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champions leauge again

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    #62
    holdemfoldem
    Registered Users Posts: 268 ✭✭holdemfoldem


    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    Eh, is this a windup?
    In the situation you've outlined the €13 profit is not just value, its absolutely stonkingly brilliant value, its ~15% profit per bet which is punting paradise.

    15% profit per bet? assuming all your 80/1 bets win i would agree.. thats laughable.. it would be 16 cent per bet if you won the expected 1 in 81 if you won 81 out of 81 you would most probably be some kind of god and i would recommend the lotto ( now theres a value bet ha )


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    #63
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,298 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    holdemfoldem wrote: »
    15% profit per bet? assuming all your 80/1 bets win i would agree.. thats laughable.. it would be 16 cent per bet if you won the expected 1 in 81 if you won 81 out of 81 you would most probably be some kind of god and i would recommend the lotto ( now theres a value bet ha )

    You've lost me. I meant that if you won just the 1 in 81 but were getting 94/1 all the time you would be winning ~15% per bet.
    And that this would indeed be a stonking great return.

    How much do you think its actually possible to win at this game? The very very best punters out there, the guys who do hours of daily research, statistical analysis, number crunching before deciding if a bet is good (people like Nick Mordin and Kevin Pullein) - these people are looking to maintain a return of about 7% profit per bet.


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    #64
    Ace2007
    Registered Users Posts: 19,678 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    Lao Lao wrote: »
    I fail to see how backing the favourites is -EV long term.

    Talking like this in the gambling fourm is going to lose so many people....


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    #65
    holdemfoldem
    Registered Users Posts: 268 ✭✭holdemfoldem


    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    You've lost me. I meant that if you won just the 1 in 81 but were getting 94/1 all the time you would be winning ~15% per bet.
    And that this would indeed be a stonking great return.

    How much do you think its actually possible to win at this game? The very very best punters out there, the guys who do hours of daily research, statistical analysis, number crunching before deciding if a bet is good (people like Nick Mordin and Kevin Pullein) - these people are looking to maintain a return of about 7% profit per bet.

    I think we mis-understood each other here.. but your point that the return on one win would be a stonking one isn't really relevant. it would be a stonking return if the bet was only 80/1 as well would it not? ( 80 times your €1 ) so how does an extra €13 euro if beyond all possibilities you hit your bet equal good value. check out the odds on the next big golf tourney ( british open etc ), at least a quarter of the entrants will be astronomical prices ie 500/1 with less than 500 in the tourney you would class this as a value bet yeah? but its not value if they have pretty much no chance of winning in the first place.


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    #66
    premierstone
    Registered Users Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    holdemfoldem wrote: »
    I think we mis-understood each other here.. but your point that the return on one win would be a stonking one isn't really relevant. it would be a stonking return if the bet was only 80/1 as well would it not? ( 80 times your €1 ) so how does an extra €13 euro if beyond all possibilities you hit your bet equal good value. check out the odds on the next big golf tourney ( british open etc ), at least a quarter of the entrants will be astronomical prices ie 500/1 with less than 500 in the tourney you would class this as a value bet yeah? but its not value if they have pretty much no chance of winning in the first place.

    That doesnt mean to say that there isnt a guy in there at 500/1 who isnt great value though, it does happen and goin back to the original bet its not that its only 6 results = 94/1 that makes the bet good or bad value its if the odds of them 6 results in reality should be lower or higher


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    #67
    thedini
    Registered Users Posts: 857 ✭✭✭thedini


    holdemfoldem wrote: »
    I think we mis-understood each other here.. but your point that the return on one win would be a stonking one isn't really relevant. it would be a stonking return if the bet was only 80/1 as well would it not? ( 80 times your €1 ) so how does an extra €13 euro if beyond all possibilities you hit your bet equal good value. check out the odds on the next big golf tourney ( british open etc ), at least a quarter of the entrants will be astronomical prices ie 500/1 with less than 500 in the tourney you would class this as a value bet yeah? but its not value if they have pretty much no chance of winning in the first place.
    what are you talking about in realtion to the golf. of course a golfer is value if his true odds are less than 500/1 but you can get 500/1 also it usually has nothing to do with the amount of entrants even though you mention 500 entrants.


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    #68
    jArgHA
    Registered Users Posts: 1,278 ✭✭✭jArgHA


    any chance of moving yer discussion to another thread? it's OT and is spoiling this thread.


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    #69
    Bobeagleburger
    Registered Users Posts: 45,266 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger


    jArgHA wrote: »
    any chance of moving yer discussion to another thread? it's OT and is spoiling this thread.

    +1

    Its ruining the thread.

    Get a room lads


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    #70
    Allah Hu Akbar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 218 ✭✭Allah Hu Akbar


    Going for Chelsea -1 tonight 5/4 with PP.


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    #71
    ErinGoBrath
    Registered Users Posts: 2,344 ✭✭✭ErinGoBrath


    Chelsea/Barca double for me


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    #72
    jArgHA
    Registered Users Posts: 1,278 ✭✭✭jArgHA


    jArgHA wrote: »
    Barca / Chelsea / Inter Treble @ 6/4 on Betfair -
    I can't see this not working out based on form (could be famous last words) so will be throwing a few bob on it.

    Get in there! Chelsea giving me a scare for most of their match, which was nowhere as clear cut as I expected it to be. Also Inter scraping a 1-0..


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    #73
    Bobeagleburger
    Registered Users Posts: 45,266 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger


    cheers Chelsea and Inter. Made me sweat though !;)


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    #74
    T-b0n3
    Registered Users Posts: 3,459 ✭✭✭T-b0n3


    Had a few random accumulators, this would have paid out just under 500 - 1!! :(

    €1.00 To Win - Accumulator (11)

    Atletico Madrid v Liverpool
    Draw
    3.25 Win
    - Basel v Barcelona
    Barcelona
    1.50 Win
    - Bordeaux v CFR Cluj
    Bordeaux
    1.72 Win
    - Chelsea v Roma
    Chelsea
    1.44 Win
    - Fenerbahce v Arsenal
    Fenerbahce
    3.50 Lose
    - Inter Milan v Anorthosis Famagusta
    Inter Milan
    1.16 Win
    - Juventus v Real Madrid
    Juventus
    2.87 Win
    - Leeds v Leyton Orient
    Leeds
    1.44 Win
    - Man Utd v Celtic
    Man Utd
    1.25 Win
    - Reading v Doncaster
    Reading
    1.36 Win
    - Villarreal v AAB Aalborg
    Villarreal
    1.20 Win


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    #75
    d-gal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭d-gal


    Had a nice accum of barce, inter, chelsea and bordeaux - 4/1


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    #76
    holdemfoldem
    Registered Users Posts: 268 ✭✭holdemfoldem


    jArgHA wrote: »
    any chance of moving yer discussion to another thread? it's OT and is spoiling this thread.

    sorry lads, im finished with it...

    no more OT from me..

    on topic.. chelsea 1-0! they played brutal.. ruined a few bets for -1


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