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Predict the result?

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    #32
    marco_polo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,077 Mod ✭✭✭✭marco_polo


    PomBear wrote: »
    Ladbrokes actually have better odds, anyone know why the odds are so certain of a certain result

    Weight of money on a yes, nothing more that that. The indirect reason for that was probably the opinion polls.


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    #33
    free-man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 350 ✭✭free-man


    marco_polo wrote: »
    Weight of money on a yes, nothing more that that. The indirect reason for that was probably the opinion polls.

    William hill have 10/1 for No :)


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    #34
    View
    Registered Users Posts: 3,872 ✭✭✭View


    Yes side to win - I suspect the 55-60% range in most constituencies.

    Poland to complete ratification within a week or so.
    Ireland to complete ratification by mid-October.

    Czech Supreme court to rule against the latest petition there by early November. Czech President to fall out of upper storey window in mysterious accident shortly thereafter. :)

    Lisbon modified EU Treaties in force by Christmas.

    Patricia McKenna and entire membership of PANA drafted into EU Army and sent somewhere really, really dangerous shortly thereafter (The last one is just a hope though).


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    #35
    marco_polo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,077 Mod ✭✭✭✭marco_polo


    View wrote: »
    Yes side to win - I suspect the 55-60% range in most constituencies.

    Poland to complete ratification within a week or so.
    Ireland to complete ratification by mid-October.

    Czech Supreme court to rule against the latest petition there by early November. Czech President to fall out of upper storey window in mysterious accident shortly thereafter. :)

    Lisbon modified EU Treaties in force by Christmas.

    Patricia McKenna and entire membership of PANA drafted into EU Army and sent somewhere really, really dangerous shortly thereafter (The last one is just a hope though).

    The only thing missing from the timeline is the exact point at which Sinn Fein will become pro EU again.


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    #36
    PomBear
    Registered Users Posts: 1,885 ✭✭✭PomBear


    marco_polo wrote: »
    The only thing missing from the timeline is the exact point at which Sinn Fein will become pro EU again.

    define pro EU??


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    #37
    8-10
    Registered Users Posts: 13,329 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    pog it wrote: »
    No side to win by 5-10%.

    Talking to people all day and 3/4 are voting no in my home county.

    What constituency? The highest NO last time was 65.1%, Dublin SW. I can guarantee you guys will not be voting 75% no.

    In any case I am betting on constituencies which I think will vote NO as there are some very good odds out there. Paddy Power is giving EVERY constituency odds-on to vote YES, bar one, Donegal SW, which is only 6/5 and hasn't a hope of being YES.

    I'm snapping up Donegal SW @ 8/13, Donegal NE @ 1/2 and Cork NCentral @ 11/10 to be NO's.

    But very interested to hear where you represent? Certainly won't be 3/4's but how confident are you of a constituency NO vote?

    Also my overall prediction -

    YES 67%
    NO 31%


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    #38
    marco_polo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,077 Mod ✭✭✭✭marco_polo


    PomBear wrote: »
    define pro EU??

    Where they fully support the EU, despite having campaigned vigoursly against the previous treaty that brought it into existence. Before doing it all over again next time around. Rinse, wash, repeat.

    Oops off topic.


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    #39
    pog it
    Registered Users Posts: 2,912 ✭✭✭pog it


    Since it's figures you want:

    No: 56%
    Yes 44%

    Of the votes that are made of course.


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    #40
    8-10
    Registered Users Posts: 13,329 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    pog it wrote: »
    Since it's figures you want:

    No: 56%
    Yes 44%

    Of the votes that are made of course.

    I wanna know your constituency and how confident of a NO you are? ;)


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    #41
    ghost_ie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 545 ✭✭✭ghost_ie


    pog it wrote: »
    Since it's figures you want:

    No: 56%
    Yes 44%

    Of the votes that are made of course.

    And here's a topic for another day...should we, as some European countries do, make it mandatory for people to vote? I've heard people saying after other elections and referendums (referenda?) "I don't like what this Government is doing" or "I disagree with the result of that referendum" and when asked it turns out they never bothered to vote at all.

    I think it will be close. Hopefully the No side will shade it


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    #42
    8-10
    Registered Users Posts: 13,329 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    ghost_ie wrote: »
    And here's a topic for another day...should we, as some European countries do, make it mandatory for people to vote? I've heard people saying after other elections and referendums (referenda?) "I don't like what this Government is doing" or "I disagree with the result of that referendum" and when asked it turns out they never bothered to vote at all.

    God no. I think Yes or No, we're all happy to have a vote. It's not democracy if people are forced to vote.


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    #43
    nesf
    Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    PomBear wrote: »
    Ladbrokes actually have better odds, anyone know why the odds are so certain of a certain result

    I'm fairly certain they do their own internal polling on top of what's been publicly announced. They won't ever release the figures or methodology of these though so they might as well have never happened for the rest of us.


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    #44
    P. Breathnach
    Registered Users Posts: 12,089 ✭✭✭✭P. Breathnach


    Euro_Kraut wrote: »
    Just before poll close on Friday I will stick every prediction here into a spreadsheet and see what the average prediction is. Will be interesting to see how close it is to the actual result and who get closest.

    The predictions need to be in a format like :

    NO 60%
    YES 40%

    In requested format:
    NO 58%
    YES 66%


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    #45
    COUCH WARRIOR
    Closed Accounts Posts: 116 ✭✭COUCH WARRIOR


    P. Breathnach wrote: »
    In requested format:
    NO 58%
    YES 66%
    how many times are you planning on voting yourself;)

    yes 56
    no 44


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    #46
    SafeSurfer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Yes 53.14%
    No 46.86%


    Does anyone anticipate violence such as further petrol bomb attacks on government buildings following announcement of Yes vote?

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



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    #47
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    Does anyone anticipate violence such as further petrol bomb attacks on government buildings following announcement of Yes vote?

    Well they'll have to start the compulsory euthanasia and abortion program some way.


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    #48
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    YES 51%
    NO 49%

    turnout in low 40s :(


    whats the prize for getting it right

    :D


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    #49
    8-10
    Registered Users Posts: 13,329 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    whats the prize for getting it right

    Abortion


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    #50
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,874 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yes 48%
    No 52%


    Not confident of a yes vote :/


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    #51
    Neamhshuntasach
    Registered Users Posts: 2,168 ✭✭✭Neamhshuntasach


    It will be close. I still haven't met anybody who is voting yes outside of boards.ie. A no vote may be stronger than it appears to be. But i've a feeling yes will prevail. Whether it's this time or the 3rd or 4th referendum on it.


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    #52
    meditraitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,207 ✭✭✭meditraitor


    Yes 67%
    No 32%

    A resounding yes,


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    #53
    P. Breathnach
    Registered Users Posts: 12,089 ✭✭✭✭P. Breathnach


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    ... whats the prize for getting it right ...

    Given the patterns of the predictions I see here, the prize would be the satisfaction of seeing the side one favours winning the referendum.


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    #54
    humanji
    Registered Users Posts: 19,976 ✭✭✭✭humanji


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    whats the prize for getting it right
    Don't worry, there'll be no losers here. If you get it wrong you can try again. :P

    The result I'd like is:

    Yes: 100%
    No: 1%
    with a 1% margin of error.

    But in reality I'd say it'd be:

    Yes: 47%
    No: 53%

    And with a turnout of about 58%.


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    #55
    spank_inferno
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,892 ✭✭✭spank_inferno


    I'm predicting a health margin of Victory to the Yes side

    Yes = 71%
    No = 29%

    Anectdotaly in my neck of the woods there is a big swing to the Yes because of fear.


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    #56
    Kev_ps3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,604 ✭✭✭Kev_ps3


    All polls ive seen bar 1 have the Yes side ahead so I predict 60/40 to yes unfortunately..


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    #57
    8-10
    Registered Users Posts: 13,329 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    So who was closest?


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    #58
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    8-10 wrote: »
    So who was closest?

    @meditraitor


    he wins a tank :)


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