecast that predicts a dry week in July 2010 issued in December 2009, what is the actually benefits of that? what good is that forecast now? I am not a farmer, just a working class urban boy, but a lot of my extended family are farmers, and like the many people who depend on the land for a living around Ireland, quality short term forecasts are critical, and like many farmers around, knowledge of their local environment and climate (which cannot be considered by national forecasts) is also a critical factor in determining how much work they can do in any one day.

Octo, you make a lot of valid and compelling points but I think you should not take take it so seriously, just as many people with even the smallest amount of meteorological knowledge don't. If folk want to believe detailed long range forecasts of the next year, and actually see a point to them, then let them off; let the dead bury their own dead if you like.

I am neither condemning or endorsing Ken Ring's forecast for Ireland by saying that; what I think would be more useful for most people in Ireland is if Ken actually gave a detailed short term forecast (within 48hrs) on a regular basis. This is where he might gain some real credit and respect.

mike65

Ken Ring is on Matt Coopers Last Word right now.

200motels

Only caught the end of it, what did he say about the weather for the Christmas period?

paulhac

http://www.todayfm.com/Shows/Weekdays/Matt-Cooper/listen.aspx
Ken Ring starts at around 14.00 on the timer. its the first podcast in the list onthat page: 4.30 to 5.00 3/12//2009

Gene Derm

octo wrote: »

You just highlighted on this forum a few days ago that there WERE significant falls in the second week of November, and on 16th".

Here's what you had written on your website on October 27 (I see you change the forecasts on your website retrospectively, nice one Ken!):

"Chances of snow in Tipperary are in the last few days of November, Jan 20 and 28, Feb 21, the first week in March, and the second week in April. However, there is about a 4degC minimum difference between Tipperary and Northern Ireland, so the north will be affected more. For instance the frosty temperatures up there may kick in in about a week's time, and some northern parts may get some snow around 10 Oct, some significant falls about the second week in Nov, then Nov 16, then Nov 20-23, and in December, snow in the north from about 27th onwards for about 4 days. Then Feb 5th, 21st, the first week in March, then 19 March, and the north may even get snow as late as the first week in May in some places."

this is also quoted by Danno over on IWN on September 29th.

At the moment though, the same page on your site has changed to the far more vague:

"Chances of snow in Tipperary are in the last few days of November, fourth weeks in January and February, the first week in March, and the second week in April. However, there is about a 4degC minimum difference between Tipperary and Northern Ireland, so the north will be affected more. Some northern parts may get some significant falls about the second and last weeks in Nov, and in December, snow in the north in the last few days. Then first and fourth weeks in both Feb and March, and the north may even get snow as late as the first week in May in some places."

[Snip]

Well I do reserve the right to edit my website from time to time to make things more succinct. I have not changed anything ssential. I shall continue to edit and change paragraphs to freshen them for previous readers. The leeway is always 1-3 days in longrange and I have never strayed from that. If you have a problem then I suggest you exercise your choice to simply not read it. As regards the chances of November snow, I was talking about parts of N Ireland only.

Gene Derm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I also don't really see the point of long range forecasts.

Fine, but as you say you don't speak for everyone, and my service exists for those who need to plan well ahead. For example my forecast all year (offered for free) was for summer to begin around 7 September and run for about two weeks. That enabled farmers to plan cropping, employ staff, hire machinery and put investment into crop storgage. As a result, many escaped financial downfall. Is that not a good thing?



I am neither condemning or endorsing Ken Ring's forecast for Ireland by saying that; what I think would be more useful for most people in Ireland is if Ken actually gave a detailed short term forecast (within 48hrs) on a regular basis. This is where he might gain some real credit and respect.

But why, when that is what Met Eireann is supposed to be set up to do? I don't seek credit and respect for short term forecasting. I simply don't have the computer modelling, the satellites, the teams of international meteorological committees, the hurricane centres, the media contracts and the interest. The old astrometeorology is about cycles, of planets moving through constellation grid points, which regularly return. In 48 hours there is not much change in the positions of the planets.

octo

Gene Derm wrote: »

Well I do reserve the right to edit my website from time to time to make things more succinct. I have not changed anything ssential. I shall continue to edit and change paragraphs to freshen them for previous readers. The leeway is always 1-3 days in longrange and I have never strayed from that. If you have a problem then I suggest you exercise your choice to simply not read it. As regards the chances of November snow, I was talking about parts of N Ireland only.

Make things more succinct? You deleted a list of specific dates when you predicted it was going to snow, and you did it after the snow didn't come!

I advise others to make up their own minds. I'd particularly like to hear from Danno.

octo

octo wrote: »

Make things more succinct? You deleted a list of specific dates when you predicted it was going to snow, and you did it after the snow didn't come!

With respect,what evidence do you have of the exact date that Ken Rings site was modified or that it was specifically done after the event rather than before the event?
Have you been viewing and saving that particular page every day since it was first issued or is it something else ?

Deep Easterly

Gene Derm wrote: »

I don't seek credit and respect for short term forecasting. I simply don't have the computer modelling, the satellites, the teams of international meteorological committees, the hurricane centres, the media contracts and the interest. The old astrometeorology is about cycles, of planets moving through constellation grid points, which regularly return. In 48 hours there is not much change in the positions of the planets.

I stand by my assertion that long range forecasts, no matter how correct on incorrect they may be, are pointless. Farmers esp need to plan their working day on a day to day, or in many cases, hour by hour. basis, based on quality short range forecasting, that is the nature of thier job, especially in a climate so vigorous and unpredictable like it is here in Ireland.

Why would you need access computer modelling, satellites and all of the above quoted to make a quality short range forecast? I find it ironic that you can claim to make very detailed forecasts for a specific date 6 to 12 months in advance for a very specific area based on astrology, yet the same method is not capable of being specific about a much more useful short range forecast?

I do acknowledge that this irony is based more on my own ignorance and lack of understanding about your methods than just a blatant criticism of them.

nilhg

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I stand by my assertion that long range forecasts, no matter how correct on incorrect they may be, are pointless. Farmers esp need to plan their working day on a day to day, or in many cases, hour by hour. basis, based on quality short range forecasting, that is the nature of thier job, especially in a climate so vigorous and unpredictable like it is here in Ireland.

I can only speak for one farmer here, me but it depends on the season when we're spraying hour to hour is important, harvesting good long range is very important, if the crop is wet but possible to cut (but would have high drying cost) and good weather is forecast a week out then we can wait, but the week out is not reliable so far.

Pigeon Reaper

Deleted User wrote: »

With respect,what evidence do you have of the exact date that Ken Rings site was modified or that it was specifically done after the event rather than before the event?
Have you been viewing and saving that particular page every day since it was first issued or is it something else ?

very simple method of checking previous content on websites. Check out Wayback Machine at web.archive.org. There's no need to keep checking the site for changes as it's likely to be archived.

Pigeon Reaper

Pigeon Reaper wrote: »

very simple method of checking previous content on websites. Check out Wayback Machine at web.archive.org. There's no need to keep checking the site for changes as it's likely to be archived.

Never used that site myself-is there an easy way to check when a page has been edited or do you have to go through day by day on there aswell?

54321

I must totally disagree that long range forecasts are of no use to farmers. In fact they are of great use in time management, land management and even grazing management.
Yes short term is vital too, for that Met Eireann or BBC weather are used daily.

Deep Easterly

54321 wrote: »

I must totally disagree that long range forecasts are of no use to farmers. In fact they are of great use in time management, land management and even grazing management.

In what way?

octo

Deleted User wrote: »

With respect,what evidence do you have of the exact date that Ken Rings site was modified or that it was specifically done after the event rather than before the event?
Have you been viewing and saving that particular page every day since it was first issued or is it something else ?

Well, no I haven't, but what I do know for sure is this:

I saved his original page to my hard-drive on October 27 and Danno quotes the same original page on November 2. The amended page is quoted by yessam on November 24 and that is what's there today. So -
His November snow forecast has been amended - sometime in November - and the altered forecast is remarkably less wrong and inaccurate than the original. You don't have to be Sherlock Holmes.

Gene Derm

octo wrote: »

Make things more succinct? You deleted a list of specific dates when you predicted it was going to snow, and you did it after the snow didn't come!
.

No I didn't. You are assuming that. I wouldn't know when the snow didn't come because I only have newspaper reports to go on, and I haven't been looking them up. I would be surprised to be told that absolutely nowhere in N Ireland had any snow whatsoever in November. Can you or anyone enlighten me on that?
In all of my forecasts I suggest potential times and chances for rain or snow. I am not God, I cannot say for sure what will happen. That is why all forecasters say "chance of.., possible..etc." We detect times when we think conditions may be fortune for certain events. All the meteorologists I am acquanted with know this, it seems you may be one of those who don't. There are many factors that have to come together for e.g. snow. A prediction is usually an opinion on the chance of enough of the correct factors coming together on the day to produce what we call snow. A slightly rising temperature after a freezing, the dew point, ground and air temperatures, wind speeds, precipitation levels - which mean prior evaporation from another location, elevation, and the matching of cloud layers to the altitude of cold fronts are some of these factors. More importantly what causes these: moon in north, in perigee and full are good predictors, but also sometimes at S dec, in Aquarius and lunar equinox. Not all of these may come together at the same time, or only some may. A prediction can't be wrong, as it is only an opinion, any more than a feeling can be wrong. Anyone else can put up an opposing opinion. Opinions are made in good faith. They may turn out to have been wrong in hindsight, but that is a different matter.

mikom

octo wrote: »

You don't have to be Sherlock Holmes.

No, but you are coming across like Professor Moriarty in this thread.

octo

octo wrote: »

Well, no I haven't, but what I do know for sure is this:

I saved his original page to my hard-drive on October 27 and Danno quotes the same original page on November 2. The amended page is quoted by yessam on November 24 and that is what's there today. So -
His November snow forecast has been amended - sometime in November - and the altered forecast is remarkably less wrong and inaccurate than the original. You don't have to be Sherlock Holmes.

so you don't know if he generalised it a bit more on say the 3rd of november and you don't know if he did the same with december or march yet you proceed with the declaration of Guilty M'lud ad hominem...

With all due respect,I'd advise not applying for Sherlocks job anytime soon with that attitude to debate.

Gene Derm

Deleted User wrote: »

so you don't know if he generalised it a bit more on say the 3rd of november and you don't know if he did the same with december or march yet you proceed with the declaration of Guilty M'lud ad hominem...

With all due respect,I'd advise not applying for Sherlocks job anytime soon with that attitude to debate.

I did ask for someone to tell me if it snowed anywhere in November in Northern Ireland as I suggested there was the potential to do, both in my more detailed forecast and the altered briefer version. Without that kind of observational feedback there is little point to this endless red herring of discussing whether or not I changed words around to read faster - I said for in November, chance of odd falls of snow in parts of the north, and rain for the rest of the country, and Octo the professional meteorologist here has said there was no snow anywhere, just rain. I would like that verified by others because I find that hard to believe as I'm sure that it would have been cold enough at the times I suggested. I am 14,000 miles away so am at a disadantage, and reliant on observations by others. So can we possibly bring the conversation back to that please?
regards
Ken Ring

Duiske

Ken, there was snow on high ground in the south-east on Saturday night (28 Nov). There was a covering of snow on Mt Leinster in Carlow, which was gone by Tuesday morning (1st Dec). You can see from this thread that there were reports of snow in counties Laois, kilkenny,Waterford and Kerry that same weekend, also on higher ground.

Gene Derm

Duiske wrote: »

Ken, there was snow on high ground in the south-east on Saturday night (28 Nov). There was a covering of snow on Mt Leinster in Carlow, which was gone by Tuesday morning (1st Dec). You can see from this thread that there were reports of snow in counties Laois, kilkenny,Waterford and Kerry that same weekend, also on higher ground.

Thanks Duiske
On my website I had(and still have) "Chances of snow in Tipperary are in the last few days of November" and "Meath may get flurries mid and in the last week of November," and forecasts usually take in about an 80 mile radius of potential.
The thing is, winter full moons have the moon's position far to the north, which generate north winds and colder temperatures. Winter new moons in the south associated with apogees or perigees are also cold breeders. The next snow potential periods are Dec 15-16, Dec 27-Jan 6, Jan 16-17, 23-25. I'll post February's later.

Gene Derm

Gene Derm wrote: »

So can we possibly bring the conversation back to that please?
regards
Ken Ring

Certainly.
There was close to a foot of snow on the top of lugnaquilla mtn co wicklow in parts last week with several inches at the bottom [3039 ft asl].
High ground in co wicklow had a fair splattering and theres still some around lug as I type.

kindredspirit

Gene Derm wrote: »

Thanks Duiske
On my website I had(and still have) "Chances of snow in Tipperary are in the last few days of November"

There was snow on top of the Galtee Mountains in Tipperary. Don't know how deep but you could see the white caps.