The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

sryanbruen

Long period of spotless activity (bar one tiny little sunspot that BLIZZARD7 highlighted ) since the end of February. March 2017 had a long run of spotless days too before a large spike at the beginning of April.

https://twitter.com/solweather/status/974978678332448768

sryanbruen

Another small sunspot appearing on the sun.

https://twitter.com/solweather/status/975341054076448768

sryanbruen

Fun fact, 1888 is a year of solar cycle 12 which was a very similar solar cycle in progression to the current one solar cycle 24 and it encompassed some very cold Winters like 1878/1879 (also the coldest year on record - 1879) and 1890/91 at the end of it with the coldest December on record at that time for the CET and still beats 2010 at only 0.1c lower than it.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_12

https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/976055439891881985?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefault%26f%3Dgavsweathervids1%26t_u%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.gavsweathervids.com%252Fcomments-3.php%26t_d%3DThird%2520Chat%2520And%2520Discussion%2520Thread%2520For%2520GWV%26t_t%3DThird%2520Chat%2520And%2520Discussion%2520Thread%2520For%2520GWV%26s_o%3Ddefault%23version%3D3e91f895da97667a42583677a655c093

BLIZZARD7

Sun is blank again -

Current Stretch: 3 days
2018 total: 44 days (54%)

BLIZZARD7

Current Stretch: 4 days
2018 total: 45 days (55%)

Akrasia

Interesting interview with Mike Lockwood, an atmospheric physicist on the implications of the solar cycle on global and regional weather and climate.

bazlers

Blizzard,
Another spotless day, somehow I think it would be easier to count the sunspots this year😉

Mr Bumble

Akrasia wrote: »

Interesting interview with Mike Lockwood, an atmospheric physicist on the implications of the solar cycle on global and regional weather and climate.

I'm confused. He says that the impact of the sun on global climate is nowhere near as big as that of "greenhouse gases" in general but that the sun's activity can impact on local weather patterns ("North America and Europe).

This winter, Japan, Korea, Moscow, Paris and many parts of North America have seen record or near record snowfall levels. We've had a very snowy winter (so far!).
Many parts of North Africa have had unusual amounts of snowfall. The Sahara has had lying snow at sea level three times in 2018. It's been dumping down across the the Middle East and it snowed heavily at low altitudes in Taiwan.
That seems like an awful lot of local weather! Most of the Northern Hemisphere.
Is that not a global influence and a significant one? If nothing else, this prolonged winter is going to have a very sigificant impact on the growing season for farmers all across the Northern Hemisphere.

Mr Bumble

Mr Bumble wrote: »

I'm confused. He says that the impact of the sun on global climate is nowhere near as big as that of "greenhouse gases" in general but that the sun's activity can impact on local weather patterns ("North America and Europe).

This winter, Japan, Korea, Moscow, Paris and many parts of North America have seen record or near record snowfall levels. We've had a very snowy winter (so far!).
Many parts of North Africa have had unusual amounts of snowfall. The Sahara has had lying snow at sea level three times in 2018. It's been dumping down across the the Middle East and it snowed heavily at low altitudes in Taiwan.
That seems like an awful lot of local weather! Most of the Northern Hemisphere.
Is that not a global influence and a significant one? If nothing else, this prolonged winter is going to have a very sigificant impact on the growing season for farmers all across the Northern Hemisphere.

I think his definition of local weather is correct in the sense that each of these areas of weather cange only affect those localities, globally they cancel each other out.

BLIZZARD7

A week blank now - that % is gradually increasing

Current Stretch: 7 days
2018 total: 48 days (56%)

sryanbruen

Here's the chart of comparison to previous years with what BLIZZARD7 posted for 2018.

Maunderevents

I have been forecasting these events since 2010 I made a prediction most parts would not see any snow events till around winter 2017-18.
This winter is only a transition winter I fully expect worse ahead maunder not dalton repeat in years ahead,also lots more east flows and polar jet coming a lot more south than normal.

BLIZZARD7

10 days on the blink now -

Current Stretch: 10 days
2018 total: 51 days (57%)

Solar flux : 69

PokeHerKing

Can anyone confirm if 2008 had 260 spotless days also? Google is telling me that but not sure it's correct.

BLIZZARD7

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Can anyone confirm if 2008 had 260 spotless days also? Google is telling me that but not sure it's correct.

266 according to this link -

http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/spotlessdays.htm



Obviously 2009 should be up there on that graph now too ^

sryanbruen

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Can anyone confirm if 2008 had 260 spotless days also? Google is telling me that but not sure it's correct.

According to spaceweather.com, 2008 had 266 spotless days (73%).

EDIT: BLIZZARD7 got here first .

PokeHerKing

Could either of you confirm what winter 08 was like please? I wasnt living in Ireland that year.

sryanbruen

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Could either of you confirm what winter 08 was like please? I wasnt living in Ireland that year.

Are you referring to 2007/08? Or 2008/09?

PokeHerKing

sryanbruen wrote:

Are you referring to 2007/08? Or 2008/09?

I was thinking more 08/09 but 07/08 would be great also. Just trying to figure out how far away we are from another 09/10!ðŸ˜

sryanbruen

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I was thinking more 08/09 but 07/08 would be great also. Just trying to figure out how far away we are from another 09/10!ðŸ˜

2007/08 was a bit of a teaser Winter. It was mild with some very unsettled periods including one of the wettest Januaries on record and some very high waves on December 8th/9th. However, mid-December brought a very anticyclonic period of weather that was unusually long and quiet, mid-February was similar too. The latter was very frosty at times. The 3rd/4th January brought a brief easterly which brought some heavy snowfall to parts of the north and east. The southeast was in the Anglesey shadow though. You can find some sources to these snowfalls in the links below. February 2008 had a polar vortex displacement SSW event. This in turn led to an intensified jet stream for March 2008 bringing us some very stormy conditions for the time of year albeit not that warm, in fact, quite cold. March 2008 brought some notable snowfalls including a White Easter - Easter Sunday fell on 23 March. The cold and snow was changeable though in between rather close to average or mildish periods which made March 2008 not that cold overall in terms of the mean temperatures. This had continued into April 2008 bringing some very notable late season snowfalls especially to the east, again see below. It ended by May 2008 though when a large amount of parts had their warmest May on record. The season was packed full of teasers for cold and what was to come including very low solar activity and an easterly QBO. The solar activity of 2007/08 was very comparable to that of 2017/18.

2008/09 was our first colder than normal Winter since 2000/01 at the time. It started off with an October that was the coldest for 4 years then. The month produced some highly unusual early snowfalls at the end of the month for quite a wide area over the UK and Ireland even as far south as London. Much of October 2008 was mild and very unsettled - though very sunny too. November was dry and rather mild throughout bar the very end when some snowfalls started to occur in localised parts and temperatures plunged. Dublin Airport had its coldest November day on record since its records began in 1941 on the 29th when it recorded a maximum of only 0.7c - this would be beaten in 2010. Minimum temperatures were getting down to -5c and with a lot of cloud too for many (though not all) including Dublin Airport making it feel very raw. December was a cold month, the coldest December since 1996, but not exceptionally so though still significant in terms of frost. The month had many frosts, starting off rather cold and ended in a very cold spell (not necessarily a freeze though) with a mild spell mixed in between. There were some scattered snow showers through December but nothing extreme. The main story of December was cold, dry and sunny. The latter cold spell would continue into the first week of January 2009 with some very cold temperatures recorded widely in severe frosts. Daytime temperatures generally in the low single figures for multiple days but dry and sunny. This was the coldest spell of weather since the end of December 2000. After this spell ended on the 10th, a very unsettled spell took place with changeable air masses but never really very mild. Plenty of heavy rain especially for the southwest with a storm on the 17th. On the 30th, very heavy rain pushed into Ireland with Cork having up to 50mm on this day as it lingered into the 31st. This was lingering because it was coming up against a Scandinavian block to the east which would then turn the winds into the east on 1st February bringing snowfalls initially to the east of the UK but reaching Ireland on the 2nd and especially into the 3rd. Some very heavy snowfalls in parts of the east on the 3rd. Dublin Airport had a daily rainfall of 29mm on February 3rd but I think this all fell as snow. Elsewhere, it was just cold and sunny. Temperatures struggled in the low single figures again like early January. This continued on for a week but snowfalls became less and less over time bar some heavy on the 5th/6th and the 8th. By the 11th, high pressure had ridged in across us bringing sunny but cold and dry weather. The high ridged to the south with weak low to the north and west bringing in a southwesterly flow for the rest of February making it all seem like a distant memory. This in fact made February 2009 a close to average month overall in terms of mean temperatures despite the notable spell at the beginning which whilst not as significant for Ireland, the UK had their most severe snowy spell since 1991. Spring 2009 was mild throughout generally bar one quick snow interval on March 8th. The Winter was very strange in that NAO and AO were both positive as well as a westerly QBO but the very very low solar activity more than helped to compensate for blocking to occur helping it to be a cold
Winter - the first of three consecutive to come.

2009-10 was a rare perfect combination of a central based El Nino (El Nino Modoki), very low solar activity, very negative NAO, very negative AO, negative PDO etc. It's not all down to solar activity.

http://www.peterduncanson.net/snow/snow00.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2009_Great_Britain_and_Ireland_snowfall

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055408574

PokeHerKing

Cheers Sryanbruen! So winter 19/20 is the big one then Yeah?😀

sryanbruen

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Cheers Sryanbruen! So winter 19/20 is the big one then Yeah?😀

I do personally think 2019/20 holds the best prospects currently for severe cold but with our weather you never know like maybe 2018/19 will be the one.

Maunderevents

This winter is a transition winter
So next winter could be a big one and one after that.
Even in maunder conditions we will have mild winters, winters ahead will be huge I feel stuff we have never seen.
Long east flows and lots of blocking

Artane2002

Maunderevents wrote: »

This winter is a transition winter
So next winter could be a big one and one after that.
Even in maunder conditions we will have mild winters, winters ahead will be huge I feel stuff we have never seen.
Long east flows and lots of blocking

Let's hope we see something similar to the initial beast except more prolonged and at an even better time of year like mid January.

A spot has been spotted! :P

I think we've reached that moment in time when instead of counting spotless days, we start to count spotty days.

Elmer Blooker

Deleted User wrote: »

A spot has been spotted! :P

I think we've reached that moment in time when instead of counting spotless days, we start to count spotty days.

...... and blank again. That didn't last long!
http://www.spaceweather.com/

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/solweather/status/981139260421029889

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

Here's the chart of comparison to previous years with what BLIZZARD7 posted for 2018.

Now, 58 spotless days (60%).

sryanbruen

59 spotless days (60%)

http://www.spaceweather.com/

sryanbruen

61 spotless days (61%)

https://twitter.com/solweather/status/983675977338204160

http://www.spaceweather.com/