The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

2015 is on track to smash the global average temperature record (that record was set in 2014)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-06-18/this-year-is-headed-for-the-hottest-on-record-by-a-long-shot

Anyone who thinks that global warming isn't happening, sorry, but you're completely and utterly wrong.

It's an El Nino year as well, this usually bumps up the temperatures in the Pacific ocean, which is a huge area that can skew the figures if you want to get a record "global" high.

Akrasia

Deleted User wrote: »

It's an El Nino year as well, this usually bumps up the temperatures in the Pacific ocean, which is a huge area that can skew the figures if you want to get a record "global" high.

Yeah, El Nino events tend to bump up the average temperature, but El Ninos have been happening for as long as we have been paying attention. The El Nino effect combined with global warming results in record high global average temperatures.

It's also likely that Global warming will increase the frequency of El Nino events (According to climate models)
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n2/full/nclimate2100.html

Godge

Akrasia wrote: »

2015 is on track to smash the global average temperature record (that record was set in 2014)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-06-18/this-year-is-headed-for-the-hottest-on-record-by-a-long-shot

Anyone who thinks that global warming isn't happening, sorry, but you're completely and utterly wrong.

I don't think anyone is denying global warming on this thread.

However, three points are worthy of thought in the context that the British Isles are the warmest countries at their latitude.

(1) Climate change may result in the British Isles losing that advantage due to changing ocean currents and atmospheric circulations. Paradoxically, while the rest of the earth is warming, the British Isles could be cooler in winter.

(2) Arctic ice changes especially large-scale melting caused by global warming could mean cooler Atlantic ocean temperatures around the British Isles

(3) There is a tentative link between events like the Maunder minimum and colder winters in the Northern hemisphere.

Paradoxically, because of these localised effects, we could see an Earth with average global temperatures rising (even if temporarily the growth slows down by less activity from the Sun) but with much colder winters in the British Isles.

Supercell

Godge wrote: »

I don't think anyone is denying global warming on this thread.

However, three points are worthy of thought in the context that the British Isles are the warmest countries at their latitude.

(1) Climate change may result in the British Isles losing that advantage due to changing ocean currents and atmospheric circulations. Paradoxically, while the rest of the earth is warming, the British Isles could be cooler in winter.

(2) Arctic ice changes especially large-scale melting caused by global warming could mean cooler Atlantic ocean temperatures around the British Isles

(3) There is a tentative link between events like the Maunder minimum and colder winters in the Northern hemisphere.

Paradoxically, because of these localised effects, we could see an Earth with average global temperatures rising (even if temporarily the growth slows down by less activity from the Sun) but with much colder winters in the British Isles.

Indeed, and interestingly, that appears to be exactly what that same article shows for the global temperatures last month, note the blue area in the north atlantic!

Godge

Supercell wrote: »

Indeed, and interestingly, that appears to be exactly what that same article shows for the global temperatures last month, note the blue area in the north atlantic!

Arctic ice melted very fast at the start of the melting season this year. This would explain cooler seas around Iceland and below.

Godge

Godge wrote: »

Arctic ice melted very fast at the start of the melting season this year. This would explain cooler seas around Iceland and below.

Not really, the coldest area on that map (relative to average) is nowhere near the ice cap. More importantly is the fact that there have been much warmer temperatures in other areas of the Arctic that have accelerated this years melt.

Godge

Deleted User wrote: »

Not really, the coldest area on that map (relative to average) is nowhere near the ice cap. More importantly is the fact that there have been much warmer temperatures in other areas of the Arctic that have accelerated this years melt.

Fresher water cooled by melting ice mixed with ocean currents leads to cooler North Atlantic seas.

Godge

Godge wrote: »

Fresher water cooled by melting ice mixed with ocean currents leads to cooler North Atlantic seas.

Quite possibly, but I think that it's more to do with a weakening Gulf stream that is not pushing as much warm water north from the Caribbean as usual.
It appears that the melt pattern (by area) this year is similar to last year, except that the ice around north Alaska is melting faster than eastern Greenland.

As we're about 2/3rds of the way through solar cycle 24, activity is still relatively high, so it may be too early to say that it's due to weak solar activity, but it may be enough to cause the jetstream to track further south than usual.

Akrasia

Deleted User wrote: »

Quite possibly, but I think that it's more to do with a weakening Gulf stream that is not pushing as much warm water north from the Caribbean as usual.

Yeah, that's what this paper says

http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2554.epdf?referrer_access_token=hNkSjLzg0WsXzaD2vbh1pNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NAhBvJD3qQKAFJ5ZYnRB2DfVKqstvbeSrKxpKUhj2SxF7BcI_loegLGlYCV27ok_Njli4FpCNFd520NkNH-gNy_R7BHOTlk8WVlOM-EydqJ_fXB_3x-E3hIshOeW5WWHqcaPgYVH6Ha2paJACMrQS0vL1bzMOuRrJUW7F2fIb6zTOfarfleGahqDJs4nRADLaiLU5g6rQIKxir0Igbm9o6CWHumkVB6-NveR4QQcF04yFUDA2eESQkZFHTbg4BEjL4NRYUqzDNwfzQCuzM7uRD_YVpeh72TuO4azy_3UChHg%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com

Technically, both points of view are correct, the slowdown of the gulf stream is related to the melting of the glaciers on greenland and the arctic, but it's not directly cooling the water, it's changing the salinity of the water and disrupting the conveyor belt that drives the gulf stream.

Godge

Akrasia wrote: »

Yeah, that's what this paper says

http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2554.epdf?referrer_access_token=hNkSjLzg0WsXzaD2vbh1pNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NAhBvJD3qQKAFJ5ZYnRB2DfVKqstvbeSrKxpKUhj2SxF7BcI_loegLGlYCV27ok_Njli4FpCNFd520NkNH-gNy_R7BHOTlk8WVlOM-EydqJ_fXB_3x-E3hIshOeW5WWHqcaPgYVH6Ha2paJACMrQS0vL1bzMOuRrJUW7F2fIb6zTOfarfleGahqDJs4nRADLaiLU5g6rQIKxir0Igbm9o6CWHumkVB6-NveR4QQcF04yFUDA2eESQkZFHTbg4BEjL4NRYUqzDNwfzQCuzM7uRD_YVpeh72TuO4azy_3UChHg%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com

Technically, both points of view are correct, the slowdown of the gulf stream is related to the melting of the glaciers on greenland and the arctic, but it's not directly cooling the water, it's changing the salinity of the water and disrupting the conveyor belt that drives the gulf stream.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.5.28.2015.gif

Whatever it is, the Atlantic to the west/south-west of Ireland remains below average temperature, despite a lot of above-average temperatures globally.

Oneiric 3

Deleted User wrote: »

Quite possibly, but I think that it's more to do with a weakening Gulf stream that is not pushing as much warm water north from the Caribbean as usual.

Or possibly the first hints that the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation is about to switch.

http://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2015/05/28-ocean-circulation-study.page

I would theorise that the unusual negative anomally in the N Atlantic may have possibly been enhanced by the intensity of cold air which spilled out from the N American continent over that region over recent winters.

Schadenfreudia

Ice age seems to be coming to Dublin at least, based on DA station readings!

After a colder than average December the difference from average temperature of the first six months of 2015:

January -0.6C (0.6C below the 30-year average)
Feb -1.3
March -1.0
April - 0.9
May - 1.3
June - 1.3 (up to yesterday - despite being very dry and sunny).

wildefalcon

More to come! Time to start stocking up on the turf and coal.


http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/mini-ice-age-coming-in-next-fifteen-years-new-model-of-the-suns-cycle-shows-10382400.html

I think that I'll wait until the next minimum ends before calling it.

Schadenfreudia

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Ice age seems to be coming to Dublin at least, based on DA station readings!

After a colder than average December the difference from average temperature of the first six months of 2015:

January -0.6C (0.6C below the 30-year average)
Feb -1.3
March -1.0
April - 0.9
May - 1.3
June - 1.3 (up to yesterday - despite being very dry and sunny).

And July is currently running at -0.8C!

That would make it eight months in a row below the 30-year average :eek:

Supercell

Thats not really like with like though due to the new colder location. Pheonix park might give a more accurate picture.
FWIW YTD I am trending -0.2 below normal,.

Schadenfreudia

Supercell wrote: »

Thats not really like with like though due to the new colder location. Pheonix park might give a more accurate picture.
FWIW YTD I am trending -0.2 below normal,.

True, but the other Dub stations are also showing below average the past 8 months, though not to the same degree ('scuse pun)

Just a quick update as we're progressing towards the end of cycle 24, the fist real period of spotless sun has arrived.

http://spaceweather.com/
Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 05 Jun 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 2 days
2016 total: 2 days (1%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 05 Jun 2016

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/06/30/the-sun-is-as-blank-as-a-billiard-ball-solar-activity-dwindling-to-lows-not-seen-in-200-years/
The sun is as blank as a billiard ball, solar activity dwindling to lows not seen in 200 years
Guest Blogger / 4 hours ago June 30, 2016

Guest essay by David Archibald

The latest image from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) shows our sun as a blank canvas. No sunspots. Solar cycle 24 activity continues to be lowest in nearly 200 years

Looks like this period of minimal sunspot activity is lasting longer than expected. We're still several years from the actual end of cycle 24.

hotwhiskey

Sunspot activity is abnormally low the lowest in years.

''Low solar activity
Research and empirical observations have shown that low solar activity tends to be correlated with frequent high-latitude atmospheric blocking patterns and we are now experiencing one of the weakest solar cycles (#24) in more than a century. Furthermore, this already weak solar cycle is headed rapidly towards the next solar minimum - usually the least active time in a given cycle. In fact, the last solar minimum from 2007-to-2009 registered the quietest period in at least a century.''

So the next solar minimum phase is expected to take place around 2019 or 2020. So we are on 24 cycle since records began in 1755 this quiet phase is the weakest since 1906..


Solar cycle 24 is the weakest in more than a century and it is headed towards the next solar minimum suggesting even lower activity; courtesy NASA

pedigree 6

There's been a big drop in the 10.7cm Radio Flux reading in the past few weeks.
Even a month ago it was in the 90's range. Now for the past few weeks it's been stuck in the 70's. Even today it's the lowest so far since 2010, 74.

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 74 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 08 Nov 2016

http://spaceweather.com/

pedigree 6

This is an interesting piece from http://spaceweather.com/

SUNSPOT CYCLE AT LOWEST LEVEL IN 5 YEARS: The sun has looked remarkably blank lately, with few dark cores interrupting the featureless solar disk.  This is a sign that Solar Minimum is coming.  Indeed, sunspot counts have just reached their lowest level since 2011. With respect to the sunspot cycle, you are here:



The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and forth between periods of high and low sunspot number every 11 years. These data from NOAA show that the pendulum is swinging toward low sunspot numbers even faster than expected. (The red line is the forecast; black dots are actual measurements.). Given the current progression, forecasters expect the cycle to bottom out with a deep Solar Minimum in 2019-2020.
Solar Minimum is widely misunderstood.  Many people think it brings a period of dull quiet. In fact, space weather changes in interesting ways. For instance, as the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun decreases, the upper atmosphere of Earth cools and collapses. This allows space junk to accumulate around our planet. Also, the heliosphere shrinks, bringing interstellar space closer to Earth; galactic cosmic rays penetrate the inner solar system and our atmosphere with relative ease. (More on this below.) Meanwhile, geomagnetic storms and auroras will continue--caused mainly by solar wind streams instead of CMEs. Indeed, Solar Minimum is coming, but it won't be dull.

LAYMAN terms lads?? what are we looking at here?? white Xmas???

Wanderer78

Do we have any idea what causes the 11 year cycle?

pedigree 6

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Do we have any idea what causes the 11 year cycle?

I think it's the polarity of the poles changing roughly every 11 years (some cycles longer, others shorter). More here...

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/solarcycle-primer.html

rusty cole

rusty cole wrote: »

LAYMAN terms lads?? what are we looking at here?? white Xmas???

Probably a weakening in the magnetic field around the earth, this in turn could weaken the protection from radiation that could cause an increase in skin cancer in the future amongst other things.

We may see a few years of colder weather in this part of the world as the weather patterns that bring the warm weather north to us weaken and stay south.

pedigree 6

Deleted User wrote: »

Probably a weakening in the magnetic field around the earth, this in turn could weaken the protection from radiation that could cause an increase in skin cancer in the future amongst other things.

We may see a few years of colder weather in this part of the world as the weather patterns that bring the warm weather north to us weaken and stay south.

Don't agree with the first part. The sun doesn't cause our magnetic field to weaken or strengthen. That is all from the earths own internal rotating core.
The sun might put the magnetic field under stress during a solar storm but our MF won't get weaker if ultra violet output from the sun declines a bit.
The only thing that you might be getting at with increased chance of cancer (maybe) is an increased chance of cosmic rays entering the earths lower atmosphere.

Loosely agree with the second part. As the winters of 09 and 10 showed us.

Yes the Earth does generate its own magnetic field, but the Sun's field can either enhance or oppose the Earth's field, depending on polarity and strength.

hotwhiskey

This week the sun was hitting its lowest level of solar activity since 2011 (Nov. 14-18, 2016) as it gradually marches towards solar minimum. This activity is usually measured by sunspot count and over the past several days the sun has been almost spotless. The sun has a pendulum-like pattern of solar cycle of activity that extends over about an 11-year period. The last peak of activity was in early 2014. At this point in time, the sunspot numbers seem to be sliding downwards faster than expected, though the solar minimum level should not occur until 2021. No doubt more and larger sunspots will inevitably appear, but we'll just have to wait and see. Credit: Solar Dynamics Observatory, NASA.

pedigree 6

The Sun has gone spotless again today.
It looks like tomorrow could be the same.