The AIB Discussion Thread

Time Magazine

This thread is for the discussion of things AIB. Please post any questions/comments regarding AIB you have in this thread instead of making a new thread.

Thanks.

Villain

The Volume of AIB shares today is huge Volume of over 8 million comapred to 2.8 million in BOI and AIB are up 26%

That kind of trading has to be related to some kind of information doing the rounds, anyone here got any information?

ranger4

Villain wrote: »

The Volume of AIB shares today is huge Volume of over 8 million comapred to 2.8 million in BOI and AIB are up 26%

That kind of trading has to be related to some kind of information doing the rounds, anyone here got any information?

Investors seem to be weighing all the statements with regard to aib being in very good shape plus todays bounce with us financials has helped.

ntlbell

I was listening to newstalk earlier an economist from goodbody's (sorry I didn't catch the names) one was calming that it's pretty much irrelevant if AIB's shares stay where they are as long as the bank is solvent and can do buisness on a day to day basis

the other guy said if the shares stay the same the goverment will have to nationalise them in the coming weeks

what's the real affect if the price shares stay as low as they are now?

homer911

The volume today was ovr 50m shares traded!! Huge by recent standards.

There were positive noises from IFSRA, a quoted internal message from Eugene Sheehy to the staff and a statement from the government that amounted to no desire to nationalise the bank, but they would recapitalise. I think this last point particularly gave a stimulus to the market

Brian2850

46 million shares (Almost 7% of all shares) traded in AIB again today for the second day in a row. Presumably, while this sell off continues, the share price will remain under pressure. Is it reasonable to assume that there will be short term relief for the share price when this sell off slows?

Given the volume of shares traded, it is reasonable that many brokers are rating the bank as a sell. Considering the fall in the share price over the past 12 months, it seems odd to encourage a sell off unless brokers are convinced that nationalisation is imminent. Although I would acknowledge that this is certainly a possibility, it is by no means a certainty and I would have thought investors would have looked for more certainty before closing out of hugely loss making positions at 40-60c per share. Or am I missing something?

I can understand why none of the Irish banks are a buy at these levels because of the all the uncertainty that surrounds them but are they really a sell?

Gavin "shels"

Never bought shares, never even thought of buying shares before. But at 57c it's got me thinking. If I say buy €50 worth of shares now they could go back up to the price they were 2 years ago. I'd be in it for the long haul, and at 18 I think it good be a very good investment.

What happens if the government was to Nationalise AIB and I owned shares?

What do people think?

Time Magazine

Hi Gavin.

Welcome to the forum.

Round these here parts people are looking at investing, and potentially losing money. It's not like Politics or Soccer where people are just debating what they can't really influence, here they lose money if they make a mistake. Consequently some of the posters here are harsh/blunt, but for others' own good. Keep that in mind as you read this forum and as I go through your post. It's not an attack on you, it's doing our best to make sure you don't lose your own money. And it's important to do so. A few months ago there was a lad on here talking of borrowing €20,000 to invest in BoI at €6 a share. Needless to say he got a bit of stick... but it saved him €20,000.

Gavin shels wrote: »

Never bought shares, never even thought of buying shares before. But at 57c it's got me thinking.

I see what you're thinking. When I see that, I think "Jaysis, what's gone wrong?" What you're thinking can pretty much be translated to "I think everyone else is wrong." You may well be right, but it's something to consider.

€50

Unfortunately ou're going to have to go a good bit higher than that. Some places charge €40 to make a trade, etc.

If I say buy €50 worth of shares now they could go back up to the price they were 2 years ago.

They could, or they could go to zero. It's accepted that there was a housing bubble in Ireland, and that caused shares to be €18. They almost certainly won't go back there. Pretty much ever. Bubbles don't work that way. €18 is a historical price. It's best if you get it out of your head.

I'd be in it for the long haul, and at 18 I think it good be a very good investment.

For the long haul, AIB may well be a reasonable investment. Of course if they go to €18 you'd be making a 3000% return which is obviously fantastic. But the reason the price is so low right now is because there is so much uncertainty about what's going to happen. Dell have pulled out. What'll happen the global economy if there's another 9/11 type attack tomorrow to welcome Obama in? Then the recession will get worse, house prices will fall, more people will stop paying their mortgages and AIB's profits fall. Then yer f*cked.

What happens if the government was to Nationalise AIB and I owned shares?

If the government nationalise AIB expect nothing. You may get some compensation as some stupid government attempt to get votes, but don't bet on it.

These are the health warnings. You could end up losing everything you invest. You see that a company were worth €18, now worth 50c, and think they must go back. That's a little bit like betting Nottingham Forest will win the Champions League because they haven't won it since winning it back-to-back in 1980. That'd be a stupid bet.

I know AIB aren't Notts Forest, but you can see where I'm coming from. Don't look at the past when deciding if they're a good investment or not, look to the future. Will their profits increase over the next five years? That's looking pretty bleak. So why should the share price rise?

Now that's not to say AIB aren't going to come good. If you can afford to lose the cash, perhaps they're a good gamble. But that's what the average punter buying bank shares is doing now: gambling. It's not true "investing" as the posters on this forum see it, i.e. studying the market to see if you're willing to let a company put your money at risk. Know the risks and if you lose all your money don't say you weren't warned.

homer911

For anyone who is interested, RTE hosts the local broker reports here each day:

http://www.rte.ie/business/brokerreports.html

ranger4

Anyone day trading aib-boi ifso how are you getting on.

rugbyman

to Ranger 4

I bought 2,000 AIB at 41 cent a few days ago. Can bank profit of 392 euro today. But I intend to hold on. I am a big believer in taking profits but I feel that AIB is the safest (?) bank in Ireland.

Daveirl aked

Is AIB at 99c still a buy?

Dave did not indicate whether he thought they were or not. he just put the question to a poster whose reasoning he disagreed with.

I think yes. Davys notes yesterday indicated that their Polish bank alone was worth twice the parents market capitalisation.



Regards,Rugbyman

wyndham

GOVERNMENT TO SPEED UP BANKS MOVE? - The Irish Times reports that the Government is preparing to bring forward the recapitalisation of AIB and Bank of Ireland in a concerted effort to convince the markets neither will be nationalised.

The paper says the possibility that the weakest loans on the books of both banks will be transferred into the newly nationalised Anglo Irish Bank is also on the table.

AIB and Bank of Ireland were to be recapitalised before the end of March under the original Government plan. Following the collapse of their shares since the decision to take Anglo into public ownership last week, the Irish Times says Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan is now likely to release State money into the banks much sooner.

In line with the original terms of the plan, the Government will provide a further €1 billion upfront to each bank, in addition to the €2 billion it has already resolved to provide if they indicate they have no prospect of raising the money from private investors. The paper says the collapse in their shares suggests this is not now possible.

***

RUMOURS OF STAKE-BUILDING IN AIB - The Irish Independent says the Government's resolve in sticking with its recapitalisation plan for AIB and Bank of Ireland has been strengthened by deposits remaining stable this week even as their share prices collapsed.

The paper says AIB's share-price recovery in recent days has been underpinned by strong market rumours of stake building in the group, where well over a fifth of its shares have changed hands so far this week.

The Indo quotes banking and government sources as saying yesterday that the country's main banks experienced no significant deposit losses this week.

The paper also quotes market sources as saying they had seen convincing evidence, on analysing trading patterns, of a 'big buyer' of AIB shares over the past two days. 'We believe someone has acquired a 3% to 4% stake in the group,' the Indo quotes a senior Dublin stockbroker as saying.

ranger4

wyndham wrote: »

GOVERNMENT TO SPEED UP BANKS MOVE? - The Irish Times reports that the Government is preparing to bring forward the recapitalisation of AIB and Bank of Ireland in a concerted effort to convince the markets neither will be nationalised.

The paper says the possibility that the weakest loans on the books of both banks will be transferred into the newly nationalised Anglo Irish Bank is also on the table.

AIB and Bank of Ireland were to be recapitalised before the end of March under the original Government plan. Following the collapse of their shares since the decision to take Anglo into public ownership last week, the Irish Times says Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan is now likely to release State money into the banks much sooner.

In line with the original terms of the plan, the Government will provide a further €1 billion upfront to each bank, in addition to the €2 billion it has already resolved to provide if they indicate they have no prospect of raising the money from private investors. The paper says the collapse in their shares suggests this is not now possible.

***

RUMOURS OF STAKE-BUILDING IN AIB - The Irish Independent says the Government's resolve in sticking with its recapitalisation plan for AIB and Bank of Ireland has been strengthened by deposits remaining stable this week even as their share prices collapsed.

The paper says AIB's share-price recovery in recent days has been underpinned by strong market rumours of stake building in the group, where well over a fifth of its shares have changed hands so far this week.

The Indo quotes banking and government sources as saying yesterday that the country's main banks experienced no significant deposit losses this week.

The paper also quotes market sources as saying they had seen convincing evidence, on analysing trading patterns, of a 'big buyer' of AIB shares over the past two days. 'We believe someone has acquired a 3% to 4% stake in the group,' the Indo quotes a senior Dublin stockbroker as saying.

Can see aib back to 0.90-1.00 euro range next week.

ranger4

rugbyman wrote: »

to Ranger 4

I bought 2,000 AIB at 41 cent a few days ago. Can bank profit of 392 euro today. But I intend to hold on. I am a big believer in taking profits but I feel that AIB is the safest (?) bank in Ireland.

Daveirl aked

Is AIB at 99c still a buy?

Dave did not indicate whether he thought they were or not. he just put the question to a poster whose reasoning he disagreed with.

I think yes. Davys notes yesterday indicated that their Polish bank alone was worth twice the parents market capitalisation.



Regards,Rugbyman

Heres to you making a killing with aib, I bought back at 0.55 also bought boi this morn and sold on the early side but still made some profit, with the government trying to reasure the markets by saying it doesnt intende to nationlize aib-boi seems to be bringing some stability to the banks and with the recent volumes especialy with aib stock investors are buying, I wonder if the government will bring the recap date forward by much? can defo see aib back to 1 euro range soon. Regards ranger4.

rugbyman

ranger4 wrote: »

Heres to you making a killing with aib, I bought back at 0.55 also bought boi this morn and sold on the early side but still made some profit, with the government trying to reasure the markets by saying it doesnt intende to nationlize aib-boi seems to be bringing some stability to the banks and with the recent volumes especialy with aib stock investors are buying, I wonder if the government will bring the recap date forward by much? can defo see aib back to 1 euro range soon. Regards ranger4.

Hardly a killing with my stake, but I reckon a tidy sum. When all the dust settles on the worst collapse in 80 years, there will still be people living here, with all their needs. AIB, chastened, will be there. I wish i had had bigger liathroid.

ranger4

rugbyman wrote: »

Hardly a killing with my stake, but I reckon a tidy sum. When all the dust settles on the worst collapse in 80 years, there will still be people living here, with all their needs. AIB, chastened, will be there. I wish i had had bigger liathroid.

Do you think the recap date will be brought forward from the end of the first quarter as has been reported, Also i would imagine if anglo was to be used as a so called "toxic bank" for the reported bad aib and boi loans that this would be seen as possitive for the two banks, Are you leaving you aib buy into and beyond recap date.

rugbyman

Ranger,
I know very little. From all that I read, no one else does.
Regards,Rugbyman

pocketdooz

I'm surprised some of the people here still have any money, or any inclination, to still trade these stocks after (claiming to have been) buying all the way down from when they were at €5 a share and more, yet they still seem to be making money.

going long on a falling stock and still making money ?

you guys are really good



.

Idu

Apparently its not a losing position until you actually liquidate the position. Until then it's averaging/pyramiding/portfolio building

ranger4

pocketdooz wrote: »

I'm surprised some of the people here still have any money, or any inclination, to still trade these stocks after (claiming to have been) buying all the way down from when they were at €5 a share and more, yet they still seem to be making money.

going long on a falling stock and still making money ?

you guys are really good



.

clawd back most of my aib Loss, Still holding some aib bought earlier today.

Idu

ranger4 wrote: »

clawd back most of my aib Loss, Still holding some aib bought earlier today.

Didnt you say you were staying out of banks for the next six months and advise someone to do the same?

ranger4

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

Didnt you say you were staying out of banks for the next six months and advise someone to do the same?

Couldnt resist, bought some aib at 0.45 and more this morn probably sell before recap date. As regard to buy with irish stocks i mentioned crh and ryanair.

aoraki

I generally find with gamblers that they will talk to you until the cows come home about all the bets where they've "won". Of course they will never mention all the bets where they've lost... which in the majority of cases greatly outnumbers the winning bets... :pac:

pocketdooz

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

Apparently its not a losing position until you actually liquidate the position. Until then it's averaging/pyramiding/portfolio building

lol - apparantly not !

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

User Name.

Yea, economist, I'm pretty sure Gavin was referring to his age, not at what price he would like to see their (aib) shares at, when he mentioned 18! Not so smart from "economist". Seems u were right though about snipey comments! Congrats!

rugbyman

"That's why I can't understand people here trying to claim they know what they are doing when they are day trading these things."

I dont recall reading anybodys posts on here or on these threads ,where they claimed to know what they are doing.


" You are punting around admit it."

Absolutely!, punting ,gambling,investing all variants of the same thing

Regards,Rugbyman

User Name.

At the moment aib are at 76c and is worth buying as it will rise again. I bought a thousand euros worth of shares on wednesday and have already made about 50 quid. Not much but as I said it should still go up.

Time Magazine

User Name. wrote: »

Yea, economist, I'm pretty sure Gavin was referring to his age, not at what price he would like to see their (aib) shares at, when he mentioned 18! Not so smart from "economist". Seems u were right though about snipey comments! Congrats!

Good contribution to the site on your first post. I'm sure in time you'll come to be able to question other posters' intelligence while simultaneously getting their name right in the same sentence.

rugbyman

Hello User Name

you are welcome on Boards.

regards ,Rugbyman

Idu

rugbyman wrote: »

Hello User Name

you are welcome on Boards.

regards ,Rugbyman

Are you just here to wind people up? Why would you post that?

Time Magazine

Joc, rugbyman is right to welcome User Name. I can't say I'm his biggest fan, but it's no harm to be friendly.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

pocketdooz

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Dave

In my opinion you are wasting your time trying to explain - as good an explanation as it is.

There are only so many times you flog a dead horse.


.

User Name.

Well I'm certainly hoping so, cheers.

And an actual sincere thanks to rugbyman.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

ranger4

when this financial crises is over and profit starts returning to banks would dividend payments start to be made by banks by first quarter of profit?

Villain

90 cent nice profit those you Gambled last week

homer911

There is a rumour starting to circulate that a certain Irish Business Man has been building a stake in AIB and is up to 12%, but I thought an investor had to declare an interest which exceeded 3%, so maybe the rumour is rubbish!

pocketdooz

It's probably Sean Quinn. Sure he made a killing on his Anglo stake . . .


.

-mr.x-

BUFFET is coming

Raskolnikov

homer911 wrote: »

There is a rumour starting to circulate that a certain Irish Business Man has been building a stake in AIB and is up to 12%, but I thought an investor had to declare an interest which exceeded 3%, so maybe the rumour is rubbish!

Liam Carroll, Sean Quinn and several other Irish businessmen have used CFD's to build up stakes in listed companies.

Heraldoffreeent

heard it was Dermot Desmond.

wyndham

homer911 wrote: »

There is a rumour starting to circulate that a certain Irish Business Man has been building a stake in AIB and is up to 12%, but I thought an investor had to declare an interest which exceeded 3%, so maybe the rumour is rubbish!

That was me. Bought a tenners worth every day last week.

ranger4

wyndham wrote: »

That was me. Bought a tenners worth every day last week.

well done your in profit.:D

Bob Hope

Out my trading shares at 1.20 (short term target hit) today. Congrats to Rugbyman et al who made a profit. Excellent job.

“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!” DewD on Ihub

ranger4

Bob Hope wrote: »

Out my trading shares at 1.20 (short term target hit) today. Congrats to Rugbyman et al who made a profit. Excellent job.

“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!” DewD on Ihub

Out bit early yesterday, probably see profit taking today and price fall back to 1.00-1.10 range.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Qwertysurf

Hey. Ok, so I have never traded in my life. When I saw AIB shares at 60c I felt it was well worth a gamble. I have been desperately trying to get an account open to trade shares and it will be tomorrow or day after before my transfer of 5,000 has gone through and I can trade.
Meanwhile the shares have gone from 60c to 120c. Had I managed to buy at 60c I would have sold half my shares which would have returned my inital investment and the rest I would have left as a free long term gamble. Now I am wondering is the opportunity for the quick killing (as reward for risking all) now gone?
Do people feel they will now just settle and fluctuate slightly or is there still room for increasing shares?
In summary, have I lost my chance in the last few days or is there still a killing to be made is I am willing to take the risk of nationalistaion. Advice appreciated

Idu

Qwertysurf wrote: »

Hey. Ok, so I have never traded in my life. When I saw AIB shares at 60c I felt it was well worth a gamble. I have been desperately trying to get an account open to trade shares and it will be tomorrow or day after before my transfer of 5,000 has gone through and I can trade.
Meanwhile the shares have gone from 60c to 120c. Had I managed to buy at 60c I would have sold half my shares which would have returned my inital investment and the rest I would have left as a free long term gamble Now I am wondering is the opportunity for the quick killing (as reward for risking all) now gone?
Do people feel they will now just settle and fluctuate slightly or is there still room for increasing shares?
In summary, have I lost my chance in the last few days or is there still a killing to be made is I am willing to take the risk of nationalistaion. Advice appreciated

So do you want the long term or the quick killing? Would help answer the question

stepbar

Qwertysurf wrote: »

Hey. Ok, so I have never traded in my life. When I saw AIB shares at 60c I felt it was well worth a gamble. I have been desperately trying to get an account open to trade shares and it will be tomorrow or day after before my transfer of 5,000 has gone through and I can trade.
Meanwhile the shares have gone from 60c to 120c. Had I managed to buy at 60c I would have sold half my shares which would have returned my inital investment and the rest I would have left as a free long term gamble. Now I am wondering is the opportunity for the quick killing (as reward for risking all) now gone?
Do people feel they will now just settle and fluctuate slightly or is there still room for increasing shares?
In summary, have I lost my chance in the last few days or is there still a killing to be made is I am willing to take the risk of nationalistaion. Advice appreciated

What would you have done (having bought at 60 cent) when the share price fell from 60 to 30 cent in the space of 2 days? Would you have sweated?