Brian Lenihan blames euro and Eastern cheap labour for recession

free to prosper

K-9 wrote: »

Devaluing isn't as important as it was when we entered the EU. Britain isn't as big a factor anymore as it was.

Our trade is roughly divided equally between the UK pound, the euro and the US dollar.

Britain, the US, and EU are all important factors.

PopeBuckfastXVI

free to prosper wrote: »

Our trade is roughly divided equally between the UK pound, the euro and the US dollar.

Britain, the US, and EU are all important factors.

Yes, and he's right that Britain isn't as big a factor as it was.

K-9

free to prosper wrote: »

I welcome Lenihan's honesty in this matter.
It is important to speak the truth.

The EUro and mass immigration led to overheating - fact.
The boom led to bust - fact.
We must learn from our mistakes and find a way out - fact

The same people who currently tell us to vote Yes to Lisbon,
are virtually the same people who told us to vote for
Maastricht - and gave us the crippling euro
and Nice - which gave us mass immigration from Eastern Europe.

These 'Yes Men' are abject liars.

They cannot be believed.

No, Govt. and banks led to overheating. Immigration was a symtom because we had full employment.

Really, if you'd prefer to blame the immigrants and the Euro over our Govt. and banks, well there is no point debating with you.

bill_ashmount

asdasd wrote: »

What gets in my craw about immigrationists ( to coin a phrase for the lover of immigration) is that they dont really give us a figure where they would cull immigration, (and that is where the debate should lie)

I have contacted members of the current government asking this exact question. I have received no reply.

free to prosper

K-9
It is Brian Lenihan which is blaming cheap euro credit caused by Treaty of Maastricht, and mass immigration caused by Nice Treaty.

I accept the lack of proper bank regulation and tax incentives had a part in boom - just not the major part.

It is astounding that Govt minister would admit recession caused by euro and immigration and then have gall to demand we vote YES, to a treaty we have already voted no to.

Democracy EU style eh?

PopeBuckfastXVI

free to prosper wrote: »

K-9
It is Brian Lenihan which is blaming cheap euro credit caused by Treaty of Maastricht, and mass immigration caused by Nice Treaty.

I accept the lack of proper bank regulation and tax incentives had a part in boom - just not the major part.

It is astounding that Govt minister would admit recession caused by euro and immigration and then have gall to demand we vote NO, to a treaty we have already voted no to.

Democracy EU style eh?

First of all he's claiming it, not 'admitting' to it, seeing as he has no evidence for his claim.

Second of all, of course he's going to blame the Euro & Immigration rather than face the truth, which is that his party, FF should bear the brunt of the blame for their crony capitalism, light touch regulation and property based tax incentives.

He should be ashamed of himself, but then he's a FF politician, he was born with a brass neck.

But nice to see the anti-EU opportunists jumping on this one, swallowing it whole while rejecting everything else he says about Lisbon or the EU.

I guess the truth is only the truth when it agrees with your existing ideas eh?

hellboy99

free to prosper wrote: »

It is astounding that Govt minister would admit recession caused by euro and immigration and then have gall to demand we vote NO, to a treaty we have already voted no to.

They now want us to vote NO, do these guys in government have a clue at all and any idea of what they are at :rolleyes:

FF out !
Lisbon "NO"

Dazzler88

topper75 wrote: »

It's a no from me I'm afraid Brian.

i have to agree with the Lads here,a def NO ON LISBON for me.Our government thinks that we are stupid people and that with the country in such a bad state.They think we'll all vote Yes because it seems like a lifeline but trust me its not,it will only make things worse.

Scofflaw

Interestingly, the historical figures don't show any acceleration in the rate of house price rises with accession state immigration.

See here for example. That suggests that house price rises were at their greatest in 1997-2000, well before immigration kicked in.

cordially,
Scofflaw

oscarBravo

Dazzler88 wrote: »

They think we'll all vote Yes because it seems like a lifeline but trust me its not,it will only make things worse.

Why should we trust you?

bill_ashmount

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

But nice to see the anti-EU opportunists jumping on this one, swallowing it whole while rejecting everything else he says about Lisbon or the EU.

I guess the truth is only the truth when it agrees with your existing ideas eh?

Who is jumping on it???? I don't agree with him, but you seem intent on painting anti-EU posters all the same. A few people probably agree and that is all. Seems to be a common tactic of yours in various threads to lump anyone opposed to the EU as opportunists. Change the record.

Scofflaw

Almanac wrote: »

Demand we vote yes you mean.

Just shut down your critical faculties and vote as you are told to, please.

A note to you as a new poster - post on topic. Empty sloganeering like this is not tolerated. Please read the Forum Charter.

moderately,
Scofflaw

PopeBuckfastXVI

bill_ashmount wrote: »

Who is jumping on it????.

The OP.

PopeBuckfastXVI

bill_ashmount wrote: »

Who is jumping on it???? I don't agree with him, but you seem intent on painting anti-EU posters all the same. A few people probably agree and that is all. Seems to be a common tactic of yours in various threads to lump anyone opposed to the EU as opportunists. Change the record.

By the way:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/search.php?searchid=7309559

You may have confused me with someone else perhaps?

K-9

free to prosper wrote: »

K-9
It is Brian Lenihan which is blaming cheap euro credit caused by Treaty of Maastricht, and mass immigration caused by Nice Treaty.

I accept the lack of proper bank regulation and tax incentives had a part in boom - just not the major part.

It is astounding that Govt minister would admit recession caused by euro and immigration and then have gall to demand we vote YES, to a treaty we have already voted no to.

Democracy EU style eh?

Politician in shift blame shocker!

They did this on school water charges and are doing it now on eel fishing.

Look, the EU did not tell the Govt. to give tax incentives and not regulate the banks. Other Euro countries had the exact same low interest rates and had no property bubble. They aren't as badly affected as us, Spain and Latvia.

So, bad Govt. policy led to a reliance on construction and capital taxes. We had full employment in 02/03 so we had to get workers from somewhere as labour for this bubble. If unemployment had been 18% back then, there would have been less immigration as Irish workers would have filled the demand.

Even on immigration, it was Irish Govt. policy not to get a derogation in 01/02 like they did with Bulgaria and Romania. Govt. decisions, not EU. We had the freedom to choose and it seems our Govt. chose the wrong option.

On the Euro point, the Euro trade partners are now just as important as GB. So just as somebody could say it's bad because GB is our biggest trading partner, I could argue it is also good because there are no currency fluctuations with an equally as important trading partner.

One of the reasons Ireland joined the Euro was to reduce our dependence on GB. That policy is slowly working.

free to prosper

Two thirds of our trade is done OUTSIDE the eurozone.

A sky high exchange rate - as with the euro at present is killing Irish exports.

Nothing great about that.

BEcause we can't devalue our currency - we must drop our wages through the floor.

Nothing great about that is there?

Lenihan is stating a fact - not just apportioning blame (his own govt's responsiblity taken into account)

Main levers already given away with euro and temporary derogation to immigration from NAS.

K-9

free to prosper wrote: »

Two thirds of our trade is done OUTSIDE the eurozone.

Indeed. That is 1/3 that we don't have to worry about currency fluctuations. If we where not in it, we'd have another 16 currencies to track.

free to prosper wrote:

A sky high exchange rate - as with the euro at present is killing Irish exports.

You'll be glad to hear that rate is coming back. The jury is still out on if GB did the right thing.
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/exporter-boost-as-sterling-hits-2009-high-against-euro-1775703.html

free to prosper wrote:

Nothing great about that.

BEcause we can't devalue our currency - we must drop our wages through the floor.

Nothing great about that is there?

We are a high wage economy.

So, you've set out what you perceive are the disadvantages of the Euro. What are the advantages?

Scofflaw

free to prosper wrote: »

Two thirds of our trade is done OUTSIDE the eurozone.

A sky high exchange rate - as with the euro at present is killing Irish exports.

Nothing great about that.

BEcause we can't devalue our currency - we must drop our wages through the floor.

Nothing great about that is there?

Lenihan is stating a fact - not just apportioning blame (his own govt's responsiblity taken into account)

Main levers already given away with euro and temporary derogation to immigration from NAS.

You've entirely left out the fact that as a country highly dependent on imports, devaluation would raise the costs of businesses and cause a drop in the standard of living equivalent to a pay cut. Devaluation isn't some kind of magic panacea as you appear to believe - there's good reasons why governments usually resist it.

Nor have you considered the position we'd now be in if our government had had more fiscal instruments at its disposal for the last decade...they were the most pro-cyclical of all EU governments as it was.

cordially,
Scofflaw

thebman

So low interest rates encourage people to get loans?

Right so the government has no other way to discourage people from getting loans they can't afford?

Oh they have other options, I guess the ECB isn't to blame after all so.

K-9

thebman wrote: »

So low interest rates encourage people to get loans?

Right so the government has no other way to discourage people from getting loans they can't afford?

Oh they have other options, I guess the ECB isn't to blame after all so.

Nope, its the Euros and the immigrants fault mostly!

free to prosper

The arguments against the euro and in favour of taking up a new currency have been laid out by journalists

Hermann Kelly, David McWilliams, Matt Cooper and accountant Cormac Lucey.
Will try to track them all down:

The reasoning behind the taking the devaluing of our currency was first laid out here in a
Mail on Sunday article by journo Hermann Kelly:
Irish Mail on Sunday 06.07.2008

Firstof all, you had journo Hermann Kelly in the Irish Mail on Sunday - July 6, 2008 http://www.wiseupjournal.com/?p=395

Then you had David McWilliams in the Irish Indo, July 16, 2008 - http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/if-all-else-fails-then-maybe-its-time-to-ditch-the-euro-1433720.html

Followed by a highly critical editorial in The Irish Times (of all papers) - July 18, 2008 - http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2008/0718/1216073258126.html

And now Matt Cooper in today's Sunday Times. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/article4406818.ece

Cormac Lucey in the SBP http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2009/03/29/story40622.asp

And here is a fine summation of the lot:
http://www.politics.ie/economy/66173-david-mcwilliams-ditch-euro-22.html#post1641822

K-9

free to prosper wrote: »

The arguments against the euro and in favour of taking up a new currency have been laid out by journalists

Hermann Kelly, David McWilliams, Matt Cooper and solicitor Cormac Lucey.
Will try to track them all down:

The reasoning behind the taking the devaluing of our currency was first laid out here in a
Mail on Sunday article by journo Hermann Kelly:
Irish Mail on Sunday 06.07.2008

Firstof all, you had journo Hermann Kelly in the Irish Mail on Sunday - July 6, 2008 http://www.wiseupjournal.com/?p=395

Then you had David McWilliams in the Irish Indo, July 16, 2008 - http://www.independent.ie/opinion/colum ... 33720.html

Followed by a highly critical editorial in The Irish Times (of all papers) - July 18, 2008 - http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opi ... 58126.html

And now Matt Cooper in today's Sunday Times. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/commen ... 406818.ece

And here is a fine summation of the lot:
http://www.politics.ie/economy/66173-david-mcwilliams-ditch-euro-22.html#post1641822

Those articles, well the 2 I can get, are a year old.

7, I get a 404 error, the other needs a subscription.

I'll have a look and reply later.

asdasd

So low interest rates encourage people to get loans?

Right so the government has no other way to discourage people from getting loans they can't afford?

Oh they have other options, I guess the ECB isn't to blame after all so.

ignoring the fact that you seem to be having a conversation with a silent partner --- the easiest way for a State to control credit conditions is by having a central bank, and it's own currency. it is pointless to give that up and try control monetary supply the hard way.

K-9

Just 2 quick points on the McWilliams one, we have never been net contributors to the EU and the timeline of it happening has increased with recent events. The EU has relaxed the 3% deficit requirement.

free to prosper

Apologies K-9
All links on my post now fixed.
regards

oscarBravo

asdasd wrote: »

ignoring the fact that you seem to be having a conversation with a silent partner --- the easiest way for a State to control credit conditions is by having a central bank, and it's own currency. it is pointless to give that up and try control monetary supply the hard way.

EMU is "pointless"? Now you tell us...

You don't think you're taking a slightly... simplistic approach to this?

topper75

A relaunched punt would be a lamb to speculative slaughter.

Hell, I would even be on to phone the broker myself looking for a piece of the blood-soaked action. God save Ireland and all that but....:pac:

Anyone want to argue otherwise with me on that?

Time Magazine

free to prosper wrote: »

A sky high exchange rate - as with the euro at present is killing Irish exports.

Nothing great about that.

Fascinating. Why, then, has the value of our exports not fallen over the past year?

Also please stop citing David McWilliams and some no-name accountant on issues of monetary policy. Find me ONE academic Irish economist who wants us to pull out of EMU and I'll be impressed.

There are no real economists who want us to pull out. That thread has the nice statistic that all three of Ireland's top three economists comment on it. Number one says "this option should not be taken seriously", number two says MacWilliams highlights "the risks of rhetorical commentary", while number three calls it "impossibly costly". The ESRI's main macroeconomist says "[n]o serious person could contemplate the disruption which leaving EMU would entail."

So all wisdom says you're wrong so please stop citing journalists and accountants. Or are you going to take the line that independent academics cannot be trusted?

BlitzKrieg

while number three calls it "impossibly costly". The ESRI's main macroeconomist says "[n]o serious person could contemplate the disruption which leaving EMU would entail."

I am thinking right then in a very layman's thinking that the cost to relaunch the punt or a new currency not tied to the euro would cost each individual taxpayer more then the current:

The latest interest rate rise alone puts in additional monthly burden of about €40 on a typical €250,000 mortgage over 30 years.

that one of the articles provided by Free to Prosper linked?

K-9

The Business post one was wrote by:

Cormac Lucey is a chartered accountant and an associate of the Irish Management Institute. He was a special adviser to former minister and tánaiste Michael McDowell from 2003 to 2007

Ahem!

SBPost wrote:

Low corporate tax rates did help to attract large amounts of foreign direct investment but, as manufacturing jobs in Ireland actually declined in number over the last decade, this cannot seriously be offered as a substantial explanation for the extent of economic growth.

Confused on that one.

Overall, it seems to be the same blame the Euro stance, not Govt. policy or lack of regulation of banks.

Whether it's the way out, I don't know. I'd prefer to wait and see was GB's policy correct or short termism.

One of the main reasons for staying in the Euro is Foreign Investment. Came across this article arguing for GB to join exactly because of that and it applies even more for Ireland. It's a couple of years old but still relevant:
http://www.times-publications.com/publications/ERSpring03/ER_24.htm