Racing Post Money Printing Thread - Mod note post 1572

mike65

Yeah but so what?

argosy2006

mike65 wrote: »

Yeah but so what?

Its coped and pasted from my bookies account, i backed it:D,

Golfing

argosy2006 wrote: »

Its coped and pasted from my bookies account, i backed it:D,

Nice winner. Well done.

Are you Segal in disguise?

argosy2006

Golfing wrote: »

Nice winner. Well done.

Are you Segal in disguise?

Fluke, though i did base it on time sliotar ran over 3m before, and what rest of field ran over 3m before, and he came up as winner on paper,
yea a crazy way to pick

Bluetonic

argosy2006 wrote: »

Its coped and pasted from my bookies account, i backed it:D,

Nobody cares.

Why bother to aftertime?

POINTBREAK

Sun 17th January Saturday and Sunday only
Pricewise Extra
6 losers
1 winners
Present Sequence 00100F/3F013-04
Profit/Loss@SP +0.5
Profit/Loss@AdvisedPrice +2
=======================================
Dec Profit/Loss@SP.............+7
Nov Profit/Loss@SP............. - 5
Oct Profit/Loss@SP............. +11
========================================================
The overall picture this month
PWE Mon/Fri -2.88at SP
PWE Tom Segal +0.5
Price Column +4
==================================
Tom Segal Pricewise Column includes weekday tips
6 losers (TS)
3 winners (7/2-7/2)(5/1-9/2) 2/1
Present Sequence 12122230320021012/110000001.......16 placed from 24 tips!
Profit/Loss@SP +4
[EMAIL="Profit/Loss@AdvisedPrice+5"]Profit/Loss@AdvisedPrice[/email]+5

---

Dec Profit/Loss @ SP+ 12.25
Nov...Profit/Loss @ SP -16.4
Oct...Profit/Loss @ SP -7.5

---

Segal All 2010 Sequence 311F00100003-0014

Seanohea

Roman Conquest

2.30 Fakenham

1pt win at 6-1 generally

Seanohea

Cherry Flora

2.40 Plumpton

1pt win at 15-2 with Sportingbet, 7-1 generally

Seanohea

Both from Andrew Barr today

POINTBREAK

Seanohea wrote: »

Cherry Flora...................easy to back at 7.4 on Betfair drifted to 11/1 with the bookies stuffed
2.40 Plumpton

1pt win at 15-2 with Sportingbet, 7-1 generally
Roman Conquest..............easy to back around 6.6 on Betfair.............. 11/2 Fell .......
2.30 Fakenham

1pt win at 6-1 generally

Both returning from long lay offs. I dont think heavy ground will help Cherry ,finished last on heavy previous run. Both are mystery picks to me.

......................

POINTBREAK

MONDAY 18th JANUARY PRICEWISE EXTRA
Monday - Friday
11 losers
3 Winners
Andrew Barr 1-7 SEQ 30132020120000F0 5/2-9/4
Mel Collier 0 (2 Wins from last 33 bets)
Matt Williams 1-1..... 01 (3/1-5/2).......3.7 bsp
ames Pyman 1-1 (0/30*)
Profit at advised Stakes PLUS -3.88
Profit at SP..................PLUS -4.08
Present Sequence0000000000/011200000031/F0(6 wins 57 losers)
Dec Profit/Loss@SP .................Minus -21
NOV Profit/Loss@SP ................Minus -13
OCT Profit/Loss@SP .................Plus +28.5
SEPT Profit/Loss@SP ................Minus - 1.5* incl Segal PWE
AUG Profit/Loss@SP .................Plus +26.5* incl Segal

candlegrease

any ideas?

Seanohea

Moonstreaker

2.00 Southwell

1pt win at 7-2 with William Hill (100-30 generally)

POINTBREAK

Seanohea wrote: »

Moonstreaker

2.00 Southwell

1pt win at 7-2 with William Hill (100-30 generally)

Dosen't look like a drifter at the minute as the backers outnumber the layers by about 2/1.
It could still drift though.
12k on the lay side now and only 3k on the bet side

Price holds up, have to back it.......... good luck.

mike65

Gifted Leader on the line.

POINTBREAK

This is becoming seriously bad. A strike rate of 6 from 64 is bad enough, but add to that the short prices being selected and it will take a lot of winners to get a decent profit.
TUESDAY 18th JANUARY PRICEWISE EXTRA
Monday - Friday
12 losers
3 Winners
Andrew Barr 1-8 SEQ 30132020120000F02 5/2-9/4
Mel Collier 0 (2 Wins from last 33 bets)
Matt Williams 1-1..... 01 (3/1-5/2).......3.7 bsp
ames Pyman 1-1 (0/30*)
Profit at advised Stakes PLUS -4.88
Profit at SP..................PLUS -5.08
Present Sequence0000000000/011200000031/F02(6 wins 58 losers)
Dec Profit/Loss@SP .................Minus -21
NOV Profit/Loss@SP ................Minus -13
OCT Profit/Loss@SP .................Plus +28.5
SEPT Profit/Loss@SP ................Minus - 1.5* incl Segal PWE
AUG Profit/Loss@SP .................Plus +26.5* incl Segal

POINTBREAK

mike65 wrote: »

Gifted Leader on the line.

Funnily enough Gifted Leader was well supported against the Pricewise Horse. It was 6/1 and 7/1 this morning and returned at 7/2.
This could be another trend worth investigation, since there must be a reasonably valid theory that the market is already being moved by Pricewise, and for something to be able to also move the same market must mean its a strong fancy...... ?
Any ideas?

mike65

Some logic in that, they say follow the money (some trainers more than others of course) so if a PW horse is being out-backed by another at/near top of the market before the off that suggests connections/betting ring are confident.

POINTBREAK

mike65 wrote: »

Some logic in that, they say follow the money (some trainers more than others of course) so if a PW horse is being out-backed by another at/near top of the market before the off that suggests connections/betting ring are confident.

Thats the track I was on Mike. The problem is it all seems to happen fairly late on and identifying the right one is tough enough sometimes.I did a few of them as a saver bet the last 2 weeks or so and got a couple of winners and one very unlucky loser.
I cant decide on how to measure the support for a danger horse. If it is the main other mover in the race on the bookie prices, seems a sensible enough system..... or if its the second highest moneywise matched on Betfair maybe..... spose we should keep an eye on it.

Seanohea

6 out 64 is pretty bad, thankfully I only back them seriously at the weekend.
I've lost faith in Andrew Barr, he must have been doing way more days last winter to get the winners that he got.
I can't wait for the summer when tom gets back tipping on the flat again

POINTBREAK

Seanohea wrote: »

6 out 64 is pretty bad, thankfully I only back them seriously at the weekend.
I've lost faith in Andrew Barr, he must have been doing way more days last winter to get the winners that he got.
I can't wait for the summer when tom gets back tipping on the flat again

I am finished with Barr as well. Collier I gave up on a long time ago. That only leaves Matt Williams and any stand in that comes along. But even then the price must hold and from recent observations I will have to be extremely wary if another horse is supported against any Pricewise selection.
Its a strange time of year though with horses coming back after a weather break and the tipsters being restricted to all weather racing.
I have to admit though the logic of tipping something coming back after a year off when the trainer hasn't been able to get fast work into any of her horses escapes me. Segal was half asleep with that one.

POINTBREAK

Heres the results of the last 8 races where Pricewise Horses were Tipped.
Because I have gone back to Friday the only info from the Racing Post given
is the price the winner opened on course and the SP. I dont think I have missed any other horse backed
in these races but if you find any let me know.........
1 Gifted Leader 7/1 -7/2 beats Pricewise Selection
only one backed
........................................................................
2 Evella 15/2-11/2 beats Pricewise Selection
In the same race the fav was backed 7/4 -11/10 lost
........................................................................
3 Massasoit 5/4- 10/11 beats Pricewise Selection
only one backed
........................................................................
4 The Sliothar 6/1-4/1 beats Pricewise Selection
In the same race Ballydub was backed 11/1 -17/2 beat
........................................................................
5 3 or 4 supported in this race
The winner was backed a bit from 12/1 to 10/1
........................................................................
6 Saddlers Storm 11/8-4/5 beats Pricewise Selection
also supported Royal Dip 10/1 to 6/1 3rd.
.........................................................................
7 3 Supported
Michael Flips 12/1 -9/1 beats Pricewise Selection
Duc De Ren 13/2-9/2 2nd
Shamari 14/1-11/1 fell
........................................................................
8 Fistral Beach 11/4-9/4 beats Pricewise Selection
Heathcote 12/1-10/1 2nd
Capt Americo 8/1- 6/1 fell
........................................................................
I understand you could say if I go through any 10 races I will get much the same results,
but the significance in these races is the volume of money being bet on the pricewise selection
and horses backed against the tip appear to be dominating the results.

essexman

So essentially you are hypothesising that the pricewise selection would be a biigger price within the book had it not been tipped and therefore others may be at too big a price and possible value. Furthermore, the steamers must have a greater chance of winning than your average steamer because it is steaming against pricewise. And it may settle at a bigger SP than it might have done and is therefore possible value. An interesting theory and one that is worth keeping an eye on.

POINTBREAK

Thanks Essex

essexman wrote: »

So essentially you are hypothesising that the pricewise selection would be a biigger price within the book had it not been tipped I think that is certain.

and therefore others may be at too big a price and possible value.
Yes but a different subject in some ways.

Furthermore, the steamers must have a greater chance of winning than your average steamer because it is steaming against pricewise. And it may settle at a bigger SP than it might have done and is therefore possible value. An interesting theory and one that is worth keeping an eye on
Yes thats the basis of the hypothesis, and it is only an idea at the minute and not a theory as such. More data will throw a bit of light on the subject and you never know ,we could come up with some sort of formula for more winners. So far the trend with drifters is holding up, but that just gets us less losers.

.

..........................................

POINTBREAK

Ladbrokes movers..........not incl night racing
OUTCOME EVENT AND MARKETBOOKIELONGESTCURRENT% MOVE
Minouchka1:40 Newcastle, WinLadbrokes20/114/1 30%
Rubi Light2:00 Punchestown, WinLadbrokes9/47/4 22%
Basra2:30 Lingfield, WinLadbrokes4/13/1 25%
Confidentiality2:30 Lingfield, WinLadbrokes4/13/1 25%
Hurakan2:30 Lingfield, WinLadbrokes11/16/1 45%
Mister Green2:30 Lingfield, WinLadbrokes20/19/1 55%
Pittoni2:35 Punchestown, WinLadbrokesEvs8/11 27%
Mister Pete2:50 Newcastle, WinLadbrokes6/14/1 33%
Turtle Spirit2:50 Newcastle, WinLadbrokes9/24/1 11%
Lastoftheleaders3:10 Punchestown, WinLadbrokes6/15/1 17%
The Fabricator3:25 Newcastle, WinLadbrokes9/17/1 22%
Even Bolder3:40 Lingfield, WinLadbrokes5/14/1 20%
Big Shu4:15 Punchestown, WinLadbrokes6/15/1 17%
Green Grenello4:15 Punchestown, WinLadbrokes7/29/4 36%
Holyman Of War4:15 Punchestown, WinLadbrokes5/14/1 20%

mike65

No one cares what the picks are anymore!

I just looked at the RP page and the best backed horse is Twist Magic who isn't running until the Weekend!

yaaaboy

mike65 wrote: »

No one cares what the picks are anymore!

HAHAHAHA thats hilarious mike!

You would want to be brain dead altogether to still be backing the midweek boys after 64 losers

POINTBREAK

mike65 wrote: »

No one cares what the picks are anymore!

I just looked at the RP page and the best backed horse is Twist Magic who isn't running until the Weekend!

Its hard to tell with Mels tips. There can't be that many survivers left to move the market.

Mister Pete 2-50 maybe one.

Seanohea

The Fabricator

3.25 Newcastle

1pt win at 10-1 generally

yaaaboy

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Mister Pete 2-50 maybe one.

Just checked the site, he has 2 tips up for today..its easy to find them, just see which 2 horses drift wildly in the market before the off and then pull up a furlong or 2 out!

Whats the bet he gets a double now...