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Brian Lenihan blames euro and Eastern cheap labour for recession

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    #32
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    free to prosper wrote: »
    Thanks Solice,

    Spain voted yes to the Lisbon Treaty and its unemployment rate has increased to 18 per cent.

    Not a great advertisement for voting yes.

    Better I think to vote No to Lisbon and keep as much democratic control of our countries future are possible.

    Spain hasn't voted on Lisbon at all - it voted on the EU Constitution. In 2005. And the EUC did not then come into force. Spain's 2009 unemployment rate is as likely to relate to that vote as to the phase of the moon.

    Where on earth did you pick up that incredibly inaccurate little gem? Or is it your own work? If it is, I would strenuously recommend avoiding any career that involves the word 'analysis'.

    highly amused,
    Scofflaw


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    #33
    professore
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,857 ✭✭✭professore


    free to prosper wrote: »
    What do you think was the largest factor in the overheating of the economy - cheap euro credit or mass immigration?

    Continuing in the mood of thinly-disguised racism:

    Stupid paddy punters paying way over the odds for housing with money lent to them by stupid paddy banks and encouraged by enormous tax breaks from the stupid paddy government voted for overwhelmingly by the paddy punters (the non-UK immigrants can't vote in national elections). The immigrants only came because there was so much work. How many of the 1/2 million are still here?


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    #34
    PopeBuckfastXVI
    Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    free to prosper wrote: »
    Thanks Solice,

    Spain voted yes to the Lisbon Treaty and its unemployment rate has increased to 18 per cent.

    Not a great advertisement for voting yes.

    Better I think to vote No to Lisbon and keep as much democratic control of our countries future are possible.

    Scofflaws correction on what Spain actually voted on notwithstanding. Here's a thought, seeing as we're pointing out entirely unrelated phenomena and drawing inferences, with no logical validity...

    What has happened to Ireland's unemployment rate since it voted No to Lisbon?


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    #35
    IIMII
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,366 ✭✭✭IIMII


    PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »
    Why do you think immigration was the match?
    Put simply, it was bad enough that so much planning permission was given out for residential development and that there was so much cheap credit at that particular point. But even with zoning and cheap credit, the tidal wave of (transient) construction related immigration has left us high and dry on the beach. If hadn't been able to spew out so many new homes over the past 5 years, house-building would have been more moderate, and construction work that might have kept x amount of Irish construction workers busy for ten years, would not have been burnt up in a fraction of that time by multiply our construction workforce so recklessly for that period.

    No, many of those migrants are off again, and we have feck all work for our own construction workers for God knows how many more years. We didn't become multicultural from 2004 to '09 - we imported consumers and construction workers. No the construction is gone, so too are those consumers, leaving many without a pot to piss in.

    From the point of view of economic stability, what we did from 2004 was suicidal


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    #36
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    free to prosper wrote: »
    Irish Ferry workers have been hammered!
    Unless I am very much mistaken, the dispute you are referring to was resolved via the Labour Relations Commission?
    free to prosper wrote: »
    Since May 2004 , half a million immigrants from new EU accession states have come to work in Ireland.
    Prove it.
    free to prosper wrote: »
    According to the CSO figures 90 per cent of new jobs in 2007 went to non-Irish nationals.
    Hmm. I think you’re referring to a quote attributable to one Conor “Google is not my friend” Lenihan?
    free to prosper wrote: »
    The latest Welfare figures show 29,000 PPS number have been given to non-Irish nationals in Ireland since the start of 2009.
    I ain’t goin’ there again.
    free to prosper wrote: »
    That's what I call hammered.
    I see. So when you say we’ve been “hammered” by immigrants, what you mean is, a lot of non-Irish people now live in Ireland and you’re attempting to argue (by throwing together a few random “facts” and figures) that they are to blame for our current economic malaise?


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    #37
    daveyboy_1ie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,352 ✭✭✭daveyboy_1ie


    The world is in a reccesion of course but very few are in such a bad styate as us, overspending with FF over the last decade nearly, unemployment rising and lots of mortgage holders in negative equity that will cripple them for years to come and this is all a result of FF's policies over the last two terms when they encouraged a nation that had 25% of people directly or indirectly employed in the construction industry (feeding greedy speculators).

    So the best thing we can do is put someone else in power, they cant make a b*lls of it as much as FF, who have had their chance and blew it BIG time. Hopefully things get better soon but we will recover slower than the rest I am afraid.

    As for the Lisbon treaty, how is it a democratic process when a government has another referendum when the result they wanted origianlly did not happen??? :)


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    #38
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    free to prosper wrote: »
    Spain voted yes to the Lisbon Treaty and its unemployment rate has increased to 18 per cent.

    Not a great advertisement for voting yes.
    Ireland voted ‘No’ to Lisbon and now it’s raining.

    Hmm….


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    #39
    P. Breathnach
    Registered Users Posts: 12,089 ✭✭✭✭P. Breathnach


    free to prosper wrote: »
    Spain voted yes to the Lisbon Treaty and its unemployment rate has increased to 18 per cent.

    Not a great advertisement for voting yes.

    What was the connection between Spain voting yes and its current unemployment rate? The wrath of God?
    Better I think to vote No to Lisbon and keep as much democratic control of our countries future are possible.

    Most of our economic development over recent decades has been greatly helped by our EEC/EC/EU membership. Our recent crash has been exacerbated by the way we used our democratic control of our country's future.


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    #40
    free to prosper
    Closed Accounts Posts: 106 ✭✭free to prosper


    Apologies Scofflaw.
    Spanish people who knew very little about EU constitution - voted to pass EU constitution, not the treaty of Lisbon.

    They voted Yes in 2005.

    Their current unemployment rate is currently 18 per cent.

    (Remember, its a yes side argument - vote Yes and everything will be just grand) Not proven by reality we see is it?

    The Common Market - a free and open market is good for the IRish economy.

    But Lisbon turns the EU towards being a political union and will not help our economy one iota.


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    #41
    solice
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,110 ✭✭✭solice


    free to prosper wrote: »
    Apologies Scofflaw.
    Spanish people who knew very little about EU constitution - voted to pass EU constitution, not the treaty of Lisbon.

    They voted Yes in 2005.

    There current unemployment rate is currently 18 per cent.

    (remember its a yes side argument - vote Yes and everything will be just grand) Not proven by reality we see is it?

    I am always wary of people who suddenly turn up and start racking up their post counter on such troll like posts - sensational and ill-informed

    Spains unemployment has nothing to do with the EU constitution or Lisbon, neither are enforced! The main reason for unemployment being so high is due to their over reliance on the tourism sector which is obviously going to be affected by a global recession!


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    #42
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    IIMII wrote: »
    We didn't become multicultural from 2004 to '09 - we imported consumers and construction workers. No the construction is gone, so too are those consumers, leaving many without a pot to piss in.
    That’s just a touch simplistic, don’t you think? Every immigrant worked in construction and has now moved on?


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    #43
    PopeBuckfastXVI
    Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    IIMII wrote: »
    Put simply, it was bad enough that so much planning permission was given out for residential development and that there was so much cheap credit at that particular point. But even with zoning and cheap credit, the tidal wave of (transient) construction related immigration has left us high and dry on the beach. If hadn't been able to spew out so many new homes over the past 5 years, house-building would have been more moderate, and construction work that might have kept x amount of Irish construction workers busy for ten years, would not have been burnt up in a fraction of that time by multiply our construction workforce so recklessly for that period.

    No, many of those migrants are off again, and we have feck all work for our own construction workers for God knows how many more years. We didn't become multicultural from 2004 to '09 - we imported consumers and construction workers. No the construction is gone, so too are those consumers, leaving many without a pot to piss in.

    From the point of view of economic stability, what we did from 2004 was suicidal

    All of that would be true without immigration, we would have just been paying brickies X euro an hour instead of Y. (X > Y)

    Capital appreciation and greed caused the boom/bust.

    The demand was serviced by immigration, but immigration was a symptom, not a cause.


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    #44
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    I see. So when you say we’ve been “hammered” by immigrants, what you mean is, a lot of non-Irish people now live in Ireland and you’re attempting to argue (by throwing together a few random “facts” and figures) that they are to blame for our current economic malaise?

    The facts were not random. An increase in the demand for housing is not going to reduce the cost of housing. The apologists for the housing market during the boom were always pointing to the future demographics in Ireland, mainly an extrapolation of immigration trends, to justify the continued increase in prices.

    Immigration is not really a universal social good, like the curates egg it is good in parts.


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    #45
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    asdasd wrote: »
    Immigration is not really a universal social good, like the curates egg it is good in parts.
    Maybe, but that's not really the point. Blaming the property bubble on immigration is more than a touch fallacious; jobs were created, immigrants filled them. We could have invested our cheap credit elsewhere and created jobs in other sectors, but we chose not to.


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    #46
    PopeBuckfastXVI
    Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    asdasd wrote: »
    The facts were not random. An increase in the demand for housing is not going to reduce the cost of housing. The apologists for the housing market during the boom were always pointing to the future demographics in Ireland, mainly an extrapolation of immigration trends, to justify the continued increase in prices.

    They sure did, they also used everything from a well appointed south facing window, to urban regeneration of 'up and coming' area's and the Luas being extended sometime around 20-never.

    Still, no one's blaming windows, deprived area's or the Luas for the bust.

    Immigration serviced a demand, and thank goodness, helped to keep wage inflation slightly down, ensuring that we will regain competitiveness faster than if we were in a position where we had more jobs than people to fill them.

    It's also the best safety valve we have, just like the Brits went home from the German building sites in the 70's the <insert random nationality here> workers will head off home now there's no more work in Ireland.

    There's not much can be done about unemployed construction workers though, we simply have more than we're ever likely to need again.

    Perhaps they can migrate to another EU country for a while, unless we manage to stamp out internal EU migration, like some around these parts have been calling for...


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    #47
    free to prosper
    Closed Accounts Posts: 106 ✭✭free to prosper


    djpbarry wrote: »
    Unless I am very much mistaken, the dispute you are referring to was resolved via the Labour Relations Commission?
    Prove it.
    Hmm. I think you’re referring to a quote attributable to one Conor “Google is not my friend” Lenihan?
    I ain’t goin’ there again.
    I see. So when you say we’ve been “hammered” by immigrants, what you mean is, a lot of non-Irish people now live in Ireland and you’re attempting to argue (by throwing together a few random “facts” and figures) that they are to blame for our current economic malaise?

    Eh no, all the Irish workers lost their jobs.
    Is this what you call - dispute solved?

    The Number of PPS numbers issued to New Assession States is public knowledge - it's been all over the papers.

    I'm not blaming NAS immigrants for causing overheating.

    Like Lenihan, I put cause of overheating on cheap credit from Euro Central bank and cheap labour labour from Eastern Europe post 2004.

    Who are to blame?
    Those gormless europhiles who told us to
    vote for Maastricht - the euro
    Vote for Nice - accession and mass immigration.

    The whole problem was compounded by silly tax and regulation system, but initial macro-economic cause was cheap credit and cheap labour.


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    #48
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    Immigration serviced a demand, and thank goodness, helped to keep wage inflation slightly down, ensuring that we will regain competitiveness faster than if we were in a position where we had more jobs than people to fill them.

    Well to be fair it only kept wage inflation down in the part of the economy which competed with immigrants.

    And you can see why that would piss them off.

    the civil service, and protected parts of the private sector were sitting pretty. Pro-immigration sentiment is highest in the richest suburbs.


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    #49
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    free to prosper wrote: »
    Apologies Scofflaw.
    Spanish people who knew very little about EU constitution - voted to pass EU constitution, not the treaty of Lisbon.

    They voted Yes in 2005.

    There current unemployment rate is currently 18 per cent.

    (remember its a yes side argument - vote Yes and everything will be just grand) Not proven by reality we see is it?

    Er, no. Let's go over this one step at a time:

    1. Spain voted Yes to the EU Constitution - in 2005
    2. The EU Constitution did not come into force - at all
    3. Four years later they have an unemployment rate of 18%

    Now, leaving aside the four year gap, there's another, even more massive hole in the argument - the EU Constitution didn't enter into force.

    Since the Constitution never entered into force, the Spanish vote had no practical outcome whatsoever. You're claiming that something with no practical outcome actually had a negative effect, and not just that, but the effect was mysteriously delayed by four years, during which the unemployment rate in Spain continued falling:

    Year|Unemployment
    2000 |16
    2001 |14
    2002 |11.3
    2003 |11.3
    2004 |11.3
    2005 |10.4
    2006 |9.2
    2007 |8.1
    2008 |7.6

    It's such a bizarre claim. It barely even merits the word 'claim', really - 'delusion' or 'fantasy' might be more appropriate.

    I hope you don't take offence at any of this - did you get it from somewhere else, and never really examine it?

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #50
    IIMII
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,366 ✭✭✭IIMII


    PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »
    All of that would be true without immigration, we would have just been paying brickies X euro an hour instead of Y. (X > Y)

    Capital appreciation and greed caused the boom/bust.

    The demand was serviced by immigration, but immigration was a symptom, not a cause.
    I am not blaming immigrants or immigration (they just did their jobs). I am blaming the lunacy of a policy of opening the doors of a country of 5m to hundreds of thousands on migrants to fuel a housing bubble. Regarding our Brickies, they might have been expensive but the couldn't have a built over a decade's housing stock in just a couple of years. The problem is we have burnt up demand for years to come, and to make matters worse recent migrants are heading off too leaving empty properties.


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    #51
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    asdasd wrote: »
    Well to be fair it only kept wage inflation down in the part of the economy which competed with immigrants.

    And you can see why that would piss them off.

    What's hilarious, though, is that the same people are probably now calling for deflation as a way out of the trouble without taking a pay cut. Given our reliance on imports even in domestic spending, deflation would be the same as a wage cut.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #52
    PopeBuckfastXVI
    Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    IIMII wrote: »
    I am not blaming immigrants or immigration (they just did their jobs). I am blaming the lunacy of a policy of opening the doors of a country of 5m to hundreds of thousands on migrants to fuel a housing bubble. Regarding our Brickies, they might have been expensive but the couldn't have a built over a decade's housing stock in just a couple of years. The problem is we have burnt up demand for years to come, and to make matters worse recent migrants are heading off too leaving empty properties.

    The demand was there with or without them. Restricting supply would have had what affect on prices do you think?


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    #53
    PopeBuckfastXVI
    Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    What's hilarious, though, is that the same people are probably now calling for deflation as a way out of the trouble without taking a pay cut. Given our reliance on imports even in domestic spending, deflation would be the same as a wage cut.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    If they aren't on the plane to Oz...


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    #54
    IIMII
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,366 ✭✭✭IIMII


    PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »
    The demand was there with or without them. Restricting supply would have had what affect on prices do you think?
    Oh jeez, I'm not talking about restricting supply through anti competive practices. I'm talking about cheap labour being used as an accelerant to build more houses than we should have.

    Don't forget that the construction workers inflated demand in the housing market too. There was a massive shortage of labour in the Irish economy until May 2004 - post May 2004, we had the opposite problem precisely because we had had so much zoned land and cheap credit. The government knew this and should have regulated migrants from the new EU states.


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    #55
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    The demand was there with or without them. Restricting supply would have had what affect on prices do you think?

    Well, yes. I dont know if we can blame immigration for the boom ( except for the perceived ideology of a continuous imflux of people coming in) but we can possibly blame the level of immigration for the bust. in other words the safety valve people are talking about works both ways - good for the reduction in labour force in a bust, bad for hosusing and negative equity.


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    #56
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    free to prosper wrote: »
    Eh no, all the Irish workers lost their jobs.
    Is this what you call - dispute solved?
    An agreement was reached between Irish Ferries and the unions representing the employees, so yes, I would say the dispute was resolved.
    free to prosper wrote: »
    The Number of PPS numbers issued to New Assession States is public knowledge - it's been all over the papers.
    Ok…

    I’m not sure what you’re responding to here?
    free to prosper wrote: »
    Like Lenihan, I put cause of overheating on cheap credit from Euro Central bank and cheap labour labour from Eastern Europe post 2004.
    Well he’s hardly going to point the finger at his own party, is he?

    What was stopping us from investing our cheap credit in something other than property?


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    #57
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    asdasd wrote: »
    Well, yes. I dont know if we can blame immigration for the boom ( except for the perceived ideology of a continuous imflux of people coming in) but we can possibly blame the level of immigration for the bust. in other words the safety valve people are talking about works both ways - good for the reduction in labour force in a bust, bad for hosusing and negative equity.

    Except that nobody has shown that accession state nationals contributed largely to the housing boom. It's being taken as 'common wisdom', something of which I am always deeply, deeply wary, and of which everyone should be as sceptical as possible. After all, 'common wisdom' two years ago was that the housing boom would, at worst, end in a 'soft landing'.

    Let's have some facts! Where is the evidence that accession state nationals were a major contributor to the housing bubble? What was the rate of house price rise before and after immigration started?


    sceptically,
    Scofflaw


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    #58
    free to prosper
    Closed Accounts Posts: 106 ✭✭free to prosper


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    Er, no. Let's go over this one step at a time:

    1. Spain voted Yes to the EU Constitution - in 2005
    2. The EU Constitution did not come into force - at all
    3. Four years later they have an unemployment rate of 18%

    Thanks Scofflaw.
    You should notice in my original argument that I did not state there was a causal relationship between the Spanish voting Yes and their high unemplyment rate.

    I simply stated one fact after another. They voted Yes, their umemployment rate is currently 18 per cent. Nothing more.

    As I said earlier, it is a constant Yes side argument, if we vote Yes to lisbon, our economy will be great again.
    I don't see any proof of that statement, do you?
    regards


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    #59
    PopeBuckfastXVI
    Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    IIMII wrote: »
    Oh jeez, I'm not talking about restricting supply through anti competive practices. I'm talking about cheap labour being used as an accelerant to build more houses than we should have.

    Don't forget that the construction workers inflated demand in the housing market too. There was a massive shortage of labour in the Irish economy until May 2004 - post May 2004, we had the opposite problem precisely because we had had so much zoned land and cheap credit. The government knew this and should have regulated migrants from the new EU states.

    Migration had a tiny net effect, in my opinion.

    Greed, availability of credit, low taxation, wage inflation, 'new paradigm' thinking, 'new paradigm' banking products, location location location, grand designs, the sunday independent, i'm an adult get me out of here, sherry fitzgerald, BoI, AIB, Anglo, Bertie Ahern, The FF Tent, Developer developers developers developers, the ladder, mammy and daddy, jealousy, spousal pressure, the neighbours getting rich, capital appreciation, skinny latté's, bmw, mercedes, range rover, well appointed desirable living, how much is your house worth?, tax breaks, get rich quick, portfolios, canny, savvy, bulgaria, spain, 'ryanair will be flying there soon', michelin stars, a piece of the pie.

    All of the above contributed to the bubble, which was inevitably followed by the boom. We were oversupplied and overvalued way before the migrants came, and we will be for a long time after they leave.

    You said it yourself, they justified the rise in prices due to 'demographics' and 'immigration', but it didn't save their asses, it never could, because it wasn't capable of having that much of an affect.

    Sure immigration was part of the crazy mix, but to blame it for the bubble, and the inevitable crash is just wrong.

    The cheap credit had a much bigger impact for sure, but then it was the Irish government, and the Irish people that decided what should be done with that credit.


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    #60
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    Where is the evidence that accession state nationals were a major contributor to the housing bubble? What was the rate of house price rise before and after immigration started?

    Umm, I said they didnt, except for the perception that housing increases were due to immigration ( and other factors). The fact is we were building enough housing, about 100K a year, enough for 250 thousand new entrants into the market.

    The bust now, that has been exacerbated.


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    #61
    PopeBuckfastXVI
    Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    free to prosper wrote: »
    As I said earlier, it is a constant Yes side argument, if we vote Yes to lisbon, our economy will be great again.
    I don't see any proof of that statement, do you?
    regards

    If it's that common you should have no trouble coming up with a few quotes.


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