Ken Ring

kerry1960

Gene Derm wrote: »

Answering these personal baitings is just a waste of my time. I have already addressed all of these recent questions but if members choose not to listen and would rather push their own barrows of amusement. What I did 12 years ago for whatever reason is neither here nor there. I shall take part in this forum when discussion about weather forecasting returns.
regards
Ken Ring

Sorry to see I'm wasting your time Ken , but we are dealing with an extremely complex and scientific subject , and as you seem to be the expert , I'm asking again ...for the third time ....what are your scientific qualifications please ???

Joe Public

Jeesus! don't be giving the moderators ideas or they'll be looking for CVs before you're allowed post on this forum:)

I like Ken's inputs no matter how right or wrong they are, he offers an alternative view into long range weather forecasting. It's not as if conventional science is coming up with better methodology and it's up to the public to listen or not. If someone arrived in a spaceship, not saying Ken is from outer space, and told us we are all wrong would you listen or ask their qualifications?

boardswalker

From the UK Independent

The Big Question: Should the BBC drop the Met Office as its official weather forecaster?

By Michael McCarthy, Environment Editor

Tuesday, 19 January 2010

Why are we asking this now?

Rather than renewing its current weather forecasting contract with the Met Office automatically, when it expires in April, the BBC is putting it out to tender – for the first time since 1922, when national broadcaster and national forecaster first became partners. No one on either side says how much the contract is worth.


Why would the BBC drop a national institution?

Allegedly because it is looking for a cheaper alternative from among the many independent weather forecasting companies which have sprung up in the last 20 years. But the Beeb's move also coincides with a period in which the Met Office's forecasting accuracy has come under unprecedented fire. There is speculation that the two may be linked.

Have recent forecasts been inaccurate?

Some of them have. Most recently was the snow in London and the south-east last Wednesday morning, which was heavier than had been predicted, and caused widespread disruption. But beyond that, the Met Office failed to predict this year's Big Freeze as a whole.

The winter seasonal forecast for 2009-10, issued on September 29 last year, said that "winter temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including the UK. Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year for the UK, but there is still a one in seven chance of a cold winter". As it turned out, we are in the middle of the coldest winter for 30 years. And then there was the famous case of the "barbecue summer".

Can we recap on that?

Last April, the Met Office issued its seasonal forecast for summer 2009, and said it was "odds-on for a barbecue summer", in a tremendously resonant phrase which made big headlines everywhere, not least because it was such a terrific piece of good news after the washout summers of 2007 and 2008. Chief forecaster, Ewen McCallum, said at the press conference: "We do not see the London bus syndrome of three wet summers coming in a row. The likelihood of that happening is extremely small." That was a hostage to fortune if ever there was one: July turned out to be one of the wettest summer months on record.

By the end of it, the resentment from a public whose hopes had been firmly raised for hot dry evenings on the patio was so intense, that the Met Office felt obliged to issue a public apology.

End of Quote

I'm not sure why the newspapers focus on results. Surely its just the science qualifications of UK met staff that matter!.

Deep Easterly

I can't see the BBC dropping UKMO forecasts. I think it is just a scare tactic. If they were to change, I think it would be a great pity as in fairness, the UKMO is up there in terms of short term forecasting accuracy. The above quotation that the UKMO did not see the 'big freeze' coming is just horse****, it is based on nothing and nowhere near the truth.

The UKMO could do worse than drop their seasonal and annual forecasts as they are just a complete waste of time and have done nothing but stain, significantly, their overall reputation.

kerry1960

''When there is no moon in the sky , the air goes out
and the cold of space comes down and condenses .
When the moon is full , the clouds are pushed away
and its warmer'' by Ken Ring .


Personally and with only a basic grasp of meteorology i would agree that the Moon has some influence as a driver of the worlds weather systems after all it affects the tides doesn't it , but the part im having trouble with is the very 'cornerstone' of his methodology ie this 18yr 10day cycle (with the 3day window :rolleyes:),last summer i listened to Ken on today fm predicting a return to more settled weather in September and to his credit he got it spot on , success , so with a theory that neatly fits every weather pattern into this newly discovered cycle the guy was on a winner , and set to become a giant among the scientific community it seems .

Now in Ireland average seasonal weather patterns are rarely disruptive so for me the purpose of any kind of a long range forecast is to pinpoint a trend or an extreme , and with the 'chaos theory' being discounted in favour of the outer planets his LRF should be set in stone , after all these same planets are set in orbit aren't they , well as we say the rest is history , it didn't quite work out for him this winter did it.

And now i know why , he has no scientific training or any scientific qualifications what so ever , his so called predictions carry no more weight that the washerwoman's at Met Eireann , or the UKMO for that matter who in the face of overwhelming evidence finally admitted their LRF were useless but the UKMO don't hawk their wares to the Irish public, Ring does , and he continues to defend his hopeless record for this winter in a blizzard of bluster , now I'm happy to admit that my education is at best standard and at worst from quite a few years ago , so i'm not great in the intellectual dept but when i perhaps rather crudely expressed my reservations about his November out-put (p8) , i was fobbed off as a ''straw doll '' a very public put down indeed , but now who's the straw doll .

If people are happy with his methods that's fine by me , go ahead and spend your money its a free country , he may even throw in one of his publications about pawmistry as a bonus , but i'll wager there are quite a few farmers and householders who will happily stuff his predictions where the sun don't shine ....

snow ghost

snow ghost wrote: »

"The autumn will be wet apart from a dry and cool first week in November. December will be dry between the 10th and 24th, and Christmas (will be) wet but not white. Chances of snow do come around on January 20 and February 20, and in the first week of March."

http://www.independent.ie/farming/kiwi-weather-expert-forecasts--a-watery-end-to-dreadful-2009-1886289.html

Yet Ken has also been forecasting that there will be a dry spell starting around the 19th?

“This month coming up I am saying there should be overnight snow around this month's New Moon then precipitation will dwindle to almost nothing, with a dry spell beginning on or near the 19th,"

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Tuesday 19th January, absolutley no sign of that dry spell yet, and precipitation certainly hasn't dwindled to almost nothing.

We'll see if it snows tomorrow.

Gene Derm

snow ghost wrote: »

Tuesday 19th January, absolutley no sign of that dry spell yet, and precipitation certainly hasn't dwindled to almost nothing.

We'll see if it snows tomorrow.

"Outlook:
Friday
A brighter, fresher day will follow for Friday with sunny periods and showers..with the east and southeast getting the best of the sunny breaks. By then wind will have decreased and veered southwest or west. Friday night will be dry, cold and frosty. Fog will be a problem also as the winds fall light and variable.

Saturday
The overnight frost and fog may be slow to clear in places during Saturday as there will be little or no wind. Otherwise the day will be dry with sunny periods. Cold and frosty again Saturday night. Some fog also, but this will clear in a freshening breeze early Sunday.

Sunday
The day will start dry and bright, but a band of rain will spread later from the west followed by a clearance during Sunday evening".
(-Met Eireann 20/1)

snow ghost

Well it is dry and bright for most of the country today Ken, not aware of any snow yet, but you never know somewhere on high ground might get a few flakes tonight.

That said it is meant to become wet and windy again tomorrow, so unfortunately today can't be classed as a 'spell'.

You seem to be putting a lot of faith in the Met Eirann forecast there ken.

Gene Derm

snow ghost wrote: »

Well it is dry and bright for most of the country today Ken

Yes, still dry as predicted and the dry spell did begin around the 19th
(Met Eireann today, 24 January)
"GENERAL: ..a good deal of dry weather overall..
SUNDAY NIGHT: ..mostly dry..
MONDAY: ..largely dry day..
TUESDAY:..mostly dry day.."

Ahead: Ireland has another 10 days of mostly dry weather until the next round of precipitation
see my website for more
https://www.predictweather.co.nz/assets/articles/article_resources.php?id=168
Ken Ring

nacho libre

do you forsee a northerly airflow developing in 10 days then?

counting down the 10 days if so.... snow addiction is a most terrible affliction:p

Gene Derm

nacho libre wrote: »

do you forsee a northerly airflow developing in 10 days then?

Yes, fed by thunderstorms north of the country

Gene Derm

snow ghost wrote: »

You seem to be putting a lot of faith in the Met Eirann forecast there ken.

(Met Eireann today, 25 January, say more dry weather this week)
Tuesday:..mostly dry
Wednesday: Rainfall amounts small and drier, brighter weather will follow..
Thursday: ..mostly dry with bright or sunny spells

I never said ME were not good at daily stuff.