Predict the result?

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Euro_Kraut

Good idea.

Yes 64%
No 36%

Turnout 57%

marco_polo

Yes 61%
No 39%

moondogspot

49% : No
47% : Yes
4% : Spoilt Votes

major bill

yes side to scrape it

pog it

No side to win by 5-10%.

Talking to people all day and 3/4 are voting no in my home county.

Rb

Yes 58%
No 42%

Mrmoe

Yes side to win by 10-20%, I think some of the polls are accurate enough predictors that it is near probable that the Yes side will win, the only debate is by how much.

Colpriz

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Based on what?

Larger turn out of the general electorate?
More people are unemployed?
People think FF have srewed us so we'd be better in Europe
Or this is a mockery asked to vote twice wish we had Euopean ministers running Ireland instead of Irish?

Daftendirekt

Yes side by about 5-10%, turnout of about 52%.

Any yes voters expecting a no, or vice versa?

Daftendirekt

Colpriz wrote: »

Based on what?

Larger turn out of the general electorate?
More people are unemployed?
People think FF have srewed us so we'd be better in Europe
Or this is a mockery asked to vote twice wish we had Euopean ministers running Ireland instead of Irish?

Or maybe everyone's sick of having the same old shit thrown back and forth, and just want a light thread on the topic?

Dinner

Daftendirekt wrote: »

Yes side by about 5-10%, turnout of about 52%.

Any yes voters expecting a no, or vice versa?

The pessimist in me, coupled with the strength of the lies in the no side says the no camp could wing it, not by much though.

A few weeks ago I had a few euro left in paddy power account, so I put that on a no victory so the 15 or so euro might help to console me.

I'd still rather a yes vote over the money though.

Euro_Kraut

Just before poll close on Friday I will stick every prediction here into a spreadsheet and see what the average prediction is. Will be interesting to see how close it is to the actual result and who get closest.

The predictions need to be in a format like :

NO 60%
YES 40%

Should be fun*

*in a really nerdy way

free-man

It really is going to be tight..

I'd say 52% No | 48% Yes

I think either is interchangeable depending on the Dont Knows decision in the next 2 days.

bug

NO 51% YES 49%

Irish people's head's begin to spontaneously explode on announcement of final count ala mars attacks.

Sarkozy spontaneously combusts.

ArmaniJeanss

No 41.5%
Yes 58.5%


I converted the 2 most anti-Europe people I know into Yes voters over the last week (my SinnFein/IRA loving next door neighbour and my distrust-all-foreigners Mum) so I'm rather optimistic of a landslide.

major bill

Euro_Kraut wrote: »

Just before poll close on Friday I will stick every prediction here into a spreadsheet and see what the average prediction is. Will be interesting to see how close it is to the actual result and who get closest.

The predictions need to be in a format like :

NO 60%
YES 40%

Should be fun*

*in a really nerdy way

on that note then

YES 54
NO 46

council to play a big part in yes side winning;)

K-9

YES - 22%

NO - 18%

SPOILED - 23%

CONFUSED - 37%

Rb

I hope Sarkozy, Barrosso and Merkel come over to party should we win vote Yes.

The Volt

Rb wrote: »

I hope Sarkozy, Barrosso and Merkel come over to party should we win vote Yes.

Drinks on Nick, dibs on his wife

YES 53%
NO 44%
SPOILED 3%

ArmaniJeanss

Rb wrote: »

I hope Sarkozy, Barrosso and Merkel come over to party should we win vote Yes.

And Silvio, but keep an eye on your womanfolk.

Colpriz

Daftendirekt wrote: »

Or maybe everyone's sick of having the same old shit thrown back and forth, and just want a light thread on the topic?

just wondering if this was gamblers corner or based on something more ..thats all:)

Holsten

No - 56% win.

CliffHuxtabel

Yes :54%

No :46%


Then thankfully this whole ridiculous situation will be over and can be forgotten.

amacachi

No will win with less than 55%.

Plotician

I'm a 'no' voter expecting a 'yes' result.

Slightly confused though as everyone i've talked to bar one has been a 'no' or a 'don't know'.

Either way i think it's going to be closer than anticipated a few weeks ago. The recent radio/tv debates have evened it up a bit.

PomBear

Paddy Power are giving 1/25 on a Yes vote and 8/1 on a no vote, which is mad in my opinion. I stuck on €20 on a no vote:D

Rb

What I'd like to see is how many people who intended to vote No accidentally spoil their vote vs the number of those who intended to vote Yes who accidentally spoiled the vote.

I'm sure there'll be a few amusing sights at the count anyway.

free-man

PomBear wrote: »

Paddy Power are giving 1/25 on a Yes vote and 8/1 on a no vote, which is mad in my opinion. I stuck on €20 on a no vote:D

Are these the best odds you've found?

Might be worth a flurry

No = 62%
Yes = 38%

PomBear

free-man wrote: »

Are these the best odds you've found?

Might be worth a flurry

Ladbrokes actually have better odds, anyone know why the odds are so certain of a certain result

marco_polo

PomBear wrote: »

Ladbrokes actually have better odds, anyone know why the odds are so certain of a certain result

Weight of money on a yes, nothing more that that. The indirect reason for that was probably the opinion polls.

free-man

marco_polo wrote: »

Weight of money on a yes, nothing more that that. The indirect reason for that was probably the opinion polls.

William hill have 10/1 for No

View

Yes side to win - I suspect the 55-60% range in most constituencies.

Poland to complete ratification within a week or so.
Ireland to complete ratification by mid-October.

Czech Supreme court to rule against the latest petition there by early November. Czech President to fall out of upper storey window in mysterious accident shortly thereafter.

Lisbon modified EU Treaties in force by Christmas.

Patricia McKenna and entire membership of PANA drafted into EU Army and sent somewhere really, really dangerous shortly thereafter (The last one is just a hope though).

marco_polo

View wrote: »

Yes side to win - I suspect the 55-60% range in most constituencies.

Poland to complete ratification within a week or so.
Ireland to complete ratification by mid-October.

Czech Supreme court to rule against the latest petition there by early November. Czech President to fall out of upper storey window in mysterious accident shortly thereafter.

Lisbon modified EU Treaties in force by Christmas.

Patricia McKenna and entire membership of PANA drafted into EU Army and sent somewhere really, really dangerous shortly thereafter (The last one is just a hope though).

The only thing missing from the timeline is the exact point at which Sinn Fein will become pro EU again.

PomBear

marco_polo wrote: »

The only thing missing from the timeline is the exact point at which Sinn Fein will become pro EU again.

define pro EU??

8-10

pog it wrote: »

No side to win by 5-10%.

Talking to people all day and 3/4 are voting no in my home county.

What constituency? The highest NO last time was 65.1%, Dublin SW. I can guarantee you guys will not be voting 75% no.

In any case I am betting on constituencies which I think will vote NO as there are some very good odds out there. Paddy Power is giving EVERY constituency odds-on to vote YES, bar one, Donegal SW, which is only 6/5 and hasn't a hope of being YES.

I'm snapping up Donegal SW @ 8/13, Donegal NE @ 1/2 and Cork NCentral @ 11/10 to be NO's.

But very interested to hear where you represent? Certainly won't be 3/4's but how confident are you of a constituency NO vote?

Also my overall prediction -

YES 67%
NO 31%

marco_polo

PomBear wrote: »

define pro EU??

Where they fully support the EU, despite having campaigned vigoursly against the previous treaty that brought it into existence. Before doing it all over again next time around. Rinse, wash, repeat.

Oops off topic.

pog it

Since it's figures you want:

No: 56%
Yes 44%

Of the votes that are made of course.

8-10

pog it wrote: »

Since it's figures you want:

No: 56%
Yes 44%

Of the votes that are made of course.

I wanna know your constituency and how confident of a NO you are?

ghost_ie

pog it wrote: »

Since it's figures you want:

No: 56%
Yes 44%

Of the votes that are made of course.

And here's a topic for another day...should we, as some European countries do, make it mandatory for people to vote? I've heard people saying after other elections and referendums (referenda?) "I don't like what this Government is doing" or "I disagree with the result of that referendum" and when asked it turns out they never bothered to vote at all.

I think it will be close. Hopefully the No side will shade it

8-10

ghost_ie wrote: »

And here's a topic for another day...should we, as some European countries do, make it mandatory for people to vote? I've heard people saying after other elections and referendums (referenda?) "I don't like what this Government is doing" or "I disagree with the result of that referendum" and when asked it turns out they never bothered to vote at all.

God no. I think Yes or No, we're all happy to have a vote. It's not democracy if people are forced to vote.

nesf

PomBear wrote: »

Ladbrokes actually have better odds, anyone know why the odds are so certain of a certain result

I'm fairly certain they do their own internal polling on top of what's been publicly announced. They won't ever release the figures or methodology of these though so they might as well have never happened for the rest of us.

P. Breathnach

Euro_Kraut wrote: »

Just before poll close on Friday I will stick every prediction here into a spreadsheet and see what the average prediction is. Will be interesting to see how close it is to the actual result and who get closest.

The predictions need to be in a format like :

NO 60%
YES 40%

In requested format:
NO 58%
YES 66%

COUCH WARRIOR

P. Breathnach wrote: »

In requested format:
NO 58%
YES 66%

how many times are you planning on voting yourself;)

yes 56
no 44

SafeSurfer

Yes 53.14%
No 46.86%


Does anyone anticipate violence such as further petrol bomb attacks on government buildings following announcement of Yes vote?

turgon

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Does anyone anticipate violence such as further petrol bomb attacks on government buildings following announcement of Yes vote?

Well they'll have to start the compulsory euthanasia and abortion program some way.

ei.sdraob

YES 51%
NO 49%

turnout in low 40s


whats the prize for getting it right

8-10

ei.sdraob wrote: »

whats the prize for getting it right

Abortion

Yes 48%
No 52%


Not confident of a yes vote

Neamhshuntasach

It will be close. I still haven't met anybody who is voting yes outside of boards.ie. A no vote may be stronger than it appears to be. But i've a feeling yes will prevail. Whether it's this time or the 3rd or 4th referendum on it.